1. You will delete your MP3s.

Just like you tossed your 8-tracks and cassettes, you’ll get rid of your MP3s, all your iTunes purchases, kaput, evaporate, just like that. It will happen when you get a new computer, which isn’t as frequent as before, but the truth is we’re moving to flash storage and it’s more expensive and you get less and you haven’t got room for your music files, never mind the inclination to listen to them.

Just like you wanted the biggest iPod but are satisfied with the smallest iPhone, you won’t find it necessary to pay extra for more flash storage even when the price comes down, whether it be in computers or mobile handsets. Because everything will be stored in the cloud or delivered to you when requested.

Hoarding MP3s is like hoarding hieroglyphics, who wants an ancient format no one can read? Especially when it’s just bits and bytes!

Eighteen years, that’s how long a format lasts.

LPs… 1964, the advent of the Beatles, to 1982, the advent of the CD.

The CD… 1982 to 2000, when usurped by the MP3.

MP3s? By 2018 they’re HISTORY!

2. Plays will be the metric.

Just like radio shifted to spins, how much someone listens to your music will be the only thing that’s important, furthermore, listens get you paid.

This will be a revolution, a good one, the SoundScan era is history, sales charts make no sense. Companies ramp up the publicity for an initial sales week that media publicizes, all to do it again the next week for new records. This reduces the chances of something sticking. Whereas when plays becomes the metric, we’ll instantly see what has stuck. Just because it was released last week or six or nine months ago, it won’t matter, because we’ll see people are actually playing it. And that which is heavily-hyped but left unplayed…beware.

3. Media will promote spins.

Yahoo already lists the top ten Spotify tracks every week. In the future, a media outlet will still talk about number one, but not how many albums or digital singles were sold, but how many plays it got. It’ll be like YouTube, on Spotify there’s a counter too, you can see how you stack up. Suddenly data is not hidden, it’s there for all to see. And the truth will be that the blockbuster era will continue. We’ll see huge winners and a sea of also-rans. We’ll be on the outlook for that which is making huge gains. It will all be based on data, as opposed to today’s smoke and mirrors.

4. Payouts will be high.

It’s all about scale. Once we wean everyone from MP3s, once everybody pays for music, whether it be monthly or baked into the subscription, a huge pot of money will be generated, 69% of which will go to rights holders. So, if you’ve got an ancient, poor-paying label deal, the company will get most of it. If you’re striking a new major label deal…think about what you’re giving up, recorded music revenue, in exchange for the company’s ability to spend and muscle and make you a star. You can stay independent and keep all the money, but your chance of rising above is diminished, especially in this world of overwhelming input.

5. It’ll be mobile.

Spotify develops for mobile first. Not only will you have a smartphone, chances are it will be large, because it will be your primary screen, where you shop and dial-up your music, you want to be able to see and make sense. Think of your handset as the new iPad, just a little bit smaller.

6. Discovery will be in the Spotify app.

It’s all about the real estate, you don’t want to jump around. You’ll roam around Spotify the same way you roamed around the record store, but inventory will be much greater and access will be instant. If your company is a recommendation engine not aligned with a streaming service, good luck!

7. Pandora survives.

Or is bought and merged. But if it survives, its impact will be marginalized over time, because we live in an on demand world, the future is on demand, not wait and see. Pandora is too valuable to be purchased by Spotify. And it’s hobbled not only by royalty payments, but the fact it’s not worldwide. In other words, you might love Pandora the way you loved your BlackBerry, as in temporarily.

8. iHeart Radio stalls.

It’s not on demand. As for listening to your terrestrial station on the Internet… Pandora eclipses that, there are fewer commercials. Clear Channel’s digital play is not revolutionary enough, it was billed as a Pandora killer when Pandora was not the correct target.

9. Passive listening.

That’s what radio is. Spotify’s got a component. There’s a market for that. But not run by algorithms, but people. Which is why SiriusXM is so successful, all those people paying to get rid of commercials on their music stations (as well as Howard Stern.) In other words, Clear Channel is in a bind. Promoting a legacy system without legs. If you don’t think terrestrial radio will be diminished, you’re still listening to AM.

10. You will share Spotify playlists.

We live in a sharing economy. You’ll send songs. This is a good thing, this is how we break bands. And inboxes won’t be cluttered-up with MP3s, waiting for them to download, eating up space, getting lost in spam folders, however expect to be spammed by wannabes, just like they have done forever in the Internet era.

11. Sound quality will improve.

It’s all about bandwidth. And LTE is faster than many people’s home connection. And mobile providers are already pondering an even faster generation. The faster the bandwidth, the fatter the pipe, the higher the quality. Remember, there was no YouTube before broadband.

12. Data charges are irrelevant.

Not only did T-Mobile just obviate them for music services, Spotify synchs all playlists so no signal is needed, the “streams” live on your handset, just like files. So even if you’ve got no cell signal, you’ve got your music.

13. It’s not about Spotify.

It’s about streaming. Google’s new service could be the winner, but let’s hope not, because it pays less. Or maybe a reinvigorated Apple Beats. One thing is for sure, one service will dominate, it’s where we’ll all go, because we want to share, we don’t want to be left out. So you might like Rdio or Deezer, but if you send a link and someone can’t play it, that’s not gonna work.

14. Exit strategy.

Just like Apple bought Beats, Facebook or Google or Amazon or even Microsoft might by Spotify. Don’t forget, Google bought Motorola and Microsoft bought Nokia. If you can’t compete, you buy.

15. Bottom line.

Don’t get depressed, it’s all about the music. Make a good tune and these services are your bitch. They allow you to reach the whole world instantly. And if you haven’t, maybe you weren’t meant to. Maybe you’re not that talented, maybe you make niche music. But as people see what succeeds, it will spark their creativity. They’ll see the high standard, they’ll see what’s left field that breaks through. The only problem we have today is everyone’s got a voice, and those who don’t win complain, whereas we didn’t used to hear from them. Ignore them. Focus on the winners. Spread the word about them. And know that if your identity is based on liking something no one else does, chances are you’re going to live a very lonely life.

FEELS LIKE THE FIRST TIME

1977…the beginning of corporate rock or the last hurrah before disco?

There were five rock stations in L.A. From soft sounding KNX on the left hand of the dial to the free-format alternative of KROQ on the right.

But most people listened to what was in between, most famously KMET and the last man standing known as KLOS, and suddenly, on these twins, so close to each other at 94.7 and 95.5, appeared a song so infectious in the spring of ’77 that I literally drove to the record store to buy it.

That track was “Feels Like The First Time,” a veritable symphony concocted by the previously unheralded Mick Jones, fronted by the even more unknown Lou Gramm, the most famous man in the band was horn and keyboard player Ian McDonald, a refugee from King Crimson.

You can either say it’s overproduced, or revel in the multiple instruments, the changes in dynamics and nod your head and say THIS IS GREAT!

If all Foreigner ever cut was this initial single, they’d still be remembered today.

Furthermore, the song is not meaningless. We all know the concept, and this track gets it across…IT FEELS LIKE THE FIRST TIME!

And you wonder why you’re sitting at home with Pro Tools with a modicum of skills and a mediocre voice and you’re not famous…BECAUSE YOU’RE NOT MICK JONES, YOU DON’T HAVE THE PIPES OF LOU GRAMM!

Decry the major label system of yore, but the truth is they had the best, and the bar to entry was high and those who made it to the top were truly talented.

LONG, LONG WAY FROM HOME

I’d be lying if I told you I loved the initial album, I bought it so I played it, and this was my second favorite track from it, it seemed genuine, authentic.

HEADKNOCKER

This made sense as the discography evolved. This is classic Foreigner, loud, in your face and dumb. It sounded that way from the very first play. And the band went further in this direction, which is why I stopped buying the LPs. Still, with distance this is quite listenable.

HOT BLOODED

Stupid, like “Headknocker.”

Sure it’s infectious, you couldn’t avoid it on the radio, Foreigner was considered part of the canon when their second LP “Double Vision” was released in ’78, still… It bugged me. Not so much now, but definitely then.

BLUE MORNING, BLUE DAY

Worse, but more authentic. This is another “Double Vision” cut that we heard endlessly on the radio.

DOUBLE VISION

Just hearing the riff brings me back, this was a cut like the ones by Foghat that FM played every weekend when boys without girls were driving in their cars drinking beer looking for action. The radio was the soundtrack, in a way it certainly is not today.

DIRTY WHITE BOY

And by time “Head Games,” the band’s third album, was released in ’79, I was actively down on them. They seemed to be paint-by-number efforts for the heartland, there was no depth.

This is stupid. With hooks. But not exactly forgettable, maybe because we heard it so much.

HEAD GAMES

And what can I say, I’m denigrating the band, but I liked this then, and I love it today. The album’s title track has the essence of “Feels Like The First Time,” the opening flourish which hooks you immediately, the dynamics, but it’s second tier compared to that masterpiece. However, the chorus goes straight to the heart…

Head games
It’s you and me baby
Head games
And I can’t take it anymore

It resonated then, but it’s definitive today, since I’m so much more experienced with the games that are played. Lou Gramm sings like he’s lived it, the emotion comes through, he means it and we believe it, WHEW!

And the change right after the chorus, who comes up with this stuff?

GENIUSES!

URGENT

The apotheosis, “4.”

What do you do when you’re at risk of becoming a caricature, when you’ve played out the obvious, when you’ve riffed on white boy angst far too much…

You hook up with Robert John “Mutt” Lange after AC/DC, but before Def Leppard, you concoct a sound so infectious your album dominates the charts for the better part of a year, you induct yourself into radio royalty, if not the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

Then again, Mutt’s not in there either. And that’s an oversight so grand they should close the Hall down, or kick out everybody who’s inside based on music made after “4.”

Come on, I love Eno, he’s talented, but why does he get so much ink and Mutt does not?

Because Eno’s fashionable and cool, whereas South African Mutt is a studio rat who does no publicity but who cannot only oversee the sessions, but write the songs, sing them and play them all by himself.

All the hype was about the Junior Walker sax solo, from a man who hadn’t been heard from since the sixties, but the star of “4” is most definitely Mutt.

Have you heard that intro on a previous Foreigner album? That same blending of instruments? Without Mick and Lou there’s no album, but Mutt takes them to a whole ‘nother level.

“Urgent” sounds just as fresh thirty-odd years later.

If you’re not smiling while you’re listening to this, you can’t.

WAITING FOR A GIRL LIKE YOU

Bookends “Feels Like The First Time” as the greatest Foreigner tracks ever, and it sounds completely different.

Just imagine driving in your car alone, late at night, as this came over the radio, nothing felt better.

I know, I’d push the buttons searching for it, even though I owned the LP.

Come on, the lyrics are so simple, yet so true, but it’s the feel.

Suddenly Foreigner took it up a notch. Instead of playing to the mullet crowd, they went for the suburban gents who were well groomed and educated but just couldn’t make it right with girls.

It comes over the horizon, in a fog, that’s what the intro sounds like.

And then the steady groove, with the raindrop synth notes.

And then, the story….

So long
I’ve been looking too hard
I’ve been waiting too long

It’s like you start off in the middle, you’re immediately enraptured, “so long”… He’s pouring his heart out from the start.

It feels so right, so warm and true
I need to know if you feel it too

That’s what we’re all looking for, mutuality. We feel it, do you? Do you dig us, can we count on you?

Now I know it’s right
From the moment I wake up till deep in the night

The few extra words, the rhyme, it’s so simple, yet so right.

I’ve been waiting for a girl like you
To come into my life

We all are. We’re told to be proactive. We’re told to search.

But it always happens by accident.

JUKE BOX HERO

Sure, another song about fandom and inspiration, but it’s Mutt’s tricks that put it over the top. The explosion after “guitar,” even more the sound under “six string.”

That heartbeat bass, the dynamics. You love it from afar, you’re blown away when you concentrate, you may think it’s easy to do this, but it’s not. Sure, they were not creating a new genre, but they were concocting a sound that had the whole world listening, and that’s POWERFUL!

I WANT TO KNOW WHAT LOVE IS

Sure, a monster hit, with an overplayed video, but the truth is it’s a rewrite of “Waiting For A Girl Like You,” and therefore I could give it no credence. Remaking your hits means you’re anxious, you need to maintain your success, but you’ve got to grow, you’ve got to test limits.

But it is good, especially the pre-chorus:

In my life there’s been heartache and pain
I don’t know if I can face it again
Can’t stop now, I’ve traveled so far
To change this lonely life

THAT WAS YESTERDAY

Kind of a blend between old Foreigner and new, it’s a more modern, slicker, slightly toned-down effort reminiscent of their pre-Mutt work. Good, but not especially memorable.

SAY YOU WILL

“Inside Information” is more forgettable than “Inside Information,” but this one cut presages Lou’s solo career, it’s more him than the band, it’s good.

I DON’T WANT TO LIVE WITHOUT YOU

What the hell, I’ll include it, even though it’s formulaic and forgettable. It was the band’s last hit. And then they were done.

THE FLAME STILL BURNS

Or were they…

Co-composed by Squeeze’s Chris Difford and Mick Jones, this is the Foreigner hit no one knows and no one’s heard.

But it’s a smash. The legendary hit of Strange Fruit.

Huh?

You can count the great rock movies on one hand. “A Hard Day’s Night,” “Help,” “Quadrophenia” and…

A great rock movie should not be for fans only. It should play for everybody. And “Still Crazy” does.

Huh?

No, “Still Crazy”‘s not that great, but it’s far above average, and almost no one saw this English production, but you should, of a band reuniting twenty years after its heyday and…

Stephen Rea was famous because of “The Crying Game.”

Billy Connolly was not the icon he is today.

This film featured journeyman actor Bill Nighy’s breakout role, from here he became a star.

Jimmy Nail is now starring in Sting’s play in Chicago.

And if you don’t fall in love with charismatic band manager Juliet Aubrey, you don’t like brunettes.

Rent it. You’ll dig it. I guarantee it.

Meanwhile, watch the clip from the film on YouTube here:

Still Crazy – The Flame Still Burns

Listen to the entire eight minute cut here:

Strange Fruit – The Flame Still Burns

It’s majestic, royal, like a Queen cut, even though it sounds nothing like one, because it’s a Foreigner song.

The reformulated band finally covered it acoustically, I’ve included it in this playlist.

CODA

I’d be remiss if I didn’t include one other ingredient, the dear departed Bud Prager, who managed this band to the top, with the help of the Scotti Brothers, who he gave one percent of the records to in perpetuity to ensure their success.

Rhinofy-Foreigner Primer

It’s not about the product.

That’s the dirty little secret of all these tech companies, the goal isn’t to create a good product, but to SELL OUT!

It’s like a game of musical chairs, where the buy-in is millions, and everybody’s afraid to be left without a seat at the table when the music stops.

And the problem is it’s affected music too.

Today’s game is to find someone to fund your art, get someone else to sponsor it, and to then focus on lifestyle. Your goal is not to thrill the alienated poor at home who lay their hard-earned money down to support your career, but to remove yourself from them, live behind a wall and fly private.

It’s income inequality, it’s the coarsening of society, it’s elected officials who are beholden to corporations and lobbyists, not their constituents.

We used to look to artists to be the anti, but today they just want in. Everybody in Hollywood wants in. Universal’s got an incubator. WME invests in tech. And Ashton Kutcher is revered not for his acting ability, but his investment prowess.

And I find Songza unfathomable. There are too many playlists, and when you find the one appealing to you, you find a dreck to hit ratio that’s horrifying. Because it’s about filling out the list, not true curation, where every cut counts, like the deejay used to do.

But deejays don’t get paid enough, the radio ones, not the club ones.

And Jimmy Iovine said it was all about curation, but if he truly cared about art, Beats headphones would sound better and we’d all be talking about the playlists on Beats’ music service, but we’re not. There was a flash of publicity, and then…nothing, other than a sale to Apple.

As for Songza, I don’t need a cooking playlist, I just need ten damn tunes I want to listen to all day long. Hell, I’ll listen to the same ten songs for a week. Ever buy an album and do that, play nothing but it for seven days straight, I have numerous times. I want to go deeper, I’m not a grazer.

But grazing is the new pastime, what else can the festival be called.

So where’s the antidote?

Give credit to that Kickstarter progenitor who refuses to go public, even though I find the service shaky. At least that guy is all about the vision. And art is all about the vision.

We love Neil Young because he does it his way, because he won’t make a deal with anybody, fearful they’ll taint the only thing that counts, the music.

But everybody under sixty believes selling out is a badge of honor. We’re inundated with statements that kids don’t care. But that’s untrue. That’s just businessmen pontificating, looking for their cut.

So a bunch of nerds bought the music app of a bunch of faceless New Yorkers.

We don’t need more tech, we need more artists!

And the truth is we’ve always got time for the original who’s got something to say and the ability to say it, the ability to play and sing.

And this is no one on the “Voice,” that’s the worst exponent of selling out, both the contestants and the judges.

And this is no one writing songs by committee.

But there must be people out there who believe the music is enough.

Certainly the audience feels this way. They’re hungry for authentic. What’s number one rolls off their shoulders, what speaks to their souls is FOREVER!

I hate everything about Lana Del Rey except the music.

How can it be that things move so fast that everybody but fans ignore it, how can it be that something is number one one week, with the attendant publicity, both celebrating this fact, and the run-up hype thereto, and then be thrown upon the scrapheap a mere seven days later?

There’s no context. Especially if you’re not in high school. You want to delve into new music, but you don’t know where to start. You read about stuff and check it out and are unsatisfied and say there’s no good music and then you’re bombarded by people telling you everything is good. Huh?

She changed her name, she inflated her lips, she had a disastrous SNL performance, but the grooves have sustained Lana Del Rey’s career.

I don’t trust “Billboard.” I don’t trust Amazon or iTunes, if someone paid for it, they like it, it’s human nature, and the only other people reviewing the cuts on these sites are haters.

And Mediabase squeezes out the alternative, and doesn’t show what’s bubbling under.

So I’ve taken to the Spotify Top Lists. That’s where I discovered “Cruel World.”

I listened to the new Ed Sheeran, and it embodied what Rick Rubin said it would in his BBC interview, it sounds like Ed’s live performance.

I listened to Lorde, it wasn’t as good as “Royals,” but it was certainly decent.

And then I listened to this. Because the buzz from the last album’s “Summertime Sadness” has become deafening, because those who believe in Lizzie really do so.

And I was stunned. Because “Cruel World” didn’t sound like everything else, not even close.

It’s not Top Forty radio ready.

And it’s not alternative.

It’s got the polished, slick production the major labels can afford featuring players who know their craft. The indies pale in comparison.

And the lyrics.

It’s like a modern day Doors record. It’s dark. She’s the female Jim Morrison. In tone, if he only sung when he was stoned and if she wrote slightly better lyrics.

Or she’s Lou Reed with a better voice.

Shared my body and my mind with you
That’s all over now

We do live in a sharing economy! But what’s striking is Lana’s the anti-Katy, the anti-Rihanna, she’s not employing post-feminist girl power, all about physique and outfits, it’s almost like she’s on drugs in a dark room and is telling you her story and doesn’t even care if you’re listening, which makes you want to!

And the track is nearly endless. 6:39. And although hypnotic, repetitive.

But so intriguing. It’s what music used to be, not playing to the station or the masses but just you, the individual, who wants to participate but is flummoxed by society. That’s what records used to be, comforters, even if they were metal, they were blankets to wrap ourselves up in to stay warm, to survive.

The publicity was inane. The newspaper controversy about dying. If you couldn’t see it all as manipulated hype, you can’t read. When someone is selling something, they’ll say anything, the dramatic gets ink. But the records today usually feature this same attitude, let me beat you over the head, let me throw everything at you, let me be overdramatic to convince you I’m better than you and you should pay attention to my explosion while I whore myself out to every corporation who’ll have me. But “Cruel World” evidences none of this.

Got your bible and your gun
You like your women and you like fun
I like my candy and your heroin
And I’m so happy, so happy now you’re gone

HUH?

Where did this come from? It doesn’t sound like the protagonist even has a Facebook account, she certainly doesn’t tweet, she texts to connect, but she’s not interested in the big world, only her own, which makes us want to delve in too, because we’re sick of self-promotion, that of others and ourselves.

And I want each and every one of you to listen to this song.

A good thirty percent will hate it outright. You know, the guys with the tattoos who believe rock must be loud and edgy and…

And those who are afraid… Who flinch at profanity, who want no controversy.

But the rest of you will be struck just like me. THIS IS WHAT PEOPLE ARE LISTENING TO? THIS IS A BIG ALBUM? HOW FANTASTIC IS THAT!!

Yes, the hype turned me off. In this case, the music is enough.

It’s everything it used to be, but it’s different, and it’s brand new.

AND BETTER THAN MOST TV!

P.S. And on Spotify, unlike the lame Sam Smith. Keeping his album off the service so he can enter the charts at a higher number. Either you’re part of  the problem or you’re part of the solution. Once upon a time the big acts were leaders, Aerosmith put out the first Internet single, today the bigger the artist the more they’re wedded to the past, WANKERS!

Cruel World – Spotify

Cruel World – YouTube