A hit record is something that someone hears once, maybe twice, and can’t get out of their head.

Or as Ahmet Ertegun said… A hit record is something you hear on late night radio that causes you to get out of bed, get dressed and go to the all night record shop to buy.

A hit record can be a chart success, but not necessarily.

The Dave Matthews Band’s first hit record was “Ants Marching,” which showed up nowhere on the hit parade, but when you played it for someone they wanted to play it themselves and then turned everybody they knew on to it.

Going back further we’ve got “Sunshine of Your Love” by Cream, with its indelible riff. Part of “Disraeli Gears,” Cream not only had not had a Top 40 hit previously, underground FM radio, which played the track, was still only in a few cities. But the track was so undeniable that it ultimately crossed over.

And then you’ve got “Purple Haze,” released even earlier. Top 40 was not ready, but that was the track you played to turn people on to Hendrix.

As for this century, we’ve got Gnarls Barkley’s “Crazy,” which didn’t even have to finish for me to love it, to immediately go home and download it.

But sans context “Crazy” was just a single. There’s a business in singles, but it’s a hard one. What you want is a culture, a whole belief system, surrounding music, so that someone can be involved in the song.

Culture… Think about it. I write that Billy Strings hasn’t written a hit song, but he does have culture. If he wrote a hit, he’d no longer be underground, but everywhere (you can be underground and play arenas today, that’s how narrow the niches can be).

As for writing hit songs…

Maybe work with Dan Wilson, who doesn’t compromise your culture in order for you to have a hit. Your hit must be “on brand,” must sound like you.

A great example is “Whole Lotta Love.” The first Led Zeppelin album as amazing, it penetrated society for nearly a year, and then came “Whole Lotta Love,” which AM radio embraced and the rest is history.

As for “Stairway to Heaven”… It was never a single. But it was the number one rock track for decades in the Memorial 500 of AOR stations, and still would be if any of those stations were still active.

Oh, let’s comb the past once more. Def Leppard was not new, but you only had to hear half of “Photograph” to love it.

Today everybody has it backward. They think that the hit comes first. But that is very rare. It worked for the Eagles and Sam Smith, but when all you have is the hit…you’re screwed, few are coming to your shows, you have no career.

Now just because you’re a fan of a band, that does not mean they have a hit. You love them, you’ve seen them multiple times, you stream their music, but the act’s base doesn’t grow, because there’s not that instant track.

Acts need that instant track.

I loved Dawes’s second album. But they could never come up with a hit and ultimately band members left, they were sick of the grind.

How do you write a hit?

It’s best if it’s organic, within your oeuvre.

Traffic had written hits covered by others, but the band broke through with “Low Spark of High Heeled Boys,” which sounded like them, sounded like a stretch, but sounded like nothing else.

That’s what we’re missing. Acts that go on their own hejira, are not me-too, that when ultimately embraced become legendary.

That was the paradigm in the late sixties and seventies, until me-too corporate rock and disco killed it. MTV made stars, they rocketed you to the moon, but many of those acts immediately fell back to earth, because there was no culture.

Same today. A track is embraced and after it fades…nothing.

Today’s paradigm is akin to the movie business, which wants only blockbusters, and therefore relies on sequels and superhero flicks. All the innovation is on streaming television, that’s where risks are taken, supported by subscriber revenue.

And, in truth, the major labels are supported by subscriber revenue, they call it “catalog.” Endless income with almost no costs. Allowing the labels to…

Put out me-too wannabe blockbuster product.

That’s why the scene is moribund. There’s no there there. No innovation. Either you’ve got dreck just like the previous dreck, or left field stuff sans the essential building blocks of success…instrumental dexterity, melody, changes and a good voice. You can play in today’s music business, you can put your music up on Spotify, but you won’t truly go anywhere unless you have a hit.

And then there are bands that do boffo at the b.o. who can’t write a hit. Tedeschi Trucks… Doesn’t anybody in that act know the formula?

It’s like it’s a lost art. Acts have no idea what a hit is.

As for acts that have one big hit and go on a big tour and are given hosannas by the press… There are 100 million more people in America than in the seventies. Oftentimes it’s a large niche with no trailing effect.

So…

It’s actually easy. Play your music for someone, if they don’t want to tell everybody about it, if they just say they like it, it’s not a hit.

And a hit can take many forms. And it doesn’t need to be on the chart.

But hits are the heart and soul of this business.

There’s example after example. Metallica was big before “Enter Sandman,” after the track they were legendary, can sell out stadiums to this day.

We’ve got too many acts with too few knowing how the game truly works, never mind not many having talent. Everybody’s got their heads in the clouds, detached from reality.

The truth is the public is hungry for new music. But you’ve got to make it easy for them, you’ve got to write a hit.

That’s your assignment.

The media will focus on a handful of pop acts when the true action will be in smaller acts outside the national consciousness who focus on touring and merch as opposed to bitching about Spotify payouts.

Country will grow and grow. Country is the new hip-hop, but the northern elite controlled media continues to look down upon it, hating the same people who they believe are ignorant and voted for Trump. Country is rock in sheep’s clothing. Rock devolved into Active Rock, a marginalized format that you need a decoder and a deep knowledge of history to understand while country took the big guitars of rock anthems, added choruses and gained mindshare. Furthermore, to this day country acts, unlike pop acts, are not dependent upon hits, they are building careers, and careers are forever.

Acts will continue to bitch about Spotify. Believing we still live in the physical era and everybody who makes music is entitled to a living. No one is stopping you from selling CDs at your gig, never mind overpriced vinyl oftentimes to fans who don’t even own a turntable. If few are listening, why should you get paid? There’s a lot to complain about with major corporations but they and their practices are not always the reason you’re unsuccessful.

Spotify will be forced to respond to Liz Pelly’s new book “Mood Machine: The Rise of Spotify and the Costs of the Perfect Playlist.” You know Pelly’s accusations are true by the lack of Spotify’s response. Spotify denied Drake’s accusations… When the book finally comes out Spotify…will have a hard time defending itself, and if the major labels come down hard enough they’ll eliminate the practice. However, never forget most people do not get turned on to new music via playlists, playlists are mostly used as background music, which is why Spotify can get away with this program. However, every bogus stream does take away money from the overall pool. But don’t believe if you’re a marginal artist the elimination of this game will show up in your bank account.

The public will still believe that Spotify pays a per stream rate. And will state that Apple pays more per stream, not knowing that’s because Apple subscribers are less active listeners. Once again, it’s a pool of money that’s divided based on overall listens. Everybody does it the same way, but Spotify gets the heat because it’s the dominant service, active listeners are on Spotify.

The public will continue to misunderstand ticket fees, believing they all go to Ticketmaster and that the acts are completely innocent. The business is built on faith in the acts, and almost nothing can undercut that. Having said that, acts need to beware of their image, one false move can hurt you, assuming it’s big enough. Then again, everybody is ultimately forgiven, except for maybe R. Kelly, but his music still streams! If the track is good enough, it doesn’t matter who the artist is or what they have done, people will listen.

Classic rockers will continue to die. If you want to see them, see them now.

Club business will continue to decline.

EDM is forever, but it’s just a very big niche, which will peak again, but not soon.

The acts selling tickets in the clubs that still exist and theatres are completely unlike the pop stuff dominating the Spotify Top 50. Despite all the hype for these charting acts, the acts winning on the road actually know how to play their instruments and don’t dance to hard drive. What sells at this level is skill, songwriting, credibility and an ultimate bond with the audience.

Billy Strings shows that the public is hungry for skilled players. Imagine if Strings could actually write a great song! It always comes down to the song, and no matter how good a player you are, sans a great song you will always be hobbled.

Writing the songs yourself will continue to grow and be a badge of honor. The public is looking for honesty, this is the essence of Zach Bryan. Songs written by committee will be for the pop charts, and unless you’re a pop act, if you use Jack Antonoff it’s going to work against you, even if your song has some success, fans are sophisticated, they want their act to be unique, not just the latest work by the producer du jour.

The major labels will continue to believe they can buy anything successful. But the tools in their box continue to decline. Radio, TV and print mean less than ever before. But, having said that, if you dangle a big enough check, artists have a hard time resisting this.

The major labels will have no new competitors. In recorded music, that is. Because the majors sustain on catalog, which represents not only easy revenue, but power. Sans catalog and the revenue it generates no new label can truly compete. Having said that, publishers are the major labels’ big competitors today. Primary Wave is better for legacy acts than any label. And Primary Wave operates like a label, with product managers, not even doing the administration like most publishers. This is the wave of the future. As for Merck and Hipgnosis… The problem was interest rates, they went up and the investment in Hipgnosis looked bad. When it comes to publishing you don’t want a hypesters running your business, but someone with experience as a CFO.

Acts will continue to sell their catalogs and then wake up one day angry when their song is used in a commercial and they don’t get paid. Revenue for copyright is only going up, if you’re selling you don’t believe in the business…and yourself.

Springsteen selling to Sony undercuts the essence of what built the Boss, truth, justice and the American Way. Music is about the rugged individual speaking truth to power. Once you sell, you’re just another business person, ultimately a victim of the corporation. We’ve seen this movie from Elvis Presley on… You sell your rights, thinking you won, and ultimately you find out you lost. As for Pink Floyd selling…that’s a bit different, the members couldn’t get along, and David Gilmour has not been coy in speaking his truth, so he gets a pass. As for Roger Waters..?

The touring business will never change. If you can sell out arenas, never mind stadiums, you can write your own deal. As you go to smaller venues the act’s leverage is less. If you’re complaining about the split in clubs…the onus is on you, you don’t have enough leverage, sell more tickets and you’ll get more of the money. This business is about growth. Always has been, always will be. Having said that, if you have one hit you can work forever, and even those without hits can do the house concert circuit, which can sustain an act.

Tour deals will only increase in number.

The business has exhausted the post-Covid euphoria, not every act will go clean going forward. Big dreams will oftentimes lead to big disappointments. But ticket prices will not come down. If people want to go to the show, they’ll pay the freight, they need to be there.

Terrestrial music radio will continue to decline. Will this be the year the industry admits it? I doubt it.

This is a music driven business. If more young acts are inspired by Zach Bryan as opposed to the paint-by-number hits in the Spotify Top 50, we could see a surge. We are waiting for that one act which will gain the attention of the entire nation, the entire world, that everybody wants to listen to. Having said that, Bryan still has runway. Your market is the whole world today, and most people do not know your music. There is money in niche, but there’s more money in conventional songs/records, with melodies the public can sing along to, hooky choruses… But this is seen as uncool by most of the artists and the business, they want false edge (real edge is something different, it grows up from the bottom and is always outside, even when successful), the formula is right in front of us, new acts should be forced to listen Beatle albums to get it. And not only could the Beatles write memorable songs with bridges, they could sing! Unless you’re Bob Dylan, the greatest lyricist of all time, you’re going to be hobbled unless someone in the act has a great voice.

Finishing “Dreams” and “Angels” songs.

Tune in Saturday December 28th  to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz

Bill Hein started in retail, created Enigma Records, ran Rykodisc and is now pressing vinyl and so much more!

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