Don’t confuse consumption with reach.

In other words, today’s metrics, which are really yesterday’s metrics, don’t give an accurate picture of what is happening in the landscape, they don’t indicate how big an act is, rather how many times one person listened to one song.

Think about that. In the pre-internet days of scarcity it was all about getting on a platform with reach. Radio was number one for music. How many people were actually listening to a radio station when your record was played? And if it was played in the middle of the night, the so-called “lunar rotation,” you might be able to use that number to manipulate the chart but it didn’t indicate you had any real listeners. In other words, how many people were listening to the number one station in the middle of the night?

And then there was television. Too expensive for record companies to advertise. But the Fortune 500 and more… This is how they reached the most people. Their commercials were blasted to many, how many truly cared, how many bought the product?

But commercials didn’t pay dividends, i.e. direct cash. Whereas radio did and still does. Spin it and there are performing royalties paid on the song. And outside the U.S., there’s a payment on the recording as well.

But today? The broad to many? That paradigm is out the window, now it’s all direct to one.

Think about that… Seen any banner ads recently? Like me you probably have an ad-blocker installed on your browser. The truth is banner ads have been proven to be ineffective. In a one to one world, the one to many is easily ignored, just like people started skipping commercials on broadcast TV, whether it be via flipping the channels or recording on a VCR or a digital device.

Broadcast and basic cable TV still have ads and still reach people, but their audiences have shrunk to the point where they reach very few of the target audience. In other words, if you want to reach the under twenty age group, spending on network TV ads is like burning money, because that demo doesn’t consume that way.

Ditto radio.

We live in a disinformation age. Everyone’s a winner, everyone has gigantic impact, nothing dies, everything lives on, like terrestrial radio.

When you find the person under twenty five still listening to terrestrial music radio let me know, because I haven’t found them yet. And I ask this demo whenever I encounter them.

Meanwhile, this is the number one way traditional record labels promote records. Think about that. I mean there is a radio business, but its reach is so insignificant as to not be a focus of the younger purveyors. They want to make it on TikTok, where the audience is.

In other words, big f*cking deal you’re number one at terrestrial radio. Especially if it’s in some niche format. Can you sell any tickets? Probably not, because very few people are listening to the music!

But let’s not punch a hole in the balloon, the industries, both record and broadcasting, don’t like it! They live in an ancient bubble, in denial, just like Biden. They cherry-pick their statistics, because the real ones are scary.

Like the Spotify Top 50. That’s about consumption. Pure and simple. Whether someone listened or not. If you’re a fan and are not listening, it doesn’t make any difference. And, of course, it’s not only Spotify, but Apple, Amazon and YouTube and…

In order to make money, people have to consume.

But that’s not the only way to make money today. Even though oldsters and wannabes can’t stop bitching how the game is rigged against them. I ask you, in what other world do you get paid if people don’t consume?

So, we’re told the Spotify Top 50 is the main metric. Yes, there’s a manipulated Luminate chart, factoring in vinyl and even downloads, but unless they’re boasting of some success, everybody at the record company looks to Spotify, because not only does it have the most market share, that’s where active listeners are. In other words, you might get paid more per stream on Apple, but that just means fewer people are listening.

But math was rarely a musician’s strong suit.

So in the old days you broadcasted widely in order to get people to buy the music. Broadcasting was the number one way most people consumed. But that’s no longer the case. Most people pick and choose what they want to listen to. Spotify tells us that. And active users barely employ playlists. Playlists are today’s equivalent of Muzak, background music, but since occasionally a playlisted track/act breaks out, we get all this focus on playlisting when it’s worth very little.

But assuming your music is listened to…

That could be the same cadre of people streaming 24/7.

Let me put it another way. Phish plays arenas, goes on tour and sells out consistently. How big is Phish? TINY! That’s not a put-down, just perspective. The band has no reach, it’s got a hard core supporting them, and that’s just fine, but don’t let the grosses misinform you.

Having said that, you can be in the Spotify Top 50 and not be able to sell out a club. You’re hot in a narrow world. That’s right, the Spotify Top 50 is niche. Think about that. The number one way people consume the most music is a gnat on the ass of the music world.

But don’t go too far in the other direction. With nearly a hundred categories, winning a Grammy means almost nothing either. Not even at the top of the heap, the big awards anymore. There used to a bump, sales, but that’s history. The audience is too sophisticated, they already know the hits. As for those in categories way down the list… They get a Grammy even though in many cases they’re lucky if a few thousand people even listened to their music. That’s right, Grammys today are the equivalent of giving every kid a sports trophy. They’re neither indicative of talent nor achievement.

But that’s the way our whole music world has gone.

We keep being told the acts in the Spotify Top 50 are superstars. But most people, MOST PEOPLE, have never even heard these tracks. Think about that, in the old days of terrestrial radio you winced when you heard the same song you hated over and over again, but there were no options, there were very few stations that played the kind of music you liked.

But today?

You have a cornucopia of options.

But the music industry has been fighting this ever since Napster.

You can’t break out the single from the album. Remember that fight? You don’t go against what the people want, they didn’t want the dreck that surrounded the hit.

The consumer is in control today.

And you need an audience, that consumes your music, but that does not mean you have any reach.

Another way performers used to gain reach was being the opening act for a headliner who sold a great number of tickets. This worked in the sixties, into the seventies when the opening acts were chosen to align with the music of the star, but those days are through. Now, oftentimes it’s just about getting an act to play cheaply. And people don’t even arrive for the opening act, they don’t want anything they don’t want, and they’ve been burned too many times.

In other words, it’s hard to break through these days.

Which puts a further focus on the music itself. But still, if no one hears it, it doesn’t matter how good it may be.

First and foremost there should be no restrictions on your music, absolutely none. Don’t complain about streaming sites… Your music must be absolutely everywhere, so if someone gets a hankering, they can find it with almost no friction. You want to make it easy.

But how do you gain reach?

First and foremost you motivate your fans. Everything is bottom up instead of top down these days. Stop swinging for the fences, gain a hard core fan base and if they can’t spread the word…you won’t spread. One thing about the aforementioned Phish fans, they inundate my inbox, Phishheads e-mail me constantly. The problem is when most people check out Phish’s music…they don’t become fans. Which is fine, Phish does very well, but don’t equate their success with REACH!

So how many people are really listening to Taylor Swift. Or Morgan Wallen. Or even the Weeknd.

Fewer than ever before in history. When it comes to hit acts. They might have big footprints, but their territory is defined, their reach is nowhere near as great as the consumption statistics imply, especially considering that avid Swift and Phish fans stream the music ad infinitum. One person could stream a band all day long. That’s very different from a thousand people streaming a song once, that’s reach.

Presently there is no chart that quantifies reach.

Advertising agencies specialize in this. Ratings companies. But we don’t have that for music, all we’ve got is radio ratings, which mean less than ever before.

But you need to get out of the bubble and gain perspective, see the context. If you can sell out your high school auditorium, kudos. But can you sell out any other high school auditorium? But unlike in the old days, you can record cheaply and put your music online. However, there’s so much online that yours won’t stand out unless people pull it.

In other words, casual listens only work on social media. That’s where the target audience discovers new music. How do you beat the system? No one has been able to figure this out. And even if you serve a video to many, that doesn’t mean they won’t skip over it.

That’s the truth, that’s reality, but they keep telling us the Spotify Top 50 is the be all and end all. But it’s not. It’s one metric, of consumption. And it is not known by the public if it’s avid fans, like those of K-pop, or casual fans, i.e. many listening fewer times.

Once again, you want to be everywhere. But also you must step up to bat constantly. Put out new music, have new campaigns. Don’t overthink it, just do. People don’t remember the failures anymore, there are too many, get back in the game.

This is the exact opposite of the old world where an album came out every three or four years, with singles dribbled out over that interim.

If you’re not a label/act, if you’re on the outside, there is no metric that tells us about music reach. We don’t know how big you are or not. The oldsters will cite the old metrics, but they’re outdated, they’re useless.

What we’ve got is the blind, the industry, leading those who don’t care. It’s a veritable circle jerk I tell you. The industry keeps trumpeting figures but we just don’t know how big these acts are anymore. And there’s mindshare and consumption. You may know about an act in the Spotify Top 50, but do you want to listen to it?

It was easy in the eighties. All you had to do was get your video on MTV.

But it’s never been harder in the modern recording era to reach people.

And rather than admit it, we’ve got a whole industry denying it.

The world is gonna flip I tell you, it can’t go on like this forever, a limited number of acts pushed down the throat of a public that doesn’t care. All that publicity works against you. It alienates even those who might have been casually interested.

In other words, mania means little, the music means more. And more music is consumed by more people than ever before.

But how many people really?

We have no idea.

Tune in Saturday July 6th to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz

The smooth frontman of Matchbox Twenty.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/rob-thomas/id1316200737?i=1000661134169

 

 

 

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast

1

“And sooner or later

Everybody’s kingdom must end”

Elton John had already cut an album that wasn’t even released in the U.S. Despite the Troubadour hoopla, most people first became aware of Elton on the radio, with “Your Song,” another ballad by a pop star.

Only it wasn’t. Not only was “Your Song” a step above, far from evanescent, a track that hit you in a different way from the rest of the hit parade, it wasn’t really representative of who Elton was, or didn’t show his suit of many colors, shall we say.

Now conventional wisdom at the time was that “Tumbleweed Connection,” released shortly after the American debut, the eponymous “Elton John,” was superior. And I felt the same until the release of the CD.

“Tumbleweed Connection” didn’t have a hit single, but it had the studio version of the live showstopper “Burn Down the Mission.” And Spooky Tooth covered “Son of Your Father,” and Rod Stewart did an even better version of “Country Comfort” on his true American breakthrough, “Gasoline Alley,” whereupon Rod the Mod gained believers, who were ready to spread the word when “Every Picture Tells a Story” was released.

As for the rest of the album, for a long time my favorite Elton number was the second side opener, “Where to Now St. Peter,” I’d play it every day when I got back from skiing at the Middlebury Snow Bowl, and there is the exquisite “Come Down in Time,” never mind the charming yet insistent “Amoreena” and the floating down the river feel of “My Father’s Gun.”

But “Tumbleweed Connection” sounded different from “Elton John.” And I didn’t truly realize this until the CD was released.

Unlike a lot of albums, the initial Elton John CDs sounded great. And I played them a lot. And being able to cherry-pick and repeat tracks, I got beyond hooked on “Sixty Years On” and “The King Must Die.”

Now my favorite cut initially was “Take Me to the Pilot,” which never got the respect it deserved. This showed that Elton was not just the crooner of “Your Song.” You only had to hear “Take Me to the Pilot” once to get it, and when you listened to it it brightened your mood.

But now it was the opener and closer of side two that had my attention, twenty five years later.

“Sixty Years On” is eerie. Magnificent. The kind of haunting track that built the reputation of rock music. It was far from one dimensional. Rock was a big tent that allowed experimentation, which is why you could hear Jethro Tull, Yes and Elton on the same radio station, never mind Led Zeppelin.

As for who’ll walk me down to church when I’m sixty years of age, the most amazing thing, the spookiest thing, is I’m older than that now.

And as big as Elton was, he became even bigger. Many listeners believe “Goodbye Yellow Brick Road” is the best, but it’s not. And let’s be sure to mention “Captain Fantastic,” but that first American album was cut when Elton was nobody, when he had something to prove. And you can hear it. And it sounds not like it was cut in a studio, but a church.

“Caesar’s had your troubles

Everybody’s kingdom must end

And I’m so afraid your courtiers

Cannot be called best friends”

You can’t do it alone, you can never do it alone. We live in a society. Those billionaires would not be if the public didn’t buy their products. And there’s a story in today’s “New York Times” how Tesla’s sales are off because the left-leaning acolytes who purchased the cars are now looking elsewhere: https://rb.gy/xuyxcm In other words, it’s a two way street. Even if you’re a dictator, that does not mean you’re safe, ever heard of a revolution? That’s what happens when you push too far, when you abuse the public.

Everybody’s kingdom ends. No one lives forever, no one rules forever, even though many think they will. They serve at the mercy of the public, even though it may not seem that way. But even more they serve the board, their constituents, the elected officials.

You may pack the board with your cronies, but good luck once things go wrong. You may get a proxy fight, you must always look over your shoulder, you’ve got to sleep with one eye open. Rust never sleeps and neither do your detractors, the Apostles even plotted against Jesus.

2

“And sooner or later

Everybody’s kingdom must end”

What they’ve been telling us is not true. That it’s Biden’s decision whether to continue to run for President or not. He not only serves at the will of the people, but the Democratic Party, which is now turning against him.

That’s today’s news. Gotta say, we haven’t had this momentary excitement since Napster. Or at least I haven’t been refreshing the news on the internet this constantly since Napster. But now there are even more sites. I’m looking for stories, I’m trying to take the temperature. Exactly what is going on?

It’s one thing to have a belief, to pontificate, but it’s another thing to know which way the wind blows.

Today is the beginning of the end. Because elected Democratic officials are breaking rank. They’re speaking publicly, Nancy Pelosi just said on MSNBC that Joe Biden’s mental status is a “legitimate question.”

And then there’s the slew of news on Axios:

Four hours ago:

“‘Freaking the f*** out.’ Turmoil in the White House over Biden”: https://t.ly/ToQ0K

And posted at the same time:

“Biden faces growing revolt from Democrats in Congress”: https://t.ly/8fJwO

Within this article it was stated that Sheldon Whitehouse had broken ranks. And Peter Welch too. Both elected Democrats.

And then just twenty five minutes ago: 

“Scoop: Inside House Democrats’ anti-Biden vent session”: https://t.ly/9wJ3H

But it wasn’t only Axios, the “Wall Street Journal”:

“Biden Campaign Tries to Calm Democratic Donors, Lawmakers as Criticism Mounts – Rep. Lloyd Doggett calls on president to leave race, while other Democrats urge him to take hard look at his future”: https://t.ly/OPz2C

That’s right, another elected Democrat has come out of the closet, broken ranks, it’s not quite a tsunami, but it’s a very different situation than it was over the weekend.

And the “New York Times” came out with a double-barreled shotgun:

“Biden’s Lapses Are Said to Be Increasingly Common and Worrisome – People who have spent time with President Biden over the last few months or so said the lapses appear to have grown more frequent, more pronounced and, after Thursday’s debate, more worrisome.”: https://rb.gy/vjmoow

And the piece-de-resistance:

“Democrats Go Public With Panic About Biden Amid Fears of an Electoral Debacle – After days of quiet hand-wringing, a few Democrats went public with their concerns about the president, worried not only about his chances but also the party’s ability to hold the Senate and win the House.”: https://rb.gy/76piyi

Never mind Biden’s campaign alienating Democrats by calling those agitating for Biden to drop out as “the bedwetting brigade,” as out of touch and offensive as Hillary Clinton labeling citizens “deplorables.”

3

I’d rather write about music. Politics is not my passion. Art and skiing are. But I’ve been distracted by the maelstrom, in addition there’s so much at stake.

Then again, Elton John appealed to everybody without even trying. He didn’t make music for a small subset of listeners. There was melody, choruses, and in addition to being able to write and play Elton could sing, prodigiously.

But the stars had to align for him to reach people, to have commercial success. It took a team, and talk to any label, they don’t want to work with a**holes. It’s not as simple as delivering a great record.

But Elton did.

It ain’t easy for Elton to crack the Spotify Top 50 these days, then again he’s one of the few classic rockers able to do this. Has Elton lost his touch, or is the game unrecognizable. Nepo-baby Gracie Abrams has been the beneficiary of umpteen reams of hype, but did you listen to her voice? This is not Elton John. As for great lyrics and great delivery, Joni Mitchell aced it in the vocal department too. And her music is still sitting there online for youngsters to discover and listen to.

There comes a time when it ends for everybody. And now it’s Biden’s time to go. And since he wouldn’t leave of his own volition, he’s being pushed. And once a couple of people break ranks, the dam crumbles, and everybody else does.

It’s kind of like seeing an act that can’t sing anymore. Are you going to go again?

Even Bob Dylan. He’s got fans just like those of Biden who say how great his shows are. But his voice has deteriorated and he rearranges the songs to the degree that you don’t know what they are, even if you know the recordings by heart. Some people still go, but most are not interested, especially if you’ve seen him in the last thirty years, once is enough.

We vote every day in the music business. By choosing to stream, by choosing to purchase a ticket. But we only get to vote for president every four years. And we depend upon our proxies, the parties and the elected officials, to vet and put forth the best candidates. And you can’t hide failings, you can only obfuscate for so long. And then the truth comes out.

The truth was revealed Thursday night.

The king is dead.

Long live the king.

Spotify: https://rb.gy/h9budq

YouTube: https://rb.gy/8j5fq2