NO ONE KNOWS EVERYTHING

If your goal is world-domination, give up. Hell, people don’t even know about shootings these days. You’ve got to operate in your niche and hope to cross over but don’t expect everybody to know you or your work, it’s utterly impossible, the only one with 24/7 attention is Trump.

POLITICS RULES

It drives the culture. It’s more important than entertainment and sports. Entertainment can INFLUENCE politics, but so far this has not happened. Entertainment has power, but it has been abdicated.

GETTING A TV SHOW IS NO LONGER THE HOLY GRAIL

And you don’t even get rich. Getting a TV show is like getting a Grammy, if you haven’t got one, you’re not in the industry. It won’t be this way forever, at least on television. There will be a separation between winners and losers, HBO/Netflix/Amazon and everybody else, budgets will sink and outlets will fail but right now distribution is fighting for the ultimate prize of dominance, and in this case distribution also owns content, so it’s a double-whammy. Distribution is king, but without content you’re screwed. Which is why Spotify is beholden to the labels, but Netflix is ultimately beholden to no one.

HIP IS NOT

There’s no such thing as hip anymore. Hip requires a cohesive society wherein those non-hip can be branded so and feel bad about it. Now everybody’s fighting just to be a member of any group, everybody’s overloaded with input, they don’t care if they’ve missed out on this or that, they’re willing to be hipped.

BEING FIRST IS NO LONGER A BADGE OF HONOR

Of course there are exceptions, buying the first Tesla S, the new iPhone X, but the truth is today’s world is social and it all does not matter until everybody else is involved. So, your goal is to bring others into your group, not to be self-satisfiedly superior.

COLLEGE DEGREES DON’T MATTER TO ENTREPRENEURS

In the old days, of the boomer, getting an education was a prerequisite to middle management. Today’s world is ruled by entrepreneurs, a skill innate more than taught. If you’re gonna use your education to get ahead you’re probably gonna work for somebody else, they’re the only ones who will be impressed.

INSTITUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEVALUED

In an era of haves and have-nots, no one likes to be told how it is or what to do unless it agrees with their preconception. So we’re totally tribal. It used to be we all paid fealty to a layer of unified society sitting atop us, now it’s only the members of that society who believe they rule, they don’t.

BOOMERS ARE TOAST

They don’t set trends. They spend money. But usually not on the new, but the old.

POWERLESSNESS RULES

You can protest all day long online, but you don’t seem to be getting anywhere, you always feel a party of one broken down by the system.

BINARY IS KING

Haves and have-nots. Stars and proletariat. There is no middle. Not in anything. The Asians can manufacture more cheaply and the behemoths have scale which allows them to not only lower prices, but make better products. If you’re coasting, you’re heading towards the bottom. America is one big race, whether you know it or not.

PEOPLE HATE CHANGE

Sure, there are early-adopters, but most are convinced they’ll lose something in the transition. But the new always happens, embrace it. You may laugh at AI, but you’re gonna be using it.

FOOD IS ENTERTAINMENT

And it’s bigger than movies and music, and quite possibly TV. Funny how people will bitch about the price of concert tickets, but they’ll drop a hundred bucks for dinner no problem, never mind fight for a reservation long in advance. Food is like art used to be, it doesn’t scale, it’s totally unique. And, once again, there’s an underclass, those who go to chain restaurants.

DOUBLE DOWN IN TIMES OF CHANGE

He who cuts to balance the books/maintain margins loses in the end. No better example than the L.A. “Times,” there’s little there there. Amazon did it right, ignore the Street.

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM WILL PARALYZE YOU

Don’t pay attention to the blowback, those people are just mad that you’re on the front line and they are not. They want to tear you down and force you to do it their way, even though they’ll jump to the new way overnight, best example being Netflix, the public cried when it went to streaming, angry DVDs by mail were being de-emphasized, and then they all went to streaming.

ASK DON’T TELL

We live in an information society and you don’t know all of it, admit when you’re uninformed.

COLLECT INFORMATION

Winners see all sides. You can only do this by gathering different opinions. He who adheres to only one is ultimately left behind.

KARMA AIN’T INSTANT, BUT IT STILL RULES

Just ask Harvey Weinstein or Bill O’Reilly…they thought they were getting away with it, but they didn’t. It’s the story of all criminals. If you’re crossing the moral line expect to pay for it.

They are going to pay more and own less but they are not going away.

Think of the labels as marketing entities. They can help grease your path to success. But do you need them?

Only if you make popular music, i.e. songs that are on the hit parade, i.e. the Hot 100, otherwise they’re not worth their while, it’s better to keep the money while they do a miniscule job of working you to minor formats, like Active Rock or Adult Alternative. Major labels are into money, not art, and if they can’t make any, they don’t want to be involved, and they don’t want to make a little, they want home runs or grand slams, otherwise it’s not worth oiling up the machinery.

Don’t argue against the reality, embrace the new world.

One of the biggest bottlenecks pre-internet was getting your music into a store. And even if you could do this independently, you had trouble getting paid, without a steady stream of product. But now everybody can get their music on streaming services for a small fee, and can get paid direct and regularly, and this is a great boon, because even if you were owed money by the major in the past, they’d account twice a year and hold reserves, but in the non-physical world there are no reserves, so this is a good thing.

The major labels are not into developing talent, but they are into developing careers. They can take you from zero to hero, but they are not interested in a long hard slog where they allow you to experiment and figure out who you are, it’s too expensive and time-consuming. But if you want to go to the moon, quickly, the label can help.

But it’s not the only way there.

At this late date you can use internet tools to establish your own career. Social media is better than any of the old publicity tools. However, you can get lost in the shuffle. But don’t assume the major can help you out, they want you to do the heavy lifting/posting, and they only want to sign you if you’ve made headway, so…

You’re on your own in the beginning, everybody is, and then you either get traction or you don’t. Don’t tell the label how great your music is, SHOW THEM!

But once you’ve established a beachhead you have negotiating power. This is a critical moment, you’re going to have to give to get. Once upon a time recordings generated a ton of cash and the labels were satisfied with that, now they want a piece of everything.

Unless you’re willing to say no.

This is the big change. If you’re looking for big daddy, or a bank, sign a heinous deal with a major. But now contracts are wide open, every one is unique, so…

You can get better terms.

The old days of the label raping and then starving you are done. They’re gonna give up more in fairer deals. They have to. Because there’s now an alternative path, proven by Chance the Rapper, and never underestimate the power of a leading light, this is not Trent Reznor axing his label, going indie and then going back to the major, no, Chance was built from the ground up without a major, knowing that recordings are not everything. Today you have multiple income streams, with touring usually being the largest, why give up any of that action to a passive investor, i.e. the label? The days of solely being a recording act are through. You not only tour, but you get sponsorships, sell not only merch, but clothing lines and perfume and games and so much more. Because you want to be rich. Everybody likes the money, especially after they’ve been exposed to those who have more, which is what success will give you. Think opportunity as opposed to oppression.

So the major is gonna have to pay a higher royalty/split with more frequent payment.

Also, the next big change is the end of ownership. This is heinous. You sign a deal, pay off costs and then the major still owns the copyright. Expect the major to go to a licensing arrangement.

As for exposure, the major’s forte…

If you want major radio, you gotta sign, but radio is fading, it can make something big bigger, but tracks get started online.

But the majors also have an undue impact on playlists. Will Spotify remain independent? After Jimmy Iovine goes, with his fealties to the majors, will Apple still care about the majors? Amazon?

This is unclear, but one thing’s for sure, it’s better than it was. Radio is a closed shop, but streaming is more open. You can leverage relationships and culture to get added and streamed on the service.

As for the majors’ ownership in Spotify…

Expect that to end. The majors are public companies run by contracted employees who are not in it for the long haul. They’re gonna cash out soon after Spotify goes public.

However, never underestimate the majors’ catalogs. It’s their assets that give them power. An indie has trouble because they have no catalog to pay bills when times are fallow. Also, the majors use their catalogs as a big stick, distributors need them to function.

So, the majors are not going to disappear. And the odds of a giant indie replacing them and becoming a new major are low.

But the majors are gonna take less and be more honest, the landscape demands it, they are no longer the only option.

And this is good.

She should have stayed country.

In the world of pop you live and die by the hit. In Nashville once you’ve made your bones you’re a star forever.

You see Taylor miscalculated. She put out a pop album when hip-hop rules.

Doubt me?

Check out the Spotify Top 50, where “Gorgeous” is only #6. Sure, it’s got an upwards bullet but these days we know whether a track is successful instantly. It’s in the Spotify data, one can measure skip and save rates and it took less than a day for Gaga’s album to underperform.

But at least Gaga is true to herself.

Swift wants to compete with everybody.

But Post Malone’s “rockstar” is getting 2,379,623 plays a day on Spotify. That’s #1. The same act’s “I Fall Apart” is #2 and is getting 1,145,071 streams a day. This is further indication that Swift has faltered, since “Look What You Made Me Do” was a chart triumph, but “…Ready For It” never quite climbed the hill, and then fell back down.

#3 is Logic’s “1-800-273-8255”, with 1,036,612 streams a day.

#4 is 21 Savage’s “Bank Account,” with 1,027,778 streams a day.

Lil Pump’s “Gucci Gang” is #5, with 1,000, 935 streams a day.

And then we come to “Gorgeous,” which has 910,008 streams a day. And one can say that’s not a lot less than what’s above it, then again, right behind Swift at #7 we have “Havana,” with 876,281. And then Cardi B and Khalid also have tracks eclipsing 800,000 and…

We live in a world of consumption, it’s the only thing that matters. A turntable hit is a thing of the past. Radio can’t prop up a stiff. You get paid by consumption, i.e. streams/listens, so it’s the only thing that really counts. Sure, there’s PRO money on radio, but it’s de minimis compared to streams.

As for sales…

Here’s a whopper. On iTunes “Gorgeous” is #5! Eclipsed by Imagine Dragons’ “Thunder” at #1, and Ed Sheeran at #2, and “rockstar” at #3 and the aforementioned “Havana” at #4.

As for Spotify, Imagine Dragons’ “Thunder” is at #39, with 494,013 streams a day. And we can argue whether the band’s fans are streaming, but the truth is we’re evolving into a world where sales are done and on demand streaming is everything and you live and die by the statistics.

So we can debate all day long whether Swift has been impacted by her publicity shenanigans. Hell, at this point the media covers her a lot less, did you know she played “Reputation” for 100 fans? That’s the old paradigm, where publicity of these stunts mattered, now it doesn’t. People get their info online and they go directly to their streaming site of choice and see what’s happening, they’re sick of being manipulated.

This is important, because the music business has been built upon manipulation, and that will still be a factor, but when you cut out the middleman and go directly to the consumer you lose a lot of control and find out…

Just like country triumphed on SoundScan, unexpectedly, hip-hop triumphs on streaming services. Doesn’t matter whether you’re a fan or not, this is what everybody is listening to.

Meanwhile, Carrie Underwood is still a star in country. Miranda Lambert too. Whereas Taylor Swift has been excommunicated by the format, she turned out to be untrustworthy, a traitor. Used to be Taylor Swift was in the Taylor Swift business, now she’s in the pop business, competing with everybody.

And “Gorgeous” ain’t bad, sounds like the rest of the work Max Martin and Shellback are involved with, it’s just that it needs a better singer, Taylor Swift’s voice is weak, whereas with Kelly Clarkson, Ariana Grande or Katy Perry it would have a much more dramatic impact. As for the lyrics, they come last, they always come last. And in an era of chaos, Taylor Swift is too me focused, she’s out of touch with the times.

But this is not about Taylor Swift, but your career. Beware of wanting everything, be satisfied with the niche you’ve established. If you can remain true to yourself and succeed, more power to you, but if you bend to trends you live by trends, and the trend has skewed away from pop divas and as a result the tide is going out on Taylor Swift.

Everybody’s arguing about Cardi B.

Taylor Swift is last month’s news. She broke the cardinal rule of the internet, which is you’ve got to be part of the discussion 24/7. She’s so tightly managed (and wound!) that she’s inaccessible, in an era where everybody is a star they don’t want to be talked down to by a faux friend.

And I don’t care if she writes another song about me, NO ONE WILL LISTEN!

U2 tried to be au courant. Madonna too. They ended up being laughable has-beens. There’s nothing wrong with being a has-been, you can still tour, bleeding your acolytes, hell, look at Def Leppard’s ticket counts, but when you try to succeed in the new game it’s creepy. Unlike Bob Dylan, who’s in the Bob Dylan business. Then again, the only people interested in his covers are the press, not one track from “Triplicate” has broken a million on Spotify, ditto “Fallen Angels,” whereas every cut from “Tempest,” his last original work, exceeds seven figures. We want originals from Dylan, and the data tells us that. Used to be you bought the album, played it once and filed it. Now you check out a few tracks and move on.

Not that experimentation is bad. But fan abuse is.

So, if Swift were smart, she’d can “Reputation” and put out a hip-hop track, since she missed the times. Hell, a mixtape like Drake, with her favorite hip-hop favorites as well as a number of her own works in this field. And sure, Taylor Swift rapping might be laughable, but Debbie Harry got away with it.

Then again, she was a lot more credible.

OLD

Believes in the album.

YOUNG

Believes in the single. It’s all about the track, if you like something you go deeper, it’s about a body of work, click on an act in Spotify and you find what’s most popular and you check that out, assuming you care, and many people don’t, especially in hip-hop, the song is part of the culture, the same way British Invasion singles were part of the culture.

OLD

Believes in CDs.

YOUNG

Doesn’t have a CD player. They don’t come in cars, assuming you’ve got one, as millennials move to the city and Uber, and new computers don’t come with them, if you’re still sending someone promotional CDs it’s a reflection upon you, they’re worthless.

OLD

Passive.

YOUNG

Active. Sure, a millennial might put an online radio station, albeit generated by Pandora or Spotify, on in the background, but more likely they’ll be streaming a playlist, in the background, they don’t play terrestrial radio, the commercials are abhorrent and you can’t skip ahead, millennials see the web as their oyster, they’ll click and go from one site or track to another.

OLD

Will listen to the radio.

YOUNG

Won’t. It’s part of the on demand culture. The youngster doesn’t want to wait, that’s an experience that’s dead. Kinda like how cars replaced trains. With a car you could go where you wanted to go whenever you wanted to.

OLD

Buys files.

YOUNG

Sees everything as on demand, you don’t need to own anything, not a car, a movie, a song…

OLD

Laments the passing of the golden age.

YOUNG

Thinks the present is bright and the future is brighter.

OLD

Cares about “Billboard” charts.

YOUNG

Only cares about unweighted charts based on raw statistics. I.e. Spotify streaming. Unfortunately, Apple Music doesn’t reveal its statistics, to its detriment.

OLD

Worried about YouTube.

YOUNG

Will use YouTube when it wants to watch a video, but only the brokest of the broke use it as an everyday music service. YouTube for music is dialup, Spotify/Apple/Amazon is broadband

OLD

Laments the passing of music on MTV.

YOUNG

Never thought that MTV was a music outlet, always saw it as a host for lame reality shows.

OLD

Stuck in the past.

YOUNG

Pioneering the future. The young have no problem switching allegiance from Facebook to Snapchat to Instagram while oldsters are set in their ways and have a hard time chucking aside the past to live in the present.

OLD

Thinks a band is a credible, self-contained entity speaking truth.

YOUNG

Thinks a band is a brand, whored out to corporations, establishing enterprises/brand extensions that will rain down coin. Music is just a platform to make money via your fame.

OLD

Bitch about the price of concert tickets.

YOUNG

Save up money and overpay for what they want to do, they know it’s a mercenary culture, and if they want to attend, they pony up.

OLD

Sees a major label record deal as the holy grail.

YOUNG

Is aware of Chance the Rapper, and is reluctant to share revenue with a parasitic corporation when they can use the online tools to break themselves.

OLD

Expects acts to last.

YOUNG

Knows acts are evanescent.

OLD

Is all about culture.

YOUNG

Is all about culture, that’s what hip-hop provides and other genres do not.

OLD

Stuck in their ways.

YOUNG

Will try new things.

OLD

Believe physical assets are a badge of honor.

YOUNG

Believe experiences are a badge of honor, where you’ve been is more important than what you own.

OLD

Is willing to be spoon-fed.

YOUNG

Wants it all now. The concept that radio goes on tracks months after they’re a hit online is anathema.

OLD

Is prejudiced.

YOUNG

Has grown up with a rainbow of colors and accepts all kinds.

OLD

Fighting for women’s rights.

YOUNG

Believes the women’s movement is akin to the right to vote, way in the past, today’s young women feel empowered, they don’t feel taken advantage of (of course this is a mind-set and not always true but the point is young women were brought up believing they could be all that they could be, so when they hit a wall/are abused by men, they react heavily, kinda like Susan Fowler, who stood up to the bro culture at Uber.)

OLD

Thinks the pace of change is glacial, and will never come.

YOUNG

Have lived through the legalization of marijuana and gay marriage and believe change is right around the corner.

OLD

Worries about sound quality.

YOUNG

Sound quality, what’s that?

OLD

Believe in mystery and inaccessibility.

YOUNG

Believe famous people are open books who are accessible.

OLD

Want to be sitcom stars.

YOUNG

Want to be YouTube stars.

OLD

Stayed at home and practiced.

YOUNG

Practice in public, whilst boosting their brand online.

OLD

Grew up believing money was evil.

YOUNG

Think money is great!

OLD

Laments income inequality.

YOUNG

Knows the score and knows that he not busy getting ahead is falling behind.