What is Happening to Streaming’s Superstars?

My conclusions:

1. The major labels are screwed.

2. Rock isn’t as dead as we think it is.

3. When other genres adopt streaming, hip-hop’s hegemony will decline.

Tim Ingham brings to attention the fact that the top five acts on streaming platforms have lost market share.
In other words, the rich aren’t getting richer.

“Overall on-demand audio streams in the United States in 2018 grew by a very healthy 42 percent year-on-year, to 534.6 billion. Yet in the same year, the top 50 streaming tracks claimed just 0.7 percent of these plays, down from 3.9 percent in 2017.”

Now if you go to BuzzAngle’s 2018 report of consumption:

Consumption Breakdown

you’ll find that Rock is the #1 in album sales. Rock has 26.5% of that market. Pop has 26.3% and Hip-Hop/Rap only has 5.2%.

Rock also dominates digital album sales, with 25.7% to Pop’s 24.9% and Hip-Hop/Rap’s 7.6%. Pop wins the Physical album sales and CD sales, but by a tenth of a percentage over Rock in physical, and 3% in CD sales. Hip-Hop/Rap has over 20% less market share than Pop and Rock in these two categories.

Rock wins vinyl. Begging the question of whether Rock fans are old farts. They’ve got the disposable income and remember when. 41.7% of vinyl sales is Rock, 25.6% of vinyl is Pop, and Hip-Hop/Rap only has 6.6%.

However, Rock doesn’t do too well in Song Sales, with 15.1% of the market, whereas Pop dominates with 25.6% and Hip-Hop/Rap has 14.7%. It seems that Rock fans want to buy whole albums, Pop and Hip-Hop/Rap fans just want the hit. Then again, are Rock fans just old farts stuck in their old ways?

Because when it comes to total streams…

Hip-Hop/Rap dominates, with 25.4%, Pop has 18.5% and Rock only has 11.4%.

So, Hip-Hop/Rap dominates streaming. Will it continue to do so?

One thing’s for sure, the superstars aren’t that super. This is not like the old days, where there was a limited amount of product and if you couldn’t get on the radio, good luck. Everybody can play now, and it causes chaos. We want order, but we’re not getting it. People want more than the hits.

But the major labels are only signing the hits. They’re not exploring new genres, they’re just going for a larger share of an ever shrinking pie.

Furthermore, it doesn’t appear the major labels have any idea how to sell what is not pop or hip-hop, i.e. sounds you can get on the radio and get instant traction with online. Of course there are exceptions, don’t e-mail me about Billie Eilish. But Billie just illustrates the audience is more powerful than the industry. Just like “Old Town Road” on TikTok. The industry keeps chasing trends instead of getting in front of them. The same way they were behind with Napster and streaming too.

More stuff sells, you’ve got to sell more stuff, or otherwise customers will go somewhere else.

All the levers in the major label world mean less. Radio is declining in power and the big stations, as stated above, are just Hip-Hop and Pop.

TV is nearly irrelevant.

And as far as a deep pocket… The majors won’t cough up dough until you prove yourself, then why do you need them? You’ve put years into developing your base, and now you’re going to cash out for one check?

I don’t think so.

As for rock, Jason Flom could be the smartest guy in the business. Ignoring the naysayers, he’s pushed Greta Van Fleet to stardom, eclipsing not only many Pop and Hip-Hop acts, but everyone in the Adult Alternative/Non-Comm/Americana world. It seems that people want something more familiar, less edgy, less far from what they know. At least in the Rock world. And, once again, Led Zeppelin’s debut was fifty years ago. At what point is it okay to be inspired by them?

And, once again, Rock kills on the road. It’s dominated by oldies acts, for sure. But if you go to one of these shows, it’s not only oldsters in attendance, there are always youngsters there, wanting to draw from the well.

Then again, we could be seeing the last gasps of Rock. When it moves to streaming, maybe it won’t make a big dent. But something is gaining ground, i.e. market share/percentage in the streaming world, other than the superstars.

In other words, everybody may have a smartphone, but that does not mean they’ve adopted streaming. Rock fans say they want to own. They’re ignorant and don’t know tracks can live on the smartphone and are playable outside of cell range as long as the device has power. In other words, they’re late to the party, as they were to social networks.

Or maybe there’s a subculture of young Rock fans who aren’t that into streaming. Maybe because there aren’t acts as good as the Eagles and Fleetwood Mac, never mind Zeppelin and Ozzy, and if someone tried to follow in their footsteps, the kids would be eager to stream them.

So Hip-Hop fans are early adopters. Hip-Hop seized the opportunities online. Rock and the rest of the genres saw the internet and streaming as the devil, to their detriment. It’s like those bitching about electric cars, self-driving cars… The truth is electric cars are gonna dominate and it won’t be long before you don’t even own one. Then again, you’ll be in the know sooner when the transition happens, because it’ll appear on the streets. When it’s online…many miss the message.

So it turns out the limited choices of the pre-internet era did not reflect the public’s true desires, they wanted more.

And generally speaking, this more is not aligned with the majors, they don’t think it will scale.

But in the aggregate, it’s bigger than the hits, way bigger than the hits.

Once again, if you want to know what’s going on, you’re probably best off looking at concert grosses. Because that’s where people pony up their bucks.

Turns out there’s tons of opportunity out there for non-hit acts. It’s cheaper than ever to make, distribute and promote and if you’re longing for the twentieth century, before the internet, when it was all different, the truth is you probably couldn’t have gotten signed by a major anyway, you’d ‘a been dead in the water. And if you made money on record sales back then, you’re now upside down, but in terms of ticket sales, you’re making more money than you ever did from record sales, check the grosses. And if you’re bitching about traveling from city to city, doing the work, you’re no different from the coal miner or auto worker whose job disappeared. You’ve got to adapt.

Hip-Hop has.

But everybody else has not.

We might ultimately find out that when it all settles Hip-Hop still dominates, that’s possible, but one thing’s for sure, a plethora of acts will have traction.

Yes, that Dean, of Jan and Dean.

Dedicated readers will know they were my first faves, before the Beach Boys. I played their album “Command Performance” until it turned grey (which is what happened when you had a heavy tonearm, before the heyday of audiophile turntables in the late sixties and seventies). I made my mother drive from store to store until I could find blue sneakers. In the days before Vans, they were a rarity. Everybody wore white, with a few holdouts still wearing black from the fifties. And I had the striped shirts too. And when we went on a family trip cross-country I insisted we go to Malibu, where I rented a board and rode the waves, even stood up. Then again, I’d had some experience in Atlantic City. And this was before the Surf Punks informed everybody that they needed to go home, because the waves were just too crowded.

Jan was an underrated genius, he has not gotten his due. He wrote and produced and recorded. With a bunch of high school buddies. Dean was one of them, and the two of them…

At first, Dean was giving short answers, believing this was the typical interview, but once I told him to go on at length, he came out with so many stories…I realized this was the definitive statement, and I let him go on as long as he needed to.

Was he a BMOC at USC? (That’s “Big Man On Campus” for those unfamiliar with the acronym.) NO! He might have had number ones, but those were in pop music, and everybody on campus was into FOLK MUSIC!

And I’ve never heard some of these Beach Boys stories before. At least not on this nuanced level.

Now at some point this generation is gonna die. And the roots of rock and roll will be sealed in amber. And sure, Jimi Hendrix never wanted to hear surf music again, and Frank Zappa pooh-poohed it, but maybe that’s because it was so endearing, because it captured the essence of SoCal life, because it was so successful. Want to know what’s a hit? Listen to those Jan and Dean records, they got you in one listen, you had to hear them again. Somehow we’ve gotten lost, maybe as a result of the free-format album era that succeeded them. Given all the tools and all the time and space, it turns out many people have nothing to say, at least not in a way that immediately grabs you. Can you write a hit single? Can you record and release a hit single? Most people can’t, but that was the essence of Jan and Dean’s success.

Listen.

iHeart

Apple

Spotify

Stitcher

Can Michael Lewis change the world?

We’re addicted to narrative. If you can tell a good story, there’s a market for you. There’s a dearth of good storytellers, despite the plethora of television shows and books, but if you nail it, we’re interested.

Michael Lewis is an incredible storyteller in print.

He’s not quite as good in the audio format.

But that doesn’t matter here, because the points he is making, the examples he’s using, kick you in the stomach, make your head spin and cry out HALLELUJAH, SOMEONE’S ON MY SIDE!

And which side is Michael Lewis on?

I don’t think the average person considers him a lefty. And after you hear his story of Cambridge Analytica, you certainly won’t think he’s on the Democratic team. But one thing’s for sure, Michael’s against the inequities of the financial system, and only a few people support that rip-off world.

So the first episode is about basketball. Like I said, Lewis is not the best podcaster. You’re not quite sure where he’s going and his voice is neither soothing nor addictive. It’s like some guy who you’re not sure if you like telling you a story you’re interested in, and boy are you interested. But you’ve got to listen a while to get hooked.

The episode details refereeing in the NBA. Talks all about this center in New Jersey where plays are reviewed, on the fly. And that’s interesting, but not as interesting as the final segment, the heart of the matter.

The people who complain most are the superstars. They feel they’re entitled to have things go their way. Then it’s expanded to people in expensive cars, they don’t obey the rules. And suddenly you realize the ultra-successful don’t see the world the same way you do, you react to it, they frame it. In other words, superstars of sport and commerce believe the game should yield to them, as opposed to vice versa. And we love and hate them for it at the same time. You can read their books, take their advice, but it never works, because they’re different at the core, they’re ENTITLED! This is when you realize the rich get richer and really, no one’s on your side, as my father used to say, “shnooks get screwed.”

The second episode is all about the financial system, how it’s built on screwing the rank and file. The narrative concerns a schoolteacher, who owes a ton in student loans, but the company which manages them for the government is built on obfuscation. It doesn’t tell her about loan relief, doesn’t inform her of the essence of forbearance. Each rep is only given seven minutes per call, and their paycheck is more important than your obligation so they throw you off. Meanwhile, the head of the company makes millions. Why?

But even better is the segment on Elizabeth Warren. It’s segments like these that could get her elected. It tells her history, how she was a bankruptcy law professor who felt there should be a government agency to protect the public. No one cares until she writes an obscure journal article, which suddenly gains traction. This is years ago, in the aughts. And the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau becomes a reality after the economic crash. Its mission is to stand up for the people. But then Trump gets elected and it’s neutered. Hell, they spend millions trying to rebrand it to try to diminish its impact. This is where corporate power comes in. The Bureau was not beholden to Congress. Which meant that the lobbyists, the people who own the elected officials, couldn’t meddle. And the financial institutions didn’t like this, so they had it stripped of power. There’s not a Trump acolyte alive, at least not one that’s not a zillionaire, who wouldn’t listen to this and ponder their allegiance. Who is sticking up for them? Never forget, it’s all about obfuscation in politics, it’s about personality and social mores rather than the real issues. Hell, that’s one of the reasons Warren is castigated, she’s a wonk. Who cares whether she has Native American blood or not, can she help the little guy? The truth is the powers-that-be don’t want the little guy helped.

The third episode is about the Cambridge Analytica scandal. Facebook throws the researcher under the bus, and his career is ruined, he can’t get a job and he owes a ton of money in legal fees. The bottom line…it didn’t work. That’s right, Cambridge Analytica’s data was worthless. The professor said he could predict personal characteristics at best with 1% accuracy. But that’s not the story online, in most of the news media. In other words the crowd got it wrong, there was no wisdom in the mass. Kinda like that guy who blew the whistle on Theranos and attorneys attacked him and his parents had to mortgage their house for his legal fees and the end result was…HE WAS RIGHT!

Gets even worse. Margaret Sullivan was the Public Editor of the “New York Times.” But that job no longer exists, news outlets believe the crowd online will keep them in line.

And this is where Lewis posits we need a referee, to get the story straight, to get the facts straight.

That’s what we’re missing…everybody’s making up their own facts, to their own advantage. Good luck spreading truth, people don’t want to hear it. Corporations don’t want exposes and penalties and they want to keep people voting against their interests.

But think of that… What if we had an online referee?

As for Facebook, it sacrificed the professor to save itself. It couldn’t be their problem, but it is! Because they’re wealthier with a whole cadre of publicists and lobbyists.

That’s what ties all the episodes together. The issue of refereeing. And the fact that no one is happy with what’s called, even if there is a referee. The NBA refs are light years more accurate than before, listen to the first episode for explanation, but the players aren’t happy, the fans aren’t happy…what chance do we have with corporations and politics??

Now the thing about podcasts is they’re a private experience. You can’t multitask, you miss the point.

And there are all kinds of podcasts, some no different from radio shows, but many go much deeper. In a so-called era of short attention spans, listeners can’t get enough.

And Lewis is working for Pushkin Industries, the new podcast company formed by Malcolm Gladwell and Jacob Weisberg.

Now at this point, I’m skeptical of Gladwell, because he skews the facts to fit his narrative. But that’s not how Lewis works, he tells the facts and then analyzes them and makes a point. Gladwell’s a better storyteller, but not only his elocution and over-confidence start to bug you, but if you know anything about what he’s talking about, you sometimes find out he’s wrong. Is Los Angeles known for its luscious private golf courses? I’ve never heard anybody say that. Bowdoin doesn’t serve steak and lobster on a regular basis, but Gladwell neglected to contact the administration to find out the truth. And when confronted with his mistakes, Gladwell just doubled-down, isn’t that what’s wrong with America?

Then again, I give him credit for this elite podcast company. To extract the best prices for advertising.

But it’s still the wild west.

But the narrative hooks you. It’s the antidote to the in-your-face shenanigans of the influencers and entertainers. It’s more serious, the Lewis podcast makes you think, you remember thinking, don’t you?

Tune in, you’ll be stimulated. And you’ll be convinced the country can’t be fixed, but it can sure be a lot better. And fairer.

Against the Rules with Michael Lewis

Software rules.

And geeks have inherited the Earth.

I wasn’t going to watch the Apple presentation. Steve Jobs is dead and the excitement seems overblown.

But not on Monday.

You see I didn’t like the news reports, they just weren’t in depth enough. So I dove in, I watched the two hour and seventeen minute presentation. And I’m glad I did, because now I know what is truly going on, and I look forward to extracting the power from my devices when the software launches.

It’s a hardware world in the media, run by old farts looking for metrics to make the incomprehensible sensible. Like iPhone sales. These were the same wankers who thought the gravy train would go on forever. But users knew you had to upgrade to the iPhone 5 for LTE and the 6 for the big screen. After that?

Sales started to decline, and Wall Street looked at these numbers. But they’re no longer what counts.

Usability. Pushing of the envelope. Power. Those are the code words today.

It’s like we’re back in the seventies, at the Homebrew Computer Club. Only geeks are paying attention, and then you watch this presentation and you get excited about the possibilities.

The mainstream news is about the death of iTunes. This was on Mac sites weeks ago. AND IT’S NO BIG DEAL! All Apple is doing is exploding the app into three. Which is the way it already is on the iPhone, the device of choice. What, am I supposed to be reminiscing about Word 1.5? Or the days when a spell checker was an add on feature you purchased?

Once again, the mainstream gets the story wrong.

But the reporters were right about privacy. That’s clear from the beginning of the presentation. Even better is the ability to log in with Sign In With Apple. You don’t want to give all your info to Facebook, now you don’t have to give up your info at all. I could explain it, but you’re better off watching the presentation. Then again, you won’t. But you also cough up your privacy on a regular basis and then bitch about it afterward.

They started with the Watch. I returned mine, I just couldn’t see it, I’m too damn old. I don’t want to put on my reading glasses every time I raise my wrist. But the demonstration was convincing, especially with the info right on the Watch, it no longer needs to be tethered to your phone. But then I also thought about the short battery life, that’s the only thing holding this device back.

As for the iPhone, it’s all about iOS 13. iPhone users upgrade the software on their devices, Android users don’t. It’s eighty five percent to ten percent.

But they tell us Android rules the world.

And Android is a pretty good product, but if you pair it with a PC… Windows has come a long way, but it’s still got the look and feel of a techie-only device. The techies bitch about the lack of customization on the Mac, but that’s a small fraternity, they can live on their PCs.

It’s all about features, which Apple added. I know, I know, that’s not sexy to the hoi polloi, but it is to those in the know. And the truth is upgrading your phone is now like upgrading your laptop or desktop computer, you only do it when the device is long in the tooth and it can’t handle the new OS, or is too slow to work effectively.

As for the iPad, it now has its own OS, but it will never be a desktop replacement, but if you’re a Pencil user…

I’m not, I only wish I was. But drawing is not my thing, and I don’t mark up documents.

Kinda like I don’t write software. But listening to the AR and Swift talk, it almost made me want to.

Like in the days when computing was a hobby, not de rigueur.

As for the new operating system Catalina, it too was about features.

That’s why I blew two hours plus, I wanted to learn about the features not included in the news reports, because I want to extract as much power from my devices as I’m able to. That’s right, there are the power people and the powerless. And if you’re the latter, you really don’t know what’s going on.

Then again, we live in a world where so much is going on, no one can grasp it all.

But the mindblower was Minecraft Earth. The demonstrator put herself in the game. You’d have to see it to get it. And it made me realize the kids know what they’re doing, if you want to get them out of the house you’ve got to build something exciting, or they won’t go. Baseball has no chance against videogames. You can see why eSports is such a big deal. But most prognosticators have never been exposed to these games, they’re brain dead in front of the flat screen. It’s almost like music in the sixties, burgeoning, big, but the mainstream didn’t get it until Woodstock. There will be a Woodstock moment in videogaming, just you wait. Could just be the money involved, but it’s gonna be something that shows the oldsters they’re on the wrong path.

So, the world is being pushed further by software. Sure, Apple released the halo Mac Pro, but if you’re spending five figures on a computer, you already know all this, and now only pros will truly pony up for this stuff. Hell, the monitor STAND is nearly a GRAND!

But you were wowed by the features.

Emojis and Memojis are the entry points. But your devices have much more power than that. But chances are you don’t know that, you probably have never even used AirDrop.

Yes, the leaders are pulling away from those who’ve been overloaded, who no longer care. But if you don’t understand software, you don’t understand the future. Like those in government trying to regulate Facebook. Believe me, limit the social media giant and something else will pop up, just like KaZaA blew up after Napster closed.

Oh, and one more thing… There were women presenters, even a handicapped presenter, to the point where you wondered if Apple was picking these people based on their identities. But, they did a good job of presenting, not only males are into computing. Or gaming for that matter.

Your devices will do more than just surf the web and send e-mail. You can now edit your photos easily, without having to be a pro. The big wheel keeps on turnin’, and you’d better get on the Proud Mary or you’re gonna be left behind.

Apple Special Event. June 3, 2019.

And if you pull up the status bar at the bottom of the screen, you can see dots. Hover your finger or mouse over those dots and you can go directly to the part of the presentation that interests you most.

To see Minecraft Earth, go to 2:01:15, even better, navigate to a few minutes before to 1:58:45 to see the technology that makes this game possible.