Too many people wanted too many tickets.

Are Live Nation, Ticketmaster and Bruce Springsteen evil entities out to screw everybody? No.

Let’s investigate.

First and foremost, the goal is to eliminate scalping. I don’t think anybody would argue with the fact that Springsteen should get the benefit of all ticket sales, i.e. the revenue therefrom. Forget other issues, like seats not being on the manifest, let’s just focus on scalping. Scalping only exists because tickets are underpriced and people are willing to pay the markups that scalpers charge. It’s simple.

So what scalpers do is buy as many tickets as they can at face value and then resell them. But scalpers don’t buy every ticket in the house, they only buy the ones that they can resell at a profit. To make it even more complicated, there’s no guarantee that the scalpers will get back all the money they pay for tickets. Sometimes the show ends up being an unpredicted stiff. Sometimes the scalpers have paid more than face value for tickets via various purchase methods, like buying from fans who bought extra tickets, and ultimately they find they’re upside down, that they can’t resell the ticket profitably. Scalping is a business. Which many appreciate. Rather than going through the shenanigans of verification, getting up at a certain hour…you can relax and wait until just before the show, when you know you can go, and buy the tickets you want with no pressure that you must make a decision instantly. You’ll pay for this privilege, but many people are willing to.

As for the bots and other ways scalpers acquire tickets…

Scalpers only want tickets if they believe they can resell them profitably. So, if the tickets are originally priced at fair market value, this eliminates the bot problem, because if the ticket is a thousand bucks to begin with, how much more is someone gonna pay for it? Of course the front row may be worth more, but you get what I’m saying here. In fact, the front row for Springsteen is probably worth $5000. There are probably enough people willing to pay that. Maybe not that much, but definitely four figures.

So, for years Springsteen has been pricing his tickets too low. It’s a good look, it makes him appear to be a man of the people, but the upside, the uplift, ends up going to scalpers, and we’ve established above that almost everybody would prefer that this money go to Bruce himself.

So what to do…

Well, you could go the Garth Brooks route. Charge less and play until demand is exhausted. Talk about good will…fans love Garth for this. Although it’s a lot more work for less money for Garth, sometimes he even plays two shows in a day, but they’re not brief, maybe not as long as Springsteen shows, but longer than those of many acts. Garth is delivering value.

Most acts don’t want to deliver this value. Most acts are greedy, they want the money, especially in an era where even the most successful musician makes a fraction of the money that bankers and techies do.

So if you don’t want to play ad infinitum like Garth, what else can you do?

Charge what the tickets are worth. Which means a high price. Which is what the Stones have done for years. People used to bitch, they call the Stones money hungry, but in truth people are willing to pay these prices. And now the prices are flexed, as in up and down depending upon demand. And oftentimes, there are tickets available right up until showtime. Think about it, what are you willing to pay to go to the World Series, or the Super Bowl…the Stones come around less frequently than that!

But it’s all not programmatic with the Stones, it’s all not algorithmic. There’s a human element, which was missing from the Springsteen on sale.

So let me explain this…

You register in advance, you get a code, you’re a verified fan. The goal of this is to weed out scalpers. Ticketmaster can investigate who registered, who gets the codes. And yes, this information is valuable to Ticketmaster, it may even affect initial sales price, but probably not. Initial sales prices are discussed heavily, debated, they’re not established on a whim.

And Springsteen knows at least in major markets he can sell every ticket he wants.

But the dirty little secret inside the business is the demand for Springsteen tickets is not even close to that of many other acts. He’s got hard core fans, but not the same number in every market. So Bruce doesn’t want to have unsold tickets, so he does an underplay, the opposite of the Garth Brooks paradigm. And Bruce has made so much money, on Broadway, where tickets were verging on a thousand bucks, and via his catalog sale to Sony, that he doesn’t have to eke out every last dollar, so he plays indoors, even though in stadiums he can make so much more money, never mind accommodating more fans. But indoors is a better experience, and when it becomes about the music rather than the money…you do it the way you like best.

But, once again, whatever money is there Bruce wants to keep to himself, he doesn’t want to let it flow into the hands of third parties, i.e. the scalpers.

Which brings us back to the Boss fans. Everybody thinks they’re an original, that no one is more dedicated, that they’re ENTITLED to tickets, and good ones, AT A REASONABLE PRICE!

This is insane.

I’ve never met someone who saw Springsteen earlier than I have, except those who saw him as an opening act in his initial go-rounds. I saw him at the Bottom Line THE YEAR BEFORE “Born to Run.” That’s right, 1974. After “The Wild, The Innocent…” He was mind-blowingly good. But do I shake my pedigree in front of people’s faces saying that I should therefore be entitled to Springsteen tickets, good ones at a fair price, forever? OF COURSE NOT! I sat fewer than five feet away. Because demand was low and I lined up and got in early. But after “Born to Run”…

I’ve seen Springsteen many times, it’s never a bad show, but you’d think he’s God by the fervor of the fans. But we know that is incorrect, we know Jerry Garcia is God, and the Dead his apostles.

But Jerry is dead. Phil Lesh is 82. He doesn’t want to tour. But Bob Weir and a couple of drummers and John Mayer go out and play STADIUMS performing Grateful Dead music. At least it’s still the original Springsteen.

So everybody says they live for Bruce, he’s their number one and…

THEY WANT TO GO TO MULTIPLE SHOWS!

So, ladies and gentlemen, start your engines.

The on sale begins, the demand is insane, and the algorithm, not some evil genius at Ticketmaster or Live Nation or Bruce himself, sees this demand and jacks up prices through the roof.

Is it worth it to pay four digits for a ticket in the upper ring? I don’t think so, I don’t think many people would say so, but demand was so high that they ended up being that expensive.

As for the truth, how many tickets were offered at that price… The LN/TM/Bruce team isn’t speaking, because they got caught with their pants down, they didn’t foresee this problem, they didn’t expect the algorithm to go wild and cough up these crazy numbers!

But all the Boss fans are pissed if they can’t get a good ticket for every show right up front. So they’re bitching like crazy online, you should see my inbox. I’d like to see a report of what every seat actually sold for, but I doubt that will be forthcoming.

So some people paid outrageous prices and some people refrained from paying and…

What have we learned here?

Springsteen is a heritage act, it’s all about the old material, people want to hear “Rosalita,” not something from the twenty first century records. They want to relive their youth, they want to take their kids to see Bruce before he stops, or dies. But when they’re not going to see Bruce…

They’re buying Teslas. Living in 4,000 square foot homes. Believe me, the Boss’s audience is not broke. Those days passed long ago. He may project a working class image, but his fans are not working class. They’re willing to pay through the nose for everything but Springsteen tickets. And if it looks like Springsteen grew up and wants to get paid what he’s worth it messes with their image of him.

I hate to disillusion you, but Bruce is just a person. With foibles. Singing about driving before he owned a car. You’re the ones who built him up. And he’s not your friend. That’s just in your head. And this is the same WITH ALL THESE ACTS! And you don’t want to meet most, talk about being disillusioned.

So you’re laying your mental construct upon Bruce. Sure, he stimulated some of this, but he lost control of it decades ago. No one complained about Broadway prices, because there were so many fewer seats in the building and it was Broadway.

And Broadway is uber-expensive. The unions… But almost none of the shows charged what Bruce did, and they had much higher expenses. “Hamilton” was really the only show in Bruce’s league.

So it’s not like the fans didn’t get a warning, it’s not like Bruce didn’t show his hand.

So what is going to happen here?

One thing is for sure, the buildings will be full when Bruce plays the shows, the market will ensure this. We know there is a limited supply and a huge demand. What is a ticket worth exactly? WHO KNOWS! Which is why this algorithm based system was employed, to try to find out the value of a ducat. But not enough thinking was done to ensure that the machine didn’t go out of control with negative effects. So, if you’re willing to pay a lot to go, just hang on, as the dates get closer… You won’t find four digit seats up for grabs in the upper deck. That’s just too expensive.

Or maybe not. Like I said, Bruce’s camp has not released all the details. And believe me, Bruce is in control, the act always is. Live Nation and Ticketmaster do nothing the act doesn’t want them to.

So if you want to go to see one show on Bruce’s tour… You’re gonna pay a lot, especially the closer to the stage you are. Is it worth it? Only you can decide that.

But really, this kerfuffle is a lot of ink and angst about nothing. Everybody who ultimately attends the show will testify how great it is, especially since they got in the building and others did not.

And the next time around…

People are not going to opt out, sit on the sidelines, instead they’ll be more prepared, knowing what these tickets are worth.

And so will Bruce’s camp. They’ll come up with a better system. Because this cockamamie system is flawed.

Want to be egalitarian?

Eliminate all pre-sales.

But the acts won’t do this, they like the extra income.

Well, as for the rest of the tickets available…

The promoter could tell how many are actually available. Which they will never do. By time the on sale hits, many times fewer than a thousand seats in an arena are actually available, the rest have already been sold, your odds of getting a good ticket to a show at this point are extremely low, A GREAT TICKET? FUGGETABOUTIT!

What Bruce should have done is price the tickets so high that he knew there wouldn’t be instant sellouts. And then lowered them if the tickets didn’t move. Or keep them high until the end, trying to eke out every last dollar.

Humanly, this is impossible to do and make sure you get every last dollar. But if you want to get rid of the scalpers and get all the uplift yourself, you’ve got to do something like this. So far, we don’t have an algorithm, a program, that suffices all by its lonesome, which has been illustrated with this Springsteen on sale. Maybe it’s a hybrid of humans and machines, but you’ve got to have humans involved.

In any event, the public always bitches, always. And it’s the “biggest fans” who complain loudest, believing that based on their “fandom,” they’re entitled to great seats at a cheap price.

But this is untrue.

But they’d rather not look at themselves, they can never be at fault.

Do these same people go to Tesla and say they’ll pay half? Hell, at Tesla you pay what they say on the website, you’ve got no bargaining power, demand is so high that people have sold new cars for more than they paid for them!

This is economics. This is America. Live Nation/Ticketmaster/Bruce are doing their best to live in the present. But the fans…

THEY’RE LOCKED IN THE PAST!

The one and only.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/daryl-hall/id1316200737?i=1000570686898

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This story has been buzzing for months, but I point you to a recent article on the decline of new music in the United States:

“It’s Official: New Music Is Shrinking In Popularity In The United States”: https://bit.ly/3uZw9gv

Is new music not as good?

I’d argue that case, but that is not what is happening here. We’ve reached the tipping point, YOU JUST CAN’T REACH PEOPLE ANYMORE!

The music business is the canary in the coal mine. It’s where disruption happens first. What happens in the music business ultimately spreads to other industries. So what is happening here is there’s a plethora of product and the means of promoting that product has become ever less efficient and diverse.

Let me make it simple. Used to be if you were on AM radio everybody knew your name and music.

Then FM bifurcated the attention, but it turned out active listeners/buyers/concertgoers all listened to FM, so the business burgeoned, along with disposable income.

Then came MTV. MTV minted worldwide stars. Fewer acts got through the sieve, but those who did could play to audiences anywhere around the world. Even one hit wonders are embedded in everybody’s brain. Can you say “Take On Me”?

But then came the internet.

At first it was all about excavating the past. Both official and unofficial product. And while the oldsters were complaining about having their money stolen the younger generations, unexposed to the past, embraced the new tools of creation and distribution and soon seemingly everybody was making music.

And music was easier to make than ever before. Your computer could be your studio. You could buy the beats, and anybody could rap. There used to be a bar, you had to know how to play and write. Or someone with connections thought they could mold you into a star. Studio time was expensive. Most people could not play.

And at first all these people who were previously excluded posted on YouTube, and then SoundCloud, and finally Spotify and its ilk.

As for terrestrial radio? Seems like younger generations, who actively move the popular music needle, have given up on it.

So where you gonna hear the latest hits? What’s going to motivate you to rally around the priorities of the labels, pushing their product?

But if you want to really be shocked, read this article:

“No One Even Comes Close to Bad Bunny’s Stardom Right Now”: https://bloom.bg/3zks7SB

Here’s the meat of the story:

“Bad Bunny songs appeared in the Spotify top 100 more times over the last 2 months than those of Harry Styles, Olivia Rodrigo, Drake and Kendrick Lamar combined. Three of those four acts also released new albums. Post Malone, one of the most popular performers of the last few years, didn’t even crack the top 10.

Now let’s take it a step further. Bad Bunny beat every single record label in the industry. The only label that even came close is Columbia, which charted songs from more than a dozen artists, including Harry Styles, Lil Nas X, Adele and The Kid Laroi. Bad Bunny songs appeared more than twice as many times as acts from Atlantic, home of Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, Cardi B, Lizzo and Jack Harlow.”

That’s right, one single artist eclipsed the ENTIRE OUTPUT of every major label.

Talk about a blockbuster business.

The essence of Bad Bunny is he is worldwide, his music translates everywhere, whereas most of what is in the Spotify Top 50, at least the American acts, does not. In other words, new music is an ever smaller circle jerk, appealing to fewer and fewer customers.

Now the end result here will be more labels looking for more Bad Bunnys. But what we’ve learned is there is only mindshare for only a few of these ubiquitous acts. And those we think are ubiquitous often are not. Like Post Malone, his new album is a disappointment. And Beyonce’s new single has underperformed so far.

I mean could anybody get more ink, more publicity than Beyonce?

But ink no longer means that much. The endless reviews, the stories in the straight media. It all comes down to the public, which can be manipulated ever less in the modern world.

Used to be you paid the programmer to put your records on the station, whether it be with cash or CD players or TVs or other physical products. There was a direct connection from your label to the ears of the customer. That connection has been broken. The number one place to expose new music is TikTok, and the labels are all in cahoots with the Chinese social media company, but you can lead a horse to water, but that does not mean they’ll drink.

In other words, TikTok pushes music to its influencers, but they don’t have to use it. And even if they do, that does not mean it will go viral, with others making videos to the same music. The labels have lost control!

But what about the Spotify Top 50!

Take a look at it. It’s got a very narrow scope.

Then check out the genre playlists.

Yesterday I wanted to catch up on country music. I went on Spotify and they’ve got SEVENTY EIGHT official country playlists! The one I found most palatable, Heart of Texas… Most of these records don’t even show up in the Hot Country playlist, never mind the Spotify Top 50.

And there’s a plethora of playlists for every genre.

We’re told by the powers-that-be, the major labels with their hype machine and the publications who eat and regurgitate their pabulum, that we live in a hip-hop/pop world. But this is patently untrue. Yes, those genres have large reach, arguably the most. Then again, the biggest album of the last eighteen months is by Morgan Wallen, who sings songs, with verses and choruses, that you can sing along to, the kind that are rarely represented in the Spotify Top 50.

But number one is Kate Bush’s track from “Stranger Things.”

Does this mean old music is better than new music?

I’d say the old music is better, but that’s not what this statistic represents. It shows the power of Netflix, the power of one hit show. And TV is still expensive to make, and despite all the press about the number of shows it’s a small number compared to the number of records released.

But Netflix, et al, have huge competition. Not so much from each other, but from TikTok and YouTube. Kids spend hours on those platforms, that’s the center of culture except for a breakout here and there. And TikTok and YouTube have endless space, meaning that any “hit” reaches a smaller percentage of the public.

Going back to Kate Bush’s “Running Up That Hill”…

According to the MBW article above, catalog has increased by 14% compared to the 1.4% drop in new music consumption.

So there you have it folks, the old music is far superior, people want classic rock!

Well, they do, but that’s not what is going on here.

Turns out catalog is anything in excess of eighteen months old!

“Music originally released in 2019 alone took a 14% share of all ‘Catalog’ streams in H1 2022; music originally released in 2018 took an 11% share.

And music originally released in either of these years was more popular on US streaming services in the first half of 2022 than all music released in the 1990s combined.

Same goes for all music released in the 1980s, and all music released in the 1970s.”

So the decline of new music’s share is not so much about the golden oldies but the difficulty of creating hits in an ever more dense marketplace. People go to what they know, that’s what they want to hear. And more people know the old music than the new. Every year new music consumption goes down. Because it’s harder to reach people and create a ubiquitous hit.

Yes, the music business has returned to the fifties, the pre-Beatle era. It’s a small business run by shysters, only in this case the labels are all public companies. No one’s throwing the long ball, there’s almost no innovation, they keep doing what they know, which means new music reaches fewer people and outsiders can dominate the marketplace, i.e. Bad Bunny.

And in truth, Bad Bunny is distributed by the Orchard, now owned by Sony. But what does it say when your indie arm outdoes your main business?

So what does this mean for music in general.

There’s no there there. There is no Top 50. It’s an irrelevant metric. We no longer pool all music. Instead, there are various verticals. And it’s not about crossing over, nearly impossible, the verticals are ever more narrow and defined, but becoming as big as you can in the world you inhabit, which means you’re probably going to be less big than the hit acts of yore.

Which doesn’t mean you’ll be broke without an audience. There are so many more ways to monetize these days. And to know who your fans are and reach them. But worldwide dominance? Mostly a fairy tale.

And that which goes worldwide… Bad Bunny is quite good, but is that the music you’re creating, the kind that can play everywhere, can be understood by anybody who can appreciate a beat? Probably not. But expect in pursuance of the Bad Bunny paradigm ever less innovative Latin music from the major purveyors. They see all that money and want some. And they suddenly realize it’s a worldwide business, which is a good thing.

And we need Bad Bunnys, to bring us together, to make us feel part of society if nothing else. But creating them is nearly impossible, much harder than ever before. And, this means that the niches, the verticals not represented in the Spotify Top 50, are bigger than ever before.

Analogize politics. There are so many people you can’t reach with the truth, they don’t want to hear the truth, and there are outlets speaking to every predilection, every conspiracy theory.

And that’s what these people want, to belong to a tribe, just like a music fan. And we’ve always known the largest tribes are the least sustaining. Because it’s the casual fans who glom on when you need the dedicated hard core fans to continue.

So if radio means ever less, if the Mediabase numbers don’t mean much, and neither does the Spotify Top 50, what does count?

Well, concert grosses. And isn’t it interesting that those grosses rarely align with the Spotify Top 50. You can have a hit on that chart and still be unable to go on the road, not enough people willing to pay to see you.

We are living in an era of chaos. And in an era of chaos, most people look to the past to hang on to, something they are familiar with, something they know, otherwise the landscape is too overwhelming.

We let everybody play on Spotify, et al, and ultimately this contributed to the decline of the new music business. There’s just too much there for anybody to comprehend, so they revert to the oldies.

It’s only going to get worse. This is the new normal. Declining expectations.

Unless you’re Bad Bunny.

And even Bad Bunny didn’t know he was Bad Bunny. Worldwide domination always comes from left field, it’s unpredicted, you can’t clone it, you’ve just got to wait for it.

Everything, well, so much you thought you knew, is dead. That the majors are all powerful, that radio is all powerful, that charts are all powerful…

And it gets harder to comprehend each and every day.

Tune in today, July 19th, to Volume 106, 7 PM East, 4 PM West.

Phone #: 844-6-VOLUME, 844-686-5863

Twitter: @lefsetz or @siriusxmvolume/#lefsetzlive

Hear the episode live on SiriusXM VOLUME: siriusxm.us/HearLefsetzLive

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app: siriusxm.us/LefsetzLive