Dance Monkey

I didn’t know what they were talking about.

Everybody in Australia was asking me about Tones And I. Why hadn’t she broken in America. After all, she had a billion streams!

It became relentless. To the point where when I finally played the track I was unimpressed, just another poppy dance tune, another confection, meaningless, here today and gone tomorrow.

So there’s a conference circuit. You go anywhere in the world and you see the same people. Actually, that’s Millie’s job. She works for Sounds Australia. Which is funded by APRA AMCOS and the government. I could go deeper, but I stopped listening when Millie explained it at dinner.

Actually, I didn’t recognize her. She’s lost in the neighborhood of a hundred pounds. Her mother sent her a fat picture and that was it, Millie fired up a calorie counting app and shed the weight. But her face was familiar and then I remembered that conversation we’d had in Barcelona, just before I flew home, even though she thought I was bluffing.

So Millie’s been working for the organization for ten years, which is kind of surprising, because in the U.S. you get blown out, it’s someone else’s job. Also, who wants to be on the road that much?

So since I’ve been home Millie keeps e-mailing me info about “Dance Monkey.”

And then I got another e-mail today.

Doing my Sirius show earlier, I debated whether I was gonna have to tell Millie to cool it. These relentless naggers bug me. Especially those who send PR notices whom I don’t even know. No wonder everybody’s moved on from e-mail, you just can’t keep your inbox clean.

But just now I decided to tackle the mail, and when I got to Millie’s missive I clicked through to see an article from Down Under saying Tones And I got a standing ovation on Fallon.

Yeah, right.

I’m glad Jimmy’s tanked in the ratings, his show has no edge, trying to please everybody he’s pleasing almost nobody. Furthermore, the applause is always phony, you’ve been to a TV taping, the light goes on and you light up, the person who warms you up tells you to. You feel privileged to be in the belly of the beast, so you act like a trained seal.

In other words, a standing ovation on television means nothing to me. And you no longer break acts on late night TV, no one is watching, certainly not the younger demo that spreads the word.

But when I looked at the video…

Tones And I (Toni Watson) looked completely different from my mental image. Like Billie Eilish, her frame was swathed in clothing so you couldn’t see her body. As for the puffer vest…is that hip anywhere? And I say that as someone who wears a vest in the winter, love those pockets!

And the sweatshirt and…she starts to play. That’s right, she’s actually PLAYING! Got to give props to those Australians, they’ve got the chops!

But this is not the record, which hops from the beginning, rather the playing is slow and meaningful, closer to Laura Nyro than Mariah Carey.

AND BOY CAN SHE SING!

Everybody’s been faking it for so long that we no longer believe anything is real. Come on, photos, videos, even an elementary school kid has the skills to compile fakes.

And we’ve got all these singing competition shows, but they evidence skill and no talent. You see talent is in-born, you can’t teach it to someone, not in art. You develop your voice because you have something to express.

And in the old days, prior to Pro Tools, prior to comping, you had to be able to sing to make it.

No more.

So Tones And I is a revelation!

They say you’ve got to see the acts live.

But today most of ’em, at least the pop ones, those in the Spotify Top 50, can’t perform. It’s all on hard drive.

But Toni Watson’s voice is so pure your eyes bug out. You mean someone really has a voice like that?

Then Toni gets up from the piano and…the hard drive goes wild and she starts to move and sing and it’s not quite the same dramatic effect, but one thing’s for sure, she can most definitely sing and emote and just like that old Kiki Dee song says, she’s definitely got the music in her.

She’s moving to the music, your skin starts to tingle you’re privileged to be experiencing this, a star is being born right in front of your very eyes.

Now I must say I went back to the record and I didn’t quite get the same feeling, and what about those lame lyrics? But I went to Genius and it turns out there’s a story behind “Dance Monkey,” it’s not mindless at all. It’s the story of Toni busking, and feeling the need to perform for the short attention span audience.

Now “Dance Monkey” is #22 on the Mediabase Top 40, the only radio chart that counts. And it’s stalled at that number to boot.

But it’s #11 on the Spotify United States Top 50. With an upward green arrow, just two spots behind Lewis Capaldi’s “Someone You Loved.”

Capaldi is #3 on Mediabase.

Lewis is #1 on “Billboard”‘s Hot 100.

“Dance Monkey” is #23 and holding on the Hot 100.

So, maybe “Dance Monkey” just ain’t gonna make it in the United States. Yup, we’re the defining factor, we rule.

NO!

“Dance Monkey” has gone to #1 in 27 countries!

Sure, it made it to the top of the chart in Poland and Slovakia, but it also went to #1 in France, Germany and the U.K! It seems like we’re the only country left out, hell, it’s even #2 in Canada!

Something is wrong with our system. “Dance Monkey” is an undeniable hit, but it’s stalling here.

Then again, after this video…

P.S. Toni Watson learned to play in school. If only we had money for music classes in the United States.

P.P.S. Tones And I is getting 714,993 daily plays on Spotify in the U.S. “Dance Monkey” is #1 on the Spotify Global Top 50 with 5,721,918 streams a day. The Spotify cume is 515,652,626. The official video has 198,038,725 views on YouTube.

P.P.P.S. Maybe we need a Millie Millgate for American music.

P.P.P.P.S. There’s no 808!!

Keep/Sell/Buy?

Tune in tomorrow, Tuesday November 19th, to Volume 106, 7 PM East, 4 PM West.

Phone #: 844-6-VOLUME, 844-686-5863

Twitter: @lefsetz or @siriusxmvolume/#lefsetzlive

Hear the episode live on SiriusXM VOLUME: HearLefsetzLive

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app: LefsetzLive

Is it about catalog or originals?

Verizon gave me a free year of Disney+ since I’m an Unlimited customer. I’m always wary of these deals, since you end up being charged and not realizing it, and oftentimes it’s hell to cancel. But I wanted to see what was going on.

Not much.

We used to get a thrill from hardware, now we get a thrill from software.

I went through the prompts. From the text to the Verizon site to Disney’s.

Then I turned on the TV and pulled up the Roku. Entered my e-mail address and password and I was inside. It was kinda like buying an iPod or iPad, but virtual. The aughts were about hardware, the teens have been about software, even though oldsters just can’t understand how you pay for something you don’t own.

But ownership is passe. Especially if you’re old. You realize you can’t take it with you, and in truth no one is counting. You can gather all the totems, believe you’ve won the game, and then find out you’re the only one playing it. Especially today, when everybody is in their own silo.

On paper, Disney+ sounds interesting. IRL? Not so good. You see you’ve seen everything, at least all you want to see. And the new product… I mean come on, “Star Wars”?

And then I went back to AppleTV+. You’ve got to hand it to both Disney and Apple, their interfaces are slick, but when you dig down deep their new offerings are thin. As for Apple…it seems they want you to buy things. Who came up with this model? Build your library? Weren’t we supposed to get rid of our libraries? With digital books, Felice wonders why we should keep the hard copies. And the truth is, I never reread a book, I put them on the shelf to demonstrate an accomplishment, what I’ve read. But the truth is the only people impressed by physical libraries today are the ones out of the mainstream. With everything at your fingertips, it makes no sense to own. Furthermore, digital is easier to search!

But if you went to an east coast college, it’s hard to let go of this old paradigm. Hell, it’s what’s driving the vinyl comeback. People want to own something. But it’s akin to Civil War re-enactment, a hearkening back to what once was. And if people even play this vinyl, so many of them have “stereos” that will kill it in one spin, they’re better off listening through hundred dollar headphones.

So what do I want to watch?

SOMETHING NEW!

Hmm… But the media keeps telling us the most popular show on Netflix is “Friends.”

Then again, at this point “Lucy” is nearly burned out. All the sixties shows on endless reruns, “Mayberry R.F.D.”…turns out they don’t interest the young ‘uns.

But they do want to watch “Seinfeld.”

Hmm… Probably the best sitcom ever. But once upon a time it was created out of thin air, did you see the NBC exec who pushed for it just died, how he took money from his specials budget to pay for it? And now, Jerry and Larry are rich.

New products keep the flame burning, the cycle going.

I never watch a movie again, life’s too short.

Then again, I know people do.

And I’ll be honest, oftentimes Springsteen’s “57 Channels (And Nothin’ On)” goes through my brain when I’m searching for a streaming show.

Because I don’t want to waste my time, I only want greatness.

Most of the new shows on Netflix are not great, but there are more pickings there, I can find something to watch. On Disney+ and AppleTV+?

But ain’t that the establishment…studios, distributors and the media. They’ve got an investment in the past. When what excites people is the future.

So right now, Netflix is looking stronger. It’s got the most production. It’s not hobbled by relationships with cable systems.

As for those worrying about profitability, now is not the time. Netflix needs to produce and produce and end up on top, win the war.

As for Apple dripping out episodes of “The Morning Show”…that’s a failed strategy. The theory was if you drip it out, you create water cooler moments. But the truth is everyone agreed the initial episodes sucked, and now they’ve got no interest in seeing the rest, even though word of mouth is better on the later episodes. Proving even Apple has no idea how the customer thinks, how word is spread. You’ve got to let people FINISH! So they’ll testify! Yup, if someone has watched the whole series and says it’s great, the odds are better you’ll tune in too. It’s like Malcolm Gladwell’s “The Tipping Point,” these early adopters live to spread the word. And this word reaches mainstream media LAST! Everything is off the radar before it shows up on the radar.

Tech has taught us you innovate or you die.

Right now, Netflix is innovating the most. Disney and Apple not so much. Don’t look at today’s dollars, but tomorrow’s. Right now, Netflix is winning the battle.

Right now I recommend “The Devil Next Door.” I lived through the Demjanjuk scandal, even remember it, but I was riveted. By the stories of the Holocaust survivors. By seeing the participants thirty years later. I know that has little to do with the story, but when you see the people from the eighties today, and see how they’ve aged, not only do you realize that everybody you haven’t seen in that time period has aged/changed, but you too!

“The Devil Next Door”

 

Unfortunately, @TaylorSwift13 is one of many whose work has been threatened by a private equity firm. They're gobbling up more and more of our economy, costing jobs and crushing entire industries. It's time to rein in private equity firms—and I've got a plan for that. https://t.co/r2UD4CT1Ba

— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) November 16, 2019

I don’t think Elizabeth Warren is fully-informed here. This is not an LBO, but an investment. Then again, the Carlyle Group benefits from the carried interest rule and…

Private equity is gobbling up Hollywood. Especially in the talent agent sphere. The big three? TPG is the majority owner of CAA. UTA sold shares to Investcorp and PSP. As for WME…Silver Lake wants to cash out, the talent agency carries debt of $4.6 billion, and not only are market conditions unfavorable, it appears they’ve turned for good, WME had to pull its IPO with no cash-out on the horizon.

The Carlyle Group put up the money for Scooter Braun to buy Big Machine.

Now I haven’t understood why the low level agents haven’t left these agencies. They’re not going to get the spoils, they’re just working for the man. They could start all over tomorrow, with the talent, which is also not benefiting, and get a greater piece of the pie to boot. Funny how entertainment is an entrepreneurial business and these agents are not entrepreneurs.

Sure, some agencies sold out to the big three for the cash payment. But this is exactly what happened with Live Nation. They took the check and…most disappeared, the company didn’t fit with their ethos, they’re renegades, they can’t work for the man. Interesting that all these agents can. And managers too. Come on, if you’re any good, you don’t want to work for the consortium, you want to take all the bucks for yourself. But if you sell out, you’ve got not only a payday, but a guaranteed income. Funny how managers play it differently from the acts they manage, who live and die on their hits, their reps, their credibility. There’s no guaranteed income for the entertainers themselves.

Or the writers.

That’s the story in Hollywood this year. The writers firing their agents. They believe there’s a conflict of interest, with the agencies getting packaging fees, with the agencies getting into production, and it’s hard not to sympathize with their cause.

In other words, agencies are the new studios. Come on, do you even know who runs the studios? But you know who Ari Emanuel is.

Same deal with the record companies. This is not the era of Tommy Mottola, of flash and dash. Nor the era of Mo and Joe, the artists’ “friends.” (Well, at least until Prince wrote the word “slave” on his cheek.) Turned out you had to be aligned with the major to play in last century’s music business. Because of distribution. Because otherwise you couldn’t get paid, even if you had a hit. And promotion. On both radio and TV. The labels had the relationships. As for now? It looked like a free-for-all, with the flattening of distribution and the lack of importance of radio and TV, however the labels have an ongoing relationship with the streaming services and…

It’s a big money game. You’ve got to have big money to play. And the Carlyle Group had it and Scooter Braun wanted it, a deal was made.

The Carlyle Group doesn’t care about music, not at all. Oh, all bankers want to hang with the celebrities, but they like private jet travel and the other perks of money more than that.

But it’s Taylor Swift who brought this all to the forefront, to the national stage.

That’s the power of a musician. Because of their rabid fans.

To tell you the truth, I don’t care about Taylor Swift, she lost me when she went pop, when she stopped working with Liz Rose.

But I am interested in business.

I am interested in politics.

The story of now is how the viewers/readers of Fox and other right wing outlets get a completely different view of the news from those on the left. Roger Stone got convicted and it was the twenty fifth article on foxnews.com, today I didn’t even find it on the home page. The story doesn’t square with the narrative. As for the impeachment hearings, did you know they’re a travesty and the Republicans are wiping the floor with the Democrats? The story on the left is David Holmes heard the conversation. But that’s not even a story on the right. But somehow, Taylor Swift has cut through all this. And made music, a sideshow, into the main show, as in today’s politics.

So has private equity screwed the little guy and lined the pockets of fat cats? Absolutely! Private equity has put workers on the street, as it got paid and companies went out of business, all the while being taxed at capital gains rates. Not that the average person can understand this. But the average person is aware they’re losing the rat race, that the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, opportunity is fading.

As for the music business…

What is Scooter’s plan here?

One thing is for certain, Carlyle is not in it for the long term, it’s about getting out, private equity doesn’t get in unless there’s an exit strategy. And when the exit occurs, does the money flow down to those who built the company, who did the hard work, in this case the artists? Of course not! They’re just cogs in the wheel! The acts make the records and the companies own them, and roll them up and sell them to the highest bidder, oftentimes a mark…can you say Guy Hands?

Taylor Swift played her cards wrong. But Scooter Braun has gotten in bed with the devil. Trying to emulate his hero/guru David Geffen on his way to billions. But at this late date, despite Geffen’s constant denigrations, who is bigger, he or the Eagles?

It’s no contest.

It’s art we revere, it’s art that changes society, it’s art that makes the world go ’round.

So now Elizabeth Warren weighs in (along with AOC), and it appears she’s on the side of the artists and the people and if you’re sophisticated and you play it out, there have always been banks, shouldn’t entities be able to get loans, take on investments? Once again, this is different from leveraged buyouts. Then again, these loans/investments come with strings. At first it’s just cash, then the investor ends up owning the majority and you’re working for him/her. Suddenly, the biggest power in entertainment is private equity, is that what we want? Of course not! It’s about enriching the few at the cost of the many, who built the asset with their talent.

So now the rank and file have heard of the Carlyle Group, even if they don’t understand it. And one thing’s for sure, money wants no notoriety, it wants no investigation, white collar crime is rampant, or if not illegal, the behavior looks sleazy and untoward under the spotlight.

So is this the end of the line for entertainment? Consolidation and ownership by the banks?

Hopefully not. Anybody can make a record. Anybody can distribute a record. Music was the canary in the coal mine for digital disruption. Maybe it’s the canary in the coal mine for disintermediation of the deep pockets. Then again, few can resist a check, especially in the creative fields, where most people are struggling.

But now we’ve got Elizabeth Warren on our side.

Huh?

Like I said, I never expected music to hit the big top, the story of our age, politics.

But there it is.