The legendary pollster talks about the war in Iran and more.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/john-zogby/id1316200737?i=1000753320394

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/0544db6a-d7a1-44eb-9a42-dbb228618290/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-john-zogby

I don’t see how Live Nation wins this, how Ticketmaster is not separated from the concert promotion division.

Now there was no jury involved in the government’s approval of the merger of Live Nation and Ticketmaster. It was only a matter of law. But if you’re sitting in the box and you’re hearing what the Barclays and Wild guys have to say…

The Live Nation attorneys look like nitpickers. It comes down to math, Barclays lost shows and the Wild was afraid of doing so. How exactly is Live Nation going to explain this away? Especially in light of the Rapino phone call.

And unlike twice before, don’t expect a consent decree. Been there, tried that, didn’t work. Human nature tells us that Live Nation is going to dangle the prospect of concerts or the lack thereof to whether a building has a Ticketmaster contract or not. This is classic leverage. As for the consent decree…yeah, right. Negotiation is always about leverage and the Live Nation employee couldn’t help herself in the e-mal to the Barclays guy, with the wink.

Now I’ve got to say that if this could have been settled on any reasonable terms, Live Nation would have done it. But obviously, the government wasn’t really going to negotiate, for it thought it would win, furthermore, it knew it had the benefit of public opinion on its side.

Of course there are going to be more witnesses, the trial is going to go on for weeks. But what exactly are they going to say? They’re going to go on about market share and competitors and there will be testimony as to what a great company Live Nation is and how Ticketmaster is a superior product, but this trial is about tying…tickets for concerts. And from the get-go, we see evidence of that.

Of course Live Nation doesn’t believe that. But all their arguments are dispassionate. Who cares if the Barclays guy did not have completely clean hands in his relationship with SeatGeek. The bottom line is he made a deal with SeatGeek and Barclays got fewer concerts. Forget the hogwash about their being a new UBS building on Long Island. Do you really think the jury is going to believe that argument?

And SeatGeek said it would make up for any loss of concert revenue for what is now called the Grand Casino building in Minnesota, offering retaliation insurance, but buildings are more than revenue, they are vibrant operations that glean benefits by hosting events, especially concerts.

So Live Nation couldn’t settle on reasonable terms. So its lawyers said to take it to trial. I hope those lawyers didn’t blow smoke, talking about the law as opposed to emotions and the jury. Live Nation rolled the dice.

And when they lose… Like I said, the government ain’t gonna offer no consent decree, it’s going to insist upon breakup.

Of course the trial will last weeks, and there will be additional testimony…but how are you going to undercut these examples, and more that come down the pike?

You never know until the jury makes a decision. But right now, after today’s testimony, I’d say Live Nation is f*cked.

Today’s testimony:

“New York Times”: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/arts/music/live-nation-trial-barclays-center.html

“The Verge”: https://apple.news/A8uOddvKqSzeq9G3H0gUoTQ

Dear Bob,

You are absolutely right.  Neil should have been inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame decades ago.

Thank-you for writing such lovely things about him.

Much love,

Elton

________________________________________

Hi Bob,

I’m sorry to be late getting this to you.

I first met Neil in 1972 prior to us (we weren’t yet 10cc) recording the Solitaire album with him at our Strawberry Studios.

Neil was working at the Batley Variety Club (The Las Vegas Of The North) at the time and I met him at his hotel in Leeds to listen to and make a recording of the songs that he proposed recording with us.

He was an absolute pleasure to work with, always well prepared and professional.

He would often sing the lead vocal live at the piano as we were recording the backing track with him and very rarely made a mistake.

He enjoyed working with us so much that he recorded another album, The Tra-La Days Are Over, after we had become 10cc in 1973.

It was an honour to know and work with him.

God rest his soul.

Graham Gouldman

“Mr. Hatch said fans paid $1.56 to $1.72 more for every ticket as a result of Live Nation’s ‘overcharge.’

‘We are talking,’ Mr. Hatch said, ‘about real money coming out of people’s wallets.'”

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/arts/music/live-nation-antitrust-trial.html

If you’re not laughing hysterically, you’re not in the music business, or you’re so invested in your anti-Live Nation viewpoint that you have no perspective.

Ticketmaster is the most hated company in America. Used to be the cable companies, but competition made them clean up their act. From Fios and T-Mobile, even Starlink… You don’t have to get your internet, never mind your television programs, from your cable company anymore. Will competition make Ticketmaster provide a better product?

Now let’s be clear, the cable companies’ product didn’t improve, its customer service did. So it begs the question, can Ticketmaster’s product be improved?

Newer platforms are designed from scratch, whereas Ticketmaster’s platform is built on spaghetti code, just like Microsoft Windows. Steve Jobs famously returned to Apple and built a whole new operating system based on Unix. As a result, it’s less creaky. But the truth is, despite all the artists and your friends using Macs, Windows machines dominate in the world, by far. Yes, what is seen as an inferior product, what is an inferior product, is established in the marketplace, never mind all the software written for Windows.

Now could one of Ticketmaster’s newer competitors deliver a superior product to venues?

Well, first and foremost they’d have to pay for the privilege. That’s how ticketing works. Kind of like slotting fees at the supermarket…yes, even the biggest companies pay to have their products on the shelves. So far, none of these fledgling outfits has ponied up monies in the big leagues of arenas and stadiums. For two reasons…they don’t have said money and they don’t have the capacity.

It’s not like AXS can do a significantly better job. The demand is just that great. Between rabid fans and secondary market bots, good luck getting a ticket.

Then again, fans believe they’re entitled to a ticket, even though we know this is impossible. For some of these acts demand outstrips supply by a multiple of double digits.

But could Ticketmaster’s product be improved? Everything can be improved. The question is whether it’s worth laying out all that money for a minor increment in quality.

And the dirty little secret is it comes down to business, and business is money. Nvidia just reported margins in excess of 70%! Whereas concert promotion has a margin of less than 5%.

To be specific, Live Nation’s concert promotion division has a margin of 3.3%. However, Ticketmaster has a margin of 37%. But the question is, if the playing field were leveled, would a new player enter the ticketing field? Is the margin high enough, is the upside high enough?

Like Live Nation, AEG promotes concerts and has its own ticketing outfit, the above-referenced AXS. However, not all AEG shows employ AXS, because buildings have contracts with Ticketmaster and…

Now I’m getting too far into the weeds.

The bottom line is everyone is blaming Ticketmaster for its fees, saying they raise concert prices. I could walk you through the economics, without the fees there is no show, but the government just let the cat out of the bag. No matter what happens, no matter what the result of this trial, even if Live Nation’s concert division and Ticketmaster are separated, TICKET PRICES WILL NOT GO DOWN!

Unless you consider less than two bucks to be a meaningful amount. You can’t even buy a soda, never mind merch for that amount. You can’t even take the subway to the gig.

So what this trial boils down to is what happens behind the scenes. Can Live Nation’s competitors gain a leg up. That’s all that’s being debated here. Bringing big bad Live Nation to its knees and making concert tickets cheaper is a fantasy, as is the concept that any result will make it easier for a citizen to get a ticket.

Now there are legal issues involved in this case. If there was a bench trial, I’d have more faith in the outcome. But when you have a jury…you never know what the result will be. And Live Nation looks bad to the jury, everybody knows the company and has an opinion. Now the judge gives instructions, making it more difficult to come up with a result that does not reflect the facts, but really…the jury could say anything, and if it rules against Live Nation…

This is what Live Nation is trying to avoid, they know a jury trial is a toss-up. That’s why they’ve been trying to settle.

And even if the jury rules against Live Nation, that does not necessarily mean the end of the case. There can be appeals. Possibly all the way to the Supreme Court if the judges decide to hear the case. Time can go by…but it costs a ton to appeal, which is why even if a judgment comes down against them Live Nation may settle with the government on better terms, promising not to appeal.

Live Nation pays venues to be its exclusive ticketing partner. The dirty little secret is other than possibly AXS, no other company truly has the capacity to do the job. As for the Taylor Swift “fiasco,” it’s her fault. Then again, Ticketmaster said yes to this fakokta decision to put all the tickets up at once for all the shows on the tour. Swift wanted the buzz, the momentum, and she got it. But in truth, NO COMPANY could have done a better job. The most desirable ticket in the world? This is a secondary market field day!

If we could start all over and not pay venues fees… But under what law do we make this happen? This may make it more fair for concert promoters, but removing money from the building? That’s a taking for no good reason.

As for Live Nation elbowing venues to use Ticketmaster so they get shows… This is a reason why this merger shouldn’t have been allowed in the first place. I don’t care what anybody says, it’s an unspoken element, especially when Live Nation has an alternative Ticketmaster building to play in.

So, there are issues of law and fact. But the ultimate decision will be made by a jury composed of people unfamiliar with both the law and the business, they are not experts.

Expect some heinous testimony to come out.

Expect Live Nation to argue the law.

Expect the jury to be swayed by emotion.

But don’t expect concert prices to come down in any meaningful way, not gonna happen. It’s supply and demand, the basic rule of business. The hotter the act, the more demand and the higher the price. And if the tickets don’t reflect value in the primary market, the secondary market will swoop in and gain the uplift, by charging what the tickets are really worth…which the public will pay, because people want to go to the show that much.

But people hate Ticketmaster anyway.

But if it is separated from Live Nation and a new competitor comes along…

Pete Townshend made the definitive statement back in 1971:

“Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”

As long as people want to go to the show, prices will be expensive.

Then again, there are many shows few want to see… Buy a ticket for that one, won’t you? No, you want to see the superstars. And get a good ticket for under a hundred bucks. But the bottom line is YOU’RE DREAMIN’!