And sooner or later
Everybody’s kingdom must end

“The King Must Die”
Elton John

It’s not the boomers’ Coachella anymore, nor the Gen-X’ers. I thought the transition would happen when America’s #1 festival booked Justin Bieber. But now, that old man has been passed over and they’ve gone straight to Ariana Grande. Is this the music business we grew up with?

No!

Actually, the Coachella lineup is an extremely accurate picture of what’s happening in music today, when it’s less about gravitas than social media presence, when the album is secondary to the single, when it’s not about history but today.

Friday’s headliner choice of Janelle Monae reminds me of Michael Jackson breaking the color line at MTV. Pittman said it was an AOR station, Walter Yetnikoff challenged that and suddenly MTV went urban and it became about video production more than songs.

As for the 1975, they’ve been around for a while, but have only become hot in America with their latest album. DJ Snake and Diplo are relative oldsters on this bill, having had hits a few years back. And it’s true, Kacey Musgraves jumps genres and Juice WRLD just made it yesterday and the undercard…only their agents and a small coterie of Gen-Z fans might know them.

So, this is the evolution of festivals, while competitors hunger for legendary superstars, overpaying them for insurance, Coachella has tossed history and entered the present, where a festival is more about the attendees than those on stage anyway. Hell, that’s the modern generation, even though Sly Stone nailed it decades back. Everybody is a star. You get cred by going to the desert, and if you don’t, you’ve got FOMO and are labeled a pariah. It’s about outfits and after-parties and selfies and Instagramming… If they banned mobile phones, attendance would plunge.

As for Saturday, when did Tame Impala become a headliner? Tony Wilson loved them over a decade ago, but I didn’t notice that much increased traction lately. Could Tame Impala headline Lollapalooza? Then again, is Lollapalooza headliner-proof? But not Bonnaroo. Yup, it comes down to the hang. And it turns out people don’t want to camp in the humidity and mud. That’s 2019, the user experience, Steve Jobs had that right.

And once again, there’s a woman of color on Saturday, Solange. But, being politically correct, going pop, killed FYF Fest. But Coachella is bulletproof…

For a while.

And sure, Weezer and Aphex Twin are alta kachers, but Weezer had that Toto remake and…

Billie Eilish is hot today, and Bassnectar is suddenly hot again, and I’m a fan of Christine and the Queens…

As for Sunday, they’ve got Zedd… Meanwhile, competing festivals are booking the comeback of Swedish House Mafia.

And the dirty little secret is Coachella has always been an EDM festival, it’s the Sahara Tent that is the pulse of the weekend. But, where are the other blue chip DJs?

As for MTV… It took a while, but then the station cratered. Granted, it was killed by the internet, but it lost touch before that. Then again, unlike MTV in the nineties, Coachella is covering all bases with this bill.

But…

Is this what passes for revolution in 2019?

Granted, Coachella started a revolution, but had to sell to AEG to survive.

So where are we going? Is this bill evidence of a healthy music business or just the opposite? Too few genuine stars and a bunch of of the moment performers?

Music ain’t baseball, there’s no ongoing tradition, acts come and go, as do genres.

And it’s not football either, which is a coaches game.

And headliners used to be powerhouses, known by everybody, with cultural impact, and you’ve got to give Childish Gambino that, but Ariana Grande? Is it any different from booking Rihanna? Is that how far we’ve fallen, we curate by the charts as opposed to the music?

So in one fell swoop, Coachella has eliminated the past.

Oh, the festival started making inroads last year with Beyonce’s appearance, which has become legendary despite so few seeing it, why isn’t it on Netflix, but this year they’ve thrown the baby out with the bathwater. Today, they’ve disrupted themselves, before others disrupt them.

That’s right, Coachella was on a bad path. Too many reunions of old acts few cared about. It’s almost as if Paul Tollett read Clayton Christensen’s legendary “Innovator’s Dilemma”… You keep serving your hard core audience and then one day a competitor owns everybody else and is bigger. Then again, the disruption starts off inferior and cheap. One can argue the 2019 Coachella lineup is inferior, but it’s definitely not cheap.

So, you’ve got to give credit to the Goldenvoice team. They made a move. They didn’t rest on their laurels, they reinvented Coachella. It was not an evolution, it was a long time in coming, but it happened.

Now the question becomes whether the audience is with them.

Is today’s music as important to today’s audience as classic rock and its derivatives were to boomers and Gen-X’ers?

I doubt it. Back then, music was everything, now it’s just a piece of the pie.

Even worse, the business is mature. Run by corporations. The barrier to entry looks low, but the truth is it’s not that different from the FANG players, i.e. Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google. You can start independently, but if you don’t sell out, good luck. Snapchat was imitated by Instagram probably to its death and Emporium sold out to Live Nation like all those entities hoovered up by FANG. Music is fluid, but the business?

So one asks where the new excitement will come from.

Actually, there are a ton of acts with fan bases that don’t fit the Coachella paradigm at all, just pick up “Relix” and see. Musically interesting, but business..?

There are acts doing their own festivals, but…

To a great degree it all looks like been there, done that. You collaborate with a known star, your story is pasted all over social media and you sell your services to one of the big corporations. It’s easy to despise it just like so many despise D.C., it just doesn’t resonate with them anymore.

Meanwhile, the Rolling Stones still play stadiums, and the Eagles too. And it’s not like they haven’t been around, but people still yearn for the songs.

But Coachella no longer yearns for their audience.

The king is dead, the king is dead
Long live the king

Will be a year of transition. Expect the chaos to continue to rule. But by the end of 2019 the future will start coming into focus.

2018 was the year of streaming. Yes, Spotify launched in the U.S. nearly a decade ago, and YouTube before that, but it took that long for the public to catch up with the new paradigm, never mind the business. Remember how long it took CDs to become the standard? At first they were overpriced and rare, then AOL was giving them away and there was only one good track on a disc and Napster happened. But do not expect disruption of streaming. Streaming represents on demand, once you’ve reached it there is nothing after. Furthermore, in the future, we will own less and less, millennials live in smaller places, if you’re all about ownership you’re a Luddite left behind, did you read Dan Neil’s piece Saturday in the WSJ? He said not to buy an internal combustion engine automobile now because it will be worth nothing in five years. Argue with me, that’s fine, but Neil is the automotive guru and he’s behind a paywall, otherwise I’d give you the link. That’s another thing 2019 will continue to bring, haves and have-nots online. If you’re not willing to pay, you’re going to be left behind.

Terrestrial music radio will continue to fade in importance. It won’t be terminal this coming year, but in five it will be. Major labels are preparing by cozying up to streaming services, relationships and a continuous stream of product are everything. Then again, it’s easier than ever to find out whether a track is sticking or not. But expect continued consolidation on the major label front, as in they will control an ever-smaller piece of the pie. They’re signing little, because of the opportunity cost and lack of demand for genres other than hip-hop, they’re like movie studios making superhero movies who were disrupted by…Netflix. There’s a giant opportunity here, the barrier to entry is so low, expect the vacuum to be filled by new players. Then again, there isn’t that much money in music, relatively speaking, and the odds of success are low, which is why big spenders are staying out. But expect millennials to make inroads in music production. The label gives you a bad deal and owns the product and provides less than ever before and chances are they don’t want to sign you anyway. Now is when majors should be investing, altering their model for the future, but they are not. They should have 50/50 deals, ownership should revert to creators, especially after recoupment. By avoiding change labels set themselves up for disruption. If you’re not inventing, you’re losing.

But the demise of the power of the majors will not be evident in 2019. Because radio still means something and too many acts want a check, but watch this space.

Also, 2019 will see the end of hip-hop dominance. It will take at least another six months for those in alternative formats to stop bitching about streaming numbers and get their act together. There are many ways to make money in music other than with recordings. Be thankful recording is cheap and distribution is nearly free, at least you can play! But the story of hip-hop embracing the internet and dominating is long in the tooth. Now we’re at streaming and everyone knows the internet is where music lives. So, other genres will get a push. First and foremost from the audience, which is going to see these acts live, and ultimately the streaming services themselves, which will be embarrassed by the focus on hip-hop and see money in emphasizing other genres.

Once again, if you’re an anti-streaming, physical product person, not only will the revolution pass you by, you’re hindering its furtherance. CDs are not the only thing you can sell at a gig, and no one’s got a player anyway. Think souvenir, not music.

But young acts that embrace streaming but not beats will make inroads in 2019, and word will spread about them. This is a good thing. As for old acts, embrace the present or die.

As for touring, the story of 2019 will be the financial recession. Expect some soft numbers in touring as a result of people not having enough money. The stars will have no problem selling tickets, all others..? And those who put tickets on sale early will dominate. It’s anti-fan, but get your show up soon or be left out later, people will only have so much cash.

Also, MTV died nearly two decades ago, why acts see it necessary to perform their shows just like the video is a head-scratcher. If your career is based on touring, spice up the show, change set lists, have nothing on hard drive. Don’t say the audience expects it, that’s tripe. The audience wants a unique experience that no one else is privy to. Live is about tangible, real. Hard drives and autotune and other sweeteners are about fake. Sure, phenoms can get away with it, but the tide will be turning, more people will see music as the core, the penumbra will be irrelevant, the audience will start to turn on TMZ shenanigans. Sure, you want a steady pipeline between act and fan, a flow of information, but if you’re creating non-musical news on a regular basis the joke will be on you.

Music is far ahead of other entertainment genres. Distribution has been figured out. But the last couple of years have been about a steady flow of new acts the press and the industry cannot keep up with. This is the true internet disruption, the plethora of acts, more than Napster/Spotify. Now that everybody can play, who deserves attention, how is the word spread, what are the metrics that determine success?

Certainly the “Billboard” chart does not, it’s an anachronism. Like Nielsen publishing TV ratings without Netflix. But a new chart would not be about the singular number one, but the group of acts deserving attention. The new playlist will be the best of all genres. We get it, we get it, hip-hop is streamed most, but by just focusing on the most in that genre, not only are we leaving other music out, but their fans too, as I stated above.

Not that hip-hop will die and rock will revive.

Hip-hop is innovative, rock is too derivative.

Rock can only have a renaissance when it features great vocalists with something to say. We’re waiting for someone to fill the mass rock hole, and it ain’t Wilco and Greta Van Fleet is only a harbinger of things to come. We let rock slide for so long, that vocal fans trumpet second-rate material and non-fans ignore it.

Mass will continue to be important.

But mass is relative.

If you can make a living on the action provided by a few thousand streams, more power to you.

But really we’re interested in those with millions of streams, tens of millions of streams, that demonstrates demand. And right now, a good number of non-hip-hop acts have those numbers, but most people are unaware of these tracks, while the media too often focuses on those who few want to listen to.

It is a business. It’s not a museum. Traction, response and momentum are important.

But the great thing about music is although those are difficult to achieve, anybody can do it. You don’t need a degree from Yale, or Berklee, you don’t have to know how to play that well, you just need inspiration.

We’ve got a whole world waiting for your inspiration. But we’ve got so many other options, your inspiration will be ignored if it’s not truly great. But 2019 will be the year other genres get recognition and traction.

But there will not be a new chart, there will not be clarity until 2020.

The music industry has future shock. As do old fans. But youngsters are figuring it out, and they will lead us out of the darkness. Right now it’s like looking through steel wool, but in time the view will get clearer, the next paradigm will come into focus.

And not a moment too soon.

Catch a wave and you’re sittin’ on top of the world

That’s one thing that’s been lost in the rewriting of sixties history, the optimism. We had hope, we believed we could conquer, we believed life was not limited, and the goal was to go to California, ride the waves and hook up with a surfer girl or surfer boy.

Hard to believe, I know. But this was back before the internet, when the west coast was a dream which you could not experience unless you went there, a magical place where TV and movies were made, our entire nation was inspired by the Golden State.

I know, I know, the rest of the country likes to rag on California these days. About rents, pollution, taxes… But the truth is living there is still pretty damn good, but unlike the Okies most residents of our nation cannot afford to leave their domicile to reinvent themselves on the coast, so they denigrate it.

But it still rules.

And the magic was made by the Beach Boys. They were the soundtrack, along with the east coast Four Seasons until the Beatles broke, until the British Invasion. But unlike Frankie Valli and the rest of the early sixties groups, the heyday of the Beach Boys was not behind them. The apotheosis came in ’66, with not only “Pet Sounds” but Brian Wilson’s pocket symphony, “Good Vibrations.” The Beatles were inspired by this work, and for a long while there, the Beach Boys were at the pinnacle of popular music, and Mike Love has never forgotten it.

Everybody hates Mike Love. The self-assuredness, the right wing views… But when you see him live you get it. HE BELIEVES HIS LEGEND! Why do we give Ringo and Paul a pass but not Mike? Because he’s not gracious about it? John Lennon was rarely gracious.

And unlike his cousin Brian, Mike Love still sounds like himself, he can hit the notes, albeit with less power.

So you’d attend this show and expect a battle of the bands, between Brian and Mike and their respective camps, but that’s not what it was like at all. Mike continuously showed pictures and made reference to the Wilson brothers.

And there you’ve got it. Brian Wilson’s show is a tribute to Brian Wilson and Mike Love’s show is a tribute to the music.

Now Brian is a genius. But everyone knows, especially insiders, he has issues. He’s not an everyday guy, even though he still seems able to channel his skill into magical music, listen to the 2012 Beach Boys reunion LP “That’s Why God Made The Radio,” there’s some masterful work there.

But after the 50th anniversary tour, Mike said he was going on without Brian, doing Beach Boys hits. And Brian’s camp was not happy. But when you reach your seventies, it’s about money and attention, and everybody wants it, especially Mike, who’s angry he never got enough credit for writing so many of the Beach Boys’ lyrics. Performers are complicated people, you cannot see them through the eyes of the hoi polloi, the hoi polloi didn’t write and record these songs.

And the show opened with “Do It Again,” the band’s last real hit until the Brian-less “Kokomo” two decades later.

But the irony of opening with this 1969 hit was lost on the assembled multitude, the ancient wealthy at the Vilar Performing Arts Center in Beaver Creek, Colorado. You’ve got to pay to see the Beach Boys up close, triple digits in this case, and therefore hard core fans are excluded. But the set list was for those in the know.

Jeff Foskett told me Mike writes a new one every night, the show changes, and usually it goes two and a half hours, as opposed to last night’s limited two hour show.

Ergo, “Catch A Wave,” which Jan & Dean rewrote as “Sidewalk Surfin’.” To hear this magical album track made my night, a flood of memories came back, from the era where I knew every cut on the LP, which I purchased, and sat in front of the record player in my room with the album cover in hand fantasizing how great my life would be if we could only move to California.

And “Little Honda.” The hit version was done by the Hondells, but Brian and Mike wrote it.

First gear, it’s all right
Second gear, lean right

Not only were we singing along, Felice and I were leaning in direction. This show was a jet back to what once was. Not exactly nostalgia, just recognition that we’re on the losing end of the hourglass and some of those times in the past were truly special.

And unlike Brian’s set list, Mike and his troupe played all of the surf and car hits. Come on, “409”?

Does any millennial even know what that is? Will anybody in the future? Back when the goal of high school students was to save up enough money to buy a car.

And “Shut Down.” And then “Why Do Fools Fall In Love” from “Shut Down Volume 2”! Come on, you’ve got to applaud these deep album cuts.

How about “Be True To Your School” from “Little Deuce Coupe”? We’re long gone from high school, but we remember it like yesterday.

Of course they played the hits. Everything from “Wouldn’t It Be Nice” to “I Get Around” to “Help Me Rhonda” to the aforementioned “Good Vibrations.” You could not complain there was something you did not hear. And so many hits… No wonder Mike Love feels so good about himself.

Not that Mike sang all the songs. He gave tribute to Dennis and then his son Christian sang “Do You Wanna Dance.” Brian’s songs were sung by Foskett or lead guitarist extraordinaire Scott Totten.

As for Bruce Johnston…

He did not sing “Disney Girls (1957),” never mind “Tears In The Morning,” but he told Felice he composed “I Write The Songs” as a reaction to radio stations banning “God Only Knows” because of the use of the deity’s name. Foskett and I implored Bruce to come on Sirius XM or do a podcast and tell his stories, but Bruce said everybody knew everything already, and he needed to get paid. But that’s a musician, everyone thinks music should be free, they’re always asked to play for nothing, it takes balls to say you want to get paid. Then again, I wanted to hear more about growing up on La Mesa in Santa Monica with a father who was a bigwig at Rexall. Where we come from…it’s everything.

And Mike even played some of his solo stuff and got away with it!

Because of the video screen. He wrote a song for George Harrison and accompanying its performance was video of the Beach Boys’ and Beatles’ visit to India. Whew! I’d never seen this before, I don’t think anyone has, what a trip back to the past.

And the secret sauce was said video screen. With images from the era. The girls and the boys, the hot rods and the good times. That was then…

And this is now.

The youth are not united, never mind the country at large. But fifty-odd years ago, especially before the Vietnam War ramped up…

We wished they all could be California Girls.

In case you missed the memo, and unless you’re addicted to entertainment industry news you probably did, Netflix just announced its movie “Bird Box” was viewed by 45 million accounts and pundits can’t stop questioning the figure, the methodology, the meaning…

But it’s very clear, distribution is king.

I posit most people were unaware of “Bird Box” until they saw it on their Netflix account, or heard about it from friends. There was not the scorched earth publicity campaign employed by movie studios to make you aware of a film you most likely do not want to see. But you’re paying for Netflix, and since you log in on a regular basis, you saw “Bird Box” was available.

So…

Not only is advertising not a factor, reviews aren’t either.

This is a sea change in the entertainment promotional complex. You must spend widely to make people aware, for a weekend, to overpay for your production. But what if people have already paid and you just need to induce them to view, or not. Actually, Netflix doesn’t care whether you watch “Bird Box” or not, just that you don’t cancel your subscription!

Once again, we see the paradigm shift from one time events to subscriptions. Oldsters still can’t get over this in music, they want to own, but once the industry shifted to streaming, revenue went up!

Counterintuitive only to those stuck in the past. Not only is Spotify good for creators, so is Netflix, with its deep pool of cash and its free spending ways. Sure, the streaming company is overspending now, just like every Silicon Valley, tech enterprise. You invest, you lose, and then you own the market and you’re profitable, can you say Amazon?

And actors just want to work. Used to be declasse to work on television, no longer.

And others above the line like the freedom. There are not the endless studio suits questioning every move.

And the audience likes the availability of new material on a regular basis, scarcity is history, just as it is in the music business. That may be overwhelming, that may be confusing, but it’s the path to the future, even if the NYT tech reporter gave them crap for it.

So welcome to the new world. Where it’s not only superhero movies at the theatre you don’t want to see, but a cornucopia of streaming product, even though “Bird Box” is a genre pic.

And who wants to go to the theatre anyway? With chomping, texting patrons who feel entitled to their behavior because they paid so much.

And you can have a fifty plus inch screen with surround sound for bupkes at home, with no interruptions.

But the oldsters cannot fathom this. Entrenched players cannot fathom this.

But online you compete for dominance. You do this by spending. Good luck Disney and HBO now controlled by AT&T, there’s a first-mover advantage. And the truth is content may be important, but distribution rules. The low monthly Netflix fee is a better offer than the theatre.

Movies killed vaudeville. TV killed movies, just check attendance figures. And now Netflix is killing not only network television, but putting a stake in the heart of theatrical distribution.

Money talks. Sandra Bullock likes the check and subscribers like the value proposition.

What’s not to like oldsters and scribes?