And the Spotify Top 50/”Billboard” Hot 100 are like network.

Actually, we might have already experience the breakthrough, with “Baby Shark,” which was so successful it’s now on tour. Yup, if you think about this song and the hit parade, the only one that will survive fifty years from now is “Baby Shark.” Do you think they’re going to be playing all the hits with the 808? The bland pop songs, the evanescent Ariana Grande numbers, the hip-hop cuts with their diss tracks, with everybody trying to appear down and dirtier than their contemporaries, with no melody extant?

This is where we have arrived.

The modern music business began with the Beatles, back in ’64 in the U.S. Then we had the experimental free-format FM, then the codification of FM into AOR, then MTV and then the internet.

So, before the Beatles, you were either on the radio or you weren’t, you were known or you weren’t, if you happened to have a hit, just one, you could tour for the rest of your life on it, albeit in smaller and smaller venues. You had broken through. You’d gotten a record deal. This was long before DIY, when you had to record in a studio and distribution was locked up, never mind radio airplay.

The scene expanded with free-format, i.e. FM underground radio. Anything could be played, if it was perceived by the deejay and audience to be cool. Could even be classical.

Then the scene was tightened up by Lee Abrams. So we had two scenes, FM and AM. The latter was forgettable ditties, the former was a relatively wide breadth of rockers, but not as wide as it had been in the free-format era.

As for MTV… It blasted acts to the moon. Forget that they fell back to earth almost as quickly. If you were on MTV, you were known by everybody all over the world. And with the advent of the CD, more money than ever was rained down on labels and artists, this was a golden age, before piracy, before the techies and their internet broke big.

Then came Napster.

And everybody who had traction previously bitched about piracy and payouts, even though they were charging ever more money for their concert tickets.

Then hip-hop decided to give it away, with their mixtapes and Soundcloud and now we’re in the present. With the aforementioned Spotify Top 50/”Billboard” Hot 100.

The industry, the media, they still believe it’s the MTV era, that there’s a thin layer of hits we all adore, that it’s a walled garden that they control.

But that couldn’t be further from the truth.

So in the old days, there were only three networks. And then ultimately Fox became the fourth. Shows had insane ratings. Twenty to thirty million people could watch a show in prime time. Sixty or seventy million could tune in for a finale.

And sure, in the seventies we got HBO, but that was mostly movies and comedy specials, until the nineties.

Then HBO and Showtime started original programming. You remember “Dream On,” don’t you? How about “It’s Garry Shandling’s Show,” where Tom Petty was Garry’s neighbor? No? Well, maybe you didn’t have HBO, never mind Showtime, but then came “The Sopranos.”

Anybody who watched Tony and the family knew this was better than anything else, possibly ever, on television. Suddenly, people were talking about the show, the noise got louder, and soon Sunday night was for HBO.

Network show ratings went down. (Sure, they went down with the advent of basic cable, but a lot of that was pure dreck.)

Then Netflix flipped the switch to streaming and…

You had options.

But everybody didn’t watch “House of Cards,” everybody didn’t watch “Orange Is The New Black.” Amazon Prime won a Golden Globe for “Mozart in the Jungle” and I doubt most of you have even seen it.

It became a news story. How many scripted shows there were on TV. 300! 400!

Meanwhile, network ratings kept on going down.

“The Sopranos” was pitched to network, it was just too dangerous and too different.

Don’t bother pitching anything other than hip-hop and pop to the major labels, they’re just like the aforementioned networks. But the networks ultimately purchased the cable channels. If they were smart, and they’re not, the major labels would get all acts under their tent. But after Napster, when not a single soul at the Big Three has an ownership interest, everybody’s playing it safe. Can you say INNOVATOR’S DILEMMA?

So with little cash in recordings, acts took to the road. Hip-hop was more of a recorded medium, with pop if you don’t have hits you can’t even tour, but every other genre…

Suddenly, we have acts selling tickets all over the country, all over the world, who sound nothing like the Spotify Top 50/”Billboard” Hot 100. We’re almost at the tipping point. Many listeners don’t like the “hits.” There’s even a jam band-based festival, Electric Forest, and pure electronic festivals, and we’ve got Americana and all sorts of genres burbling. In most of them you cannot get rich, but you can make a living. It’s all pre-Beatles, when you were either a star or you were a musician. If you’re not on the Spotify Top 50/”Billboard” Hot 100 you’re first and foremost a musician, and wear this badge proudly, it is not about corporate gigs and clothing lines, you’re only selling your tunes, with credibility.

Now Billie Eilish is a harbinger of things to come, but she’s not quite “The Sopranos.” Her music sounds different from the Spotify Top 50/”Billboard” Hot 100, but it’s something the younger generation, very younger, is eating up, she has not been anointed by everybody, Eilish is not a quantum leap forward. But what happens when an act comes along that is?

Yup, in the future, not the very near future, but within five years, an act is gonna come along that sounds nothing like the Spotify Top 50/”Billboard” Hot 100 and yet will be as big as anything on those charts. That’s what “The Sopranos” was. And “Stranger Things.” And “Game of Thrones.” Network would make none of them, wouldn’t spend the money, isn’t interested because the perception is there is not a wide enough audience for them. Meanwhile, shows like this boosted us into a golden age of television, to the point that only cartoon heroes triumph in movies, when TV is the king of all media.

And the spoils fall down to everybody. Now there is a place to watch documentaries, you don’t have to go to theatres, people eat docs up.

And just like the album killed the single in the sixties, the all at once dump has killed the weekly drip paradigm. That’s how we want it, all at once so we can dig down deep. The oldsters still think they’re the gatekeepers, they’re concerned about water cooler moments. But the truth is when you binge a show you become passionate about it, tell everybody about it, you become an evangelist, you feel like you’re the only person watching this show, you want to spread the word!

And we all want to spread the word about non-hip-hop/pop acts. This isn’t about denigration of these genres, even though I did so above, but the truth is “hits” reach fewer people than ever before. Just ask someone to sing two songs off of any album, other than hard core fans, most people cannot.

Now the only people aiding this process are agents and promoters. They’re interested in what sells tickets, they’ll glom on to anything. They broke Maggie Rogers, so many other acts…Rogers is playing Radio City Music Hall! But that’s about as big as these non-“hit” acts get. They play theatres.

But they’re gonna get bigger.

It’s gonna be one act at first. And it’s probably not gonna be brand new, and it’s probably not going to be made up of people under twenty, it will have paid its dues, have its sound and vision honed. And then word will spread slowly and then burst into a supernova.

This is positively guaranteed to happen.

Never in the modern era have hit playlists been so narrow, so one-dimensional. Never have hits spoken to fewer people. The internet broadened distribution yet hit music got narrower? No! It’s just that hit music is still the largest audience, the biggest slice of an ever-growing pie. Kinda like the networks. They got the most eyeballs as their audience was shrinking.

Distribution has been figured out, music is miles ahead of every other artistic medium. Now it’s about content.

And musical content can come straight from the gut, it can embody humanity better than almost anything. I’m not saying you can’t do this with twenty writers, but chances are you won’t. With all those writers you’re trying to polish a hit, you’re playing by the rules. In your basement, quite possibly alone, the rules don’t apply.

And it’s when the rules don’t apply that we become intrigued.

This is why YouTube influencers are so successful, it’s straight from their heart to yours.

But most of those “influencers” are in it for the money. They chart statistics. Statistics come last, they’re evidence of success. You can have fewer than fifty million streams on Spotify and be very successful on the road. The two don’t necessarily align, not right now.

But they will.

We’re looking for acts that break the rules, that don’t hew too them.

Right now it’s all about me-too. (As in just like you, not sexual harassment.)

But the new hit acts will be so outside, so exotic, so great, that we’ll be running to pay attention, we’ll tell everybody to listen.

Because like “The Sopranos,” they’ll be nothing like what came before, that which is offered by the usual suspects. They’ll be creative and dangerous and truth-telling.

It’s coming.

It wasn’t great, but at least you find out what happens to Jesse Pinkman.

This is what happens when you give someone too much money. Not Jesse, but Vince Gilligan. What was notable about “Breaking Bad” was how fast and flat it was shot, demonstrating the capital constraints of basic cable.

And “Breaking Bad” did not really flourish until it was on Netflix, deep into the show’s run. Yes, it did look a bit better thereafter, but still…

“El Camino” is gorgeous. And the camera angles can be startling. With all that cash, Gilligan could deliver what he could not before, a great look, the only thing being the story, the execution of the plot, was not up to the visuals.

Now one thing that was great is there was no catching up and no explaining. No trailer before illustrating what happened previously and no amplification of references. You were supposed to know everything, who the people were, how they figured in, the plot…

This is so different from movies. Most movies are only seen once, it’s all got to be explained. But when something can be repeated and analyzed on the tube which is no longer that, but a flat screen of LED or OLED or…you’re immersed in the medium, in the story.

You’re shocked when Badger and Skinny Pete reappear. You haven’t thought of them for a long time and they look older. But they’re still the same doofuses. And Skinny Pete’s reverence of Jesse is notable, we’ve all got our heroes, yet most people don’t know they serve that role for others.

Pinkman/Aaron Paul also looks older, he now looks mature as opposed to immature, but you adjust.

Which leaves us with the plot.

People were looking forward to “El Camino.” But the reviews were not spectacular, at least not in the mainstream media, and for those of us whose time is as valuable as our money, we still pay attention to these things. I watch nothing without checking Rotten Tomatoes first.

But Rotten Tomatoes gives “El Camino” pretty good ratings.

You see the first hour is slow. And you can’t figure out exactly where it’s going.

But when you do, after Pinkman visits Robert Forster, which is so weird, since he just died, the movie picks up, you’re engaged, how is it going to play out?

Now I’ve got a free subscription to Apple TV+ because I got an iPhone 11 Pro Max (isn’t Promax an energy bar?) You don’t have to buy one, unless you’re still stuck in buttonland, as in an iPhone 7 or 8, sure, the processor is faster than on last year’s phone, and sure the camera is superior, but it’s hard to sense the speed and I haven’t taken a photo since I got it. But I signed up for the new phone every year program, now that the discounts are done. I mean what device do I use more than my iPhone? It’s worth it to have a new one, at least to me! And, I bought the Apple coverage for breakage and loss, so I’ve got peace of mind. I know, I know, it’s a bad deal economically, but I don’t want to have to worry about my phone.

So, Apple TV+ is gonna have a large number of subscribers because everybody who gets a new Apple product will get a year’s free subscription.

As for HBO and Disney’s offerings…

The truth is Nickelodeon has faded, there are so many options for children’s entertainment these days. So, parents don’t have to rush to sign up for Disney Plus, even though it’s so damn cheap. The problem is getting people to sign up to begin with…keeping them engaged, as in paying monthly, is much less difficult.

As for HBO Max… $14.99 is actually more than Netflix, at least for most subscribers. So the channel will be hit dependent. As for decades of previous HBO product…that’s been available for years, it’s not such a draw.

My point is there’s a first mover advantage. It’s kind of like Spotify and Apple Music. People know and trust Apple, but Spotify broke ground first, and although Apple Music’s subscriber number is about the same as Spotify’s in the U.S., it lags greatly in the rest of the world, and will probably never catch up.

Although Spotify and Apple Music feature essentially the same product, which is not the case with these streaming television services.

So, I expect Disney Plus and HBO Max to have millions of subscribers instantly, but it will be a long hard slog to reach Netflix’s numbers, which I don’t think they’ll ever reach, only Disney Plus has a chance, not only because of the price but those damn Marvel movies, which the brain dead watch over and over again.

But streaming television is not about high concept popcorn flicks. Streaming television is about story, it’s about depth.

The world is hooked on story. He or she who can tell a tale well is the winner.

So you’ve got to give Vince Gilligan credit. He’s a great storyteller. But “El Camino” had too much weighing on it, if it were shot quickly on the cheap with less aforethought it would have been better.

Then again, the best part is when Pinkman has breakfast with Heisenberg, proving that “Breaking Bad”‘s success was based on Bryan Cranston and his interaction with Aaron Paul.

So I’ll watch the next “Breaking Bad” movie, if there is one, I know these characters, I’m invested in them.

And what I like most about Vince Gilligan is he respects his viewers. You don’t find this in studio movies, nor on network TV, not even on the channels like HBO and Showtime which dribble their series out, making you wait. Talk about getting blue balls…

We live in an on demand culture, we want it all and we want it now. If you try to artificially prevent this, the joke is on you. People are not gonna buy CDs after they’ve encountered streaming. Of course some will, but most people are addicted to the new paradigm.

And the great thing is if you touch someone, all they want is more. This is what purveyors don’t understand, they’re all caught up in marketing, second-guessing the viewer. Deliver something spectacular, especially on streaming television, and people will find it and spread the word about it, because almost everybody has a subscription, everybody’s searching for stuff to watch and when they have a EUREKA! viewing experience they want to tell everyone about it.

Now a great show does not let your mind wander. And mine did a bit during the first hour or so of “El Camino,” but the concepts are there to ingest and contemplate. I haven’t thrown my popcorn in the trash and forgotten about it. Actually, now that I know what happens, I almost want to watch “El Camino” again, to soak up the other elements.

As for the card to Brock Cantillo…

Gilligan knew viewers would freeze the frame, this is not a movie theatre where you miss something, where the story has to be up front and center. “El Camino” is deep. There’s tons of explanation online, like “Esquire”‘s article delineating all the “Easter Eggs”:

A Comprehensive Guide To Every Breaking Bad Easter Egg in El Camino

It doesn’t really matter what I have to say about “El Camino,” if you watched “Breaking Bad” you must see it, and will.

But to tell you the truth, I’d be more interested in a movie about “The Americans.”

Hillbilly Elegy

Anybody who’s a friend of Peter Thiel is not a friend of mine.

Well, not exactly, but what bugged me about the press for this book is that they neglected to point out J.D. Vance’s entrenchment with right wingers, as in this book was seen as an insight into the poor white underbelly of America which voted for Trump and no one pointed out that this was not written by a neutral party, that Vance might have an agenda.

But Steve Martin at APA sent me a copy and I pulled it up and was shocked to find that “Hillbilly Elegy,” despite the political spin, was really closer to Tara Westover’s “Educated.” You’ve probably read that book, as you should, it’ll make your jaw drop, you won’t believe what happens. Similar deal with “Hillbilly Elegy” re Vance’s parents and upbringing, pretty riveting, easy reading.

But what made the biggest impression upon me was the end, where Vance talks about going to Yale Law School and the doors it opened, that’s why you should read this book.

You see it’s a club and you’re not a member.

As for those in Appalachia…reading this book and Vance’s conclusions make you want to double-down on being a member of the elite, the ignorance and contempt of Vance’s world for the elite is so ridiculous that you want to throw your hands up in the air and move on. Then again, I do not agree with Vance’s conclusion that no aid should be given, that money can’t solve the problems of these people. Sure, their mind-set is ingrained, but you’ve got to start somewhere.

And the place to start is opportunity.

Need-blind. Most people have no idea what that term even means. Which is if you ain’t got the money, you can still go to the college. Yup, almost all of the most elite colleges are need-blind, meaning your ability to pay is not taken into their consideration of whether to admit you or not. And if you are admitted, they give you financial aid up to…a full-ride. I knew a bunch of people at Middlebury who were on a full-ride, this is a good thing.

But most people don’t know about it. Even the middle class…I remember telling friends to have their kids apply to the elite colleges, but they said they were too expensive, so their kids ended up not applying, they just couldn’t wrap their head around the concept of need-blind.

Now interestingly, a large number of need-blind college students were need-blind at prep schools. Don’t get me started on prep schools, what they do prepare you for is life, that it’s all about connections, who you know.

And that’s what’s highlighted at the end of “Hillbilly Elegy.”

Vance says the work at Yale Law School wasn’t that hard, but just by getting in you were part of the connection/favor network. Hell, his mentor is Amy Chua, that’s right, the self-professed “Tiger Mom.”

Most people have no idea how the elite world operates. When it comes to institutions, corporations, politics, just about everything but entertainment and sometimes tech, it depends upon who you know to get ahead…

Let’s see, the two-faced Sheryl Sandberg went to Harvard, hooked up with Larry Summers and not only worked for him in the government as his chief of staff when he was Secretary of the Treasury, she was handed the gig at Google which led to her job at Facebook. As for Facebook’s aggressive tactics, their need to survive and thrive at all costs…don’t only blame Mark Zuckerberg, Sheryl Sandberg is complicit.

But she did not work her way up from the bottom, she wasn’t one of the Harvard bros who built Facebook, but she had the CV, and she knew Summers.

Vance says sending resumes is worthless, you’ve got to know someone to get a gig, someone in the elite, who went to school with a person at the institution which is hiring. And if you’re not part of this club…GOOD LUCK!

Read “Hillbilly Elegy” for all this. Not for the politics, but how Vance leverages his Yale status to get a top clerkship that he desires and then how David Frum gets him into the right law firm.

This is how the world works. And this is why we hate it.

Yup, it’s a club, where favors are owed. And you can’t penetrate it if you ain’t got the CV.

And if you’re not a networker, if you don’t know how to use your relationships, trade favors, forget it. We no longer live in a world of lifetime employment. It’s all about hopping from job to job based on your friends/relationships and most people don’t have elite relationships and never will.

Artists are usually not networkers, that’s a different skill, that’s why they need managers, agents and record labels.

Being talented and doing good work is not enough in this world. The corporations, the government, they’re all tied together via an old boy network fostered by the elite institutions.

That’s right, the game is rigged.

And chances are you can’t even see the board, never mind have a piece on it.

This is what the college admissions scandal is all about. It’s not what you learn in college, but who you befriend at the institution, the relationships you can leverage down the line.

Meritocracy, schmeritocracy.

Attorney extraordinaire Peter Paterno represents a who’s who of clients. Listen to hear his story from Orange County to Harvey Mudd to signing Queen at Hollywood Records to Metallica to Dr. Dre to “Blurred Lines” to…

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