It’s going to put a huge dent in the middle class and cause a rush to authenticity.

AI makes it easier. So if you’re looking for music to accompany your YouTube video, voila! If you’re just another wanker recreating the electronic sounds/effects of the Spotify Top 50, good luck!

AI will be a tool. Just like with Velvet Sundown, auteurs will use AI to enhance their productions, just like the 808 and the Synclavier and other digital keyboards and effects. But this era where everybody makes music and believes they’re entitled to a living?

MORE people will be making music.

But fewer people will be professionals.

If you can strum a guitar and sing the hits you might be able to get a job at your local bar. But it’s doubtful, it’s cheaper for that establishment to just play records, delivered via streaming services, or a DJ who does essentially the same.

Technology changes the landscape.

The new recording technologies of the sixties caused a concomitant surge in the sale of higher end stereos, so people could hear the productions as clearly as possible.

The CD held more than seventy minutes of music, therefore albums got longer and longer, there was this belief that you could stretch out without compromise and that somehow the public would judge you negatively if you didn’t use up the space.

MTV put an emphasis on the looks of performers heretofore unseen. We still live in a visual environment, but the music has never been as separate from images since the heyday of MTV.

The music got compressed, you didn’t need to hear it on a full spectrum stereo, so people got all-in-one units, or even boomboxes, which were portable!

At the beginning of the digital music era an MP3 took up far less space than a full featured recording and the public accepted this so there was a vast reduction in the need for sound quality.

And then AirPods and headphones became popular, both of which have a hard time reproducing bass, so the quality of the sound was reduced once more, if you can’t hear it, why spend all that money to make it?

Do not fear AI.

Unless maybe you’re a coder. Anything to do with math, facts, rights and wrongs? AI is great at that. But the next iteration of AI known as relational AI is now on the market and this advance has rendered even MORE hallucinations. So this constant AI fear in the marketplace…do you remember NFTs? I’m not saying AI will have no impact, but it is overblown. Because the experts don’t even think they’ll be able to improve the accuracy soon, never mind that they’ve run out of data to train their models on.

So…

You can make a professional sounding song using AI. Right now it’s a party trick. I wouldn’t quite call it a fad, like the Syndrum, but it won’t be long before listeners are no longer impressed by a lame new track by a famous artist. It’ll be like sending jokes when the internet broke, no one does that anymore.

But to use AI as PART of your creation? That’s where the digital future lies. As for using it to write your papers, your legal documents…just in the newspaper today there was a judge castigating the legal team of the MyPillow guy because their documents were riddled with errors produced by AI.

So…

If you’re a musician and you want to survive… EMBRACE AI! It is not going away. Learn how to use it. Whether you ultimately use it in your compositions or recordings or not. This lesson has been taught over and over during the last two plus decades and creators still refuse to learn it. THE PAST IS NOT COMING BACK! We are only going forward. Don’t be a Luddite sitting on the sidelines.

There will be some people with little musical training who will create hits via AI.

And there will be pros who create hits.

But all the dreck filling up Spotify, et al, today?

If you’re making music that sounds like the Beach Boys, it must be BETTER than the Beach Boys, because I can get pretty good AI Beach Boys sounding music already.

So if you’re me-too about what once was… Good luck with that.

As for modern music, the Spotify Top 50, a lot of it is just a takeoff on what has been done by someone else, employing the same teams of writers, producers, remixers… So if you’re doing this, it won’t stand out. And the competition will be fierce, because you will be able to imitate the Spotify Top 50 cheaply and quickly.

But as far as authenticity?

If you’re skilled at playing your instrument, especially if it is acoustic/organic…this is your best hedge against AI. Authenticity, credibility is where AI is lacking. It’s literally a regurgitation of the past. As we go forward it might be able to be programmed to do something innovative and new, but that will come down to the experts referenced above who know how to do this.

The public always desires humanity, that’s what machines do worse. So for those of you complaining that AI will steal the musician’s lunch… Not that of someone who knows how to play and create something new.

Once again, we are going to see a hollowing out of the middle.

We will be exposed to genius productions at both ends of the spectrum. Stuff that we couldn’t even conceive of. AI could cause a renaissance in music.

As for AI in general…

This is music’s time once again. Music was the canary in the coal mine for digital distribution disruption and AI music is the canary in the coal mine for creative disruption. The applications AI is used for now… Rote tasks. But AI that can be part of the final product? What that looks like? Music will be first. Because music is cheap to make and distribute, unlike film and so many other enterprises.

You’ve got to jump into the fire.

AI music will only get better.

As for drummers being put out of business by the drum machine… There’s a huge market for drum programming, it’s a skill unto itself. I’m not saying it’s a one to one replacement, but drummers were not wiped out. There are always winners and losers in a new environment.

As for those ten year olds trying to have hits? Addison Rae? That’s commerce, not art. And AI can do that work very easily.

AI is going to EMPOWER creators, just like the computer and Pro Tools.

Get ready!

From Was Not Was to Bonnie Raitt to the Rolling Stones AND MORE! You’ll dig this!

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/don-was/id1316200737?i=1000716622758

 

 

 

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/ae01c956-99be-4aed-8698-d8403ce55178/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-don-was

It’s hypnotic.

You know it when you hear it, this track stuck out in Jeff Pollack’s weekly pick of five. Nothing else resonated, but this did.

Not that I was in a good mood. Usually that determines whether you’re receptive to new music, you have to be open to it, and that usually requires you to be settled and reflective, ready to slow down and spend some time in our fast-paced world where you slide through TikTok videos.

So what level do we want to analyze “Bag of Bones” on? The vocal, the instrumentation, the changes?

I’ll throw all that out, that’s being too professional, that’s not how the audience listens to a record, for them it’s a question of whether it resonates, how it makes them feel, and if they like it they’ll play it again and again until it reveals itself further, deciphering a line here and there until it all makes sense.

Or it does not.

Now if you click on the YouTube edition of “Bag of Bones” you can turn on closed captioning and read the lyrics and…

One thing is for sure, this is not the words of the Spotify Top 50, there’s no element of self-congratulation, domination, the singer is not a world-beater, anything but. This is alienation, this is rock and roll.

A sound that was ultimately eviscerated by MTV. Mood and feel didn’t work well there. Maybe Nine Inch Nails’ “Closer,” but the video was innovative and the sound was new and… Setting your mind free, adrift, that does not square with video, it’s the antithesis of today’s fast-paced world, it’s the other.

You want a respite from the freeway of life. You want to take the off-ramp into the wilderness and slow down and contemplate today’s existence, where there’s too much news and everybody’s out for themselves and compassion is dead and…

That’s modern life.

What’s a poor boy to do?

LISTEN TO A RECORD!

Actually, the younger generations are all about creation, and I applaud that, but it’s quite different from listening, being passive. And that’s the essence of music…it’s coming out of the speakers into your ears, it’s personal, how does it make you feel?

In truth, although somewhat striking, the video does a disservice to “Bag of Bones.” The track works better without images. But you need a video today as part of your promotional attack, but one thing is for sure, this is not the eighties, this video was made on the cheap, it was more about conception than seeing money spent on the screen.

Now Lord Huron’s been at it for over a decade. Even the rock bands of yore didn’t take this long to break. Then again, what is the status of Lord Huron? They’re certainly not a household name, but clicking through their site I can see they do great business in the sheds and they are playing Madison Square Garden, although there are plenty of seats still available, but not on the floor, up close.

So what is the experience you’re going to have at the show?

Maybe this is the kind of show you get stoned for. It’s not about dancing and shooting selfies, but letting the music wash over you.

But this is not Phish, this is not a jam band, “Bag of Bones” is closer to “Rooster” than “You Enjoy Myself.” You don’t need to be a fan of the band, be deeply invested in the band’s history to enjoy “Bag of Bones.”

I don’t want to overstate the case. “Bag of Bones” is not “Rooster.” But both exist in their own space, you invest yourself in them or…you don’t.

It’s no longer a zero sum game. You’re no longer on MTV or not, you’re no longer on the radio or not, you can survive quite nicely if you’re not in the Spotify Top 50.

Is being a musician enough, or are you in it for the trappings?

There are not trappings for most. Maybe some dope and sex, but you’re not going to be featured on TMZ unless maybe you die.

“Bag of Bones” is in a long tradition of rock that began with FM radio in the late sixties. Chart statistics were not primary, there might be a guy chomping a cigar somewhere, but he couldn’t tell the band what to do creatively, no way, and the act had a clear line separating what was right from what was wrong, what they’d do and what they wouldn’t.

Maybe that’s overstating the case with Lord Huron, but…

My inbox will be filled with people telling me “Bag of Bones” is sh*t. People will be vicious. But the joke will be on them, you’re wasting time hating on something? Why waste all that energy…no one has to listen to anything they don’t want to anymore, you’ve got yours and I’ve got mine.

So “Bag of Bones” gives a glimpse of what once was. Makes me believe in rock and roll, because once again it’s the antithesis of what is being hyped today. This isn’t the only kind of music I like to listen to, but I’ve got a wide spot in my heart for it, this fills a niche, exercises a muscle, activates a part of me that had been dormant, and it feels so good, not in an exuberant way, but an interior way. You get what I mean?

It’s all about the data.

The major labels blew the internet. If they didn’t have their catalogs, they’d be moribund enterprises, akin to other titans of the last century like MTV and terrestrial radio stations. The labels were so invested in the old model that they couldn’t adapt to the new. And when they finally woke up to the end of the physical world, the streaming takeover, they relied on their catalogs  to hold up distribution outlets to get paid the most dollars.

Meanwhile, they keep inventing new verticals of monetization, which is why you should be wary of selling your publishing and recording royalties, and you never know when a band might cover one of your old hits and turn it into a juggernaut, raining down cash, like Weezer did with Toto’s “Africa.” The key is to have a stake in the game.

And the major labels were losing their stake.

It’s great to own a catalog, but the business of recordings relies on new acts and new material. The game was to get your act on the radio, jam print and then with television appearances you’d find out if you had something or you didn’t. Most times you didn’t, but the hits covered the stiffs and royalty rates continued to be low, after all, where could the hit acts otherwise go, they needed major distribution and marketing.

But not anymore.

How do you break a record today?

Via TikTok.

How do you do that? Good question. Turns out elbow grease is oftentimes more important than talent. Are you willing to post multiple times a day, can you create content that engenders virality? The majors know how this works but they can’t game the system, and this frustrates them.

Furthermore, majors no longer want bunts or singles, just like the movie business they’re dependent upon blockbusters, so they invest heavily in ever fewer products and…

The movie studios have the streamers to save them. But there is no one who is saving the majors. A stiff is ultimately worth nothing. There is no secondary market. So…

You could seed the marketplace with a zillion different acts and tracks and see what gains traction and then blow it up.

That’s what this Downtown/Universal deal is all about.

Rob Stringer admitted it. You buy the independents to not only feed your distribution arm, but to gain insight into what is gaining traction and then you blow it up (or imitate it).

Imagine this. It would be like Russia getting a peek into Ukraine’s armaments, how many they are and where they’re deployed. And if you see a movement, you put troops there to counteract it.

Yes, the majors are going to build their businesses for the future on the backs of independent acts. Only took them twenty five years to figure out this was the proper model. I told Roger Ames to do this during the height of the P2P wars and wrote about it too and I don’t need a victory lap, but I will say if you’re looking for forward thinking, you don’t find it at record companies.

But you do find it in distribution. Which is why Spotify is now worth more than any major label, by far, nearly three times as much as Universal.

Once upon a time, back in the seventies, the predecessor of Sony Music, CBS Records, owned a chain of record stores, Discount Records. But ultimately they axed it, there weren’t enough profits to make it worth the company’s while.

Meanwhile, the majors controlled distribution. Which is what the creation of WEA was about. And you needed a distributor, to get all that physical product into stores, and to get paid. And indie labels had a hard time getting paid, which is why major distribution ruled.

But traditional distribution is irrelevant in the digital world. You make a deal with the streamer and send your files, you don’t need a slew of sales people to achieve this.

Meanwhile, the costs at Spotify, et al, are de minimis compared to the retailers of yore. There’s no rent, few employees, it’s a digital business just like Apple or Microsoft or Meta. When done right, it scales.

That used to be the paradigm in the record industry. Let’s just get lucky and sell ten million copies of an album, the expenses are already amortized, it doesn’t cost much to sell more records once the album is adopted by the public and becomes a juggernaut.

But now very few albums become juggernauts. And the economics of the album are in the toilet, it’s mostly a singles business and…

It’s the heyday of the indie.

Sure, there are a few acts streaming tonnage, but the independent sector is growing and growing and will own the future.

It’s just like the rest of the world. Tons of niches. Acts can sell out Madison Square Garden and most people have never heard of them.

But this is not the way it used to be.

So now the majors have pivoted and acquired the independent companies. Distributors indie acts need to get their music on streamers, you can’t do a direct deal by yourself, you must go through an intermediary.

And everything is built to sell. So these indie companies keep growing and keep getting sold, like the Orchard and Kobalt’s label services arm and now Downtown.

On one hand you can’t criticize Downtown, it built a business out of thin air based on the new world, and the owners want a return on their investment. But where does it leave all the acts the company distributes?

We’ve heard bitching about Spotify payments for fifteen years now, has there been any change? OF COURSE NOT! Because there’s only a hundred cents in a dollar, to believe otherwise is to evidence your ignorance. But Spotify is nothing without music, and it lives on the backs of indie artists who don’t realize this. They don’t realize their value and who the enemy is. And in this case the enemy is Universal Music.

Virgin, the company under whose umbrella Downtown will sit, says it will not look at the data. Yeah, right. And when that girl or guy is naked in the bathroom and leaves the door open you’re going to cover your eyes. And you’re not going to look at your girl or boyfriend’s bank account. And while you’re at it, you’re not going to check out the streams of your competitors. OF COURSE YOU ARE!

So now the majors will be able to see exactly what is happening in the world of music and be able to capitalize on it, profit on the backs of indies. Meanwhile, the indie acts are too busy complaining they’re not getting paid enough.

It’s about to get worse if this deal is approved.

But there’s very little blowback in the U.S. Because it’s every person for themselves here and the acts are not organized and antitrust is the devil.

Sure, a new independent company could come along and compete, but could they really? It’s kind of like the fifties and sixties into the seventies. The independent record companies which ruled the business were all purchased, there was no longer any there there. They didn’t have the money to compete…

It’s kind of like competing with Amazon or Google… They own their spheres. Every once in a while there’s a change that flips the script, like AI, but in music…it’s always going to be about the music, and it’s always going to be about copyright.

Music is not a traditional manufacturing business, it’s all about rights. And copyright extends beyond the life of the creator and…you can leverage those rights.

And the more rights you have the more leverage you’ve got.

And the more rights you control the harder it is for an indie to compete.

Music is now an independent business. The majors can’t break an act. You break it and then they license it and do their best to blow it up, assuming they’re interested at all. Traditionally they’re only looking for blockbusters, and if you’re not one, they don’t care, but now that they will control EVERY record, they do care.

It’s like the government. It has access to everybody’s tax returns, but the individual does not.

Amazon knows what sells and at what price, never mind having economies of scale, anyone who goes into competition with them…they underprice and put out of business or purchase.

This is the game the majors are now in.

These are not benevolent enterprises. All three companies are public and they’ve got to deliver returns for stockholders, they’re not about music but finance. Which is one reason Robert Kyncl is downsizing at Warner. To make the numbers work, not to make better, more successful music. BECAUSE HE DOESN’T KNOW HOW TO DO THIS!

No one does anymore.

Furthermore, music is about as cottage industry as it was back in the caveman days. You start it yourself in your own market, if you’re looking for a deep pocket to take you there, you’ve been listening to that Staples Singers song too much.

And on one hand, this is a good thing, everybody’s starting from the same line. But the majors want to eliminate this, game the system via their control of indie distribution.

This is happening in plain sight, but it’s not sexy enough to rile up independent creators. They’ll only feel the loss after the fact, when it’s too late.

The game always triumphs, and he or she with the most information has a leg up, which is what Universal’s purchase of Downtown is all about.

The rewards go to the visionaries, which is why Daniel Ek is a billionaire and Lucian Grainge is not. And there’s not enough money in the music business to attract the best and the brightest, but it has been a bastion of entrepreneurs who don’t fit in elsewhere.

The goal here is to control the entrepreneurs or squeeze them out of the system.

No independent movie studio has survived without a catalog and without a catalog, an independent music company is screwed.

But music is much cheaper to make and distribute than film/visual productions. Which means the individual act can triumph.

Distribution is king. The majors want to control it. They want to take a toll from every act out there.

Do you build a new hightway?

Just look at the revenue from your toll.

Should you build EVs or only SUVs…are sedans coming back?

The toll will tell you.

A driver has no option. Sure, they could take the backroads, but it would take forever. They’ve got no choice.

And soon independent acts won’t have any choice either.