My fingers are tingling a bit. You see I stayed out too long skiing at Elk Camp yesterday with Chris and Barbara Jones.

I met Barbara on the lift at Snowmass. What, was it 1998? And then she and Chris invited me to their annual Halloween party, in West L.A. I might have been the last to leave, I had so much fun hanging with the people!

That’s what Aspen’s about, the people. Most of my social life is based around the people I’ve met in Aspen. Because the conference isn’t like the usual music business clusterfuck. There are no bands, no hype. It’s about issues. Discussions. Reality. Like the conversation I had with Frank Riley on the bus to Snowmass this morning.

Frank is Wilco’s agent. He’s been Jeff Tweedy’s agent for fifteen years. Ever since the advent of Uncle Tupelo. Did Tweedy go through bad times? Never mind rehab, it’s tough keeping a band alive. But if you believe, you don’t give up.

Tickets for Wilco’s tour just went on sale. It went clean immediately. That’s what fifteen years worth of dedication will buy you.

How did we get to a non-singing J. Lo? Yup, Vince told that story on Thursday afternoon, Tommy Mottola chewing him out for letting her sing on Letterman. She’s not SUPPOSED to sing, it’s all about image!

But today a $400,000 video won’t buy you much. All the old nineties tools…you can employ them, but you come up empty-handed. It’s a new music business now. It’s about bands and fans. It’s about relationships. That’s what the Web offers. All those assholes who lost their jobs running labels who said that no act ever broke on the Internet just don’t understand that THEIR kind of act hasn’t broken on the Net, a ubiquitous superstar…but acts are breaking. Rather, they’re building. Growing. Into sustainable entities. And it takes A LONG FUCKING TIME!

Invest in your act. Learn how to play your instrument. Connect with your fans. Put tons of images and photos on your Website. Don’t give up to go to law school. There are NO OPTIONS if you want to make it in the music business.

The whiners are gone. The easy money is history. Only the lifers remain, the people who NEED to be in the music business. And they’re working with acts with the same passion they possess.

And that’s what it’s about, PASSION! Hearing that record and needing not to buy it on iTunes, but STEAL IT, because you just don’t have enough money to feed your music addiction.

The old players have got it all wrong. It’s not about a walled garden, charging a fortune for admission. It’s a matter of connecting with people, making music that they want to hear forever. They’ll give you all the money they’ve got. The most passionate downloaders are the most passionate concertgoers, they’ll even buy the CD to hear the music of their favorite bands in a PRISTINE FASHION! But they want the privilege of being able to surf and find new acts. They’re always in search of greatness. They’re fed up with the pabulum that’s been fed to them by the media manipulators.

To tell you the truth, I haven’t loved anything Wilco has done as much as 1996’s "Being There". But the thirtysomethings, they testify to me about the band, they believe in the band.

As for their Volkswagen deal… Fucked up. Because it didn’t garner one more fan. It’s not about impressions, bands are sold by word of mouth, one fan to the next.

We don’t want casual users. We’re leaving the casual users behind. It’s too much effort to reinvent the wheel every time. That’s why Tommy Mottola lost his job. The return on investment was no longer any good. The bands had evanescent careers and nobody wanted their records when they were done.

But they still want Springsteen. And they still want all the other classic rock acts on Columbia. And Warner too. Isn’t that what the Led Zeppelin hysteria was ABOUT?

I didn’t learn about Zeppelin on television. It was the buzz.

And you can no longer manufacture buzz. Buzz has got to be real. Because there are people out to bust you for your shenanigans, and most don’t have time to pay attention anyway.

But if people find something good, they’ll give it ALL their attention.

And for the last four days, I’ve given AspenLive all my attention. It’s the highlight of my year. Tomorrow, when I’m gone, I’ll feel the emptiness.

That glow from the show? That high you had for twenty four hours? That’s what cemented your fandom. It had nothing to do with the backdrops, the special effects, but the vibe, the music.

The music is king once again. You don’t have to look good, you just have to play well and have something to say.

Will vapid pop stars continue to be flogged? OF COURSE! But there will be fewer and fewer, because it’s almost impossible to make any dough doing that anymore. You need a 360 deal and advertisements and movies… It’s damn hard.

But if you make one great record, and you’re in it for the long haul, and you can wait for the virus to spread, you can play music for the rest of your life. You may not own a Rolls. Your mother’s friends might not know who you are. But when you hit the stage, you’re going to hear a roar of appreciation that will put a grin on your face just like when your first grade teacher gave you a compliment. You’re gonna feel like life’s worth living. Because you know what you mean to these people. You’re part of their lives. You help them get through. You have a RELATIONSHIP!

No relationship, no future.

Fuck branding, fuck sponsorship, fuck placement. Focus on music. Great music finds its own way.

You really missed it. We just had a presentation from the CEO of Major League Baseball. I’d tell you what he had to say, but when his speech was over, and he was hipped to the fact that I’m a "reporter", he insisted the whole affair be off the record. My understanding is people usually say something is off the record BEFORE they speak, but hey, the only person I’ve got to write about is myself, so I’m abiding by his wishes.

It’s just that we had THE guy just after the Mitchell Report was released! That’s what Jim Lewi specializes in, getting the heavy hitters just before they blow up. Most famously Malcolm Gladwell, Michael Moore and Seth Godin. I know you’ve read the "Tipping Point", but be sure to catch up with Seth Godin every day on his blog, sethgodin.com. Click his head to read his musings. This is the guy who came up with "permission marketing", he’s the guru, you should know what he has to say.

Meanwhile, on the bus to Snowmass this morning, and it was a great powder day, we rode with the manager and agent of Corey Smith.

Do you know who Corey Smith is?

That’s just the point. Either you’re a fan or you’re out of the loop. Corey isn’t playing for the masses, he’s growing his business organically. He’s playing 260 dates a year, forty percent are selling out, and the tickets are CHEAP! They say he’s James Taylor and Jimmy Buffett combined. Alcohol and good times. His most famous numbers have never been released commercially, you’ve got to STEAL THEM! But at the gig, everybody knows every word.

Have you seen Buffett? I don’t care what you think about the guy’s music, and other than that stunting Nashville album, he hasn’t had a hit in years, but live he delivers. He sells out, everybody has a good time, they buy a ton of merch. As Letterman says about Oprah, Jimmy’s got ALL the money!

So, should you focus on a hit, or a career?

Meanwhile, they’re LOWERING the prices of Corey Smith tickets. If you buy them in advance, through MusicToday, they’re TWELVE BUCKS! They do their best not to play TicketMaster buildings. You’re usually paying fifteen bucks. No service charge. Going isn’t buying a Springsteen ticket in December for a gig in July. It can be a last minute thing. You can bring your friends along. You can even PAY FOR THEM!

This is the new music business.

All those acts that grew organically in the late sixties and seventies, the ones with the different kind of music, like Jethro Tull? They can grow again. You don’t have to sound like everybody else. Don’t play to the gatekeepers, play to your FANS!

Meanwhile, had dinner with Michael McDonald last night. Not only does he manage John Mayer and others, he’s a partner in ATO. They’re releasing the Radiohead album. Do you want to make a deal with a major, for their theoretical infrastructure, or sell to your core and make eight bucks a record? That’s the new game. Instead of selling your soul to reach everybody, concentrate on your base, growing your base, organically. There’s plenty of money in the music business today. Just stop swinging for the fences. A bunt gets you on first too.

I wish Doug Morris were here to listen to this guy. He would have learned how it really is, as opposed to how he wants it to be.

The old model is market the hell out of diminishing quality. Whereas in the Net era, you focus on quality, marketing is secondary.

Ian told a great story. He went to a teen leadership conference. There were in excess of two hundred kids there. He asked them how many had seen "Lazy Sunday". Every single kid raised his hand. Every single one. How many had seen the original broadcast, on SNL? Almost none. How many had seen "Superman", the blockbuster being hyped at the same time? Fewer than ten. Why had everybody seen "Lazy Sunday"? Because it was FUNNY!

And that tells you almost all you need to know about today’s media world. Kids are only interested in quality, and they’re going to consume it when they want to, not on your schedule.

Ian Rogers runs Yahoo Music. He used to try to play by the rules. But the rules didn’t work. The Yahoo subscription service? A couple of hundred thousand customers. Whereas Yahoo gets four hundred million surfers a month. Ian asked, do you want to monetize the couple of hundred thousand or the four hundred million? Ask yourself.

Greg Latterman said he was flipped out, that kids thought music had no value.

Ian said AU CONTRAIRE! Music has TONS of value. But the record companies always make the price too high. iMeem can’t make money at a penny a play. But he’ll make a fortune at half that price.

Who’s gonna take that deal? Marty Bandier? Doug Morris? Who’s going to venture into the new world and make it work?

Meanwhile, iMeem, now that it’s streaming music, makes you register. Stop with the roadblocks. I don’t want a page, I don’t want to be forced to be a member of your stinking club. Let ME decide if I want in.

We had a good time mixing it up about the future of the music business. Vince remarked that ten years ago, we were all complaining about not being able to get on the radio. Now, no one talks about radio, not those in the new world, not those here, not those in the business of developing acts. Radio’s for dinosaurs.

And the major labels… They’ve cut back so far they’re not in attendance.

And I’m thinking that the major labels are just going to continue to sink. Music is gonna be akin to Google. The search is free, but they make money when you click on ads. Musicians will use computer tools to create their works, which will be distributed on the Web. The way the big boys are going, the music will be free. But, the fans of QUALITY STUFF will give the acts ALL their money.

Ian’s for open standards.

The labels are for scarcity.

The days of scarcity are done. DRM is done. If you’re not thinking how to enable your fans, get them to spread the word on great music, you’re probably sitting in an ivory tower pissed that people aren’t paying twenty bucks a CD. You’re on your way to extinction. You need to go out, you need to spend money in order to survive. The labels have cut back so far, everybody in the business has cut back so far, that they’ve surrendered the future to newbies. If you were here, you would have learned this. But, don’t worry, just watch. As the new world emerges and you’re sidelined.

P.S. Ian said his seventeen year old comes home and never watches TV, she goes STRAIGHT TO THE COMPUTER! Shit, the writers are right. That’s where all the money’s gonna be. Must See TV? Thursday night? It’s gonna be WHENEVER YOU WANT IT TO BE! If you want to watch it at all.

When I was a teenager, my sister rushed home and got on the phone. The goal was to have your own line. Sure, a kid wants a cell for texting, but when you get home now, your house is silent. Your kid is on the computer. Everybody under twenty knows this, how come the oldsters don’t?

They’re selling Hall & Oates’ Christmas album at the pharmacy.

What do they say, all politics are local?  It still comes down to who you know.  John Oates lives in Aspen.  Therefore he gets special treatment.  You know the proprietor, he does a solid for you.  And since there were only three CDs on the counter, the other two unrecognizable Christmas discs, I’m sure Hall & Oates are selling a bunch.  Christmas albums are impulse items.  They’ll be the last CDs to evaporate.  Hell, you don’t want to download Santa…  (Then again, I downloaded "Let It Snow"…)

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Vince couldn’t stop raving about Zeppelin at dinner.

You’ve got to know Vince, every company he works for is the shit.  You should have heard him talk about Best Buy when he worked for their label!  Hell, their label might be gone, but Best Buy IS the shit.  At least compared to other big box electronics retailers.  I wouldn’t go to Circuit City.  Dingy.  Best Buy is bright, and even though they sell white goods, they’ve got seemingly all the TVs, and reasonable prices.  And how fucked up is it that a flat panel is more desirable than a stereo system?  God, in the seventies we had multi-thousand dollar stereos and went WITHOUT TVs.  We needed to get closer to the sound.  We needed to hear what the instruments sounded like.  We needed to FEEL the music.  You can’t feel the music on what passes for a stereo today, no wonder everybody’s listening on their iPod.

Meanwhile, I thought Vince was bragging about his iPhone, which I won’t buy, because of AT&T, which once again got horrific ratings in "Consumer Reports", but it turned out to it was an iPod Touch.  Which contained not only all his music, but pictures…of his baby, of his time in London…

You see Vince works for Getty Images.  And, unlike the record sphere, business is BOOMING!  It’s about licensing everybody for a little and aggregating the results.  Hell, Getty licensed Perez Hilton.  Others sue, they made a deal.

Vince will tell you anything, but he wouldn’t tell me about Getty’s moves in music (other than their involvement in Zeppelin’s O2 show).  Said he was under a nondisclosure agreement.  They bought Pump Audio…  This is a company that’s expanding, this is a company to watch.

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All the agents are talking shit about LiveNation.  Why are they moving their buyers around?  Some of the people are good, but they’re unfamiliar with business conditions in their new domains, and they don’t seem to know the developing acts.  And do they have to close the sheds because no one can fill them anymore?

Rap on the sheds was most buildings were ugly, bad experiences that people didn’t want to go to.  But the real issue seems to be they just can’t be filled, not without papering the house.  So, what’s LiveNation’s play now?

Promoters need to break acts.  You can’t count on record companies.  But too many promoters are used to selling tickets to what the labels built.

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The secondary market.  How about that organization in the U.K. wanting a piece of the secondary market?  What kind of bullshit is that?  Doesn’t the first sale doctrine apply, at least in the U.S?

Either raise the prices to market value, or figure out a way to get the tickets in the hands of the fans.  Hell, they did it for Zeppelin, you can do it for other acts.

But the most fascinating thing is the belief that the secondary market is indomitable, that it’s changed the business forever.  Did you see the pictures from the Spice Girls gig in Vegas?  The building was HALF FULL!  The story’s all over the Web.  Wait a minute here, didn’t the promoter talk about a very quick sell-out?

So punters are buying tickets to re-sell.  And they’re getting stuck.  It’s the dot com/day trader scenario all over again.  Superstar tickets will be scalped.  But it appears you can get a ticket to ANYTHING these days, so why pay the inflated price on the secondary market?  Hell, just go to the show and pick up the tickets for next to nothing!  If the promoter himself doesn’t paper the show…

Once again, the demand comes from the music.  And most acts fly under the radar these days.  No wonder LiveNation’s stock has tanked.  What NEXT?  Fuck signing Madonna, they’re going to have to BUILD NEW ACTS IN ORDER TO SURVIVE!

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Eventful

Had dinner with Holly, their marketing person (along with a bunch of agents, managers and even G. Scott, who runs the delicious Ryman and Peter Tempkins, who sells insurance for all these gigs).

Something is going on here.  You see they allow fans to build demand for gigs.  And then bands tour where people want to see them.  Better yet, they get sponsors to hold contests, where surfers create demand on a company’s site, and a tour is created based on what markets get the most hits.

Are you in business with Eventful?  You should be.  They’ll even share sponsorship money, even though you’re dying to be involved and would do it for free.

The labels came to them.  They created the service, bands started using it and word spread.  This is the modern era.  Create something great enough, and the people will come looking for YOU!

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Pali Research

Rich Greenfield is at it again, speaking truth to a business that functions like an ostrich.

End of year CD sales are tracking DOWN 22% compared to LAST year’s holiday season.

There were FIFTEEN albums that sold in excess of 100,000 the first week of December last year.  This year there were EIGHT!  And this trend has held for the last couple of weeks, approximately a fifty percent drop-off.  Furthermore, four of the eight selling in excess of 100,000 WEREN’T ON A MAJOR LABEL!

Sales have tanked even worse in the past few weeks than they have the rest of the year.  Including digital, they’re off in the mid-teens!

Do people not want the music?  Did everybody get an iPod and start STEALING the music?  Is it impossible to create demand?  Are things so bad that people only care about the acts of yore, like the Eagles and Garth Brooks?