35 Days

Now we know how long it takes for our country’s infrastructure to crumble. You know, like in a disaster movie, after the nuclear holocaust, when they run out of bread and water…but in this case it was the flights. Flying is bad enough, now Frontier wants you to tip your flight attendant, but if you show up and can’t get where you want to go you’re beyond frustrated, and you don’t know who to complain to.

So Trump ended the shutdown, temporarily anyway. Proving that nonsense doesn’t go on forever, or as they say, something’s gotta give.

And it did.

A good lesson to learn. America hasn’t completely gone off the rails.

But with the arrest of Roger Stone and the reference to Frank Pentangeli… I thought the Mafia was eradicated, but it turns out it’s still here, now it is the government, and the only person who needs to survive is Trump. Don Jr., aka Fredo, will be sacrificed, maybe Jared Kushner too, they’re taking one for the team, illustrating “character”…but I thought character was about morality and doing the right thing, boy am I living in a bubble.

And it turns out while Hollywood continues to debate #MeToo, and the “New York Times” keeps adding female opinion writers, the truth is the two most powerful people in America are women, Ann Coulter and Nancy Pelosi. One shut down the government, the other refused to cave. What a movie to watch.

And speaking of watching, did you see Coulter on Bill Maher tonight? She should win an Academy Award, what a great acting job, as you watch her you start to believe that she doesn’t, believe that is, i.e. she’s an entertainer, just like our President, and we’ve been snookered by both.

And if you pitched this as a movie script to a studio they wouldn’t make it, they’d say it’s unbelievable, that it couldn’t happen.

Actually, today I’m kinda glad that Trump got elected. Oh, not really, especially with the Supreme Court, never mind the ability to name other judges and break the economy… But Trump has defined the new reality in today’s America. He’s Napster. He’s disruptive. Just like file-traders were sick of paying $15 for a CD with one good song, racists and the downtrodden were sick of getting lip service from the establishment in D.C., they turned over the table. But now it’s righting itself.

It woke up our somnambulant country. Look at the number of people who voted in the midterms.

And it immediately put the baby boomers in the rearview mirror. Sure, oldsters vote, but it’s the youngsters’ country now, and they’re pissed… Everybody keeps calling millennials crybabies, oldsters have contempt for them, and now AOC gets elected and the whole country moves left.

The oldsters in the Op-Ed pages of the WSJ are flipping out.

But, like I said, they’re old and out of touch, and suddenly the world is run by the “Post” and not the “Times.” begging the question of whether Dean Baquet has a clue, he doesn’t, the paper is lost in a world of upper middle class New York elites, if I read one more anti-technology story I’m gonna…laugh.

As for Fox News, I just listened on the satellite, and they’re flipping out, there’s no way they can see this as good. And meanwhile, the era of the TEA Party and Trump is eroding and they don’t realize it. Sure, Mitch McConnell is old, but younger Republicans in Congress are screwed, especially if the Supreme Court gets rid of gerrymandering, they’re out of touch with the population.

It’s just like the record companies, fighting Napster, refusing to license Spotify to the point that YouTube got traction. And now, of course, Spotify and streaming are their financial savior.

But the landscape looks different, most acts get no purchase, it’s like America at large, winners and losers.

And how can you pay attention to music when the news is so damn fascinating. Unlike old musicians, Trump and AOC and Elizabeth Warren are up-to-date, they’re tweeting, using social media.

And AOC proffers a 70% tax rate and then Elizabeth Warren comes up with a 2% tax on wealth, all of it, and one wonders…WHY NOT?

Just ask a millennial, do you think they have sympathy for corporations and billionaires?

No way.

And they’re much more savvy than oldsters, they know the odds of striking it rich are low, so they’re all about jobs, 24/7, getting their piece of the pie, screw “Shark Tank,” that paradigm is history, dreamers without portfolio asking for bucks, little different from a GoFundMe campaign.

And politics is understandable, whereas media is not. If I read one more story about the Oscars…who in hell, especially under the age of fifty, has seen all these pictures? Talk about being out of touch.

It’s like a silent revolution, not only did the media miss Trump, who got elected, it missed the dissatisfaction of his constituents and now has no clue of the millennial mind-set. That’s what you’ve got to concern yourself with. Millennials don’t care about coal mines, they’re against CAFE rules, if they even know what they are. They may not own cars, they Uber/Lyft and they’re all about global warming, but no one in D.C. other than aged Bernie Sanders seems to think this is our number one problem.

Yup, they tried to take down Bernie with #MeToo, which is a kerfuffle in a bubble. No one outside of the Beltway believes Bernie is responsible and the truth is Bernie resonates with youngsters because he speaks his truth.

As for Michael Bloomberg, the hidden front-runner, Maher went on that he’s anti the legalization of marijuana. In theory, I am too, but if you listen to Gavin Newsom, who pushed it through in California, it’s about keeping people out of jail, eliminating the illegality, he convinced me, maybe Bloomberg is too old.

And the truth is we are living in the sixties, an era the right wing is still trying to eradicate, fifty years later. But we’re in maybe ’66. We haven’t gotten to our ’69 protest moment at the monument, never mind Kent State. That’s right, the entire country has lost touch with millennials. Not only D.C., but the media… Videogames outgross movies, but they still don’t get no respect. Oldsters grew up in an era of opportunity, that’s history. As the aged and the right circle the wagons, want no integration with immigrants, youngsters believe in social welfare and kumbaya. Yup.

But you wouldn’t know that watching the news, whether it be CNN, Fox or MSNBC.

Meanwhile, all those stations keep quoting the “Post” and the “Times,” they don’t do any reporting.

They’re just looking for clicks. They’re as bad as Zuckerberg, and they still haven’t gotten the memo that it’s Instagram, not Facebook.

And rich people don’t want the poor to take their kids’ place at the elite educational institutions, and the end result is those left out are dumber with fewer skills than ever, that’s one of the reasons they voted for Trump, it’s the left that left them behind, and the left still won’t acknowledge it, they just say every Trump supporter is a racist, but that’s not true.

So we’ve come back from the brink folks. Not that we won’t go there again real soon, but we now know there’s a correction factor. The youth and septuagenarian Nancy Pelosi, who proves every day that experience counts.

And we’ve just learned from this experience that our nation can go off the rails pretty quickly, but having seen this movie we’re getting back on track.

You can’t take your eyes away from the screen, TV and the internet, not movie theatres.

It’s the most riveting entertainment of the twenty first century.

Neflix vs. the Oscars

Generational change happens while you’re busy arguing about disruption.

Happened in the music business. For over a decade, we heard about piracy, after the advent of Spotify, we heard about streaming payouts, meanwhile the bitchers got older and the users got younger and the paradigm shifted. In music the oldsters have no chance, because they have not learned how to harness the power of the internet. Never mind e-mail lists, which oldsters still do not have, not knowing that you are the one in charge of reaching your audience, but social media.

Sure, Atlantic Records gave Cardi B a platform, but it’s her Instagram account that is keeping her career front and center. Not waiting years to tweak albums that go ignored, Cardi B is in your face constantly with messages not only about Trump, but hygiene and sex and…it’s a train-wreck you can’t keep your eyes from. Oldsters pooh-pooh this behavior, they don’t understand the concept of a hit has changed. That you break on streaming services, if you’re lucky radio will amplify your track thereafter, and you keep yourself in the public eye by yourself.

Cardi B’s audience does not get the physical newspaper. It is well-informed, there’s news all over their connected devices all day, but their interests vary from those of the oldsters who’ve made it and want to preserve it. They’re worried about the environment, left and right, and paying their student loans and making it and life is so hard that they turn to Cardi B for mindless entertainment, while oldsters keep decrying that it’s mindless. Meanwhile, Cardi B takes a stand against the President and everybody with a career prior to 2010 thinks it’s anathema, they don’t want to antagonize any potential fan, not realizing most people are not paying attention to them anyway and if they had a backbone this would appeal to people.

And now we have the curious case of the Oscars, an aged institution propped up by those who don’t know how to surf the web on their smartphone. First and foremost, the younger generation doesn’t go. And if it does, it’s to the movies that the Academy does not nominate. So while the film industry is up in arms about #MeToo, whether John Lasseter should be entitled to work, what protests will be like during the telecast, on the red carpet, youngsters have no interest in watching and are more worried about what Chappelle has to say about the sexes on Netflix.

Sure, kids go to the movie theatre for event pictures and to get out of the house, but even more they watch streaming video, they’re the ones who made “Bird Box” a hit on Netflix, with its 45 million viewers right after its launch, begging the question of whether you’re better off going into the theatre and enduring theatrical windows or going straight to streaming.

HUH?

This is exactly like the music business. While trying to preserve the old, those in charge don’t realize that the younger generation has rejected it, and moved on to the new.

Just check the numbers. You’re gonna be viewed more on Netflix.

So what’s important, views or grosses?

First and foremost, right now Netflix pays pretty well. And it’s guaranteed. But if you don’t know that views are more important than cash, you’ve missed the hip-hop memo, where being noteworthy leads to riches and if you’re not willing to give it away for free, you can’t get paid. Fans have no problem coughing up cash, when there’s a transactional moment offered. But going to the theatre for fifteen bucks on a whim, and enduring the commercials and the b.s., that’s not appealing.

Like in music, the war has already been waged, and Netflix won.

The story today is that Netflix joined the MPAA. So they’re winning both ways, they’re in both markets. But people watched “Roma” as part of their monthly subscription, even though it played in theatres previously, those that didn’t ban it.

So to survive you have to jump to the future, it’s the only way.

Our idiotic President lowers fuel economy rules at the instigation of the Kochs and energy companies, but the carmakers don’t want this reduction. Did you see that Sweden is gonna halt the sale of gas and diesel in 2030, and Norway plans 2025? That’s right, your internal combustion engine will be worth nothing, but Trump and the Republicans are ignorant of this, influenced by those left behind.

But disruption never stops, if you’re not entering the future, you’re already being left behind. Like in Silicon Valley. Steve Jobs gets rid of legacy ports and the Academy focuses on the Oscars. If the Academy were smart, and it’s not, it would join forces with the Emmys and rule in the future. Consolidation is inevitable. Because filmed/taped/chipped entertainment is the same whether it’s on your mobile phone or on your flat screen or in a theatre.

As for advertising…

The studios spend all that money to reach people who don’t care.

Meanwhile, if you make a deal with Netflix they promote it on their site to people who’ve tuned in to watch. That’s what they call targeted advertising. If you leave behind the behemoth of old, you can still be a star, like Adam Sandler, whose movies get viewed by millions on Netflix but are not covered in the mainstream media where the audience for these films never plays.

It’s kinda like going to number one in music. You’re not satiating the fans, they don’t care! If they want to know what number one is, they just go to the streaming chart on Spotify, or their service of choice, they don’t need no middleman fudging the numbers so those who top the chart can wave their flag in the industry.

Then again, the music business hates truthful data. Except when it uses it to promote acts.

And movies are worse than music. One film a week goes to number one and the rest fail. Wouldn’t these flicks be better off on Netflix?

Look at “Vice.” A small conversation playing in theatres…would have been the talk of Christmas if it was released on Netflix. Hell, the only thing people really want to see in theatres are cartoons anyway, both superhero and digital animation.

But the industry and the media are wrapped up in an old paradigm that is eroding away. Ads on Thursday night broadcast television and billboards. Is anybody watching Thursday night live TV really gonna be motivated to go see this crap, aren’t they the truly out of it couch potatoes?

And the film industry, like the music industry, is looking for scapegoats. It was Rotten Tomatoes, until flicks with bad ratings on the Tomatometer did well at the box office anyway.

But there is no failure on Netflix, they’re paying you up front. So you minimize your losses. But no, the theatre must be preserved.

Meanwhile, comedian Sebastian Maniscalco got almost no mainstream press, but he just sold out four Madison Square Gardens and where does his new special air? NETFLIX!

Sure, the studios are heavily involved in TV.

But the Academy, the Oscars, are so busy being unforgiving and politically correct that they’ve lost their audience. The only people still watching are those who bitch about anything edgy. And that’s what Netflix and YouTube are all about, edginess!

Not that we should ignore sexual harassment/abuse and homophobia, but you must realize the world has changed, and if you don’t change with it, you end up frozen in amber, history.

They’re making new people every day. Who are not burdened by said history. They embrace the new. Look to where they’re going.

They’re the customers.

Pledge Music

Fastball can’t get paid.

I got a call from their manager Ron Stone today. The band was due their 20k on 1/1, Pledge said to wait a while, they’d dribble it out over time. And then when Ron pushed for the money, Pledge went silent, it’s been three weeks now without a return phone call.

So obviously they don’t have the money.

But Fastball has already spent most of it! Making product to fulfill their obligation to their fans who pledged. It’s not Pledge’s money, other than the small percentage the service takes as a fee. They hold the money as a fiduciary. But obviously they’ve spent it.

But Fastball is a small player in their ecosystem, what about the big acts? And do you mean to tell me you don’t have $20,000?

This is just like those festivals that spend the ticket money and then go bust. Assuming the ticketing company coughs it up to begin with.

Then again, these entrepreneurs are not bankers, they’ve got an idea and…

If you don’t have the money, you shouldn’t be taking new clients. And if you don’t have the money…where is the big windfall for Pledge Music gonna come from? They’ve got a fixed percentage, are they suddenly gonna get a zillion more acts so they can pay Fastball its measly 20k?

Or are they waiting for a buyout…

Well who is interested in this low margin business to begin with? And if the present executives can’t make it work, why should someone with a deeper pocket be able to?

Or maybe Pledge just has incompetent executives. Well, aren’t there investors who realize this?

It’s one thing to run out of cash, it’s quite another to use other people’s cash to keep the lights on. It’d be like a bank blowing all your cash and not telling you until it was gone to boot! Then again, the government protects six figures of investment in banks. Beyond that…they figure you’re sophisticated. Come on, are musicians financially sophisticated? If so, they’d be doing something else. Pledge is not only taking advantage of the players, but stealing their hard-earned cash.

And you know Fastball’s fans are gonna blame the band, not Pledge. And how is this going to hurt the band’s image? And their future financial prospects?

Beware.

All The Pain Money Can Buy – 20th Anniv.

The Klarman Letter

Who?

It’s about the money. What did they say in “All The President’s Men”? Follow the money. And if you do, you will find the answers.

Hell, it’s obvious in entertainment, where studios make Marvel pictures and labels release cartoons too. People go where the bucks go. But where are they going?

If you read Fox News, or the “Wall Street Journal,” you’re unaware of the Klarman Letter, it does not appear. But the financial world is shaking as a result of its publication. Seth Klarman is not at Davos, but he’s bigger than Bono and the rest of the celebs who are attending.

You see Seth Klarman is the new Warren Buffett, and Buffett gives Klarman props. And Klarman just released a letter telling the world to be afraid, very afraid. Because of social unrest, the isolation of America, the debt and the denigration of facts.

That’s right, we’re watching the movie right now, but how is it gonna end?

Now the Republicans have been crying about debt for over a decade, but the tax giveback to corporations and the rich have exploded it. How long until there are consequences, until the dollar is no longer the world’s currency.

You see Trump has created a vacuum, it’s jump ball on Earth today. Who is the leading nation. As Britain and America look inward, believing the rest of the world is their enemy, a space has opened up for new leaders. Or as Bob Geldof put it, without the U.K., France and Germany can’t get along.

Geldof has studied it. But most people, most prognosticators, most talking heads have not. They’re myopic, only interested in their own paychecks. That’s right, in reading about the Paramount plunge, it was noted that the execs refused to spend money acquiring the aforementioned Marvel because it would affect their bonuses. That’s how corporations are run. Everybody’s a caretaker. Steve Jobs refused to distribute the billions in the coffer. Tim Cook gives them back to raise the stock which subsequently tanks. Overpaying for nothing. And these are the same dollars that could have been used to buy Netflix, instead of banking on the non-edgy fare in its yet to be released streaming service. That’s right, take out boobs and HBO would have never flown. Boobs start everything, and when a market matures it’s like musical chairs, and those established get a seat. Why does Apple think it can end up with a seat when long term player Amazon is struggling? And why should Netflix fail when it’s Disney that’s spending so much for programming, more than the famous streaming service. Can you say “HomePod”?

But conventional wisdom goes one way, until it goes another. AOC appears and suddenly everybody’s talking about a 70% tax rate, when previously it was all about taxes being lowered. Forget what happens, that’s how easy the dialogue is hijacked.

And now the conversation has been steered by Seth Klarman.

But don’t expect most people to notice. First and foremost, the “New York Times” is leading with the story, and the right has denounced the New York paper to the point Republicans refuse to read it. That’s another thing Klarman warned us about. Everybody in their own silo as a result of websites steering them to like-minded conversations. We were enthralled with the internet titans until we weren’t. Now they control what we see and hear and not only are they opaque, they refuse to acknowledge fault.

So this is the world we live in.

And before you delete this as left wing drivel, know that Klarman was a Republican before Trump. As many rich are. They want to make and keep their money without restraint. Meanwhile, those without money vote Republican because of social issues and a remembrance of what once was. Trump’s election was a protest vote.

Which speaks to the social unrest Klarman is talking about.

And everybody agrees that a recession is coming. It’s just a matter of what it looks like and how bad it is.

And it affects you. That’s right, where and what your job is, if you have one at all. You have a responsibility to be informed. But so many shirk this. But they know when they’ve been screwed. Globalization is inevitable, but those who took advantage forgot about those disadvantaged. But that’s the world we live in today, it’s everybody for themselves.

But we live in a society and we all have to get along.

Read the article below, even if it is in the “Times.”

It’ll get you thinking, and wondering, where are we going?

That’s what the money is worried about.

“Chilling Davos: A Bleak Warning on Global Division and Debt”