“Tesla sales plunge far more than expected”: https://t.ly/1FSIB

A first mover advantage only gives you a head start, to maintain it you must continue to improve to stay ahead of the pack.

Tesla is selling old vehicles in a world where the new is everything. Elon Musk wants you to buy a Model T when the competition is selling spaceships. That’s Detroit’s core competence, exterior design. As for interiors and engineering, the Germans dominate here.

Needless to say, Volkswagen bumbled its early start in electric vehicles by not getting software right, by approaching its development like physical items. Software needs a single team and oftentimes fewer developers are better. VW had multiple teams, had to change overseers and its first autos had to be shipped sans features because they couldn’t get the software right.

As for BMW… It was early, then hit the brakes, but in the decade since the introduction of the Model S, BMW has now turned its efforts around:

“BMW Is a Surprise Winner in Electric Vehicles”: https://t.ly/McKp1

Now in truth, when it comes to luxury vehicles, most are leased. Meaning someone might have started out with a Tesla, but after three years they want something different. And for a long while there were no real options, but now there are. Furthermore, the BMWs and MBZs are far more luxurious, the Tesla interiors are still spartan.

As for software… Musk’s self-driving software has been riddled with accidents and bad decisions, like not using LIDAR. Not everything Musk does is correct. And despite the introduction of a new system just recently, it is expensive and perception of the public is negative and perception is everything, just ask Joe Biden. And you have to pay attention anyway, not to mention that other manufacturers are gaining in self-driving.

And then there’s price. Despite Tesla’s lowering of cost to consumers, in China there are cheaper alternatives. And BYD and its brethren can introduce a new model in less than two years. Meanwhile, Musk over-promises and under-delivers. The new cheap Tesla? Keep waiting. Hell, the Cybertruck few wanted took years to finally come to market, which is like promising new housing and only building a high end needle skyscraper years late.

And then there’s Stellantis, which says its EVs are now profitable. Which is a black mark on GM and Ford, who just can’t get it right.

“Why Stellantis’s CEO Remains All-In on EVs as Others Retrench”: https://apple.news/ASZQPI5ITTF-eHdWaPZab7g

Needless to say, there’s an anti-EV drumbeat, led by the “Wall Street Journal” and the right. But for all those winter charging stories… Turns out most people charge at home and no one ever talks about gas car batteries dying in winter, cars not starting, which you know all about if you’ve ever lived north of the Mason-Dixon Line.

And you can’t fight progress. Remember all the people who said they wouldn’t give up their CDs? That MP3s sounded inferior? That they had to own things?

Change happens, and oftentimes the mainstream customer wakes up last. Worst is when the customer wakes up before the industry, which is what happened in music, with Napster. You’ve got to be a shark in business, never sleeping, always improving.

And in what kind of world can you have your CEO so distracted? Running a car company is a full-time job.

And then there’s Musk’s identity/personality. Tesla was a cult, new cars were sold by old customers testifying. Now you don’t want to testify because you’re going to be inundated with Elon hate. You stay quiet. In today’s multifarious world selling is done bottom-up, not top-down. There are just too many messages for yours to gain traction. What you need are acolytes, spreading the word.

What happens to Tesla? Right now it’s too valuable for another manufacturer to swallow it. Maybe there can be a merger. Because Tesla’s software is still valuable, and could be put to good use by a competitor. Tesla’s core competency has always been software, not manufacturing. Apple doesn’t manufacture most of its products, why should Tesla?

And the bottom line is the U.S. is moribund. While we fight tribal wars, China and the rest of the world are taking great leaps forward. If you think everything starts and grows in the U.S. today, you’re plain wrong. Electric vehicles are surging in China and in Europe. It’s only a matter of when you drive an electric car. Do you even have a CD player anymore?

If you are an industry leader, you cannot rest on your laurels. You must continue to improve your product or others will eat your lunch, especially if there are legacy competitors who are given time to wake up.

We’ve learned this again and again in tech, where what you did yesterday does not matter today. Microsoft fell asleep. But now it has pivoted into storage a la AWS. Suddenly Apple is behind the eight ball on AI. How come Microsoft saw the future and Tim Cook did not?

This applies to all verticals. You might be a leader today, but you must continue to innovate and risk to be a leader tomorrow. And image is everything. You mess with it at your peril.

Merck had to do something to save the company and his reputation.

“Hipgnosis Songs Fund Overstated Revenue, Earnings & Its Stakes in Music Catalogs, Says New Report – Shot Tower Capital says inadequate financial analysis and management from the investment adviser led to inaccurate information at multiple levels.”: https://shorturl.at/yFIV7

Damning at many levels. Turns out being a friend to the artist does not mean you’re a friend to Wall Street, does not mean you understand financials. Merck is seen as the latest in a long line of entertainment industry hucksters and despite making millions creating Hipgnosis and managing it from a separate company, Merck is indignant.

However, savvy observers believe this has little to do with Hipgnosis, that Merck is just trying to burnish his image with Blackstone, his partner, which will probably end up owning all the assets of Hipgnosis anyway.

Now Merck’s pitch to the artists selling to Hipgnosis was they would never find a better friend than him, someone who understood them, who had their best interests at heart. But now, with the assets being devalued and mismanaged, Merck is doing what every red-blooded American, er, Canadian, does, that is focus on himself, put self-interest first. And therefore, Merck is ramming through this AI policy irrelevant of what Hipgnosis artists say. He’s got the right, at least he believes he does. And good luck litigating, I mean how deep are your pockets? Look at all that bread Trump is spending on legal defense. I won’t say Hipgnosis is willing to spend that much, but they’re willing to spend more than you, so artists are SOL.

So here’s the deal, Hipgnosis is going to start issuing AI songs from their artists. First in line is Elton John, with a third iteration of “Captain Fantastic.”

Yes, you’ll remember that it was Merck who got Elton to do a second “Captain Fantastic” album back in 2006, “The Captain & the Kid.” Forget that it was an artistic and commercial flop, Merck is akin to Steve Jobs and his reality distortion field, once Merck gets you in his sights, good luck resisting him.

But this time the album is about Elton’s marriage and family. In the modern world everybody wants to know more about their favorite artists, so there’s a ready market for this. And it will keep Elton’s legacy alive until he gets sick of retirement and goes back on the road. Elton and Merck see this as a win-win.

As for Neil Young, yes, “Harvest II” is in the works. If you loved “Heart of Gold,” if “Old Man” now resonates, you’re going to love this. And now that Neil is back on Spotify, cash will flow.

As for “After the Gold Rush II”… That’s on the back burner, Neil’s worried about looking like a breadhead, so the next Neil Young AI album will be “Trans II,” with liner notes from David Geffen, admitting that he was wrong, that Neil was ahead of his time, EDM ultimately triumphed, and it was a mistake to sue Neil for the original album not being commercial.

As for those who are dead, expect a new Christine McVie Fleetwood Mac style album. Merck is angling to call it “Fleetwood Mac,” but Lindsey has so far said no, pissed that he was kicked out of the band.

Richie Sambora? He’s coming back. If Jon Bon Jovi could remake “Wanted Dead or Alive” as “Blaze of Glory” for the film “Young Guns II,” Richie feels that creating a new take for Andy Cohen’s “Housewives” franchise is fair play. And let’s be honest, more people are interested in the “Housewives” than any new music from Bon Jovi. The Housewives are the new rock stars, living without limits, spending their dough willy-nilly. Realizing the opportunity, Jon is about to throw in, remembering what “Deadliest Catch” did for the original number. Tommy used to work on the docks, but he’s now got a bad back and disability is not paying the bills, so why not?

So what exactly is involved?

Insiders believed that Merck/Hipgnosis would employ “Suno”:

“A ChatGPT for Music Is Here. Inside Suno, the Startup Changing Everything – Suno wants everyone to be able to produce their own pro-level songs – but what does that mean for artists?”: https://shorturl.at/kvNVW

But Merck had Dave Stewart test the software and it was determined it was too primitive for Hipgnosis’s use. Merck is about flash, the big show, the breakthrough, and therefore he’s partnering…

You’d think it would be Sam Altman and Microsoft, but you’d be wrong.

Merck is partnering with Elon Musk. Yes, Hipgnosis has got Nikki Sixx’s songs, might as well get in bed with the devil, since shouting didn’t seem to work.

This is a joint Tesla/SpaceX endeavor. The code has been written. It’s beta for now, but everybody who’s heard it is absolutely astounded. You see the software can replicate artists at their peak, before their voices cratered and they could no longer write hit songs. Garbage in, garbage out. But with this software, code-named “GrimesX,” only the best stuff is put in, so only the best stuff comes out.

So what you do is enter the greatest hits of an artist, and then there are various boxes to check. Do you want to add an 808? Do you want it to sound like today or yesterday? Furthermore, personal information from each artist is entered to help flesh out the lyrics. Now every artist has not agreed to contribute, but there’s so much public domain information…

Merck has hired the children of David Dunn, Shot Tower’s majordomo, to write up these bios. At highly inflated salaries. Merck figures it’s best to embrace your enemy. And let’s not forget David Dunn almost rescued Michael Jackson, hopefully he can rescue Hipgnosis.

“Michael Jackson was near bankruptcy banker testifies as court prepares to decide if his estate owes $1 BILLION in unpaid taxes”: https://rb.gy/gd8fgg

Now we all know it’s hard to create a hit these days. But with the right promotion… Remember all the hoopla about that execrable new Beatles track last fall? Merck specializes in promotion, that’s one of the complaints in the Shot Tower findings, that $1.5 to $2 million was spent every year on awards shows and PR, “Including significant payments to multiple industry periodicals”… So, is that why Merck always gets such favorable ink in “Hits”? Dennis and Lenny will throw Merck a bone by promoting these AI cuts, but not forever, not without more moola.

So if Merck pulls this off… Not only are the fortunes of Hipgnosis turned around, the asset value of the company will be so high that Merck plans to make a run at Universal. He wants Lucian to work for him! You might think this is impossible, but you don’t know how much money Blackstone has, and the business is all about money and stock price these days, believe me.

Since Merck is the first customer, and is providing such legendary artists for material, X will heavily promote these new AI concoctions. Expect to see and hear this new music when you scroll.

So who needs artists?

The cost of new music production is too high. And it’s nearly impossible to break a new act. So why not just milk the classic acts, the ones signed to Hipgnosis?

Merck and Hipgnosis have first mover advantage here. Despite all the complaints, once these AI tracks start bringing in the dough, everybody else will want in. No one was selling their catalog, and then Dylan did and everybody followed. But once you sell… You lose control, at least most of it. To get those big bucks you’ve got to give something up.

Forget K-pop, forget Beyoncé going country, AI is much bigger than both. AI is a musical revolution. And GrimesX is already astonishingly good. I’ve heard it and I was wowed. We’ve been waiting for a new Beatles for over half a century. Now we can have them. Along with a new Stones, a new Yes and a new Debbie Gibson.

Enough with the wannabes complaining about streaming payments, best to let the superstars reign and hoover up all the money.

Right now it’s too expensive to replicate ABBA’s Voyage. but don’t think Merck isn’t laying the pipe.

He’s a visionary I tell you!

You’ve got what I want and if I can’t have it too, I’m going to tear you down to the level I’m at. I’m entitled. You’re no better than me.

Or maybe you are. I see you on Instagram. God, I wasn’t born that beautiful. Forget what’s behind the facade, it’s amazing what makeup and Photoshop can do. I’m angry and depressed I lost the genetic lottery and someone has to pay for that.

As for your fabulous lifestyle… I’m at home on Saturday night with my fingers in my pants streaming “Friends.” No one invites me to a party where everybody wears white in the Hamptons. I live in America, where’s my opportunity?

Down the drain. Income inequality keeps growing and the myth keeps spreading that we can have it all, when in truth nobody can have it all. Hell, even Elon Musk complains.

But we didn’t used to be exposed to it all. Now we can see it, at our fingertips, it’s just a click away. How do we get there?

Oh, there are a ton of gurus online peddling advice. That’s their business, giving you false hope. And when you end up even deeper in the hole, poorer than before, you’re beyond frustrated, you’re angry. You keep being told to lift yourself up by your bootstraps and you’re trying but in truth that’s very hard to do.

Just respect the corporation and the rich, the job providers.

But how come I have to work a split shift at the fast food restaurant?

Shut up, you’re lucky you’ve got a job. And you’ve got an iPhone and a flat screen TV and I walked thirty miles in the snow to school so stop complaining, you’ve got it good, even though you have trouble making ends meet.

Meanwhile, Wall Street bought up all the homes in your neighborhood, jacked the rents and now you can’t afford a home of your own!

Not that you used to feel entitled to a house. But Bush II essentially said it was an American right. And how did that doofus end up being President anyway. I wish my father was rich and famous, never mind President.

I see all these winners all around me, why am I a loser?

Money for nothing and your chicks for free. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

So if you go to Harvard you make buddies that will grease the way for you to make billions. I didn’t go to Harvard, does that mean I’m SOL?

And these online influencers are making beaucoup bucks. Forget that it’s a 24/7 gig with rampant burnout, they’re getting notice, they’re getting rich and I keep posting and nothing is happening for me!

I mean it’s one thing if you’re uber-smart and talented. But so many of these people are truly no better than me. How come they can make it and I can’t?

Now it used to be different. There used to be a clear division between the winners and the losers, the haves and the have-nots. But the internet blew that paradigm to hell. What the internet provided was a road, a vision, a way to the top that was never visible before. It was possible to become rich and famous all by your lonesome, without the approval of institutional gatekeepers. And now that I can see the destination and a path, if I dedicate myself I should be able to make it, right? I mean if I have to look at another wanker on social media with undeserved riches…

I can play the guitar, I can sing. I keep reading about these online phenoms, how come I’m not one of them?

Oh, and I believe everything I read and see in the phony news edifice that is all about clicks. If it bleeds it leads? That was local TV news, online if it titillates it’s the headline. You click through and oftentimes find nothing. A story you already know or no story at all. Sometimes written by AI!

And I keep going backwards. It’s harder to pay my bills. Those damn immigrants are at fault, coming to the U.S. to work dirty, minimum wage jobs. They’re taking away work from true blue Americans I tell you. And one thing is for sure, I don’t want to pay for them. The government already wastes my tax money.

As far as anybody in power listening…

Well, Joe Biden is old and out of touch. Sure, he’s compassionate, but I don’t think he understands me and my problems. Is that the job of the President? I’m not sure, but someone’s got to stand up for me.

And while I’m losing I’ve got the Trump show to watch. It’s very entertaining, but even I know it’s ultimately b.s., that this guy is a phony grifter.

So who is truly looking out for me?

I can’t find someone, other than myself. So I’ve got to fight my own battles.

Now my expectations used to be lower. Go to school, get a job, get married and settle down. But that’s not enough anymore. If the person down the block is going on vacation, I should be able to too. Seems like everybody is winning but me. And I can’t buy that, and I’m pissed!

Meanwhile, those in power want to take away the means of communication. They talk on the phone, they don’t even text. They don’t know that social media is informative and entertaining. I’m interested first and foremost in people, the world runs on gossip, what am I supposed to do, stare at the wall?

And if you don’t like what I do I’m going to come down on you. You’re not a fan of BTS? Then you’re a worthless piece of crap. You didn’t like “Barbie”? What’s wrong with you, everybody else did, groupthink rules. You know better than to have a contrary opinion.

Just vote and everything will work out.

Yeah, I keep voting and and nothing happens. Even worse, I lose the right to abortion. I can’t even get it up anymore for fear the condom will break.

Oh, it’s the same as it ever was. You’re just a complainer.

But it isn’t the same as it ever was. You keep getting richer and lording it over me. You’ve got a multi-hundred foot yacht and all the celebrities I thought I believed in are partying on it. No one invited me. Meanwhile, I can’t make money selling on Amazon because the terms keep getting more onerous. But I should have respect for Jeff Bezos, who stole his good friend’s wife!

Man, I’m living by the rules and losing and the winners think the rules don’t apply to them. Why should I keep doing the right thing?

No, I’m going to go on attack. And with the internet, I cannot only tell my friends, but everybody in the world. Why isn’t anybody paying attention to me? Meanwhile, the winners are hurt I’m dissing them. Tough noogies, it goes with the territory.

Truth? In a world where Biden won and Trump and his cronies keep saying the election was stolen… The truth doesn’t matter. And if you got a vaccine I don’t want one, because I hate you. And I can point to stories online that prove I’m right.

The system must be rigged, I tell you.

And in truth, the system is rigged in many ways. But even if you’re born with a silver spoon in your mouth, you’ve got to work hard and take risks to win, that has never changed, you don’t sit at home and get lucky.

But I don’t want to put in the effort. It’s more satisfying just trying to take down the winners, I love to see them squirm, those compromised a-holes. 

I mean if I can’t win, someone’s got to lose. And I’ll put all my effort into taking you down, I’m watching you, don’t think you can get away with it. And what’s wrong with you that you have to parade your success in front of me 24/7 anyway. And how come you need no portfolio to become a success. I mean if the Kardashians can make it, I’m entitled to at least a little piece of the pie, right?

This sucks. Everybody’s living a better life than me. Screw whether that’s true, that’s the way it feels. And since no one is sticking up for me, I’m on a personal crusade to right the wrongs, to make the winners suffer. Beware.

You’re not a star and you’re never going to be one.

Now that felt good, didn’t it?

The twentieth century was all about technology putting a few artists in front of everybody. First and foremost, only a few could make and distribute recordings, never mind get on the radio. But deep pocketed labels scoured for talent and the main job was to get the record on the radio. What the act looked like, their backstory, were considerations, but very minor, everything came down to the record itself. And since recording was expensive and primitive, it was necessary to play the song all at once and get it right. In other words, talented people had to be involved, which is why studio cats were hired, you couldn’t risk letting the band itself record.

In the late sixties and seventies, suddenly music drove the culture, technology allowed multiple tracks and effects for recording and consumers purchased high end stereos to get closer to the music.

And in the eighties, MTV came along to make those who were anointed with airplay bigger and richer than ever before. You could reach everybody in the world, and everybody knew who you were.

And the nineties was just the eighties on fumes. Expensive videos with good-looking people.

And then the internet came along and blew it all apart.

First and foremost, mystery was history. Everybody was available all the time. Your heroes turned out to be just like you, but oftentimes uneducated and inexperienced. And going to a show became about the audience as much as the performer. Hanging with your buddies, shooting selfies, posting on social media. And with expensive tickets, acts were forced to present spectacle and perfection. Today’s big concerts oftentimes resemble the circus more than the Fillmore East.

But everybody has the same expectations.

Which are false.

The game has reset. It’s about the music. And this confounds not only the labels, but the creators.

Since the Beatles, songs came straight from the heart, they were personal testimony. But then opportunity cost became so high that the songwriter for hire came back into the picture. The labels try to polish, ensure success. No different from a movie studio making a superhero sequel. How often do the studios risk producing product outside their traditional wheelhouse? Almost never, comedies don’t play around the world and the spreadsheet comes before the creativity.

So now we have all these musicians who want in on a system that no longer exists.

Believe me, the independent artists complaining about streaming payments think they’re one step away from world domination. Something must be holding them back. The game must be rigged. Because they’re so damn good if they just got a decent chance they’d be ubiquitous, and rich.

But this paradigm is fading. Spotify statistics tell us that the percentage of revenue going to superstars keeps declining. If the superstars are reaching fewer people, what are the odds that you can reach many? Very low.

I’m not saying you can’t make a living making music, just that you have to adjust your perspective, how much money you need, not want, and you’ve got to work around the clock. That’s what it takes to get noticed.

Ironically, you should spend less time in the studio and more time promoting yourself. The exact opposite of what technology enabled in the seventies and eighties. If you got it right musically, the system would make you a star. Today you can get it right musically and only your parents are aware of your music.

No one seems to be able to adjust to this new game. The majors keep putting out less product while they slim the ranks of employees. How long til a crash? Well, this is what Boeing did. Rather than design a new plane to compete with Airbus, Boeing cheaped out and remade the 737, a decades old airframe that was never intended for this use. I mean at some point you’ve got to start with a clean sheet of paper, which is what Airbus did.

There’s no clean sheet of paper at the major labels. They’re committing the same crime from the turn of the century, believing if they can just get a handle on distribution, they can win. Yes, don’t pay those with de minimis streams and pay their stars a bonus. But that’s old thinking. Distribution has been flattened, everyone can get their wares in front of the public, the question is how do you make the public interested?

Well, the moribund labels couldn’t figure this out, so just like with Napster, the public took the great step forward, with TikTok. And the irony is those trying to break on TikTok are just the opposite of Lucian Grainge and the insiders complaining about payments. They’re doing it for free, often on a lark, pure inspiration, like the Beatles, et al. It’s about the creativity, and the majors haven’t been able to play that game in decades.

Yes, online creators are smart. They know it’s an attention economy. And to make it you’ve got to create 24/7 and there’s no guarantee of success. These are not the people complaining about streaming payments, those are people inured to the old system. They bought all the equipment, they might have even taken lessons. They saved up to record in a good room with a good producer and they think dividends should be paid when the game they’re playing no longer even exists.

In a world where we don’t even read the same news, what are the odds we’re going to listen to the same music? NIL!

But no one will own this. Not the musicians, the labels or the media. This would require vision, and there’s no vision involved, no planning for the future, no career outlook. Let’s just keep doing it the old way and expect it to be a success.

Want to succeed? You’re going to have to be different. If you’re a voice only, like on the TV competition shows, you’re doomed. The most important thing, as it has always been in art, is conception. The idea. To do what others have done is a fool’s errand. Who cares if you can sing, play and dance. Those people are a dime a dozen. Can you wow us with a different idea?

We don’t need your music. We don’t need anybody’s music. We need air, food and shelter, but we don’t need music. People might like music, but it is their choice whether to listen. Unfortunately, scrolling TikTok is individuated and interesting in a way programmatic radio with commercials is not. We live in an on demand, personalized culture and to ignore this is to be fumbling blind.

How come the influencers have it right and the musicians have it so wrong?

The influencers know you must be new and different and build a core audience and feed it each and every day. And if you’re lucky, you might make a living. And the day you stop creating is the day you stop earning.

Furthermore, not every influencer believes they’re entitled to a living wage. They play and adjust their wares to gain traction. And if they don’t get it, they stop. But I keep hearing from “musicians” doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different response.

If you’re not a good singer… Don’t tell me about Bob Dylan, he’s the greatest lyricist of all time!

You’ve got to have the chops, desire is not enough.

But desire is important, very important. But not as important as inspiration. And if you’re truly inspired and execute you might be able to gain an audience that keeps you alive.

Depressing?

That’s the game we’re all playing. Not to reach everybody, but enough people to stay alive. Why should it be any different in music?