It comes down to whether you have faith in the system.

Older people do. They vote, they believe their vote matters, and if we all just come together Trump will be out of office and harmony will reign.

But young people don’t agree.

Young people have never lived in an era where the U.S. was indisputably the greatest, self-reliant, the peacekeeper of the world. Oldsters may hate China, all the youngsters know is all their hardware was made there, and unlike the youth of yesteryear, when “Made in Japan” was a joke, the equipment built in China works first time, for a long time.

But, the youth are concerned with working conditions in China. The youth are concerned with social issues and climate change and although they want to be able to pay the bills, they’re willing to sacrifice economics for the good of the nation and the world.

Unlike the oldsters. The oldsters grew up in the sixties, an era of kumbaya, but after the rampant inflation of the seventies and the unbridled greed of the eighties, the boomers cottoned to their acquisitions and lifestyles, they pulled ahead upon what they believed was hard work and they’re not going to sacrifice a single thing, no way. In most cases not even zillionaires. Wall Street titans, who control the money, rail about unjust treatment and class warfare whenever D.C. wants to regulate their industry, or increase their taxes. But the funny thing is those with the money control the politicians, because it takes money to run for office and win, so there’s no substantial change.

And the Republicans hold up the Constitution, saying it is inviolate and we must run our country on the wisdom and foresight of those from 250 years ago, which is like a hedge funder doing math on an abacus, a youngster talking on a landline as opposed to texting on a smartphone.

And the youngsters know how to use these tools, to organize.

But they’re no match against the disinformation campaigns.

For example, look at these videos from Tulsa today:

Andrew Kimmel – twitter

That’s right, Covid-19 is a plot, concocted by Bill Gates and George Soros. Not only do people have no faith in the government, they’ve got no faith in media, science or facts. It’s like everybody is making up their own rule book all the time.

But it’s one thing if you decide not to be fearful of being infected by Covid-19. It’s quite another to fire the attorney who is investigating you.

Now those of us who are aged boomers…we will tell you that it’s never been like this before. Used to be the pendulum swung back and forth. But now, it’s only swinging in one direction. Trump has the power and his minions, in the Senate on Fox News and in the street, won’t check him, and we’re veering into authoritarianism.

But the left keeps saying the law says there must be an election. But who cares about the law?

Trump is not even testing limits, he’s going beyond them, and the left keeps telling us to believe in the system. But the system has never worked for the younger generation. State schools are no longer cheap. You can’t have a roof over your head and food on the table on minimum wage. That’s the cognizant dissonance of employees making more on unemployment than they do working. Meanwhile, Mnuchin said he didn’t have to say where the money went and…

Oldsters expect checks and balances to work it all out.

Young people do not. They’re disillusioned.

Ergo the protests. Spun as being solely about Black Lives Matter, do you think that’s what bringing out whites and other people of color in droves to protest? No, they’re frustrated too, and this is the only way they can exhibit their frustration.

Meanwhile, commentators on the left and the right say to be wary, this anti-police clamor is going to get Trump re-elected.

They’re too far into the game.

Sometimes the game is destroyed. And those who continue to play it are stunned when the old rules no longer apply. But the old rules haven’t applied since Trump’s inauguration, if not earlier. What about that?

So, I’m sitting in my car last night, and I see that Barr fired Berman, who refused to go, who supposedly Trump fired for good today. This is like cheating on the test and then firing the principal and putting your mother in charge. Drug dealers don’t get to choose their own judges, they’re not in cahoots with prosecutors. If you’re not rich, you’re living under a different legal system, that works against you.

And we always knew the rich had privileges. But now they get better health care so they live longer, they don’t live amongst us, they don’t fly with us, they don’t vacation with us…it’s like living in a feudal system, all the while the disinformation system saying the problem is us. Huh?

I’ve often wondered when I’d have left Nazi Germany. Leave my friends, my property, my whole life to start over in a different country where I don’t even speak the language?

There are those Jews who got out early. Assuming they had the money and connections to do so. But the longer you stayed, the lower your odds of getting out. The Jews kept believing things would work out, that the Nazis just wouldn’t take away their businesses, make them live in ghettos, ship them off to concentration camps and gas them. It was unfathomable.

And I’m not saying Trump is Hitler and he’s going to gas his people. But Trump is akin to rising authoritarians all over this world. He keeps on telling us he respects Putin, Erdogan, the Saudis…why do we not believe him, when all along he has done what he said? He doesn’t lie about his respect for authoritarians, he only lies on the littler stuff.

So what’s it gonna take to get the populace to stand up?

Forget the brainwashed 40%, Trump’s supporters who hate immigrants, have drunk the kool-aid, or are rich. They’re not budging. Even though ignorant Democrats keep on telling us it’s about unmooring them from the Republican party and bringing them back to the Democrats. That’s like asking a punk to play classic rock, or a rapper to go classical. You stray from your roots, you react to the landscape and you don’t return, never.

But we’re playing a game of Jenga. With Trump continuing to remove pieces. And we keep being told that this shaky edifice is gonna stand, why?

So I’m infuriated, bizarred and shook-up, reading last night’s story re Barr and Berman. But today, Barr got what he wanted and everybody’s talking about Tulsa, the Barr/Berman situation is almost history.

And never forget, Trump not only appointed two Supreme Court justices, but packed the courts with loyal lackeys to the point where your chances of getting a fair hearing are slim if you’re not in lockstep with their beliefs. Yes, the ultimate arbiter has been compromised, but you still think everything is gonna work out, that we’re living in a just world.

And you also believe the polls and that Biden will win no problem.

Why should we have fair and just elections when Trump is all about opacity and putting his hand on the scale?

It’s like we’re living in Venezuela, or Hungary.

Meanwhile, lefties say the military hates Trump. Even if that were true, do you expect the military to depose the Donald and then just hand power to the left? That’s not the way it happens, the military gains control, and their number one goal is law and order, which so much of the public wants.

As they give up their rights.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

We constantly hear that the past will prevail. Remember all those stories about the future of BlackBerry? I was on CNBC telling them it was all over in 2007. And of course it was, but the old guard not only could not understand the breakthrough of the iPhone, they thought the past was forever. And how could you forgo the physical keyboard?

So let’s say Biden wins. The courts will still be controlled by Republicans, health care will still be tied to employers in the era of the gig economy, student debt will still exist and opportunities for the young will still be hobbled.

This is what you’ve got to watch, the reaction of the young. They may not vote, but that does not mean they do not care, or are uninformed on the issues.

The entire government has become disconnected from the youth. As if voting was the only criterion that counted, and if you didn’t go to the booth you did not matter.

Hogwash.

So, the question is when is it too much. What twig Trump places is going to break the camel’s back. And when the camel finally collapses, will we have enough power to right the ship, mixing metaphors, or will we be SOL in the desert?

Bit by bit Trump and his cronies are chipping away at your rights and your power. And you keep looking to the election to solve all your problems. But while you wait, Trump has only gotten more powerful, has only tested more limits.

And you read your news saying the rest of the world thinks the U.S. is a joke and no one you know is going to vote for Trump so you proceed with your little life, but rust never sleeps.

So, we’re heading for a crisis. And it won’t be a Constitutional crisis, it won’t be based on law, it won’t be about legalities, but hearts and minds. Trump will do everything to stay in power, and he will call out the military. And your face will be recognized and you will be put in jail as the corporations stand aside and…

And what?

We’re heading for a revolution. Or complete authoritarianism. Don’t keep telling me it can’t happen here. Or shrug and say you’ll be fine no matter what happens. Look at the history of the world, the American experiment has been relatively brief. When are we going to take the temperature of the youth and stop the insanity? If not now, when?

Live Nation Wants Artists to Take Pay Cuts and Cancelation Burdens for Shows in 2021

Never EVER forget that this business runs on talent. Without the talent, there’s nothing to sell. And talent is not fungible, except maybe in the case of the festival, which I will address below.

This is not the first time Michael Rapino and Live Nation have tried to reset the playing field. Just after Rapino got the gig, he came up with a three-tiered amphitheatre payment system. What you got paid was dependent upon how big a draw you were.

It failed.

Why?

Howard Kaufman.

Howard, an accountant by training, who made his bones with James William Guercio and then partnered with Irving Azoff and inherited the Front Line management clients when Irving moved on to MCA, was savvy. I remember discussing Fleetwood Mac with him. How much money he was gonna get them for their next tour. I asked him about a new album and Howard told me he’d be happy if Fleetwood Mac NEVER made a new album, because that would keep them off the road, where they could be making money, and there was no money in the recording anyway.

Howard knew where every dollar was buried in a live appearance deal.

This is where experience counts. Which is one reason the live business is run by oldsters as opposed to the recording business which is run by youngsters. The record label model is theft. Its goal is to not pay what it is supposed to. And the acts realized this, but had little leverage, but when they got it…they stopped wanting royalty payments, they just calculated how many albums they thought they’d sell, and they insisted on an advance. Theoretically, they might be entitled to further royalties if the album was a blockbuster, but if that was so…as one dealmaker told me, if the album went into royalties, they made a bad deal. As for the label? Sure, it can lose money on a star act by paying too much in advances, but not really. Because royalties are a small piece of income to begin with, and the act burnishes their roster and…

Now amphitheatres burgeoned. Whereas there used to be just a few, that had been around forever, like Tanglewood, regional promoters realized they could build their own amphitheatres, on low-cost land with minimum investment, these sheds didn’t even require walls and they had endless lawns and there was a building frenzy. But most of these amphitheatres were built on the cheap, and the public realized it. People will show up anywhere to see a hit act, but not every act is a guaranteed sellout, so…people became less interested in going to the amphitheatre/shed. And then all these indie promoters were rolled up by Bob Sillerman into SFX, which became Clear Channel and then Live Nation, and Rapino was stuck with the amphitheatres. Rapino wanted the talent to help him out.

But it didn’t.

Because Howard Kaufman had Jimmy Buffett, who got in excess of 100% of the amphitheatre gross, and other big acts and Howard said…

My acts are gonna skip the summer and play indoors this winter.

WHAT?

Of course it was a bluff. But it was not one that Rapino could play poker with. And if pushed, Howard would double-down and do as he said, to protect future income, so Rapino caved.

But this was when the live business started to resemble the record business. Concert promoters are inherently dishonest. But there are fewer streams of income and they are much easier to track down than recording royalties. So, to avoid dealing with an accounting, acts that could sell tickets demanded a guarantee akin to what they’d take out of the building on a successful night, just like the stars did with the labels. And as the labels stopped paying such healthy advances for records, because of the internet and the decline in sales, live became where all the money was and the acts wanted guaranteed income, they didn’t want to take the risk of a percentage deal. And, once again, if the act went into percentage, that just meant the manager and agent made a bad deal.

But then it got even worse. Because promoters truly lost their power. There were no regional promoters with territories protected by Frank Barsalona. Every gig was up for grabs. And if Live Nation didn’t pay, someone else would. There was always someone who would pay. Most especially the casinos, where the goal wasn’t to make money on the gig, but to bring an audience to the tables.

So, Live Nation lost pricing power.

So, to ensure its market, Live Nation popularized the tour deal. We’ll give you a boatload of money to do ALL of your dates. This was hard to resist, because if you went market by market, you never knew what might happen. There could be bad weather, an economic downturn…almost all big acts now take these overall deals. And AEG competes for said deals. Once again, superstar talent controls the business, not the promoter. The promoter hasn’t controlled the business since Peter Grant, who knew Led Zeppelin would sell every ticket and wanted a 90/10 split, as opposed to the much worse deal the Beatles got with Sid Bernstein.

And the guarantees to the artists became so big, that ticket fees had to go up, because the promoter had to make money somewhere. And that’s where they made it. Not all of it, not by a long shot, but the acts took essentially all of the gate revenue, there had to be a profit somewhere.

Of course if you can’t sell out, the deal is different. It’s all about leverage. And if you’re an act that can’t sell out arenas, inherently you don’t make that much money, despite fan adulation, and Live Nation doesn’t need you, so your deal is not going to be as good. Complain all you want, it’ll do you no good. Just increase your ability to sell tickets.

So now we’ve got the Covid-19 era. Nobody’s on the road, and this could sustain for another year or more. Live Nation is fine financially, it can borrow money, it’s not going under, but it is taking a huge hit and therefore its stock is penalized. Amazon is selling during the Covid-19 era, Live Nation is not.

So Live Nation is trying to claw back a piece of the concert promotion pie.

Let’s talk about festivals.

This is where a promoter makes beaucoup bucks. It takes a fortune, a truly deep pocket, to put one on. And even if you pay headliners multiple millions, you can still make much more than you can at the arena, so this is the goal of promoters, to have successful festivals.

But festivals fail all the time. Who should bear this responsibility?

Anybody on the talent side knows that it should be the promoter. The act’s not sharing in the upside, the act is not doing its own independent festivals, with small exceptions, it depends on the promoter in this case. But, if the festival fails, the act survives. Whereas the promoter takes a huge hit.

Why should the act shoulder this responsibility? The festival happens every year, hopefully, whereas the act can’t play the festival every year, no way, ticket buyers won’t stand for it.

So, Live Nation wants a smaller guarantee. I can kind of understand that, but I’d need bumps dependent upon ticket sales. But in truth I don’t want to risk an accounting, the promoter is inherently dishonest, if for no other reason than the act gets such a good deal.

As for penalties…

Let me see… I plan a year in advance. You book me for all these festivals, and if they don’t happen…where does this leave me? I can’t book a tour to replace these gigs at this late date. Never mind sell tickets at this late date, maybe all the money’s been taken out of the market already, by acts going on sale even in excess of a year in advance. I’ve got to sit on the sidelines. NO WAY! The promoter wants to make the big bucks, it’s got to take the big risks. The act is getting a flat fee. Unless Live Nation wants to put bonuses in contracts, like Live Nation stock… But agents won’t want that, because what happens to it. The act gets its stock and it is happy. Does the agent or the agency get the Live Nation stock? What happens if the agent leaves the agency? At what point is the stock cashed out, and who makes that decision?

Now the reason Live Nation is such a good business is because of sponsorship. But to ensure that sponsorship, it’s got to own a bunch of festivals and guarantee shows. But if there are no shows… Acts don’t share in this sponsorship money, why should they take the hit if it evaporates? And, once again, the act doesn’t have stock in Live Nation either, in almost all cases.

Going point by point, ticket prices have always been set by the promoter and agent and manager in concert, with the agent and manager having almost all of the power. The act is never gonna give this up. Of course, festivals are different. Because it’s not the act’s sole responsibility to sell the tickets, there is other talent, and the payments are flat fee and huge.

As for guaranteeing the act will promote said festivals via social media, et al… What, are they working on Maggie’s Farm? Are they sold-out YouTube and Instagram influencers? Acts come and go, the promoter remains. The act has to guard its credibility, it can’t be beholden to the promoter.

Streaming rights? Wait a second, right now they’re not worth much, but you never know in the future. And maybe I’ve had an off night, there are a thousand reasons why I may not want to stream, I performed poorly, I looked bad, that’s my decision and I want to retain that right unless you want to pay me for it.

Billing?

If you don’t put me at the top, the entire world will no longer see me as a superstar! It’ll hurt my image and income forevermore! Billing is heavily negotiated in movie contracts, but now you want me to forgo my right for concerts? Actors play a role, the act is the act, singing from its heart, there’s a lot more at stake, no way!

Cancellation?

I agree, a penalty if I pull out for no reason is reasonable. Assuming it’s outside our agreement as to what is grounds for cancellation. If a member is in the hospital, or their spouse is having a baby, or their parent died…put it in the contract, let’s negotiate it, what, am I working for Procter & Gamble now? And, once again, give me all my money if you cancel. You convinced me this was a good prospect, I bought into it, I gave up other opportunities, we’re not in bed together, when the TV network cancels my contract/show, like NBC did with Megyn Kelly, they pay up, as per the contract. Maybe they negotiate a lower price point, but the contract is a starting point, you want me to give up all my rights right up front?

And the dirty little secret is when concert promotion was regional, and you dealt with individuals who owned the company, you gave back, you worked with the promoter if they lost money, because you wanted them to stay in business, so they could pay you again. But Live Nation is a public company and Rapino makes more than almost all the acts and me, an individual act, has to shoulder the risk?

But all of this is negotiable. Every single deal point.

But who is going to negotiate?

Live Nation controls a good chunk of talent through their Maverick management division, or whatever they’re calling it this week.

Which leaves Irving and Coran as the big kahunas here.

These are the same managers who don’t pay agents 10% on their acts. This has evolved just like concert deals. If I’m selling out arenas every night, why do I need to pay an agent 10% when really it’s mostly a matter of paperwork?

And Irving and Howard Kaufman were partners. And Coran might be ten years younger, but has gotten quite an education since the days Dave Matthews was opening for the Samples.

Irving and Coran are not budging an inch, no way. And why should they? They’re individuals and Live Nation is a corporation. And if Live Nation were to go out of business, someone would pop up to take their place. If the Eagles or Dave Matthews can’t go on the road, there is no substitute for them, nada.

So this is just a trial balloon. And believe me, those acts with power, who can sell arenas, are never gonna fall for it.

But let’s also say that Live Nation pays a ton to all the players. Look at the amount they pay WME and CAA every year. Are these agents on the side of the acts, which can fire them at any time, or the promoter?

Then again, do you really need an agent at all? Not if you’re making big, worldwide touring deals, which is why some of these acts no longer have agents. To a great degree, the agent is an antiquated concept, when there are two big buyers, Live Nation and AEG, that control the lion’s share of the market.

The act is always right. Acts come and go, record companies and concert promoters remain, and will screw the act every time. Which is why you need a savvy manager. Howard Kaufman got Aerosmith by telling the band he’d make them more money in two years than they’d made in their entire career!

Live Nation has leverage, but not that much leverage. In truth, their leverage only applies to acts that are not guaranteed arena sellouts. And why should acts help Live Nation through this Covid-19 era, Live Nation is not helping the acts!

SoberSpotify

SoberYouTube

What kind of crazy fucked-up world do we live in where a number one rock song has more melody than anything in the Spotify Top 50?

In case you missed the memo, in case you’re out of the loop, Lil Baby has a big hit with his Black Lives Matter track “The Bigger Picture” Then again, despite all the hoopla, seven days after release “The Bigger Picture” has already fallen out of the Spotify Top 50. So what we have here is a hit you were unaware of that is already over, or at least in a downward spiral, what is going on here?

A hit is not as big as you think it is.

And either a track gets instant acceptance and goes down from there, or it takes a long time to climb the hit ladder.

But my main point is despite the myopia of the major label/major media circle jerk, hits do not have ubiquity and reach fewer people than ever in the history of formatted radio, charts, i.e. since the explosion of the business with the Beatles in 1964.

With the road business closed, most genres are ignored and get no traction. It’s all hit music all the time. And many people, even active music fans, have no interest in what the business has anointed.

And then we come to Bad Wolves’ “Sober.”

I’d be unaware of it if I wasn’t on Ryan Downey’s e-mail list. He lists charts as well as grosses and other pertinent info in the rock world. You can check it out here:’

Billboard & Apple Music Hard Rock/Metal Charts

I don’t pay a lot of attention to the hard rock chart, it’s too niche. A small slice of music and fans that is so far from the original hard rock of Zeppelin and Black Sabbath as to be incomprehensible, never mind unpalatable, unless you’re a student of the game and have followed every change in between. If I’ve never heard of the act, there’s a good chance upon listening I know why, and I don’t care.

But Mainstream Rock Songs?

Unfortunately, usually the same rules apply. Rock is now a self-referential genre, akin to jazz.

But I had not heard of the number one act, nor its song, so I decided to play it, and was stunned. It was kinda good!

For a moment I can wait
It’s a fight I guess I’ll never know

People don’t understand how hard it is to break addiction. The inner strength required is nearly insurmountable. People think it’s just a desire to get the high, but it’s the opposite, it’s the desire not to feel so bad. And it’s not just physical, it’s mental primarily. You’re playing tricks with your mind, telling yourself to hold on, not to cave, that you want to break the cycle, but as the minutes go by, ever so slowly, your will power fades and you cave.

And it’s not only street drugs, it’s those prescribed as well. Ever take opioids to cope with the pain of an operation? You get relief when the drug kicks in, but when you stop…be prepared for the worst night of your life, you will be unable to sleep.

As for street drugs…

The problem is cool people never say being clean is cool. It’s cool to get high. Whether on alcohol, prescription drugs or street drugs. That’s who we admire, look up to. Everybody else is a straight arrow, we’re drawn to those testing limits…until they die, or ruin their lives, or both.

Then we get those with no knowledge saying to just say no. I wouldn’t listen to these people, would you? Telling you how to live with no knowledge of your experience?

As for musicians… Many do drugs to cope with the routine of the road. And the industry looks the other way, as these acts are worked to death night after night until some O.D.

For a moment I can wait
I’m holding on to hope
And I know you’re stoned, I can see it
The struggle’s getting old
For a moment I can wait

Usually the addict burns out those surrounding them, to the point where the only people who will give them the time of day are fellow addicts.

‘Cause you said you’re sober
Lying and I can’t get closer
Tell me should I let you go
Tell me should I let you go

Sometimes they say yes, they’re in their cocoon, they’ll sacrifice everybody and everything for the drug, their addiction.

Every moment I’m awake
It’s a fight that you could never know
Every moment I’m awake
I’m clinging on to hope
And I feel so low but I’m dealing
The struggle’s getting old
Every moment I’m awake

Whoa, he was hooked too, he’s struggling to stay clean.

And it is a struggle. Your problems are not solved after a week of rehab, never mind a month. You’ve still got those feelings, what do you with all that time, you’re confronted with true life questions, who are you, where are you going, how do you fit into this world, and they are not instantly solvable.

But I’m getting sober
Trying but I can’t get closer

He’s hanging in there, but she’s in her own addicted bubble.

On and on we pray
Thinking ’bout time and our mistakes
Thinking ’bout time
Thinking ’bout time
It’s about time

The world keeps turning. People are finishing college, they’re starting their careers, they’re moving up the food chain at the supermarket, meanwhile you’re in suspended animation, and when and if you get sober you’re confronted with all that time you’ve lost and how far behind you are.

On one hand, the sound of “Sober” is not new. It’s actually reminiscent of the Stabilizers’ “One Simple Thing” from 1986. Which has been lost to history, it’s not even on Spotify, but you can check it out on YouTube, and you should:

Stabilizers – “One Simple Thing”

Unfortunately, “One Simple Thing” has a better chorus and better changes than “Sober,” proving that we seem to have lost the formula, when a minor hit from thirty plus years ago eclipses a number one from today.

Then again, the lyrics of the Bad Wolves song are more meaningful, even if the track is not as harmonious. But with a better chorus, “Sober” would be undeniable. If only someone at the label had pushed the band just a bit further.

But the interesting thing is “Sober” is on an indie label, Allen Kovac’s Better Noise/Eleven Seven. Got to give credit to Kovac, unlike everybody else his age still releasing music he’s not following the trends, releasing evanescent junk. Oh, that’s one more thing about rock, the fans are loyal, they’ll support you over years, as opposed to many on the hit parade, they’re not dependent upon a hit to do business.

But “Sober” is a hit, however minor in the overall sphere.

But if more people heard it would more people like it? And if “Sober” were bigger would it inspire others to make this music?

Then again, the key member of Bad Wolves, Tommy Vext, has been playing in bands since the nineties, he’s now thirty eight, whereas in the hit world, the younger and more inexperienced the better.

This is what happens in an uncurated, Tower of Babel world, it’s hard to cross verticals, people are unaware of that which they would enjoy if only they were exposed to it. Meanwhile, the bigger companies don’t want to take a chance/spend money/waste money on new territories, and will spew false facts to maintain their power.

Maybe you won’t like “Sober.” But if you were a rock fan, maybe you will.

Check it out.

In part two of my conversation with legendary record producer Bob Ezrin we delve deeply into his production of the first Peter Gabriel album and Pink Floyd’s “The Wall,” and further discuss his work with Alice Cooper as well as Deep Purple, the Kings, Phish and so much more!

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