It’s 2023’s NFT. As in everyone’s talking about it, few understand it and the effect will be nowhere near as large as perceived.

Well, that’s not exactly right. Ultimately AI will have a big effect. But right now everybody is SCARED!

Yup, they’ve seen too many science fiction movies. The machines are going to take over the world. They’re going to kill the populace.

Hogwash.

First and foremost you’re already using AI and probably don’t realize it. When your iPhone tells you how long it will take to return to your point of departure, even though you didn’t ask it too. Or when it suggests apps to use. That’s AI.

AI makes life easier, not worse.

But what’s important here is the holding back of the future.

Let’s start with the writers, who’ve been screwed since day one, disrespected to boot. If the machines can write the scripts, LET THEM! Because every talented person knows they cannot write good ones. As for cleaning up/adding to an AI-written script… Rewrites are worth a fortune, and take less time. Furthermore, you can’t take a turd and turn it into chocolate pudding, it remains a turd. Put a BMW body on a Ford chassis and it may look like a BMW, be a car, will be able to drive, but it won’t be a BMW.

So everybody’s afraid. First and foremost of losing their job. Makes me crazy, if no one can sacrifice, how can we move forward? All you anti-free-traders out there, want to be like some South American country that legislates the populace must use a domestic product, even though it’s inferior? That’s one of the great things about America, you can buy and use all products. And, since so many are made overseas, they’re cheap (and some expensive too!)

So manufacturing left America. Do you really think you’d be able to buy a flat screen TV for a couple of hundred bucks if we couldn’t import them from China? No way. But, you say, all those people who used to make TVs in America… What are they going to do?

They lost out. Unless they were skilled.

Now don’t confuse what I’m saying with raw compensation issues. I believe in unions, I don’t like all the fat cats making billions off the backs of their low-paid workers and the consuming public. Workers should make more, but we should not guarantee them a job at the cost of moving forward.

Like that legislation in Congress to boost fossil fuels. Talk about a head-scratcher, makes no sense on the surface. In many cases, fossil fuels have already declined. In any event, fossil fuels damage the environment. Did you see the story in the news last week that the next five years are expected to be hotter than ever before? Oh, that’s right, you can’t trust the news, facts are fungible, better to place your faith in God, or some bloviator on an opinion page.

Progress happens. Hold it back at your peril.

Let’s talk about the drum machine. Roger Linn sampled playing and the performer got paid once. Should the drummer have been compensated for further use? I’d argue they should have, I’d say the drummer lacked foresight. I’ve got no problem with royalties. If AI scrapes your information to create something new you should get paid. However…

So for years drummers complained that the machine replaced them.

But a funny thing happened along the way. Many hit records used drum machines, not only to save money, but for the sound. And the records started featuring a drum “programmer.”

But that was back when major labels ruled and their productions were created for hundreds of thousands of dollars in commercial studios.

But then the audio companies came out with cheaper equipment that was nearly as good, if not as good, as that in the commercial studio. And home studios put a dent in the commercial studio business. Many fewer exist today.

And then came plug-ins, where you could simulate sounds of equipment made by legacy manufacturers, some who got license fees, others who got into the business themselves.

And simultaneously we had the internet. And Napster. Which sank recording revenues. So fewer acts made expensive records. And the old acts complained that the old paradigm was being eviscerated. As did the labels, who wanted the CD to be standard, physical forever (and Netflix just canned its DVD by mail division). Everybody wanted to preserve the status quo.

But suddenly, live burgeoned. There are more events at higher prices than ever before. Sure, the mailbox money might not be so good, but tell me about an industry that is unaffected by progress, where its workers never have to pivot, and I’ll show you one where with many unemployed workers.

Like in the legal business. Used to be there were secretaries, who did all the typing. Now the lawyers do it themselves and there is no typing pool. But being able to edit on a computer? A godsend. And all those typists doing a mindless job? They’re freed to do something more stimulating, more productive, maybe in the tech field that displaced them.

And let’s go back to the drum machine. Suddenly, everybody could make a record at home, they didn’t need a live drummer. And we started having hits that were made at home, sometimes by one person. All impossible without the drum machine.

And all the studio gigs for drummers and other players declined to almost nothing when labels stopped laying out all that money for all that time in commercial studios.

You see what you think is a loss is actually progress. And it plays out over time with many innovations.

And with progress comes loss, it’s inevitable.

Cars used to come with vent windows. For ventilation. But then when all cars came with A/C, the manufacturers eliminated them. I liked the vent windows, but I like A/C in every car better. Think about it, you call up an Uber and it has vent windows and no A/C. There’s airflow in the front seat, but you’re in the back. Shvitzing if there’s no A/C.

We’ve got to stop protecting people’s jobs for the sake of their jobs. I’m not saying they should go broke, I believe in the welfare system, I might even believe in a guaranteed income. Then again, if you think education is b.s. and all you can do is manual labor, you’re going to be in trouble when your job disappears. And it always seems to, that’s the nature of progress. And I hate to sound like a Republican here, but that’s your responsibility, to prepare for the future. Unlike the Republicans I don’t want to leave you out in the cold, I don’t want you to starve. You’re entitled to a roof over your head, food on the table, a free education and I’d say health care too. That free education… Can we stop dissing public schools, the ones the Republicans call “government schools”? Just because you can afford to send your kid to private school… And I’d argue that we’d be better off if people were better educated so they could actually understand what is going on, but instead, in Florida and other states, they’re limiting what is taught. How is this progress? It’s just like the fear of AI. It’s the bogeyman. Information helps broaden one’s view, the key is to teach people how to sift through information, but we’ve devolved into an indoctrination educational system, keeping people dumb, why?

If AI can write a better song than the hitmakers, let it! It would serve the public. But that je ne sais quoi, that innovative element that pushes art into the iconic, AI can’t do that. And if it ever can… Once again, if it’s just as good as you it should take your job, free you to do something else. Should we be coal-mining and strip-mining forever?

How about all those people who lost their jobs when Eli Whitney created the cotton gin?

Or the laundries that lost customers with the advent of home washing machines and dryers?

Or the ice companies who were put out of business by refrigerators?

There were people behind each and every one of those businesses, which were put out of business.

So when people keep telling you about the dangers of AI, ignore them, because they’re ignorant. Yes, AI will change the landscape, FOR THE BETTER!

During the Napster era people said no one would pay for music again.

Well, that turned out to be untrue. Streaming came along and paid quite handsomely, but only if you had a big hit. But all the people who used to be supported by record companies complain that the system is unfair. How unfair can it be if you’re compensated based on listenership? There are other ways to make money in the music business, more than ever before. And, the percentage of Spotify revenues going to the hits keeps declining. And everybody who makes music is not entitled to make a living at it. Just because you can put a recording up on Spotify, that does not mean you should be rich.

But you can record nearly for free in your bedroom and put the end result on Spotify for almost nothing and then hype your work all over the web, FOR FREE! Everybody overlooks this.

Fear the future at your peril.

Embrace it. It will be good to you. As long as you are aware and willing to pivot.

Should we have kept CD pressing plants in business?

No, the medium of music delivery changed. Are we going to stop progress across the board?

I say no.

And in your heart you say the same thing.

Songs with “Friend” in the title.

Tune in Saturday May 20th, to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.

Phone #: 844-686-5863

Twitter: @lefsetz

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz

“The Unexpected Reason Apple Is Dominating the U.S. Smartphone Market – It’s not just lavish marketing and the threat of green bubbles—Apple’s commitment to supporting old phones has allowed it to capture a part of the market once cornered by inexpensive Android devices”: https://on.wsj.com/43b0Q0J

I can’t get this article out of my head.

Last night I wrote about the “New York Times”‘s new Audio app. And I promptly received e-mail from “Times” subscribers complaining that it doesn’t work on Android, at least not yet.

You recall the memo. Apple lost the market share race in smartphones, although it won the profitability game. Steve Jobs threatened to sue Google for Android, calling it a copycat. So Apple kept raising prices and the world went Android. Or did it?

Apple’s market share is climbing around the world, and it’s primarily due to used phones. You see they have a shelf life, value, that Androids do not. And they tend to look the same to boot. So you can buy an old iPhone for a couple of hundred bucks and be a member of the club.

And those club members get hooked on the Apple ecosystem and buy not only further Apple products, but Apple subscriptions.

To the point that Apple’s U.S. smartphone market share was 50% in June, and 52.5% in December. And one of the great drivers of this increased market share is the youth. If your messages appear in a green bubble, you’re ostracized, it must be blue. The youth start trends, you lose them at your peril, they form brand relationships at a young age, so this is a good sign for Apple.

And overseas, you can get a high status iPhone for a couple of hundred bucks used. So market share is climbing there too.

So, wait long enough and the iPhone might dominate around the world.

And why is this happening? Primarily because Apple controls the operating system and supports old iPhones with new software for years.

So it appears conventional wisdom is wrong. The iPhone is not a niche product solely supported by the wealthy.

You can keep your Android phone. You can tell me how it’s more customizable, but there will come a point, much earlier than with an iPhone, that you’ll have to replace it, because it’s no longer supported by software upgrades, if it ever was, and on a smartphone security is key.

Also, you can shoot the messenger, but when adults see the dreaded green bubble in their iMessage thread, they wince and wonder who is using an Android phone. Furthermore, when they send a message to an Android phone they don’t get a message that it’s been delivered.

This is what’s happening. Make your own choices. But be aware of everybody else’s.

“Office Brainstorms Are a Waste of Time – Giving workers alone time could yield more innovation than getting everyone in a room, research”: https://on.wsj.com/3MGcPya

I hate collaboration. My best ideas come when I’m alone. And they come to me when I’m doing something else, standing in the shower, hiking… It’s when I’m relaxed, not under pressure, focusing elsewhere that inspiration arrives. Oftentimes in the evening, late at night, when everybody else is decompressing and incoming trickles down.

As for having everybody in the office… If they’re there to come up with ideas, this article says that’s not the way to do it. Sure, there are other advantages to being in the office, but coming up with new ideas in a group is not one of them.

Also, this speaks to music creation. You can write a song by committee, but the best stuff is written alone. Even the Beatles…turns out John and Paul didn’t write those songs together, especially as the group aged. Do it alone and it’s more personal. You work when you want to.

Furthermore, I’m a big believer in inspiration. Sure, if you have to deliver you can’t wait for inspiration, but the best stuff always comes from inspiration, you’re elated, it’s like you’re channeling the work.

Elton and Bernie worked in two rooms.

I know, in Nashville they have appointments to write songs, but that’s why Nashville popular country music has such a bad reputation, it sounds like the songs were written by committee, appealing to the lowest common denominator. Then again, dig deeper and you find that so many of the great songs written by committee really weren’t. One writer comes in with an idea, and the others inspire him and help him to finish it.

Read the article, food for thought.

P.S. You have to pay for news like this. Both stories are based on fact. This is not what you find on social media. Meaning there end up being two tiers of people, the informed and the uninformed, those in the know and those who are not. If you read the WSJ and the NYT cover to cover every day…you’ll find you can hold your own with any CEO on the planet.

P.P.S. Those are free links, a perk I get from being a WSJ subscriber.

“Introducing a New Audio App for Our Journalism and Storytelling -New York Times Audio provides news, depth and serendipity.”: https://nyti.ms/41OCMzN

This was not supposed to happen. New players were supposed to come along, disrupt the the staid Grey Lady and leave it in the dust. But just the opposite is happening. Vice and BuzzFeed news failed. And in a world of too many messages, too many unresearched and false, the “Times” has more impact than it ever has. You may hate it, but it’s affecting your life even if you avoid it, because the “Times” sets the agenda for the whole world, the right needs something to rebel against, there’s not an equivalent right wing newsgathering source, mostly there’s opinion, and at the end of the day people want facts.

And they want to be informed.

Sure, many people don’t care about the news, but if you’re hungry for it, the “Times” is the place to go. It has more reporters in more places than competitors and a bigger newshole and…

You’ve got to pay for it.

Oh, you can read ten articles a month for free. 

But that’s not enough.

Assuming you’re into the news.

So you subscribe. It’s cheap. Assuming you’re willing to pay.

That’s the hurdle, getting people to pay. But once you’re unconcerned with reaching everybody, knowing that your power is so great that you reach everybody anyway, via outside forces, you can charge.

Even worse for competitors, although there are news junkies like myself who will subscribe to multiple papers, most people will only pay for one. Or maybe two. The local, and the “New York Times.” I mean if you’re paying, why not get the best?

I’m not saying the “Washington Post” and the “Wall Street Journal” are bad, I pay for them, but they’re a noticeable step behind the “Times.” After Trump left office, WaPo subscriptions stalled. But the “Times”‘s did not.

And then the “Times” started to diversify, build upon its empire. All the news is about Elon Musk and Twitter, but the real story is the “Times.”

There’s the “Wirecutter,” the “Athletic,” “Cooking” and “Games,” with the “Crossword.” You can pay for them individually, but the bundle is so much more appealing. Apple’s bundle? Not a deal. The “Times”‘s? A no-brainer.

So there was just a stealth introduction of the Audio app. I read about it yesterday and downloaded it, today the “Times” pushed me a notice in its app (as for notifications…the only ones I allow are from Libby, for library books, I don’t need an endless scroll…then again, I’m checking my phone constantly during the day…oh, I can put it down for dinner, but if I’m alone…except at night, bugs me when people tell me not to text them late, don’t they turn off the sound…but too many are Luddites…especially in this 24/7 world where people are waking up when you’re going to bed).

All the podcast apps…put up everything, like Spotify. And most of it is junk. Poorly recorded people speaking inanities. You have to separate the wheat from the chaff. But even worse, it’s hard to find great stuff under the morass. But on the “Times” Audio app…

It’s a walled garden. For subscribers only.

And it’s got breaking news. Know how the podcast you’re listening to from this morning is already out of date? Well, the “Times” is now publishing news/podcasts later in the day, after events have transpired.

So you’ve got a cornucopia of “Times” content. Some brand new.

But you also have curated content from other outlets. But a very limited number. In terms of publishers, there’s the “Atavist,” “Foreign Policy,” “Mother Jones,” the “New Republic,” “New York,” “Outside” and “Rolling Stone.” I.e. there is CURATION!

This is what has been promised in music for more than a decade which has not arrived. Playlists never lived up to the hype, because there are too many tune-outs and not enough people are listening to any one to create mass. For a minute there we had Tuma Basa’s Rap Caviar, but then he left Spotify for YouTube and he’s now nearly irrelevant. The imprimatur of the organization means something, and most people don’t follow you to your new home (remember this Tucker Carlson), and Rap Caviar has lost its luster on Spotify because personalities matter, and now there’s no longer a recognizable face.

What we’re looking for is a very few tracks that most of us listen to. But all the record companies and independent creators don’t want to be left out, so we’ve got zillions of trash tracks on the streaming outlets. But if someone only put up the best…we could have a more cohesive music business.

But no one has the power of the “Times” in music.

So now if you’re looking for a podcast…

Well, first the “Times” is timely. And that makes a difference in news. But also, the choices are limited, so you can comprehend the landscape.

The “Times” also has “This American Life,” but overall it’s got little, in an overwhelming world of too much.

So what’s your first stop? Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon, Stitcher, individual publishers’ sites or…the “Times”?

The “Times” sits above. It’s not for everybody, but somebodies. It’s a club, and if you don’t belong…

This is not Facebook, the great unwashed intimidating each other with falsehoods.

This is authorized, curated, appealing to the intelligentsia, who drive this world. And so many people want to consider themselves members of the intelligentsia.

The “Times”‘s the “Daily” is already the number one podcast on so many platforms. That’s what people want. So it’s a no-brainer to start at the “Times” Audio app, assuming you’re a subscriber. And if you’re not, the “Times” just made it more enticing.

And I was listening to Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway talk about the twentysomething who bought “Forbes” for $800 million…insane! But what was mentioned is that the “Times” is not a great business. What they meant was it’s not a tech company minting billionaires.

But that’s something the public has forgotten in this income inequality world wherein the rich have been venerated. It’s not about money, it’s about power. And sure, sometimes money yields power, but if you can speak truth to power, if you’re perceived as not being beholden to the almighty dollar, then you’re more powerful than all of the richies, assuming you have mass.

The “Times” has mass.

Forget the locals already, we need local news but the model is broken. To the point that papers have slimmed down to maintain profits and there’s nothing left. Everybody in L.A. used to read the “Los Angeles Times,” now almost everybody I know has given up their subscription. You can feel good if your album is hyped in the “Los Angeles Times,” but it means next to nothing, because no one sees it, or those who do are those who don’t matter!

Is this the future? A walled garden with fewer offerings?

I mean Amazon cocked up its site with ads and inferior products from China. The Everything Store really shouldn’t have absolutely everything.

But really, when it comes to intellectual as opposed to physical objects…you can’t read everything, you want someone to clarify the scene.

The “Times” is the first major to do so successfully.

We’ll see if anybody else can replicate their model.