Streaming Statistics

HITS ARE GETTING SMALLER

There’s an article by Anne Steele in today’s “Wall Street Journal” about the lack of new tracks in the hit parade.

“The Song of the Summer Could Be Harry Styles, Jack Harlow, or Even Something From 2020 – The popularity of older songs, due to nostalgic listeners or TikTok trends, makes the ubiquitous summer jam harder to break through”: https://on.wsj.com/3M8sUsO

No, you can’t read it for free, you get what you pay for, and there are two tiers of people in music, insiders and outsiders, and they’ve got two completely different viewpoints based on information. I’ll get to that below.

But as far as tracks taking longer to make it, and staying longer once they do, that’s been well-known for years in the music industry.

But it’s the statistics that caught my eye here.

2019’s most streamed act, Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” garnered in excess of one billion streams.

“Roddy Ricch’s “The Box” was the biggest streaming track of 2020, with 920 million streams.

As for last year’s biggest smash, Dua Lipa’s “Levitating,” it was streamed a grand total of 627 million times.

And:

“In 2018, the top 200 songs were responsible for nearly one in 10 of all streams; in 2021, that metric fell to less than 1 in 20, according to Luminate. Last year, 95,000 songs hit one million streams, a 36% increase over 2018.”

Sure, there’s more money in hits, both in actual streaming payments and possibly the penumbra, i.e. touring, merch, sponsorships, etc. But music streaming is turning into television streaming, there’s so much product that nothing is as big as it used to be.

In other words, what the press tells you is ubiquitous is far from it, or at least has less impact than ever before.

But it gets even worse. Because the above are the raw streaming numbers, the chart numbers are manipulated, they include “sales.” But there are almost no sales. Sales might generate revenue, but they do not generate impact. It’d be like including DVD sales in a chart of what is the most popular movie… Almost all of the consumption is on television, streaming. So you get a skewed impression.

And the dirty little secret is some of the “biggest” acts in the business are not. You see they manipulate sales, with multiple versions of the same album and more to go to number one, and then their label spams the brain dead world of entertainment media, which repeats these numbers with no investigation whatsoever, giving a completely inaccurate view of what are the biggest acts out there, at least in terms of consumption, and that’s the world we now live in, actually it’s the world we always lived in, that which is listened to most delivers the most in return. Think of all the albums that went to number one the first week out and then straight into the dumper. There were no hit singles, the act might have even canceled its tour because of low demand.

But that’s what it’s like living in the disinformation society.

THERE IS NO FIXED PER TRACK PAYMENT ON STREAMING

Why this falsehood persists amongst the hoi polloi is completely confounding. It’s very simple. You divide the total amount of distributable income by the total number of streams. You end up with a rate per stream, and then you multiply by the number of streams a track gets. But the numbers are continually changing, the pool of income and the pool of streams, and therefore the rate per stream constantly changes, it’s temporary. (Of course there are different payments for on demand streaming and streaming radio, but let’s not confuse the issue.) So, if more people are subscribed to one service and listen more, the ultimate per track payment, which constantly fluctuates, could be low whereas a less popular service, one with fewer subscribers who listen less, might pay more. But if you think that’s where you want to be, that the less popular service is the one that should be championed, you’re just plain wrong. It’s essentially impossible to get the same number of streams on the less popular service with the less active subscribers.

It’s math, and musicians tend not to be good with it.

But it’s also evidence of today’s gotcha society, where someone must be at fault, there must be a bogeyman.

And the truth is Spotify has the most subscribers, and they are the most active. So that’s where you want to be. Because the aggregate is more important than the individual. I.e. a hundred streams at a penny are worth more than ten at a nickel.

But, once again, there is no per stream number, whatsoever. Sure, you can calculate it for a certain payment cycle, but it’s a factor of how many subscribers there were and what they were listening to.

Today there’s a lengthy story in the “Los Angeles Times” about how social media scares pregnant women with incorrect information:

“How Instagram and TikTok prey on pregnant women’s worst fears”: https://lat.ms/3t8oF9U

But it gets worse, the same people propagating this false information tell you not to trust mainstream media because it’s inherently biased and inaccurate. And the truth is the big three, the NYT, WSJ and WaPo, sometimes get it wrong. But they are light years more accurate than what you’re reading on social media. And if they get it wrong, intentionally, they’re liable to be sued.

So chances are what you believe is totally wrong, based on online spin/nonsense.

But those on the inside know the score.

History Of Cream-This Week On SiriusXM

Tune in today, May 31st, to Volume 106, 7 PM East, 4 PM West.

Phone #: 844-6-VOLUME, 844-686-5863

Twitter: @lefsetz or @siriusxmvolume/#lefsetzlive

Hear the episode live on SiriusXM VOLUME: siriusxm.us/HearLefsetzLive

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app: siriusxm.us/LefsetzLive

Ari Emanuel’s Wedding

“Page Six”: https://pge.sx/3wZFeqQ

“People”: https://bit.ly/3z5We05 

TMZ: https://bit.ly/3aoj1tP

This is just plain ugly.

Did Ari not consider the optics on this?

You may be unaware, but everybody who follows gossip and WME’s clients are, and now you know too.

So what we’ve got here is an exponent of the Reagan years, when it became all about money and you were proud to be rich. As for the little people…SCREW ‘EM!

In case you haven’t been following the game, the talent agencies have all taken private equity money, not only to grow their assets in a changing entertainment world, but to deliver a handsome payout for the execs.

I mean how do you feel about this if you’re a rank and file WME employee? How do you feel if you’re a client?

WME has fought the writers. Yup, the agency waned to triple-dip, represent the talent, take a packaging fee and own the production too. There have been concessions there, but one thing is for sure, these big talent agencies are no longer talent friendly, BECAUSE THAT’S NOT WHERE THEY MAKE ALL THEIR MONEY!

Yes, the UFC is WME’s cash cow, not movie stars.

And as a manager in Blackwell’s book told his bands…don’t smile in photos, no one has sympathy for a self-satisfied moneyed rock star. You’re supposed to be a man (or woman) of the people. When you lord your status above others…you’ve got today’s music business, uneducated nincompoops who are court jesters to the corporations who pay their bills. They think they’re ripping off the Fortune 500 when just the opposite is true, the Fortune 500 are using their names to make bank and depleting the credibility and lifespan of these acts, which are too stupid to understand this. As for their handlers? They don’t think long term, acts come and go, they want to get paid NOW!

Dig in a bit and you find out the wedding took place at the end of the Cannes Film Festival. But does Ari usually deign to attend these minor events? He’s got people for that. And even if he did go, you know that Larry David, Diddy, Elon Musk, Emily Ratajkowski and so many of the others did not. No, they all flew in. And if you think they flew in the back of the plane on a commercial airline…I guess you’ve never flown private.

Yes, if you own your own plane, or have access to one, you save so much time. I mean who wants to get to the airport hours in advance to go through security when you can just walk up and get on and take off?

But it gets even worse, the 61 year old Ari married a 32 year old. You’re not going to find a woman over thirty who approves of this, and if they’re older…they can’t get cast in productions unless they’ve had plastic surgery to look decades younger.

And we know this isn’t going to last. I mean what do you talk about to a woman who is thirty years younger. Oh Sarah, do you remember “The Brady Bunch,” never mind “All in the Family”? And MTV? MTV stopped playing videos by time Sarah Staudinger gained consciousness.

And Ms. Staudinger is a clothing designer. Remember when Henry Kravis married designer Carolyne Roehm? That didn’t last. Kravis is now married to economist Marie-Josée Drouin, someone who understands what he’s talking about, who he can bounce ideas off of, who is only six years younger. What is Ari going to ask Sarah about, the Kardashians?

But this is Ari’s trophy. He thinks the rest of the guys are envious. When the truth is the rest of his cabal are so narcissistic they don’t care who Ari is married to, they just care about themselves. So the joke is on Ari.

And what about Ari’s children? Kids have a hard time accepting new parents who are their contemporaries.

So what you do here if you’re smart, if you can see the landscape (which theoretically is what Ari is paid to do), is you get married by a judge, in his chambers, or in your house or backyard, and if you invite anybody, it’s a very small group of friends at most.

Or you don’t get married at all. I mean why? To have more children at 61? To give Sarah some security? Marriage is not the only way to do this, and I’m sure the prenup took months to negotiate.

I mean how detached can you be?

Sure, Ari may not have asked for this publicity, but at the end of Cannes in St. Tropez? The paparazzi live for events like this.

Used to be you got rich and you hid your wealth. Now you show off. Why? It doesn’t endear you to your customers. Hey Ari! Your agents better take a haircut, I’ll pay you less than 5% as opposed to the usual 10, you don’t need the money.

I mean Emanuel could have utilized the money and publicity for good. Like agitating for eliminating smoking from movies and TV shows, and assault rifles from the same productions. But no one cares about others today, they just care about themselves.

And you’ve got to realize times change. Trump’s moment is passing. I don’t care if you’re a MAGA believer, he can’t sell out a building, even if he’s giving the tickets away, and the candidates he endorses are no longer sure shots. Ari was cool when he was an unknown, when people found out the Jeremy Piven character in “Entourage” was based on him. But now Ari’s been in “The New Yorker”…his publicity people, and believe me, all of these big execs have one, if not a team, have gotten him in all these outlets, to impress…I’m not sure, maybe Wall Street, investors, but now the average person knows who Ari is and this wedding is just laughable on all counts.

Ari should just be glad people’s memories are short.

And he’s already got the $308 million he banked when WME went public.

Ari is what’s wrong with America.

Unfortunately, he’s not the only one.

The Chris Blackwell Book

“The Islander: My Live in Music and Beyond”: https://amzn.to/3wV6iI0

1

He’s no Clive Davis…

But that’s a good thing!

As a matter of fact, when most people were being influenced by the music Blackwell brought to the world, they had no idea who he was. After all, in the U.S. Island records were distributed by a cornucopia of labels, and if the company’s logo appeared on the label, it was tiny.

Did you know that “Back in the High Life” was an Island record?

You have no idea how big that album was unless you were conscious back in ’86 when it hit the airwaves, when oldsters became uncomfortable watching Steve Winwood “dance” in the ubiquitous video for “Higher Love.” But today when I hear that John Robinson intro I start to smile. Actually when I think of the song I hear that drum intro in my head. Do you know who JR is? Check him out: https://bit.ly/3POEYCD

That was the difference between “Back in the High Life” and the two Winwood solo albums that came before, which he essentially did all by himself. 

1977’s “Steve Winwood,” was unjustly ignored when it was released, then again at that time the music scene was inundated with sounds, and FM had become playlisted, the equivalent of Top 40. And Winwood even rapped in “Time Is Running Out,” not that he gets any credit.

After licking the wounds of this commercial failure, Winwood returned with “Arc of a Diver” in 1980, which yielded a hit single, “While You See a Chance,” and prodigious sales and I play “Night Train” all the time, to this day.

But the follow-up, “Talking Back to the Night,” yielded a minor hit with “Valerie,” but was considered to be a disappointment after the huge success of “Arc of a Diver,” and his albums now being released through Warner Brothers he could work with Russ Titelman who freshened the sound, brought in all the New York players, and turned Steve Winwood into a superstar, when that meant everybody in the world knew your name, at this point Tom Freston had brought MTV around the globe. Today you can reach everybody via the internet, but getting them to listen, to pay attention? That’s nearly impossible.

And then having had this huge success, Winwood ankled Island for Virgin, where he proceeded to release ever less successful albums, both artistically and commercially. Maybe he needed Chris Blackwell.

Yes, Chris Blackwell signed Steve Winwood, as part of the Spencer Davis Group. And it’s not like other labels were clamoring to make a deal, like there was a big bidding war, the band was hiding in plain sight, you just had to find them. And Blackwell did, when the major labels were to a great degree asleep at the wheel, at least in the U.K.

Forget “Gimme Some Lovin'”…

Then again you can’t forget it, that’s just the point. Clive Davis keeps telling us how great he is, the promo is endless, he’s got to have his party  at the Grammys, as if the cutting edge was ever recognized by that male-driven out of touch organization, but as far as remembering all the music he released, when he had total control at Arista and J? Well, there’s Whitney Houston… And maybe those Patti Smith records in the initial days. You see Clive specialized in hit singles, Blackwell specialized in albums. And a great number of those albums are part of the classic rock canon and are still listened to today.

It all started with “My Boy Lollipop.” Then again you don’t get to the Millie Small smash until about sixty pages in. There’s a good overview of the scene in Chris’s homeland of Jamaica first, almost all of which is unknown by the average person.

As for “My Boy Lollipop”… We had that single. I didn’t know Chris was responsible for years!

But this was a different Chris, a svengali, like Clive, and he realized that was a fool’s errand, better to focus on the music than the image, because the hit singles business was always an uphill climb.

So who did Blackwell sign?

Well, there was Cat Stevens, and King Crimson, Roxy Music, Free, Grace Jones, Robert Palmer, Melissa Etheridge and that underrated band from Ireland, U2. And you have heard of Bob Marley and the Wailers, haven’t you?

Clive may have had singles in the hit parade, but usually that’s not where the action was. Do you remember Marianne Faithfull’s “Broken English”? What a surprise that was, angelic beauty returns as hard-edged croaker with an undeniable cut that was anything but me-too, I can remember roller-skating to it at Flipper’s. You can’t listen without nodding your head, yet it’s anything but mindless dance music.

Oh, did I say that Blackwell produced a good amount of this music? He had no technical training, he just tried to steer the artists to deliver their essence. Oftentimes he said nothing, just sat there in the control room smoking a spliff. Then again, he was the one who toughened up the Wailers’ sound, to appeal to the rock world.

And unlike Clive, Blackwell gives credit to others. Dave Robinson for turning Marley into the cultural icon he ultimately became, Nick Stewart for U2. That’s right, Blackwell believed in people. They generated the music, not him. Blackwell enabled artists to go on a journey, as opposed to demanding instant hits.

2

Oldsters are constantly complaining that young sports stars know nothing about history, especially in baseball.

It’s even worse in the music business. Today’s hitmakers believe the business began with Napster, disrupting what once was so new acts could flourish on the internet.

But if you were conscious before this…

The music business was a haven of scrappy individualists who proffered hit singles. Sure, there were majors, but like I referenced above, they were often behind the times, and anything but nimble. The business didn’t really enter the future, really blow up, become solidified, until Steve Ross purchased Elektra and Atlantic at the end of the sixties and then created Warner’s own distribution arm, WEA, in 1972. Back then music made more than movies and was uber-profitable. You see music scales like no other entertainment medium. You make the record and thereafter your costs are de minimis. Sure, most of the records stiff, but there are ones that sell millions, that rain down cash, which is why Steve Ross wanted in.

And it was clear that the artists were in charge. You made a deal, they delivered your record, oftentimes without interference, and then you had to put it out. And successful artists made more than almost anybody at the label. Today it’s reversed.

But then in 1979 it all started to crumble, but MTV and CDs caused a renaissance with untold riches, music was raining dough. You didn’t seek endorsements, you didn’t have to! You were making so much money!

Today there are only three major label groups.

There used to be six.

Just like there are two major concert promoters. You see the business is mature, consolidated. And therefore the excitement is elsewhere.

But back in the sixties…

And in the eighties, with all that new money, there were endless expansions, endless new labels, you had too many records to promote, you might as well create a new imprint, which labels constantly did.

But the seismic shock came when A&M and Island were sold to PolyGram. That’s over thirty years ago. Seems like a footnote, but back then it was unthinkable, incomprehensible, as were the payments to the owners of said indies, for Island $300 million.

But that was the beginning of the end for Blackwell. He chafed under the corporate umbrella and started anew at too big a level and failed, which he admits, and then became a real estate baron, renovating hotels in South Beach before selling them for money to build back in his homeland, Jamaica.

3

Blackwell literally says he’s a member of the lucky sperm club. And he delineates all of the above, in-depth. As for the man himself? You read all 320 pages of the book and he’s still a cipher.

Sure, he talks about his mother’s relationship with Ian Fleming, but we get even fewer details about his love life. He mentions wives, girlfriends, but you’re still not sure whether he’s got biological or step-kids.

Blackwell tells you what he did, and how he did it, but you don’t really get to know who he is.

Oh, he goes everywhere in his flip-flops. And shorts. Sans tie. That used to be the rock and roll ethos, the music spoke for you, if you made it you could dress however you wanted to, that was one of the privileges of making it outside the mainstream, being rich. Yet today, all the musicians want to sell clothes, and the execs are all dressed up.

And he has relationships with one babe after another. He’s a good-looking dude, but you don’t quite get his charm in this book. And you’ve got to be charming to be uber-successful as an entrepreneur, that’s what outsiders don’t understand, that’s one of Irving Azoff’s superpowers.

There’s talk of building Compass Point Studios, and creating a house band.

And there’s also reference to the label’s financial issues. Not having the cash to pay U2 royalties and giving them 10% of the label instead.

The business stories are all here. And a lot of the creative ones too. But who Chris is and what makes him tick? You can only infer.

And the money…

An independent doesn’t have deep pockets. Blackwell was selling himself, not attracting acts with cash. And like Winwood, Robert Palmer walked to EMI after Blackwell coddled and built him up, but like Winwood without Chris it wasn’t the same.

Yet then there’s the reference to buying property whenever he had a win. Well, how much money did Chris take out of Island? WHO KNOWS!

But what we do know is the Island story is ancient history.

But if you were there, you will enjoy getting an inside peek at the creation and workings of Island. And remember when a gig at the label was your heart’s desire. Just to be closer to the music.

Blackwell is an icon because the buck stopped with him, he could make a decision, he needed no approval, and he gave you enough money, room and time to do it your way, to find yourself.

And there are amazing insights. Free was wary of releasing “All Right Now,” for fear it would ruin the band. And it did!

U2 insisted on using Eno, a man Chris knew and had made many records with but was reluctant to agree to, after “War” because they were fearful of getting pigeonholed as a hit singles act. And it was “The Joshua Tree” that made them legends, and “Achtung Baby” delivered their bona fides. First time through you didn’t understand “Achtung Baby,” didn’t get it, and then like “Exile on Main Street” you realized it was one step beyond, SPECTACULAR!

And Asylum wouldn’t let Tom Waits release what became “Swordfishtrombones,” it was too out there, but he signed with Chris and became the revered Tom Waits he is today, before that he was just an out there singer-songwriter with a ragged voice, after signing with Island he became a cultural icon.

They don’t make them like Chris Blackwell anymore. Not in music anyway. Then again, you can make much more money in tech. And the heart and soul evidenced in the records is absent. It’s been commercialized. Funny how the further Chris and his brethren got from commerciality, from delivering me-too stuff that was expected, the more successful they became.

Blackwell is 84. Actually, he’ll be 85 next month. He survived, many did not.

And he got a longer run than most in this business, until just past 60.

You see the music business chews you up and spits you out. You’re hungry to have a seat at the table, you prove yourself, become inured to the benefits and then you get squeezed out without even realizing it.

And the man is in charge, the corporations, they’re publicly traded.

But it used to be different, and if you want to know how it was…

Read “The Islander.”