Keep/Sell/Buy?

Tune in tomorrow, Tuesday November 19th, to Volume 106, 7 PM East, 4 PM West.

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Is it about catalog or originals?

Verizon gave me a free year of Disney+ since I’m an Unlimited customer. I’m always wary of these deals, since you end up being charged and not realizing it, and oftentimes it’s hell to cancel. But I wanted to see what was going on.

Not much.

We used to get a thrill from hardware, now we get a thrill from software.

I went through the prompts. From the text to the Verizon site to Disney’s.

Then I turned on the TV and pulled up the Roku. Entered my e-mail address and password and I was inside. It was kinda like buying an iPod or iPad, but virtual. The aughts were about hardware, the teens have been about software, even though oldsters just can’t understand how you pay for something you don’t own.

But ownership is passe. Especially if you’re old. You realize you can’t take it with you, and in truth no one is counting. You can gather all the totems, believe you’ve won the game, and then find out you’re the only one playing it. Especially today, when everybody is in their own silo.

On paper, Disney+ sounds interesting. IRL? Not so good. You see you’ve seen everything, at least all you want to see. And the new product… I mean come on, “Star Wars”?

And then I went back to AppleTV+. You’ve got to hand it to both Disney and Apple, their interfaces are slick, but when you dig down deep their new offerings are thin. As for Apple…it seems they want you to buy things. Who came up with this model? Build your library? Weren’t we supposed to get rid of our libraries? With digital books, Felice wonders why we should keep the hard copies. And the truth is, I never reread a book, I put them on the shelf to demonstrate an accomplishment, what I’ve read. But the truth is the only people impressed by physical libraries today are the ones out of the mainstream. With everything at your fingertips, it makes no sense to own. Furthermore, digital is easier to search!

But if you went to an east coast college, it’s hard to let go of this old paradigm. Hell, it’s what’s driving the vinyl comeback. People want to own something. But it’s akin to Civil War re-enactment, a hearkening back to what once was. And if people even play this vinyl, so many of them have “stereos” that will kill it in one spin, they’re better off listening through hundred dollar headphones.

So what do I want to watch?

SOMETHING NEW!

Hmm… But the media keeps telling us the most popular show on Netflix is “Friends.”

Then again, at this point “Lucy” is nearly burned out. All the sixties shows on endless reruns, “Mayberry R.F.D.”…turns out they don’t interest the young ‘uns.

But they do want to watch “Seinfeld.”

Hmm… Probably the best sitcom ever. But once upon a time it was created out of thin air, did you see the NBC exec who pushed for it just died, how he took money from his specials budget to pay for it? And now, Jerry and Larry are rich.

New products keep the flame burning, the cycle going.

I never watch a movie again, life’s too short.

Then again, I know people do.

And I’ll be honest, oftentimes Springsteen’s “57 Channels (And Nothin’ On)” goes through my brain when I’m searching for a streaming show.

Because I don’t want to waste my time, I only want greatness.

Most of the new shows on Netflix are not great, but there are more pickings there, I can find something to watch. On Disney+ and AppleTV+?

But ain’t that the establishment…studios, distributors and the media. They’ve got an investment in the past. When what excites people is the future.

So right now, Netflix is looking stronger. It’s got the most production. It’s not hobbled by relationships with cable systems.

As for those worrying about profitability, now is not the time. Netflix needs to produce and produce and end up on top, win the war.

As for Apple dripping out episodes of “The Morning Show”…that’s a failed strategy. The theory was if you drip it out, you create water cooler moments. But the truth is everyone agreed the initial episodes sucked, and now they’ve got no interest in seeing the rest, even though word of mouth is better on the later episodes. Proving even Apple has no idea how the customer thinks, how word is spread. You’ve got to let people FINISH! So they’ll testify! Yup, if someone has watched the whole series and says it’s great, the odds are better you’ll tune in too. It’s like Malcolm Gladwell’s “The Tipping Point,” these early adopters live to spread the word. And this word reaches mainstream media LAST! Everything is off the radar before it shows up on the radar.

Tech has taught us you innovate or you die.

Right now, Netflix is innovating the most. Disney and Apple not so much. Don’t look at today’s dollars, but tomorrow’s. Right now, Netflix is winning the battle.

Right now I recommend “The Devil Next Door.” I lived through the Demjanjuk scandal, even remember it, but I was riveted. By the stories of the Holocaust survivors. By seeing the participants thirty years later. I know that has little to do with the story, but when you see the people from the eighties today, and see how they’ve aged, not only do you realize that everybody you haven’t seen in that time period has aged/changed, but you too!

“The Devil Next Door”

 

Unfortunately, @TaylorSwift13 is one of many whose work has been threatened by a private equity firm. They're gobbling up more and more of our economy, costing jobs and crushing entire industries. It's time to rein in private equity firms—and I've got a plan for that. https://t.co/r2UD4CT1Ba

— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) November 16, 2019

I don’t think Elizabeth Warren is fully-informed here. This is not an LBO, but an investment. Then again, the Carlyle Group benefits from the carried interest rule and…

Private equity is gobbling up Hollywood. Especially in the talent agent sphere. The big three? TPG is the majority owner of CAA. UTA sold shares to Investcorp and PSP. As for WME…Silver Lake wants to cash out, the talent agency carries debt of $4.6 billion, and not only are market conditions unfavorable, it appears they’ve turned for good, WME had to pull its IPO with no cash-out on the horizon.

The Carlyle Group put up the money for Scooter Braun to buy Big Machine.

Now I haven’t understood why the low level agents haven’t left these agencies. They’re not going to get the spoils, they’re just working for the man. They could start all over tomorrow, with the talent, which is also not benefiting, and get a greater piece of the pie to boot. Funny how entertainment is an entrepreneurial business and these agents are not entrepreneurs.

Sure, some agencies sold out to the big three for the cash payment. But this is exactly what happened with Live Nation. They took the check and…most disappeared, the company didn’t fit with their ethos, they’re renegades, they can’t work for the man. Interesting that all these agents can. And managers too. Come on, if you’re any good, you don’t want to work for the consortium, you want to take all the bucks for yourself. But if you sell out, you’ve got not only a payday, but a guaranteed income. Funny how managers play it differently from the acts they manage, who live and die on their hits, their reps, their credibility. There’s no guaranteed income for the entertainers themselves.

Or the writers.

That’s the story in Hollywood this year. The writers firing their agents. They believe there’s a conflict of interest, with the agencies getting packaging fees, with the agencies getting into production, and it’s hard not to sympathize with their cause.

In other words, agencies are the new studios. Come on, do you even know who runs the studios? But you know who Ari Emanuel is.

Same deal with the record companies. This is not the era of Tommy Mottola, of flash and dash. Nor the era of Mo and Joe, the artists’ “friends.” (Well, at least until Prince wrote the word “slave” on his cheek.) Turned out you had to be aligned with the major to play in last century’s music business. Because of distribution. Because otherwise you couldn’t get paid, even if you had a hit. And promotion. On both radio and TV. The labels had the relationships. As for now? It looked like a free-for-all, with the flattening of distribution and the lack of importance of radio and TV, however the labels have an ongoing relationship with the streaming services and…

It’s a big money game. You’ve got to have big money to play. And the Carlyle Group had it and Scooter Braun wanted it, a deal was made.

The Carlyle Group doesn’t care about music, not at all. Oh, all bankers want to hang with the celebrities, but they like private jet travel and the other perks of money more than that.

But it’s Taylor Swift who brought this all to the forefront, to the national stage.

That’s the power of a musician. Because of their rabid fans.

To tell you the truth, I don’t care about Taylor Swift, she lost me when she went pop, when she stopped working with Liz Rose.

But I am interested in business.

I am interested in politics.

The story of now is how the viewers/readers of Fox and other right wing outlets get a completely different view of the news from those on the left. Roger Stone got convicted and it was the twenty fifth article on foxnews.com, today I didn’t even find it on the home page. The story doesn’t square with the narrative. As for the impeachment hearings, did you know they’re a travesty and the Republicans are wiping the floor with the Democrats? The story on the left is David Holmes heard the conversation. But that’s not even a story on the right. But somehow, Taylor Swift has cut through all this. And made music, a sideshow, into the main show, as in today’s politics.

So has private equity screwed the little guy and lined the pockets of fat cats? Absolutely! Private equity has put workers on the street, as it got paid and companies went out of business, all the while being taxed at capital gains rates. Not that the average person can understand this. But the average person is aware they’re losing the rat race, that the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, opportunity is fading.

As for the music business…

What is Scooter’s plan here?

One thing is for certain, Carlyle is not in it for the long term, it’s about getting out, private equity doesn’t get in unless there’s an exit strategy. And when the exit occurs, does the money flow down to those who built the company, who did the hard work, in this case the artists? Of course not! They’re just cogs in the wheel! The acts make the records and the companies own them, and roll them up and sell them to the highest bidder, oftentimes a mark…can you say Guy Hands?

Taylor Swift played her cards wrong. But Scooter Braun has gotten in bed with the devil. Trying to emulate his hero/guru David Geffen on his way to billions. But at this late date, despite Geffen’s constant denigrations, who is bigger, he or the Eagles?

It’s no contest.

It’s art we revere, it’s art that changes society, it’s art that makes the world go ’round.

So now Elizabeth Warren weighs in (along with AOC), and it appears she’s on the side of the artists and the people and if you’re sophisticated and you play it out, there have always been banks, shouldn’t entities be able to get loans, take on investments? Once again, this is different from leveraged buyouts. Then again, these loans/investments come with strings. At first it’s just cash, then the investor ends up owning the majority and you’re working for him/her. Suddenly, the biggest power in entertainment is private equity, is that what we want? Of course not! It’s about enriching the few at the cost of the many, who built the asset with their talent.

So now the rank and file have heard of the Carlyle Group, even if they don’t understand it. And one thing’s for sure, money wants no notoriety, it wants no investigation, white collar crime is rampant, or if not illegal, the behavior looks sleazy and untoward under the spotlight.

So is this the end of the line for entertainment? Consolidation and ownership by the banks?

Hopefully not. Anybody can make a record. Anybody can distribute a record. Music was the canary in the coal mine for digital disruption. Maybe it’s the canary in the coal mine for disintermediation of the deep pockets. Then again, few can resist a check, especially in the creative fields, where most people are struggling.

But now we’ve got Elizabeth Warren on our side.

Huh?

Like I said, I never expected music to hit the big top, the story of our age, politics.

But there it is.

That’s rock and roll. You know it when you see it, when you feel it, when you hear it.

Now I know why Chris Robinson gets all the girls. In regular life, he’s just a skinny, geeky guy. But when the music starts…

If you lived through the pre-internet era, you know what I’m talking about. The gig was a tribal rite, a once in a lifetime performance which only those in attendance experienced. It wasn’t about those in the audience, but those on the stage. Music drove our lives, we needed to get closer, to excite us, to enlighten us, to make us feel alive!

These players had woodshedded off-screen. They were nobodies before they became somebodies. Kinda like GNR. Or even Poison. Just denizens of the Sunset Strip and then splashed all over the airwaves, eventually even MTV. That was the goal, not to go to Silicon Valley and make a billion, but to go to Hollywood and get everything! Enough money, that’s for sure, but also the adulation and the admiration.

It’s hard to explain the sound. You had to be there, you had to experience it. And the boomers were, they were addicted to the radio in the sixties and seventies too. And there were the Beatles, but also the Stones. The Stones were selling something different, something based in R&B, something sexier, something more dangerous…you wanted to get closer and see if you were burned by the flame.

We were hot last night.

That’s the power of music, the power of performance, it sells itself, you don’t need to implore the audience to pay attention, they just come like lemmings to your feet.

I mean they’re playing James Brown over the sound system, evidencing the Robinsons’ Georgia roots, and it’s just not a snippet, but the whole damn song. At this point, the anticipation is starting to wear off.

And then Chris Robinson strides down the stairs wearing his hat with a feather and Rich Robinson straps on his axe and it’s twice as hard to believe we live in today’s era, when rock is essentially dead.

To the right of Rich there’s a rack of guitars, nearly one for every number. He’s picking a Telecaster at first and then the tech keeps handing him something new. Reminding those of us in attendance when we were fascinated by guitars and amps as opposed to phones. When going to Manny’s, or even Guitar Center, was a pilgrimage to the temple, to the birthplace of the sound.

And everyone can play, but not everyone can build their chops to be world class with their own sound. They make it look so easy, even though we know it’s so hard.

We were jealous again, that they were on stage and we were not. You remember those days, don’t you, when the highest achievement was to be a rock musician, touring the world unrestricted by parents, a boss, doing what you wanted to do, all as a result of the joyous noise you created.

Nobody else could see, and nobody else could see last night. This was not the announcement, this was not the first gig, this was the finale of the celebration of the regrouping, the heat was off, except for a bunch of fans squeezed in on the floor and the creme de la creme of the business in the bleachers.

Scratch that. I don’t think there was anybody under forty there. Maybe fifty. Especially upstairs. We all remembered when. We’ve been passed by, forgotten, it’s about hip-hop, the youth, hell Billie Eilish isn’t even twenty.

Yup talk to anybody with miles on them in this business. It’s weird how the years are passing by, how a new generation has taken over, how it’s all about Scooter and Ariana, never mind Taylor, but even more Drake and an endless parade of youngsters, we don’t know what happened to our business, our music, the elixir that brought us to L.A. It wasn’t the weather, not even the money, it was the music!

Rock music fills up every nook and cranny in the room. Takes your brain hostage. Last night you couldn’t think about your obligations, your problems, you were riveted by the sound, you couldn’t believe it still existed, it was a victory lap, a true hall of fame induction for those who’d been there and knew how to judge.

Now you know what you’re gonna get. “Shake Your Moneymaker” from start to finish. Songs you know by heart. Nobody knows albums by heart these days. They’re overstuffed projects, hoping you forget to click and stop streaming them. Just check the number of plays, they’re not spread evenly, they center on just a few tracks, and even those tracks are known by few, even the biggest of them, but there’s not a soul who didn’t know the Crowes’ version of “Hard To Handle” at the turn of the decade, from the eighties to the nineties. Music ruled, it had power, and it still does, who else can speak to all political persuasions, different viewpoints? The sound knows no boundaries, if it infects you you’ve got no choice but to be sick, to listen to the message, even if today’s acts are abdicating in favor of endorsements, sponsorships, brands. Rock and roll was not about coloring inside the lines, it was about testing the limits, it wasn’t made to alienate parents, it’s just that they didn’t want to come on this ride, they didn’t grow up in an era where kids were king, where you could follow your muse as opposed to the pre-set formula of school, work, family, death.

So Chris is standing at the mic, twirling the mic, stomping the mic, not as acrobatics, not to evidence skill, but because he’s possessed by the music. “Twice As Hard” begins and he can’t hold back, he’s got to be himself, a jitterbug driven by sound, he’s got no choice.

Oh he’s skinny, but that’s only part of it, there’s the way he stomps one leg and then the other, the way he shrugs his shoulder…whatever this guy’s got we want!

How do these musicians win America’s sweethearts? Van Halen with Bertinelli, Robinson with Hudson? Eventually these women discover that’s all there is, that these are not normal people, these are not actors, these are musicians. They’re not three-dimensional, they’ve got flaws, but when they take the stage they’ve got the entire audience in the palm of their hands.

It’s sex. Chris follows the progenitor, Jagger, but he’s less active, jive and feminine. Mick looks like the gym rat he is, you saw that video of him practicing his moves in that dance studio after his surgery, right? About the most exercise Chris gets is lifting the bottle to his lips.

And the Stones play stadiums.

Last night we were up close and personal, they were only a few feet away. We were so close, but we could not be them. We could see the expressions on their faces, but you could not buy your way on stage, that was their domain, while they played money became irrelevant.

Now here’s where the hard core says it’s a fake band, that they didn’t include Gorman, never mind the rest of the players who’ve slid through the door. But that’s not what this tour is about, this tour is about money, and the Robinson brothers don’t want to share it with Gorman the same way Page and Plant didn’t want to share it with John Paul Jones. This is a celebration of what once was, not what is coming down the pike. Furthermore, there are not enough hard core fans to fill the buildings.

But it’s more than that. At this point, the fans own the music, the material. Just go to a Journey show, sans Steve Perry, but the effect is still the same, the hit of those numbers you spun into dust back when.

But let’s be clear, it’s about frontmen (and women!) They’re the ones who gain attention. Which is why Alice Cooper could succeed without the original band. You watch the person at the center, they embody the sound, and the question is whether they can do more than sing, can they sell it! Chris Robinson certainly can.

Not that Rich should be ignored. He’s the essence of the music, his riffs, his picking. And together you get what you want.

As for the Chris Robinson Brotherhood…Chris doesn’t do this act, he plays guitar, it’s jam-bandy.

But last night…

Chris gave credit to Otis and then he started to sing “Hard To Handle.” But the best part of the show was when he got to the chorus and the assembled multitude erupted…

Pretty little thing let me light your candle
‘Cause mama I’m sure hard to handle now

It was spontaneous, unprompted, it’s like there was a mind meld, everybody knew this was their moment to participate, join in, they couldn’t hold back, this is what they did in dorm rooms, frat houses, bedrooms, at dances way back when, they haven’t changed, but the world has.

Once upon a time they said that rock and roll would never die.

Hard to believe, but right now we’re at the end of the line, maybe some acts will go back to the basics and take a different path. Sometimes you’ve got to break it down to start all over again, maybe that’s how you change the world.

I’m not sure if today’s teens and twentysomethings would have gotten it last night, I don’t know if this sound would resonate, whether it would be enough for them in a world with so many distractions, where it’s about I as opposed to you, where everybody thinks they can win, where we put people on pedestals just to tear them down.

But once upon a time these performers were gods.

And it wasn’t only Clapton. There were scores of them. But somehow we lost the formula. In retrospect the Black Crowes were the last gasp.

It was guitars, drums, amps and people. No machines, no robots. Underneath the wall of sound were human beings. All you could do was stomp your feet, thrust your arms in the air and sing along.

Am I acting crazy
Am I just too proud
Am I just plain lazy
Am I, am I, am I, ever

Mama we’re all crazy now. Yup, that’s why Quiet Riot went to the top of the chart.

We were proud of our records, of our knowledge.

My mother couldn’t stop saying I was lazy, to this day, like Bill Murray all I wanted to do was sit around and play my records, albeit not Tito Puente, even though I can listen to “Oye Como Va” all day long.

A girlfriend told me when she moved in with me she didn’t think she was moving in with my records.

But she was. I’m addicted to the sound. I’m a junkie, I’ve got no choice.

And last night I got a hit of pure white heroin. I was high as a kite, and I still haven’t come down.

From the drug they call rock and roll.