These are the same analysts who predicted BlackBerry would survive and were surprised when it cratered overnight.

Yes, Steve Jobs built a behemoth. Yes, Apple has everybody’s credit card number. Yes, Jimmy Iovine built a headphone colossus.

BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN APPLE MUSIC WILL WIN IN THE END!

Let’s start with the canard that there will be competition, that multiple services will carve up the streaming marketplace. Why believe this when Google owns seventy percent of search? When Amazon dominates? Facebook too? The story of the internet is community, we all go to one towering trustworthy portal and every other outlet fights for scraps. Gonna happen in streaming music too.

As for the vaunted 15 million subscribers… Ever think that’s the ceiling? That Apple marketed to all of its customers and most didn’t want it? Which is a fact. Sure, the number of subscribers will increase, but there’s no hockey stick in evidence, none.

Because Apple is not cool.

There, I said it. Bands fade, why can’t brands?

It’s not worth dropping by the Apple Store, there’s nothing you haven’t seen before. And have you noticed the help there is glum and uninformed? As for Angela Ahrendts, can you tell me where the Buy button is on the Apple website? Where there used to be coherence, now there’s chaos, no one’s in charge, no one knows what’s going on, yet the press keeps giving them a pass.

As for the vocal acolytes… They’re working the refs, like the right wingers who’ll clamp down on you whenever you posit a left wing position online. Apple dominates almost nowhere. It doesn’t own the number one computing platform, nor the number one mobile phone OS… All it’s got is a ton of profits and dominance in file sales, yup, at the iTunes Store, an antiquated construct if there ever was one.

Jimmy Iovine failed once before, with the original Beats Music service. Sans a free tier, you’re screwed. Why should it be any different at Apple, because of the brand name? That’d be like saying we’ll pay for that which is free just because a famous company is involved. Study some economics, that’s just plain wrong.

And how and why should a record exec know anything about UIs? It’d be like asking Tim Cook to A&R an LP.

As for mixing files and streams in one interface, did everybody blank on Clayton Christensen? I thought “The Innovator’s Dilemma” was the Silicon Valle bible, can’t anybody in Cupertino read? Apple was protecting its past, which is anathema in tech.

So, Jimmy makes something out of nothing, the high end headphone business was a sideshow. So, he adds some sizzle and gets heroes to hype it. Well, streaming music was not a sideshow, Spotify already had traction. And so far, no no amount of exclusives seems to move the needle, not in any significant way. Hell, Taylor Swift isn’t even on Spotify, and that service is WINNING!

Because Spotify is cool. With lame marketing, it’s all about word of mouth. Subscribers double down and testify, they’re addicted. And they aren’t about to switch loyalties. And their evangelizing gains new adherents. Which is a much stronger bond than someone signing up for Apple Music because they’re so damn dumb they don’t know what else to do.

Amazon couldn’t win in phones, why should Apple win in streaming music?

And Netflix was nobody but so far it remains unchallenged. It’s the upstart people love, however much producers might abhor the payments and near-monopoly.

Pay attention to the newbies, who are nimble, who don’t have to protect legacy assets. Hell, didn’t that help Steve Jobs win? By axing legacy ports thinkers admired his pluck, his move into the future, it turns out those mired in the past lost, Apple triumphed.

I’d bet on Jimmy Iovine if he went back to the music business. He’s a charismatic closer. But he’s out of his depth here. As for the Beats victory, that’d be like saying a manager is great after only breaking one act, when everybody knows the true greats can do it over and over again.

Apple lost its edge. Its mojo. Bands can sell millions and their next project can completely tank. Because times changed, people have moved on.

And, people have moved on from the Tidal stars. It’s a worldwide business, those Tidal owners mean something, but far from everything.

And this is how far Apple has sunk, they can’t make it on their bona fides, they need help. It’d be like Shaggy having a singer on his record, like Wiz Khalifa depending upon Charlie Puth.

And now Spotify is running circles around Apple. Turns out algorithmic curation is better than the human kind, that’s the essence of Discover Weekly.

Apple Music is a me-too product not much different from the Zune, and the refusal of analysts and fanboys to see this is remarkable.

Apple may not buy Tidal, it might gain more subscribers, but dominance is a desire that will almost definitely go unfulfilled.

I could be wrong.

But if you look at tech track records it’s Daniel Ek who’s batting a thousand, not Jimmy Iovine. And if Tim Cook knows anything about tech, even marketing, he’s yet to demonstrate it. It’s as if the band was fronted by Lucien Grainge or some other exec. But no, we want our acts propelled by geniuses who we’ve become enthralled by.

And there are no geniuses at Apple Music.

As for Beats 1, it’s an utter failure. You know how I know why? Because if it was a success THEY’D TELL US!

That’s entertainment business 101.

But all we’ve got is crickets.

There’s no catalog business in tech. It’s all what have you done for me lately. And what Apple has done is deliver a bunch of bunts with absolutely no scoring. And the last time I checked, you need home runs, otherwise there’s no buzz, no future, that’s the story in tech, no one starts slowly.

But somehow this gang that can’t shoot straight will break all the rules and succeed?

Don’t make me laugh.

“House of Nails: A Memoir of Life on the Edge”

This book is so good you cannot put it down. You’ll stay up all night reading it, blowing off your networking breakfast as you learn the true rules of life, how the game is really played.

I don’t give a shit if you know nothing about baseball, as a matter of fact, the recitation of famous games and homers, however de minimis, is the worst part of the book. Sure, fans expect it, but it’s completely superfluous, unnecessary. The essence is Lenny’s personality and drive, he’s a true American and we live in America and if you want to succeed you’ll read it, and get it.

Growing up in Garden Grove, California, all Lenny wanted to do was play baseball. This was not an upper middle class denizen whose parents exposed him to multiple options to enrich him and provide opportunities, rather Lenny’s parents worked for the phone company and baseball was his ticket out, and goddamn if he wasn’t going to punch it.

I heard him on Howard Stern. He was mumbling but his stories were so utterly fascinating that when they said he had a book I had to check it out. Even Gary and Jon on the Wrap Up show, they couldn’t get over Lenny’s lingo, insider jargon, “Pearl Harbored,” so many terms you’ve never heard before that you get the gist of that Lenny does not explain.

This is kind of like Sammy Hagar’s autobiography, actually, they’re very similar. Both came from nothing and both struck it big, but the difference is Lenny doesn’t care if you like him or not, which is so refreshing in this Facebook/social media world where accumulating likes is a goal unto itself.

Can you speak your truth?

Few can, they’re ashamed, but after you’ve been to jail and lost everything you know that image is irrelevant, it’s who you truly are that counts.

And Lenny is a loyal guy who works the edges.

He hired a private investigator to get the dirt on umpires.

And for all the geeks talking about data, the Nate Silvers telling us how it really is, Lenny was deep into the numbers long before the internet and “Moneyball,” you play the odds and you play to win, because you want to get paid, otherwise you have to get a day job and report to a boss and that sucks.

DOESN’T IT!

You want to make it, you want to get ahead, what are the elements of success?

PERSONALITY! It’s a PEOPLE world. Stop venerating Mark Zuckerberg and the geeks, they got lucky, but the tech world has firmed up and if you want to make it you’ve got to have relationships, friends, and Lenny had plenty, from all walks of life. Whether it be a department store magnate in Amsterdam or Charlie Sheen.

Lenny makes Charlie come alive, pokes holes in the story being fed by the press. One individual has more power than any news outlet, any security force, assuming you have balls and are willing to sacrifice everything.

Which, of course, Lenny ultimately did. But he got to play the game, and you can’t take it with you, and what we’re enamored of most are the larger than life personalities who are fun to hang out with, who create trouble, the straws who stir the drink.

Like Lenny Dykstra.

Hate the man, but not the story. Which is told better than any music business memoir, any sports bio since Andre Agassi’s, and that’s one of the few good ones.

There are mistakes, some inconsistencies, but you believe this is who Dykstra is, the famous Nails, the hustler who did steroids and crashed his Mercedes yet came through in the clutch.

The first rule of entertainment is engagement. If we want to turn off your record, shut the cover of your book, you’ve already lost.

“House of Nails” is a winner. It’s not literature and for all I know it might not even be fact. But I like a guy who refuses to pull punches, who tells his truth, you’ll marvel at how Lenny excoriates Davey Johnson and so many players, lauding those he believes deserve it all the while.

There’s no buzz, but this book is a winner.

BUY IT!

Apple in Talks to Acquire Jay Z’s Tidal Music Service

It’s talent versus market share, old school versus new, Apple versus Spotify.

Despite a reputation for innovation, we’ve learned the internet is mostly about consolidation, establishing a paradigm and then conquering all comers. Amazon owns shopping, Google owns search, Facebook owns social networking and…what exactly does Apple own again?

It might be the world’s most valuable company, but it got that way via monopolies. First with portable music players. The iPod and FairPlay, remember that, its DRM?, and iTunes ultimately closed out all competitors.

And then came the iPhone and iPad. Which dominated through sheer innovation. Sure, there were smartphones before, but not with this level of sophistication. And the iPad was a whole new category. As for the Watch? Hmm…

That’s right, Apple dominated via hardware.

But it appears we’re evolving into a software world. And Apple is legendary for getting this wrong, with services, the original failed MobileMe and the disastrous first iteration of Apple Music. Google gets it right, Amazon too, but Apple? No.

And sure, the iPhone takes almost all of the handset profits, but the truth is products have a lifespan. No one uses Lotus 1-2-3 anymore, and even Windows is challenged. As for hardware… You’ve got a drawer full of stuff too antiquated to use, even though it might only be a couple of years old.

Apple Music is software.

But it’s run by an old school content guy. Reed Hastings is all about content, but he can talk innovation at the same time. Ditto Jeff Bezos. Jimmy Iovine is all about relationships, leveraging them to his advantage, is that a dead paradigm or will he win again?

Turns out no one cared that Adele’s “25” was not on streaming services. They could wait. This is scarier than the death of physical and files, if people don’t hunger for the latest music, we’re doomed.

Jimmy’s theory is exclusives will bond users to you, that the power of stars is unmatched.

But this didn’t work at Tidal, which you could subscribe to for the same price as Spotify (sure, there was a hi-res tier for $20 a month, but there was a low cost, lo-fi option also.) Which is more powerful, the content or the platform?

Hmm…

Apple’s exclusives haven’t put a dent in Spotify quite yet. But if Apple rolls up the Tidal exclusives too, that would be significant, would it impact Spotify?

Now we get to Elizabeth Warren, now we get to a completely different issue, which may be the death of the Cupertino company. Once you start leveraging your assets to the detriment of others, you’re in trouble, this is what hobbled Microsoft at the end of the century. Should Spotify really have to cough up 30% of its subscription revenue to Apple? That’s not fair in anybody’s book, that’s why the Swedish company is now making noise, with Senator Warren on its side. Apple has already blinked a bit, adjusting App Store payments downward in certain instances, but this looks like a cash grab, and when the public learns of this they side with the upstart, which is Spotify.

Spotify is miles ahead of Apple Music in not only paying subscribers, but usability and discovery and… Because, once again, Spotify is run by techies and Apple Music is run by old school Jimmy Iovine. Spotify has vision, Apple Music is about strong-arming insiders to its advantage, never mind the disadvantage of having no free tier.

So how’s it going to turn out?

I’m betting on Spotify. The history of the Internet is the innovator wins, especially if it continues to innovate. Microsoft couldn’t put a dent in AOL, and then it turned out both were superseded anyway.

We want to be where our friends are. Like Steve Jobs preached, we want usability, which Spotify has in spades compared to Apple Music, even if the former is imperfect. Apple Music LOOKS good, but looks are secondary to functionality.

But if Apple gets exclusives on all Tidal artists, builds from there, it could win. Because he with the hits wins in the end.

So, watch this movie.

And be appalled. That the leveling of the playing field we thought the internet would bring is being eviscerated. It’s like radio payola, independent promotion all over again. Sure, Apple might be paying the stars today, but the result is if you’re an up and comer you can’t get real estate on the home page. And, how long will it be before you pay to get real estate anyway?

Exclusives are not fan-friendly.

Then again, there’s a long history of them in the music business, remember how Best Buy helped put a dent in the indie store world?

We’re going in the wrong direction here folks.

But I will say that Jay Z might accomplish his goal, which is to get a big paycheck. In this case not by aggregating paying customers, but talent.

Fifteen years ago the music sphere was up for grabs, all hell was breaking loose.

Today, the doors are closing, the big boys are winning, power is being consolidated that will rule for years, all in the name of killing upstarts like YouTube and Spotify because they don’t pay enough.

Be careful what you wish for.

“Spotify says Apple won’t approve a new version of its app because it doesn’t want competition for Apple Music”

“Elizabeth Warren says Apple, Amazon and Google are trying to ‘lock out’ the competition”

He was coming in an F-150.

I’ve been driving the past two weeks, but Felice’s machine, you see mine is a stick and I’m not quite up to that, but today she needed her Lexus so I had to use Uber.

I’m always uptight about using Uber, especially when I need to be buckled in, I can’t put on the seatbelt myself.

And I’m always worried they won’t come up into the hills, so I book early, and when I saw he was driving a truck…WOULD I BE ABLE TO GET INSIDE?

You have no idea what it’s like having shoulder surgery, most of the pain is in the rearview mirror, although not all, but I can’t tie my shoes, can’t dress myself, can’t take a shower by myself… Now I know what it’s like being old, I’ve got a lot more tolerance and sympathy and respect for the aged and infirm and handicapped.

I wanted to cancel. But would I get charged?

You’ve got a five minute window.

But would I be blackballed, I need a five star rating, I need to get picked up without delay. And if I just re-requested would the same guy pick up the call? And time’s a-wastin’ and I’m becoming paralyzed and I tell myself I’m not buying the pickup truck, I’m only going for a one way ride, so I can make it work, I think…

Turns out there was a step. I didn’t think of that. You can never predict the future, best to put one foot forward, or up in this case, and just soldier on, but I’m so worried about possibilities and pitfalls I can’t get started, I can’t get out of my own way.

And the driver started to get out of the car, to engage my seatbelt, to shut my door, but I ended up being able to do those myself. It’s so hard for me to ask for help, I’d rather do it myself, no matter what the cost.

And the driver was wearing no shirt and the windows were down and I’d prefer the A/C but I was pretty ripe myself, not having showered, being home alone, so I rode with it.

And after issuing some directions I pondered, do I have to talk?

Uber is not new. It’s a service, you pay for it, you get to your destination. But I feel too guilty to sit in silence, I feel obligated to speak, I want the driver to like me, I want a good rating.

“So how long you been driving for?”

That’s always the initial question, the follow-up is “Do you like it?”

But I didn’t get that far in this case. Turns out he’d been doing it for six months, he was feeding his eight year old son’s basketball habit. The kid was in two leagues. And right now his regular business was slow.

“What’s your regular business?”

He turned out to be a personal trainer. With clients in the music business. Sometimes they pay him for six months and then go on tour, that’s the best of all possible worlds.

So I told him this was my world and I asked him who.

And he proffered some names I knew, he kept on coming up with people I knew, shocking how small the world truly is.

So now I figure I’ll learn something, find out about the personal trainer business.

And I did.

If you start from zero, you need five sessions a week. No one sticks to the plan alone, you need the guy there. It’s $35 an hour if he comes to your home, if he hikes with you it’s $60. You don’t need machines, he can make it work, it’s all about the client’s desire.

He said he went to school for it.

But when I asked him where, he uttered the name of a highly-respected Beantown institution and I’m reevaluating my opinion of him when he tells me that’s not where he learned how to be a physical trainer.

He graduated and came to L.A., to housesit for a well-known musician who he grew up with who was on the road. And after working at a financial institution he became sick of being indoors and took a job fighting forest fires.

Huh?

That’s right, for six years. It was seasonal business, but he ended up getting full time work TRAINING firefighters after getting his certificate.

So now I’m learning that you wear your regular clothes, with a Nomex suit over that, and you’ve got a fifty pound pack and a shovel and you sometimes have to hike miles to the fire. Sometimes they drop you off by helicopter, but it’s extremely strenuous nonetheless. You have to dig lines. And sometimes you have to sleep, you see firefighters are 24 hours on and 24 hours off.

So you dig a six inch hole and then put your fire resistant tent atop it. You breathe down into the hole. You hope the fire jumps over you if it comes your way. And fires are unpredictable, they’re constantly hopping around.

“It’s dangerous, right?”

You’ve got no idea. He saw a guy slice off his arm with a chainsaw, he fell off a ten foot cliff in the middle of the night, you never know what you’ll encounter.

But then the driver got married and had his son and he doesn’t want to be away from home that long so he became a personal trainer.

And not only did I get an education, I found out where he grew up, where he lived in the Bronx and Manhattan, all about his relationships and then…

We were at my destination.

He gave me his card, in case I wanted to work out.

Needless to say, I’m in a sling and I’m not doing anything for a while. But I’m interested and I feel obligated and who knows?

But what I do know is I was in an awful mood when he picked me up but when I was dropped off I was on top of the world. Life is about people, everybody’s got a story, makes me want to take Uber every day just to hear them.

P.S. My return ride was in a Kia mini-SUV with A/C so good I did not want to get out. This guy said he was an actor, times were slow so thirty days ago he began to drive. But I’m figuring he’s too old to be a complete wannabe, so I tell him this and he gives me his credits, he was on a series for six years, every episode, even directed some, he had guest shots on household name shows, he could touch his pension but his accountant said to wait until 65, so he’s driving…