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Biden won’t be the candidate.

Because he can’t win in November.

On Wednesday, the day before the debate, the “Washington Post” said Joe was losing in five of the seven battleground states, the only contests that truly matter in this election. And then Nate Silver released his initial prediction, based on his averaging of the polls, and the headline of his piece was:

“The presidential election isn’t a toss-up – As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor.”” https://t.ly/nLelB

But we were assured by the Bidenites that everything was copacetic, that in the end people would wake up and Biden would win, after all, who’d want another Trump presidency?

And then came the debate.

The week long run-up bothered me. That’s the benefit of getting old, you ignore the hype and wait for the event. Not that I expected the event to move the needle, but then it started.

This is why you play the game. This is why life is worth living. Because despite prognostications, you never know what will happen in the future, NEVER! But we haven’t seen an upset of this magnitude since 1969 and Super Bowl III, when the Jets beat the Colts, who were favored by 19.5 points. But please don’t use this spread as a reason to believe Biden will win, Joe Namath was young, if not quite spry, his knees were not in the greatest of shape, whereas Joe Biden is old.

There, I said it. Joe Biden is too old.

The Democrats are the worst offenders here. And the backlash is deafening. Everybody can do the job. We need to let handicapped people play in the NBA. What ever happened to the best person for the job?

But for the best analysis, I refer you to Nate Silver once again:

“Joe Biden Should Drop Out – Denying Joe Biden’s decline has put the Democrats in a terrible position”: https://t.ly/vrKAy

Now the reason you should read this second article is it’s a statistical analysis of aging and dying. What is lost and when. Baseball has been revolutionized by statistics, just read Michael Lewis’s “Moneyball,” and that was published back in 2003! That’s right, our entire world is now run by data, but when it comes to the DNC? It’s irrelevant.

Bottom line…if Joe Biden finishes a second term he’ll be 86. Stop and think about that. Do you really want an 86 year old chief executive? There are only two people older in the Fortune 500, Warren Buffett and Roger Penske, and they control their companies: https://t.ly/0fZqp The thought of having someone of that age in the top job is horrifying in business. But in politics?

Bottom line is decline happens faster as you age, and your odds of dying increase. It’s not linear. So you’re asking the public at large to elect someone who may not even be alive in four years, who may exhibit mental decline? And, of course, there are nonagenarians with perfect cognitive abilities, but my mother started repeating herself in her mid-eighties. As time went on, she was not even in charge of her checkbook, because as you age, the mind falters.

These are facts, but if you don’t believe them, we can just brush them aside. Because we saw Joe Biden on Thursday night and it was perfectly clear that the aging process, the decline, had not only begun, but there was further attrition.

And everybody freaked out.

I don’t know about you. But from the very first moment Joe spoke I winced, audibly. I just couldn’t believe it. His stiff walk on stage maybe I could let pass, but not his performance. And then my text messages started to go wild. People were weighing in from across the country. People who’ve never communicated with me regarding politics, they were absolutely stunned, they could not believe their eyes, they felt there was no chance Biden could win.

But for the last forty eight hours we’ve been told to deny our eyes, not to believe what we saw, and now the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans, who keep telling us January 6th was a picnic, a romp in the park. But I saw both of these events in real time with my own eyes!

No wonder no one believes in politics anymore.

But it gets worse.

But first there was a dose of reality.

As soon as the debate was over, I switched to MSNBC, where I expected the usual spin, pro-Biden. But just the opposite took place. Rachel Maddow spoke first, and her words were halting. She didn’t paint a positive picture, not whatsoever, what she’d seen was an unmitigated disaster.

And then Nicole Wallace echoed her statements. And then Joy Reid, who said she’d been in contact with the Democrats during the debate, that her phone had been blowing up. Rachel asked Joy if these were just citizens, or true insiders with power. Joy said the latter.

Then they threw it to Alex Wagner, on the floor of the debate. It was like a family member had died.

And then back to Lawrence O’Donnell in the studio, who started talking about how bad Trump was.

This is what happens when you’re too inside, you can’t see the game. This debate ended up not being about substance, but PERCEPTION! It didn’t matter a whit what either candidate said, first and foremost because you often couldn’t even hear Biden, never mind understand him. His voice was not only raspy, but soft. Softer than anybody in attendance.

As for those who said Biden got better and Trump worse at the end… You can argue such, but you can’t get over the initial perception, that Biden was old and had lost a step.

And then Chris Hayes echoed Rachel and Nicole and Joy and Alex.

I’ve never seen this before. There was no spin. Just acknowledgement of what a disaster this was.

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And then I drove to the Hollywood Bowl to see Chris Stapleton, and constantly refreshed my phone for analysis. The L.A. “Times” had none. Proving that when you cut your staff to the bone you pay a price. And the big players didn’t instantly go negative, but by time we hit about 10 or 10:30 Thursday night, they had.

It was clear. This was a debacle. Biden was toast.

I get it, I get it. It’s a game. You’ve got to have your ducks in a row before you proceed. You’ve got to have a plan for the future before you get rid of Joe.

So there was the rally in North Carolina after the debate. All we hear is how firey Joe was. But if you watch the video, when Jill Biden is on the podium, Joe is a deer in the headlights behind, just like he was at the podium the night before.

And speaking of the night before, have you seen the video of the walk-offs? Trump turned tail and strode off the stage. Biden? He had to wait for Jill. Who took his arm, and then had to help him down the tiny little steps.

Maybe you didn’t see it. But it’s all over social media. And the Republicans will make hay of this. And there’s no issue of editing, this is raw footage.

And now I have to beat up the DNC. How in the hell did you let this happen? This is the same outfit that is asking us for money for television ads? They’ve got no viable plan to reach the younger generations who live online, other than paid ads with grandpa Joe asking for money, which are execrable. The DNC’s entire plan was to talk about how bad the other guy was. You cannot win if you don’t play offense, you’ve got to put some points on the board. And Biden was in the dugout, on the bench, and when he strode up to the plate… I wouldn’t say he choked so much as crumbled.

It doesn’t matter if he had a cold, this is much worse than a bad night, this is TRAGIC!

And once again, if you’re on the social media the oldsters who say they know better deprecate, you’ll see footage of the Vice Presidential debate between Biden and Ryan with Charlie Rose back in 2012. Your jaw will drop. It’s a completely different Biden. Talk about losing a step, Biden has lost many.

And all we hear from insiders is their hands are tied. That there’s nothing they can do, it’s Joe’s decision whether to stay or go.

That ain’t true in the least. That’s the kind of hogwash that gets my dander up. It’s very simple…

Let’s use the case of Watergate. The Republicans denied, denied and denied, but then they realized it was a lost cause and they went to the White House and told Nixon he had to resign. This is how it always happens, very slowly and then all at once.

Not only can you speak truth to power, you have a lot of tools in your box. You can say you won’t introduce any legislation in a second Biden term. That you will block all of his appointments. That you’ll vote to defund his travel. This is how you fire someone who won’t go, you freeze them out. This is why Al Franken left the Senate, they squeezed him out by telling them they were going to freeze him out if he didn’t leave, and he left.

As for Biden defying this… Why? He’s the only one who can beat Trump? Anybody who saw the debate who thinks that Biden can still defeat Trump is delusional.

As for Trump… He lied his ass off. But until deep into the debate there were no histrionics. He observed the time limits. He spoke slowly. Trump rose to the challenge, Biden did not. If anybody looked Presidential on stage, it was Trump.

3

You only have one job now, to stop supporting Joe Biden for President. It’s a losing cause.

I’ve been saying Joe Biden is too old for nearly a year. And whenever I do, I lose hundreds of subscribers. People can’t handle the truth. They want to argue with me. Thursday night taught me a lesson, to stick to my guns. Tribalism and groupthink got us into this mess. And it ain’t gonna get us out.

The world has changed and the Democrats have not.

So who is going to run? IT ALMOST DOESN’T MATTER!

I used to believe in Gavin Newsom, but the right has done such a good job of defining him, negatively, that he’s no longer that strong a candidate. Polis and Pritzker are good, but not well-known. It’s very simple, Gretchen Whitmer for President and Josh Shapiro for Vice President. Not only are they both competent, they’ve got higher profiles than Polis and Pritzker. And even better, they’re governors of two battleground states. Time to fight fire with fire.

As for Kamala Harris… She’s in a worse situation than Newsom. The Republicans have defined her so negatively that even Democrats have accepted this characterization. Once again, perception is everything, EVERYTHING! As for those saying getting rid of Harris will alienate Black voters and women… If everybody wanted Harris so much, why did she do so poorly in the 2020 primaries, never mind the debates.

But one thing is for sure, it can’t be Joe. Anyone but Joe.

And in truth the hoi polloi might be donating since the debate, but the deep pockets, the big spenders, are now holding back. Not only do they feel duped, they want to wait until the dust settles.

Biden is bloviating, but everybody knows it’s over. And they have to ensure that this is the case. Sooner rather than later.

I know, I know, you can’t get rid of Joe without a plan. So you’ve got to kill a bit of time. But I’m sick and tired of all these loyal soldiers defending Biden. Chris Matthews on Bill Maher last night made me puke. And you might not even subscribe to HBO, but in this overloaded fragmented world “Real Time” is where many people get their news. And to see this guy be noncommittal…

But it’s not only Matthews, it’s seemingly everybody with a profile. No one can have a backbone, no one can speak the truth? We saw the debate with our own two eyes, over fifty million of us, and you’re going to tell us we can’t believe what we saw? This was not a bad night. This was evidence of someone who needs to retire. Pronto. With a bit of his dignity intact.

And don’t compare 2024 with 1968. It’s completely different. The story then was Vietnam. There is no Vietnam today, young people are not afraid of being sent overseas to be killed in a fruitless war. As for Israel/Gaza… Can we stop letting the tail wag the dog? Can we stop letting the minority control the majority? It’s a very few people protesting. You’re not supposed to be afraid, you’re supposed to lead.

And I’m old enough to remember when JFK told us “Ask not what your country can do for you…ask what you can do for your country.” We’re dying to help. But enough with our money, enough with knocking on doors. First and foremost we have to believe in the cause, that’s what motivates us. And it’s time to turn around this selfish nation, make it more compassionate. That’s what most people want. You can win by leading with kindness.

Not that the ultimate Democratic candidate needs to fight with one hand behind their back, when they go low we need to punch them right down, correct their falsehoods.

4

I had no intention of writing about the debate. I saw no upside. And now it was clear everything I said about Biden’s age was right. Period. I don’t believe in victory laps like Kara Swisher and Bill Maher, telling you I was right. You followed me, you know.

But what has happened since… Biden doubling-down, his seconds building him up, that just pisses me off. I saw the truth with my own eyes and now people are telling me to just believe… Well that hasn’t worked out so far. And let me reinforce, if Biden is re-elected he’ll finish his term at 86! Divorce it from Biden. Just think about that. Do you want an 86 year old running ANYTHING? Sure, oldsters have accumulated wisdom, which we rarely listen to, never mind respect in America. But you need someone fit, quick, on their toes to be the President, and that ain’t Joe.

Just gimme some truth. But there are no John Lennons plying the boards these days, everybody thinks about the team, the bucks first. But the team is not always right. They were wrong about Biden…

NEXT!

Tune in Saturday June 29th to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.

Phone #: 844-686-5863

Twitter: @lefsetz

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz

It was like 1972.

And I mean that in a good way. I pictured myself bellied up to the bar, drinking a beer while a band played on the short riser in the corner. Members dressed identically to how they were on the street just minutes before, the music, the mood being everything, the trappings irrelevant.

There was a giant horizontal hi-def screen above the performers, a stage design I hadn’t seen previously, but it was just a little out of sync with the performers, which was disconcerting, however I was very close, did it matter to those in the back? Probably not. Then again, they have screens further back at the Bowl now.

Stapleton is the antidote to everything everybody complains about in today’s music world. You know, the generic, machine-made songs with vapid lyrics that could be written by a ten year old and make you wince, or are fantasy cartoons, no different from a high concept movie, at least “The Harder They Come” was somewhat believable, I mean Jamaica had a reputation for violence.

So what brings people to see Chris Stapleton?

The songs. Period. Showing their power. You don’t need anything else if you have those.

But the big surprise was Stapleton’s guitar-playing, it’s all about style, not speed, Lowell George taught us this. Your axe is just a starting point, everybody can have a unique voice, assuming they choose to. This show could inspire anybody to play, the power of a guitar is undeniable, in a way a synth never can be. Furthermore, there were a lot of guitars, it seems like each song demanded a new one, and there was even a change in the middle of a song. That’s the luxury of being a superstar, you can live out your fantasy, instead of playing the same damn instrument the whole night, like when you’re coming up. And I was especially inspired by Chris’s playing of a Jazzmaster, which Elvis Costello made his bones on, but everybody else pooh-poohed in favor of the Stratocaster. (And let’s not forget the Gretsch.)

And Stapleton is forty six years old. The antithesis of what we’re told sells. But that’s because he’s so good, so authentic. Chris paid his dues, and he knows it. He kvells at times, it’s rewarding, thrilled that he’s on stage singing his songs, especially when he’s in duet with his wife Morgane.

Unlike the four or five member bar bands, there were seven people on stage. You got a pedal steel player. Another guitarist who oftentimes played an acoustic. And a keyboard/organ player. No one was showing off, but they were locked in as an ensemble, which is the opposite of what we see so often, people showing off, like I said, the music was the star.

Chris talked a bit, but not much. But otherwise this was very similar to a Springsteen show. Chris is singing his inner truth, the angst is evidenced, it’s the heart of America. For all the red/blue divide b.s., there’s a part of everybody who can connect with Stapleton and his music, because we’re all people, human beings at the core.

Now as the show progressed, it left the bar, it had more of the characteristic of a concert, the average bar band doesn’t get to play this long, doesn’t have well-known originals. But Stapleton played for two hours and it didn’t drag. (And unlike so many performers Stapleton didn’t stretch out the numbers ad infinitum, he played them at the length of the records, and therefore he could play twenty three songs.)

And people knew the material. Singing along at times. These were fans, there were no casual users in attendance, it’s not like they’d heard one Stapleton number and needed to see the flavor of the moment, everybody there was very familiar with Stapleton and his music (you can ask me how I know, but you can feel it, whether people are paying attention, whether they sing along, whether they’re on their phones…or not).

This is rock and roll. Not the stuff you hear on Active Rock. That’s a niche product. Made for a minority. It tends to be hard, aggressive, and there’s a market for that, but it’s not very broad. The guitar tech tested the sound playing AC/DC, and in truth AC/DC is an American band, even though they’re from Down Under. Everybody knows them, everybody knows their music, credit Mutt Lange, and maybe we need to credit Dave Cobb when it comes to Stapleton, but the formula WORKS!

Now in truth no one is universal these days. It’s all about your trench, your niche, and how wide it is. You might not be passionate about Stapleton and what he does, but his fans certainly are, a mix of women and men, I cased the joint, about a 50/50 ratio, and there were no tweens there, no one brought their kids to the show, this was a party, an experience for those old enough to drink, who know what adult life is all about, and it’s complicated and difficult, and music when done right is a release.

Stapleton sets your mind free. You see no artifice, just a lot of hard work.

And when I exited the building I saw the trucks. They were all painted on the side, with ads for Traveller Whiskey. And I didn’t see it as a sell-out, or a brand extension, it reminded me of what once was, when the music was magic, when you needed to get closer, when you had to know everything about it, when your deepest desire was to be part of the touring party yourself, having an experience you can’t get anywhere else.

You don’t sit (or stand!) listening to Chris Stapleton and judge him negatively, saying you could do that yourself, listening for the hard drives, the triggered effects, it’s soulful, it resonates in a way that you know but rarely experience anymore. This is what the dinosaurs used to deliver. But Stapleton is not calcified, he’s making new music, he’s having success, he’s the most respected performer in Nashville, wins all the awards, everybody wishes they could do it his way, throw off the constraints of  Music Row and do it their way, but they’re too afraid, they’re worried about their careers more than their music.

I didn’t grow up in Kentucky. Driven through a couple of times, stopped once, but when it comes to the south, I’m a voyeur. But for some reason the south is known for the most authentic fiction and in many cases the most authentic music. You can do it without airs, even though some do. But if you strip it down and still have appeal, you’re a star. Like Johnny Cash, like Willie Nelson, they’re beacons, but most can’t see the light.

I’m not telling you to see Stapleton if you hate this music, if there are not enough beats per minute for you. But if you lived through the pre-internet era, when you had to leave the house for action, when it didn’t come through to you at home, when you had to go to the bar to meet people, to have a chance at love, Stapleton’s show will bring it all back, without sounding ancient, but totally present. When you strip it all down it’s about playing and songs, you need nothing more, and when you get it right anybody can feel it, anybody can see it.

You’d think we’d have more Chris Stapletons. But we don’t. Most people want success fast, or they want to take another direction, they’re not all-in. And of those who are all-in, many just don’t have the talent, the je ne sais quoi that separates the stars from the rest of us. You know it when you hear it.

And I heard it last night.

NOTHING LASTS

As Rob Thomas told me, it used to be a tiny funnel, now it’s a colander. You pour your music in and it slips right through. All the hoopla of yore that had an impact no longer does. Release parties, press…all the buildup means nothing. Except if you’re a superstar, and even then you can put out a new track and it can instantly disappear. The game has changed. You’re in it for the long haul. Your customers are your fans. Be in constant contact with them. You have to be in play to get lucky. Don’t listen to the dinosaurs telling you how it used to be, that era is gone forever. You need more product, more frequently. To satiate the hard core fans and to have more opportunities to get lucky. It’s nearly impossible to manipulate the system today, the key is to keep playing and if you’re good enough, you’ll grow, however slowly. If you have a moment of impact, expect it to decay faster than ever before. We live in a hit and run economy. And it’s not because today’s younger generations have short attention spans, but incredible sh*t detectors, which is why they can stream a TV show for five hours straight but skip your track after five seconds. You can go down the road less taken, don’t worry about creating hooks in early in the song, be focused on the art, but then you’re either good enough to make it, or you’ll be wandering into the wilderness and probably die. Revel in your momentary victories, but get back to work tomorrow. What is important in the morning is oftentimes forgotten in the afternoon. Yes, you are trying to create lasting music, but that comes down to the music itself, not the game. And if you think terrestrial radio is the end all and be all, you must be in the broadcasting business, or be a Boomer or Gen-X’er working at the label. Today’s active music listeners discover music elsewhere. You need to have an online strategy first, always.

TECHNOLOGY

Don’t be afraid. However, the channel is clouded with left behind boomers and young wannabes. We are never going backward, we are never returning to the past. Don’t lament the past days when people would listen to a record and do nothing else, when they’d listen to the whole thing as opposed to cherry-picking singles. Your hard core fans will stream everything you’ve got, which is why when you go to see Zach Bryan they know every song, never mind Noah Kahan, never mind Taylor Swift. These artists mean so much to their followers that they’re all in. But never forget, Taylor Swift started in a different era, originally in country music in the aughts, she crossed over to pop a decade ago, the landscape has changed since then. Think narrow and then expand, don’t go broad and then try to create dedicated fans. We are no longer in the big tent business, but the slice of population business. Don’t worry about reaching everyone, but just some. And early adopters will be there forever as long as you don’t try to go wide and play to the masses too early. But if you think AI is the devil, you also thought drum machines were the devil. And Spotify the devil. And what do we know? They’re all here to stay, having eviscerated past models. Use them in new, creative ways, don’t lament the old days. The future only goes in one direction, forward. Sure, there’s a business in horses, like there’s a business in vinyl, but it’s de minimis, a gnat on the ass of the aforementioned horse. Vinyl is about money, pure and simple. It’s a souvenir. Despite all the hoopla, most people are not listening. And if they are, it’s on crappy systems. Streaming is where it’s at.

SPOTIFY IS YOUR FRIEND

If you complain about Spotify, the joke is on you. Sure, writers should be paid more. Sure, the bundle concept needs to be addressed. But the bottom line is streaming pays about 70% to rights holders and if you’re not making bank either the label is taking most of the money or no one is listening. The model has changed. Don’t think about selling things, but access, streams, lifelong fans. Do you still buy DVDs? No, because this material is available on demand, whenever you want it (don’t e-mail me and tell me what is unavailable, you’re a nitpicker and missing the point). Music is on demand, ownership is so far in the rearview mirror that youngsters don’t even think about it. As for the aforementioned Swift selling dozens of versions of her new album… She’s a pop star, she won’t be at her peak forever, this might generate momentary revenue, but it ultimately alienates fans. You’re in bed with your fans. Treat them like brothers and sisters. Do not rip them off and always make them primary. Hits are evanescent, fans are forever. You want fans. And if you’re a rock band, tell all your fans to stream. That’s where the revenue is. If you’re a star there’s a ton of money to be made on streaming, but first and foremost see it as a low barrier opportunity for people to hear your music. You don’t want any barriers between you and a potential fan, monetization always comes last, remember that.