SALES DIED

Remember when we were arguing about the cost of cuts on iTunes and whether Apple could sell individual tracks or had to sell the whole album? Funny how the battles of yesterday are meaningless today. Of course I’m talking about file sales, but if you want to talk physical…CDs are great earners, but de minimis in sales numbers. As for vinyl…the statistics are all wrong. They’re using a suggested retail price when digital is net. Turns out people want to own things. And if you have something cut analog and are playing it on an expensive stereo system, more power to you, but if the album was recorded digitally and transferred to analog and you’re playing it on a cheap system, the joke is on you.

STREAMING TRIUMPHED

Music has it figured out, we live in an on demand culture. The movie business still can’t square with the digital age. As for those bitching about streaming, they were the same ones bitching about files, about Napster. The past is never coming back. And in the past, the key was to get a record deal, and then you could live off the tit of the record company. So numerous acts with few sales survived, the company hoping for a breakthrough. Today, record deals are not so rich, and mainly only in hip-hop and pop, and you live or die on your streaming numbers, i.e. demand, and what we found out is that many acts who were loved by the press and tastemakers were not so loved by the public. Furthermore, tastemakers became irrelevant, critics don’t matter, it’s all about word of mouth. And everything is available and you get paid as long as people keep listening. So, in a business where everybody sells their rights it’s best not to, best to hang in there for the payments that will keep you alive down the road.

MAJOR LABELS

The center will not hold. Major labels will decline in market share. You don’t need them for distribution and as far as their marketing efforts… Will TV and press make a difference? As for radio, unless you’re hip-hop or pop, it’s essentially irrelevant. So you’ve got Glassnote shifting distribution to AWAL, you’ve got a lot of wannabe rappers and pop stars trying to get signed, but everybody else, who can actually play, has given up on getting a record deal, they’re focused on building an audience, primarily on the road.

VIRAL VIDEOS DIED

You can only exhibit the trick once. One Radiohead “In Rainbows,” one PSY “Gangnam Style.” The public can smell a rat, if it’s not organic, they want nothing to do with it. And just like Guitar Hero and Rock Band before it, TikTok will fade as a way of breaking artists. Once everybody knows about it, the early adopters are on to something else, as the johnny-come-latelies try to monetize what is evaporating.

MATURITY

The more mature something becomes, the more there is consolidation. Usually, this is the end of the paradigm. We’ve got Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Amazon…and Microsoft, and if you try to compete with them you’re either put out of business or bought. Same deal if you’re a concert promoter. But the consolidation in major labels provides opportunities for outsiders. Watch this space.

CLASSIC ROCK

The biggest audience at the highest price. Most acts today are evanescent. Classic rock had the benefit of careers, built over albums, that the public savored. Now it’s flavor of the moment.

CREDIBILITY

Forgotten, anybody with any traction is looking to sell out. Credibility bonds you to your audience, otherwise you’re just a mercenary.

TECHNOLOGY

There’s nothing wrong with electronic music, sampling, but history tells us there’s always a return to basics. Funny how the biggest act in the world plays alone and writes songs you can sing along with, i.e. Ed Sheeran. But just like no one is cloning the Adele paradigm, no one is cloning the Ed Sheeran paradigm. It’s just too hard. Adele paid her dues. Ed Sheeran walked into the wilderness and starved before he made it, after a ton of hard work and opening for Taylor Swift. No one wants to put that kind of hard work in today, at least no one in music, which is the land of the unskilled with no portfolio. As for labels, they want it quick, the execs want their bonuses. A backlash will come, eventually.

NO ONE IS THAT BIG

Just like we all read and believe different news, we all listen to different acts. You’d be surprised how many people are ignorant of Drake, never mind Post Malone and the other streaming giants.

MEDIA AND LABELS ARE TRYING TO MAINTAIN THE OLD PARADIGM, ALONG WITH RADIO

That’s right, there’s a monoculture, of top hits, played on the radio, and they who control radio ultimately win the game, proving what a dumb business music is. Terrestrial radio keeps releasing data saying kids are listening and you can’t find a kid who is. Terrestrial radio is network television…a hobbled medium trying to appeal to everybody that is losing its grip on the public, surpassed by more innovative products. But since the labels can’t figure out the special sauce of word of mouth, they rely on radio.

MUSIC IS AS TRIBAL AS THE COUNTRY

In the aughts, we all partook of the smorgasbord, people were fans of everything, but today there’s much less cross-interest. Don’t expect any classic acts to suddenly be embraced by the kids. We are in uncharted territory, where we will end up is unclear, but young people today don’t care about music history, they care about themselves, in a world where they’re bombarded by messages.

TELEVISION IS IRRELEVANT

Only SNL and CBS “Sunday Morning” can move the needle. Late night gets a ton of ink but few viewers. At best those shows create viral moments. But, interestingly, Jimmy Fallon focuses on entertainment and his ratings sink, and Stephen Colbert focuses on politics and he wins the ratings race. Don’t be afraid to be dangerous. That which questions authority, reveals untruths, has credibility, speaks to a core and not everyone, triumphs.

PLAYLISTS DID NOT DELIVER ON THEIR PROMISE

Music discovery is broken, and no one wants to fix it because it doesn’t pay. If you’re listening to playlists, you’re probably not a fan. A fan knows what to listen to…well, they used to, now they oftentimes just listen to the same damn thing.

SKIPPING

It’s nearly impossible to get someone to stay involved if they don’t want to. You’ve got to hook them. The concept of repetition driving acceptance…very little gets repetition.

WINNER TAKE ALL

The music business proved this, but in the future it’s going to lead the charge out of this. That’s right, turns out everybody doesn’t want to be on the same page, people are proud of the niche they inhabit, like the vinyl cabal. And media has no way to quantify this so there are no reports. We are going to see a broadening of the types of music people listen to in quantity.

HIP-HOP

The only musical medium in touch with today. Rock is still lost in the last century, country is still controlled by white men who think they matter. Ergo, hip-hop dominates. Hip-hop gave it away for free. Hip-hop delivered multiple releases. Hip-hop focused on features. Hip-hop let anybody play, creating excitement. Meanwhile, a woman can’t get on country radio, nor can outlaws. As for rock, talk about a backwater, they’ve lost the formula, the classics could sing, there was melody, today’s rock is so far from the garden as to be laughable.

LATIN

Ignored because the white men in control don’t understand it. But the public flocks to it when they hear it. Furthermore, there is a huge Latin population eager for music. Latin will only grow.

CONCLUSION

The 2010s were all about cementing the change in the music business. Acts are built on the internet and streaming dominates. Once again, those who don’t accept this are doomed. But now that the infrastructure is in place, the focus is on software, i.e. music, and this is where there’s lack of innovation. No one wants to take a risk. The labels or the makers. It’s too much effort to push the ball uphill. But those who are anti the present ethos, who go their own way and don’t put money first, will start to shine, and that will change the business once again. This is a business where one style comes along and kills what dominated before, just like Seattle killed the hair bands. Now, with terrestrial radio so ineffective and dominance out the window, opportunity arises for new sounds. Let’s be clear, there will be acts that develop on the road. And then there will be acts that develop via recordings, online. You have to ask which one you are, because the development process is different. Road dogs need to work 250 nights a year minimum, leveraging their fanbase for growth. Recording stars have to lock themselves up in the studio and experiment until they get it right. As for collaboration…we’re looking for the vision of one, not music constructed by committee, which is judged by the labels, tweaked by remixers before it is released to the public. One person and their guitar, or their piano, speaking their truth from the heart, that never goes away. But in an era where it’s all about the cash, that’s not the path people are taking. People want safety, and there’s safety in numbers, but musical breakthroughs are always made by incorruptible outsiders. From John Lennon to Kurt Cobain. It’s kinda like the internet in general, if everybody likes you, if you don’t offend, if you don’t have haters, then you’re not doing it correctly. Don’t bitch about the naysayers, embrace them, that means you count, that you’re on the right road, otherwise they wouldn’t bother. Create a one listen hit. Or get out of the way and go on the road and hone your sound. And if you don’t fit either of these paradigms, give up, not everyone was made to be an artist. They call it “popular” music. If no one’s interested, if it’s not popular, it doesn’t count. That’s your goal, to make your music popular. And you can give up social media promotion completely, the hype is the least important part. Just keep posting your music and informing your fans, if you deliver, expect a conflagration.

I was going to write about ticketing.

That’s what you want to hear from me, music insight, right?

Well, there’s a very simple insight the media doesn’t want to acknowledge, that the music business includes much more than the Spotify Top 50. While the major labels try to manipulate the “Billboard” chart, so that media will publish that their product is successful, #1, even though next week it’s not even in the Top Ten, the truth is the money is made on the road, as are careers, and the public wants to see and hear a vast swath of acts and material, irrelevant of the charts, but this gets little media attention.

Which brings us to the issue of high ticket prices discussed in yesterday’s “Wall Street Journal.”

Why Concert Tickets Are So Expensive

Ticket prices are high because people want to pay them! We’re selling a desirable item, and it’s not like a BMW or Mercedes, where you can calculate the cost of the content, it’s an emotional purchase, you either need to go or you don’t, and in an age of commoditized possessions, where we all have the same smartphones, going to a show offers a unique experience that makes you unique, and no one is forcing you to go!

Used to be that acts were afraid of overcharging. But today everyone knows the price is the price. And the only people bitching are those who want to sit in the front row for free, because they stream the music at home ad infinitum.

If you desire to keep prices low, there are mechanisms for this. Paperless, rolling bar codes. But then you always get some ignorant wanker who complains to the press… Screw them, your fans know the score and they appreciate what you’ve done and the truth is the story only adds to the fire of your exploits in an era where everything can be ignored.

Not that there are not consequences of high prices. If you appear greedy, if you need to extract every last dollar, beware of the future, if you don’t have another hit, if people don’t find a new reason to go, your business may fall off. Taylor Swift boasted about wringing all the money out of a gig, but now she’s hitless and the audience has moved on, at least some people.

As far as getting rid of scalpers, it’s very easy to do. Just ask Prince, or Garth Brooks. Play enough gigs to satiate desire. And you can keep the price cheap. Frequently, the scalpers’ prices give a picture of demand that does not exist. And if all the money is on the road, why not satiate those who want to see you? Which is the essence of Vegas residencies, let them come to you! And they’re paying for flights and hotels, why not charge a high price? Why should the most memorable experience be cheap?

As for those seats down front… Platinum. The wealthy will find a way to get them whether the act sells them at a high price or the scalper. The rich get what they want, they can afford it. Also, the truth is the not-so-rich will overpay to see their one and only, and the truth is most concertgoers only go to one or maybe two shows a year, it’s like a vacation, the price is worth it.

We live in an era where it’s all about the Benjamins, credibility is something from the sixties, we need a sea change in the national ethos to change this.

Which is what Warren and Sanders are providing.

And the mainstream is resisting.

If you read only one article this week, forget the WSJ ticketing one, read this one about centrist bias in the “New York Times”:

“How ‘Centrist Bias’ Hurts Sanders and Warren: The Media has a bigger problem than liberal bias.”

I’ve been wanting to write a similar article for weeks now, how the mainstream media affects perception. The mainstream is even worse than the internet and its Facebook ads and false information. The mainstream says Warren and Sanders are out of touch and have no chance and the hero is Biden, but is that how the voters really feel? It seems like the voters have trouble with income inequality, and every day I hear something about health care costs from friends. Do you really want to go to the emergency room knowing you’re gonna be out of pocket 5k? And that’s from a friend who can afford it! I’d give more examples, but this is about billionaires.

Actually, Paul Krugman talks about the misperception re billionaires in today’s “Times”:

“Big Money and America’s Lost Decade-Yes, the rich have too much political influence.”

And yesterday, the WaPo had an opinion piece:

“The decade of the billionaire victim”

Yet somehow Michael Bloomberg knows better. Is this what the public really thinks?

Which brings me to Hasan Minhaj. You know, the South Asian comedian with a weekly show on Netflix. Seems you’re either in the loop or not. Then again, I really need two other lives, one to read all the books I want to and another to watch all the TV.

So even though I’m a fan, I don’t watch every Minhaj show.

But then Jake e-mailed me about the one about billionaire philanthropy.

Now, through the magic of intelligence, which the music business lacks, you can see this Netflix episode on YouTube, because unlike the music business Netflix understands the big issue is obscurity, not getting paid, and if you build a big enough audience, there’s plenty of money to be had.

So you need to watch this, yes you do:

Why Billionaires Won’t Save Us

But you won’t. Because you don’t have enough time, you think you know it already and who cares anyway.

But the truth is you do care, it involves your future.

But how come nothing gets traction these days? Stories in the papers? Here today, gone tomorrow. Even a TV show which is available on demand, to stream whenever you want, how do you get people to watch?

The truth is everybody is overwhelmed, to the point where the only thing that matters is their own little life. So stuff they should pay attention to goes ignored, while the perceptions that filter down to them, perpetrated by those who care, are oftentimes wrong.

What the media doesn’t understand is we’re ready for a reset.

And the DNC still thinks it’s the 2016 reset.

But there’s a concomitant reset on the left, which the media and the billionaires are missing. The public is pissed. About income inequality, corporations paying no taxes, everybody having a better lifestyle than they do, the lack of opportunity.

But the DNC is letting Trump define the issues. And because 30%+ will vote for Trump even if he shoots someone in the street, this vocal minority has the mainstream cowering, afraid to offend them.

The story of our age isn’t a return to the gilded age. That already happened, it’s the rebellion against that. The public wants a leader.

The right had Trump, who didn’t deliver.

The left is afraid to make a stand, like Trump did in 2016, to appeal to its true base, not the overeducated elite comfortable in their 5,000 square foot homes who don’t want to sacrifice a single thing, but those who were left out.

And it starts at the top, with billionaires, because their money influences the debate, and they think they know better.

But they don’t.

Holly George-Warren is the author of a new book on Janis Joplin entitled “Janis: Her Life and Music.” Tune in for insights into Janis, along with tales from Ms. George-Warren’s career working at “Rolling Stone” and authoring sixteen books on topics as varied as Woodstock, Alex Chilton and country & western music.

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What kind of crazy, fucked-up world do we live in where Jay Z makes a deal with the NFL and Nike’s Colin Kaepernick shoe sells out?

One in which keeping your mouth shut for money is passe and being a member of the group is less important than being an individual.

It’s the sixties all over again. Despite the cries of OK Boomer!, there’s been a sea change in the ethos of the populace, and once again the old white men are out of touch.

Aren’t the people buying Kap’s shoe supposed to be the fans of the NFL?

Well, if that’s not true, aren’t African-Americans the soul of the NFL?

The NBA realized this and the players gained power. Furthermore, the NBA allowed the game and its penumbra to be fluid, as opposed to being sacrosanct, as it is in the NFL. The players rule the NBA, they’re serfs on Maggie’s Farm in the NFL.

But doesn’t money rule? Aren’t the billionaires in control? Don’t they know what’s best for America?

No.

In the last couple of years, everything we know has flipped. First with tech. The soul of America, its innovation, the luxuriating in products and features instead of being cool is now seen as uncool, too many know-nothing billionaires protecting their riches at the public’s expense.

And then there’s the anti-environment polluters. Scratch a millennial or a member of Gen-Z and you’ll find they’re militant about climate change, it’s not only Greta Thunberg, whom Trump made fun of.

So you get to decide what side you’re on if you’re a corporation, and an individual too.

In other words, America is no longer tribal only when it comes to politics. And the young tribe, the tribe on the left, is all about individual superstars while that on the right has closed ranks, circled the wagons, and is positively out of touch with what’s going on.

When it comes to corporations…

It’s like Europe and Trump. You can now stand up to the man. Especially in an era where TV advertising no longer rules and no one can organize an effective boycott.

And your goal is not to satiate everyone, but your core constituency. Today haters and trolls are de rigueur, to be ignored.

Women stood up with Me Too.

Now everybody is standing up for their rights, and the powers-that-be don’t like it.

Hell, the movie companies don’t even like that streaming is eating their lunch!

We were so overwhelmed by the tech innovations of the past thirty years that we are now ignoring the cultural changes in our society.

Look at the YouTube/Instagram influencers, it’s all about ME! ME! ME! whereas previously millennials refused to speak up for fear of being excoriated and left out of the group.

We are in a new age of the individual. And one person can move mountains, assuming they believe what they say.

As for Colin Kaepernick? He would have been a forgotten quarterback, living on his pension. Now he’s a household name never to be forgotten while he profits on shoes and more.

As for Nike?

The company took a risk and it paid off. It ensured its longevity with the younger generation, and they’re making new people every day if you haven’t noticed, we are here to be replaced.

For the last thirty years, forty, it’s been all about being fake to get ahead and be rich. Yup, you went to business school to learn how to get along with people, kiss their butts to get paid.

As for the techie/nerds… They had their era, just like classic rock, but now it’s over.

But just like people believe today’s music means as much as classic rock, they think that tech continues to rule, that billionaires are entitled to control society, and they’re just plain wrong.

This is what the DNC doesn’t see. It’s no longer 2016, it’s 2020, and times are different.

In 2016 we still loved Facebook. Only the left behind were disillusioned, i.e. those without college educations who lost their jobs.

But today, everybody is disillusioned, everybody is questioning whether they’re gonna get their piece of the pie. Which is why when you boast in a song how great your life is, how you’re a winner, you’re out of touch. Furthermore, the hoi polloi know that entertainers earn just a fraction of the money of billionaires, that they’re glorified court jesters.

And then you come down to the talent agencies, competing with each other to replace the movie studios even though there’s no there there. The writers have rebelled, gone on strike, because they don’t like being pawns in the game, and the agencies refuse to settle because it will ruin their whole business model, saying they’re representing talent when they’re really in the game to build monoliths and get rich.

And today the individual does not need print or TV to get his or her message across.

And stories break online long before they break in the news.

Which is why foreign countries want to control the internet, censor it and occasionally shut it down. And the American tech companies just play along.

But then Tim Apple refuses to give a back door to the government into iPhones. And stands up for privacy. Because we’re all upset about being bought and sold, known, even though we can’t break our addiction to free services.

Politics is just evidence of what is going on, it’s not the main show.

In 2016 Bernie Sanders almost upset the apple cart. He proved that it’s no longer business as usual. But what is the DNC trying to do? Institute business as usual. That’s what the whole Biden campaign is about. Kap gets excommunicated for standing up for his rights and is a hero to the younger generation and Biden gets another chance by saying let’s go back to the past. Young people don’t want to go back to a past that they never were the beneficiaries of anyway!

So what we should expect in 2020 is more individuals standing up to power and not backing down.

And savvy corporations will align themselves with these individuals.

And those who take a chance will be lionized while those who hew to the company line, who resist change, will be challenged.

Now is the time to use your brain. Forget the influencers selling products on social media, they’re just an interim phase. The next step is using your message to gain power online to effect change.

And one thing’s for sure, the wheels are turning and a change is gonna come.