Many shows don’t sell out, who’da thunk?

Yesterday everybody was complaining they couldn’t get a ticket and now they’re saying no one wants to go, which is it?

What we’ve got here is the internet, where everybody reports, mostly without background knowledge, and then things are repeated as fact and… Suddenly you’ve got an issue where you didn’t have one before!

The Pussycat Dolls?

In the pre-internet days, no one would assume a pop band that had been away for years with no discernible fan base would be able to sell tickets. But the Spice Girls did…

God, you’d think this was rocket science. But no, it’s betting, a casino!

What you’ve got here is managers who want to sell their wares, and their wares are their acts. And then you’ve got talent buyers who either bite or do not. Not to mention, there’s tons of FOMO. Is your competitor going to get the tour, establishing a relationship that might run forevermore? Do you want to take that risk?

So especially with old acts with no tour history, everybody is making a bet, and sometimes the bet is wrong.

But this doesn’t only happen in music. Look at the Cybertruck, it was projected to sell 250,000 to 500,000 units when production was fully ramped up. But it actually sold 38,965 units in 2024, and only 20,000–21,000 units in 2025. Talk about a stiff! But at a much higher cost…

Elon Musk and Tesla didn’t know whether people would want to buy the Cybertruck until it was on offer. But he hyped the hell out of it before it came to market. Just like the music business does. Ever notice that suddenly an act is all over the news? It’s usually to gain interest in new recordings, then again, you’ve got Taylor Swift’s Eras tour… Where all the tickets in the U.S. went on sale on the same day so there would be mania, which would drive sales further. I mean the audience doesn’t want to be left out. This was insurance against not going completely clean, like the previous time around. But the story became about a Ticketmaster failure… That’s hysterical, it was a bot field day, what Ticketmaster said was true, but it didn’t want to say no to Taylor, say that it couldn’t sell all those tickets on one day, risking that another company would come and take her business. And Ticketmaster really had no idea how bad the bots would be until the tickets went on sale.

There are acts that will sell out no problem, like Olivia Rodrigo. But notice how she keeps adding dates. Yup, she could announce multiple shows at once, but that risks them not selling out, which is anathema to an act. Once you’re playing to empty seats, you’re on the downhill slide. So fans are rabid for the few seats available, and after the announced shows sell they add extras, which were on hold…this was the plan. It’s not like the promoters were shocked that there was sellout demand for the announced shows…they just didn’t know how many shows she could sell!

Now it used to be if someone canceled a show or a tour, few would know about it. Possibly no one other than those who had already purchased tickets. But in the internet era, word spreads like wildfire, and nothing spreads like negative news. Haters love this stuff, they want everybody to know.

Never mind that a lot of shows that are announced as being sold out are not. Which is why you should be wary of buying extra tickets to scalp. You can’t get rid of them, because the demand was not as great as perceived, and you can’t compete with the experts, which is what we’ve learned with prediction markets:

“Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets – A WSJ analysis shows a small number of accounts on Polymarket and Kalshi—often pros using data-driven algorithmic trading—take home most of the winnings”

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11

But today everybody believes they’re an expert. They’re privy to all this information online, of course they know how to do it. But would you let someone who watched a lot of YouTube videos set your broken leg, or install a stent? OF COURSE NOT! Then why is the average punter so convinced they know everything about the concert business?

They keep on beating up promoters, but the margins are amazingly thin. And not every show is successful., but the band still has to get paid. But there are stories of acts going on the road and coming home with no money and it must be someone’s fault, and the obvious targets are the promoter and ticketing company. They’re stealing from the acts!

But did the act have to tour at this cost? And how much demand is really there?

Think about it. You’re a pretty good instrumentalist. Why don’t you go on the road. But you wouldn’t, because you can’t sell enough tickets to make it financially viable. That’s where the rubber meets the road, ticket sales…are enough people big enough fans that they’ll lay down all that money to see you. They might listen to your record, but go to a show? There’s not only the ticket price, but the transportation, the parking, the food… In most cases, it’s a big decision.

And while I’m quoting the “Wall Street Journal,” did you see this article?

“The Boy Band Heyday May Be Over—But the ‘Man Band’ Era Has Just Begun – From the Backstreet Boys to the Jonas Brothers to Boyz II Men, adult women are paying up to see their favorite grown-up boy bands this summer”

https://www.wsj.com/arts-culture/music/nkotb-the-backstreet-boys-boyz-ii-men-tour-97f915e0

Here’s the nougat:

“Melissa Hicks, a 46-year-old Baltimore elementary-school teacher who bought tickets to see NKOTB three times in Vegas over July 4 weekend, a cheap seat for $153, then VIP tickets for $1,910 and $1,491—plus she paid for travel.”

That puts the kibosh on all those stories that the rich are buying the good seats, driving up prices. This woman is a SCHOOLTEACHER! But she paid four figures to see her favorite act, and she’s not the only one!

The dirty little secret is it’s the fans who are paying outrageous sums for tickets, they want to be inside the building just that much. Which is why ticket prices are so high. Because if they’re priced so the prognosticators won’t bitch, the scalpers buy the ducats and then resell them at a huge markup, with the act getting none of this money.

But you’ve got to blame somebody, and for some reason it’s always Ticketmaster.

Which may not be perfect, but…

In most cases fans are missing the point, as are reporters who delve into this field only occasionally.

The bottom line is fans have unlimited cash for the acts they want to see. Period. And no one is forcing them to see acts they don’t want to, usually the price doesn’t even matter. Either you want to go or you don’t. The promoter can drop the price and very few are incentivized to buy.

So, will this be a good summer for the concert business?

Well, what about the stock market, which keeps going up despite the war in Iran and high gas prices… And the truth is most of the value run-up is a result of AI investment, and so far return has been underwhelming, so will there be a crash? You can make your own bet, buy stock or sell it or…

But that would require a modicum of expertise.

But when it comes to the show, everybody’s an expert!

But the dirty little secret is when it comes to so many shows, NO ONE knows exactly what the demand is. You can go on a sellout arena tour and the next time around you can have trouble moving theatre tickets.

So are people pinched such that they won’t go to shows this summer?

Or is the truth that when it comes down to desirable acts, fans will beg, borrow and steal to be there.

This is the game concert promoters play.

As for those who are not superstars… The truth is since recording revenue for acts that can sell a couple of thousand tickets is so low they tour constantly and come back to markets a few times a year and at what point do fans say it’s not worth it? That’s when price plays a factor.

Post Malone selling stadiums this summer? I wouldn’t have taken that bet.

But a promoter did.

What would you do? If it was your money?

But you ask yourself the equivalent question all the time… What’s it worth for you to be in the building… You might not think it’s worth $200, but if you don’t pay the freight, you won’t be there.

So you bitch and moan, but you open your wallet and go to the show.

They keep telling us to believe in the system. And just to wait for the coming election(s).

I remember Bill Maher predicting that Donald Trump wasn’t going to leave the White House if he lost in 2020. One after another Democratic bigwig smiled and laughed and then schooled Maher that the system would hold. OH YEAH?

What we’ve got is Democratic elected officials and TV talking heads going on about the horse race(s)… It’s endless, it’s the underlying theme of all their speech. But what if someone changes the rules of the game?

That is what the Republicans have done with redistricting. Normally executed every ten years after the census, Donald Trump pushed for a redrawing now, ergo the changes in Texas.

And yes, California fought back.

And ultimately Virginia. But Virginia’s new maps were just thrown out by the courts.

And before that Ron DeSantis had his “people” redraw the maps of Florida without the public’s participation. That’s what’s been happening, except in very rare cases, a governor and state Congress have acted without a vote of the people. And you thought your vote counted, what a laugh… Hell, my vote in California hasn’t counted since I moved here half a century ago, because of the electoral college.

Well, that ain’t ever gonna change. There can be no adjustments to the Constitution, the bar is too high.

So…

What’s a poor boy to do?

Certainly not play in a rock and roll band. Rock is dead and rap…Blacks have been screwed from time immemorial. Now by the evisceration of the Vorting Rights Act. And while some rappers still delineate their dissatisfaction with the system, the goal really is to use the system, manipulate the system, for riches. They’re trying to beat the man at his own game, which is money. And good for them, but how many successful rappers are there?

Now let’s be clear, many people have completely checked out of the system. Or voted for it and found afterward they were negatively affected, but at least they kept the left wing woke/elite from benefiting!

The Republicans have not only won the redistricting wars, they’ve completely redefined public perception. They’ve played a long game, for decades, just like with the Federalist Society. People laughed at some of their pronouncements, but now it’s collective wisdom that the Democratic party is run by the woke…a word whose definition has been twisted to serve the right’s purpose. But it gets even worse, Antifa is lurking around every corner and whenever lefties get together to protest, they’re paid to do so. That true Americans aren’t doing this, that true America is in danger of disappearing, that’s what the MAGA movement is all about. And the left laughs as it loses constituents and power…meanwhile, being moribund in D.C. and afraid to take a stand for fear of alienating some protentional minority group. Oftentimes in battles that the right has created. Like trans women in college sports. First and foremost, there just aren’t many. But the right has ginned up this controversy and the left is paralyzed, because it cannot be on the wrong side of this for fear of offending the trans constituency and…where’s it going to go? A disaffected right wing influencer just revealed that her former compatriots get their marching orders from Trump’s posse and are paid to post. Yup, all those social media posts supporting the Ballroom after the gunman at the Correspondents’ Dinner was masterminded by the Trump people themselves, they’re organized. The Democrats? They tell us their hearts and minds are in the right place and it’s not necessary to employ these techniques.

Oh YEAH?

So people keep asking me who is going to be the Democratic candidate in 2028.

But it’s even worse, the Democratic Party and the commentariat keep telling us to wait until the election, for change.

Oh YEAH?

I watched  the Capitol riot on January 6th with my own eyes. You saw people wreak havoc in the building. It has come out that elected officials feared for their lives. But not only are they patriots, those who were convicted were set free. Good luck getting set free the next time you break the law or try to subvert the election process.

And it’s all being done in plain sight.

Used to be it was done behind closed doors. We found out years later about the machinations in smoke-filled rooms. Now we’ve got Orban conceding an election when Trump never has.

A free and fair election?

The Democrats were supposed to take over the House. Now it’s going to be much harder to do.

As for 2028…

It’s very easy.  And simple. The problem is illegal voting. Yup, all the immigrants showing up to vote, you know, the same immigrants afraid to go to a Bad Bunny show for fear of being arrested by ICE. These people are gonna show up to vote? Yeah, right!

And mail-in voting is ripe for fraud.

There’s so much fraud in the system.

The only problem is no one can find it, but it’s there I tell you!

So, the strategy is not only to make it harder to vote, but to strike people from the voter rolls. They’ve been doing this for multiple cycles now. Getting rid of Democratic voters. Hell, they want complete control of the voter rolls. To ensure that the table is tilted and they maintain power.

And never forget Johnson’s refusal to seat a duly elected Democratic representative for weeks and weeks.

And then there’s Mitch McConnell… Who refused to allow Obama to nominate a Supreme Court justice, but squeaked in a right wing one just before Trump left office. And now the 6-3 right wing majority, whose members are there for life, have said that the president is basically immune and there is no racism in America and…

Never mind judges further down the food chain.

In other words, if you expect the justice system to save you… The same one which keeps ruling against Trump’s tariffs as he continues to institute them?

You’re on your own, baby.

But those with all the power, and oftentimes the money, keep telling you to believe. The same people telling you that if Live Nation and Ticketmaster are split up then ticket prices will go down. They’re selling falsehoods to make you feel good when change is not imminent, not change that will benefit you.

It goes on and on, with low corporate taxes, tax cuts that benefit the rich much more than everybody else and the carried interest rule for ultra-wealthy hedge fund managers.

And we’re told to vote.

George Carlin had it right, and his wisdom is has been repeated ad infinitum online, if you think the rulers are of this country are going to cede control…

Yup, we’re getting wisdom from a comedian.

Which is one reason comedy is now burgeoning. Are you expecting the truth from Sabrina Carpenter and her imitators? They’re commercial products build by committee made to satiate a somnambulant public. Meanwhile… It’s those making the jokes who are telling the truth, to the point where Trump refused to have a comedian at the aforementioned Correspondents’ Dinner. There was supposed to be a mentalist instead.

So either you’re defeated and disconnected or you’ve been duped into believing everything is hunky-dory. Meanwhile, they’re stealing the country and getting rich in the process.

The power is with the people.

But not at the ballot box.

It couldn’t be clearer.

Albums where the best song is not the single.

This is a live show, call in with your take.

Tune in Saturday May 9th to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.

Phone #: 844-686-5863

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz

MAGGIE KANG

They gave her the key to the city, which she definitely deserves. An immigrant from Seoul, you know her as the Oscar-winning force behind “KPop Demon Hunters.” She said she wanted to make the characters stupid. And that she tries to be the funniest person in the room. And when asked how to add a female character to a script she said they should just flip a male character to a woman. Maggie wanted to get all her Korean influences into the movie, which took seven years to complete. This is the type of person changing the world, this is the type of person who cannot be replaced by AI.

DERYCK WHIBLEY

You know him as the frontman for Sum 41. A pipsqueak punk. But he’s a veritable intellectual. Analyzing his life and the life of a musician and faith and fear and courage… He separated out all the issues. He was a deeper thinker than most college graduates. Reminded me of the old days, when rockers would be interviewed in “Rolling Stone” because they had something to say, not because they had something to promote…the interview might not even have been aligned with a release. These rockers opined and readers like me ate it up. These were our heroes, these were our leaders. It wasn’t about raw adulation, it was about thinking and responding.

JULIAN BUNETTA

We talked all about writing hit songs and… One thing he agreed with me on is the best stuff comes in a flash, a bolt of inspiration, and you need to get it down right away and most of these great songs are completed quickly. As for only wanting to give your song to an artist if it’s going to be the single… In the old days, an album track was worth as much as the hit on a CD, and paid accordingly. But in these pick and choose days, if writers have what they believe to be a hit song, many hold it back for a hit artist who will use it for a single, that’s where the bread is, an album track just ain’t worth much. And I was discussing this with Julian and he said you never know what a hit is anymore. That the audience decides. He talked about a household name act where the fans picked a ballad first, which a record company never would have. It’s not only the gatekeepers who have been eliminated, but those at the source, the label itself, no longer have the power of yore. You can’t push a record to the top. You need the audience to start it.

MARY RAMOS

She’s a music supervisor who did “Pulp Fiction” and other Tarantino movies and so many others. She was a bundle of energy, she evidenced a lot of personality, you could see that she’d be fun to have around, to hang with, and that’s a main criterion for any gig, you’ve got to fit in, hopefully add to, be a friend…nobody wants to work with a jerk. But even more, Mary reminded me of Annie Hall… The way she pulled back in the middle of a statement, laughed, smiled…it was nearly uncanny.

TRUMP

He not only lives in the minds of Americans, but Canadians too. Hang long enough and he and the political situation in the U.S. come up. People keep asking me about the 2028 election. I tell them that Trump and the Republicans are never going to let a Democrat win. That there are only five to seven states that matter and if you strike enough people from the voter rolls and put up other hurdles…a Democrat has no chance. Those in D.C. and the media still believe in the system, young people do not, and they’re the ones who ultimately force change.

NORTH BAY

That was a new one on me. I mean I know Mississauga and Hamilton, but people keep telling me they come from places I’ve never heard of. Not that North Bay is at the absolute limits, but it is three and a half hours from Toronto. As hip as Canada is, there’s definitely a feeling that they live behind a great wall that is hard to jump over to make it in the United States. To be big in Canada is like being big in your high school, but to be big in Hollywood… Oh, don’t tell me about all the Canadian superstars, that’s not my point. I’m talking about an outlook, a mentality. Canadians don’t feel entitled, they know it takes a lot of work to break through.

WALKING

Nobody walks in L.A., isn’t that what Missing Persons said? But that was when there was a hip alternative music scene commenting on the mainstream by being truthful and irreverent and therefore connecting with those on the cutting edge, who led change. I’ve walked more in Toronto than I did all last year in L.A. I guess this is a feature of most cities, but Toronto is not down and dirty like so many south of the border.