It is important to study history, so one does not repeat the same mistakes. Don’t Guy Oseary, Arthur Fogel and Madge herself remember U2’s PopMart tour? The biggest, baddest band in the world, one beloved by Gen-X’ers everywhere (the true Gen-X, in its forties now, the one from Douglas Coupland’s novel), books stadiums and…DOESN’T SELL OUT!

Maybe the record was rushed to completion. Or maybe the fan base was aging and didn’t want to sit that far away.

Shit, stadium shows are for youngsters, and YOUNGSTERS DON’T WANT TO SEE MADONNA! Especially not at these prices.

Why take this risk? Either she plays to empty seats or you’ve got to give tickets away. In this Internet era, do you think everyone’s not going to KNOW?

They call it ARENA ROCK. Not Arena POP, or Arena DANCE! Blow it up even bigger, and IT’S GOT TO BE ROCK! It’s got to be big and ballsy, anthemic. Madonna might have brass balls, but her music DOES NOT! Rock has historically been the guarantee in arenas. It’s the ONLY guarantee in stadia. Why go against this? Why try to reinvent the wheel? Why take the risk?

To prove that Madonna is the biggest, baddest act on the planet.

Well, that’s certainly questionable, but that’s what she needs. For her ego.

Shit, even the Eagles don’t play stadiums. And they own the biggest selling album of ALL TIME! Their audience doesn’t want to go. And sit that far away. Do you really think fortysomething women, driving minivans, still carpooling their kids, want to get all dressed up to sit in the upper deck and eat hot dogs? Watching a miniature Madonna down below?

No fucking way. At least not until she admits she’s a has-been.

Oh, the album may be running up the chart, but people don’t want to hear "Hard Candy" live. Just like they didn’t want to hear Page Plant’s new material when those two toured. They eventually eviscerated almost all of it from their set and focused on Zeppelin tunes. The steady stream of people to the bathrooms and concessions made them feel less like superstars and more like…wannabes?

Madonna refuses to believe her time has passed, that she’s a has-been. Everybody inside knows she won’t go out with a greatest hits show. But that’s what you need to sell stadiums, that’s what you need to get oldsters to leave home and spend a fortune.

Maybe once. Maybe they’ll come to the train-wreck once. But they’ll stay home after that. And there’s no talk of this being Madonna’s RETIREMENT tour.

Who’s advising her? Madonna’s such an egomaniac, she won’t hire a real manager, someone familiar with the game of choosing the right building, of scaling, of ticket counts. She thinks it’s all about TV and radio, that they drive people into a frenzy where they HAVE to go to the show. Uh-uh. That was the eighties, the nineties, but not today’s music world. Money is made on the road. And the show’s got to be about the audience, not the performer. At least if you want people to come back at these inflated prices. You’ve got to DELIVER!

Maybe she’ll change the set list to drive ticket sales.

But you know the show can’t be good… SHE CAN BARELY SING!

She makes a deal with Live Nation and the stock she gets immediately tanks by half. She decides to play venues way too large for her. She needs the aforementioned Irving Azoff. But she won’t listen to him. Because Madonna knows EVERYTHING!

No one knows everything. Not even me. But I’ve got a feeling, this tour is a mistake.

As "Hits" continues to chronicle the downfall of the Warner Music Group, one must ask if major labels are even the story anymore.

So Warner’s numbers tanked. It’s not like this is a surprise. After all, CD sales have been going down, down, down for years, unrelentingly. Hell, Warner’s market share improved recently, and the numbers still went down. That begs the question, is a lot of a little even relevant?

We can dissect EMI and Sony BMG all day long, chronicling their problems. EMI has essentially turned into Chrysler, another private equity boondoggle by someone ignorant in the sphere who has now downsized the company beyond recognition. Sony BMG has got a street guy, Charlie Walk at Epic, who can promote but isn’t that good at signing, and a guru who’s never been successful running a label, even though he’s tried, Rick Rubin. Give BMG credit for bringing in a successful cheapskate, Barry Weiss. But it’s not like Jive’s been doing Backstreet Boys numbers recently. And there’s not a ton of innovation, just running on Timberlake fumes. That brings us to the big kahuna, Universal.

Universal has a dual strategy, diversification and get a check. It’s not like they’ve abandoned their traditional business, but even though they’ve got the largest market share, their sales are tanking too. So, they bought BMG’s publishing assets. And Sanctuary, giving them a tiny toehold in management. As for the company’s digital strategy, it’s not about vision, it’s about holding up innovators for payment. They’ll make a deal with anybody if you cut them a big enough check. There’s no real planning for the digital future, more extracting lunch money, protection cash from those who want to start new businesses. The deals are heinous, but you need their catalog to start.

Irving Azoff does not need Universal’s catalog to start.

Funnily enough, as we contemplate the marginalization of Clive Davis, the era he presided over has already died. Clive was about record company power. That’s been the mantra of the last fifteen years, if not two decades. The record company controls the act. Tells it what to record and if it will release. The record company is the tyrant, your nemesis. But now, through the efforts of Irving Azoff, the act is king once again. May not feel so, you don’t see Mo Ostin presiding over Warner Brothers, but that’s the way it is.

Irving is the best protector of talent in the rock era. He even eclipses Colonel Tom Parker. Parker made a lot of decisions based on self-interest, like not allowing Elvis to tour Europe for fear his own illegal alien status would be revealed. Irving likes money, he likes to win, but he does this by going to the mat for the artist. What Henley wants, he gets. And not only Henley, but Christina Aguilera. Even Jewel. You take a meeting with Irving, and he closes you. And he’s no patsy, if he thinks you’re your own worst enemy, that you’re not taking your business seriously, he fires you! Like J. Lo.

But it’s not only Irving, there’s Howard. Howard is the king of Live Nation. It’s his acts that fill those dying sheds. And LN pays dearly for them. Jimmy Buffett takes 110% of the gross. And Def Leppard has been the surprise success of the sheds.

But it’s not only Howard… There’s a cornucopia, a veritable plethora of managers over at Frontline. And they come with acts!

The big story this week wasn’t Warner’s anemic numbers, but Azoff’s formation of AGP, with Paul Geary and Jared Paul.

There’s something happening here, and it’s starting to become very clear. Irving Azoff has built a talent powerhouse. More powerful than any label. Which concert promoters are beholden to.

I’m not saying that an indie manager can’t make it. Can’t make good deals with promoters. I’m just saying that Irving has achieved critical mass. He has reached his goal. He dictates the terms. Others listen to him.

And his style benefits him. Those who don’t know him are aware of his reputation for lack of veracity. For tantrums. But what they don’t know is he’s charming. That he charms his supposed enemies as well as friends. That he gives off the vibe of everyone being in it together… At least until there are problems.

How big is Azoff’s power?

He sold interests to both Warner and TicketMaster… Neutralizing both, telling them they can ride his coattails into the future. Their businesses might be challenged, but they’ve got him in their corner, he’ll help them.

If you think Irving helps anybody but himself and his clients…

Then there’s the theoretical AEG/TicketMaster/Cablevision lockup. That’s Irving play. Assembling a challenger to LiveNation.

The question is, having amassed so much power, having done what Jeff Kwatinetz and Terry McBride were unable to do, despite all their bloviating in the press, what does Irving do next?

He’s got his own record company. The infrastructure built to sell Buffett albums and the relationship with Wal-Mart. He’ll use a major’s money to develop, but that’s it…

He’s smart enough not to go into competition with promoters. He built Universal Concerts and AEG, he knows the pitfalls, but Irving was bad as an owner. Remember Giant? Irving does best extracting money from others!

So what’s the play? Is it just managing this talent, or leveraging it in some way?

Eventually he’ll sell Frontline. Because someone will be stupid enough to write him a check, and he’s getting older every minute, and no one lives forever. But what now? What’s next?

It’s Irving’s world, we just play in it.

You could start your band from scratch, trying to build relationships in the industry, or make a deal with Irving and he’ll get you on all the awards shows, like Christina Aguilera. Or get you a gig on a TV show, like Jewel with "Nashville Star". Irving’s like the labels used to be… Too many people owe him. He’s got a symbiotic relationship with them. An ongoing relationship.

Can you get enough personal attention?

Certainly if you’re Henley. And no one works the phones like Irving. But if you want to call someone about your girlfriend, Irving’s not the one. Oh, he can speak that language, he just doesn’t have the time anymore.

So what’s your choice? Making a deal with Toyota or Volvo? Volvos are good cars, but Toyota gives you critical mass. R&D can be spread over many units. There are resources.

Stop watching the major labels. Start watching Irving. He controls the future of the music business. At least for now.

I spent some time listening to Sirius Left Of Center, channel 26. It’s much better than XM’s Ethel. I know, because I tried to continue to listen to Sirius at home, via my boom box, but the signal kept dropping out and I had to fire up Ethel. I was excited by Left Of Center, Ethel left me cold, made me hate all this music, maybe music in general. But what I heard on Left Of Center, if not inspiring, was at least intriguing.

I heard a buried treasure by Pearl Jam that almost had me reevaluating the band. And a good track by the Kills. Made me want to listen to the new My Morning Jacket album someone sent me, based on the song I heard, maybe it’s finally their time. But the track that truly caught my ear, that kept me listening to the station, was Santogold’s "L.E.S. Artistes".

Used to be I had to know every act, what they sounded like. But today there are just too many. And too many fall into the category of indie/white boy rock that makes me laugh when I listen to it

Stuff White People Like

So, these acts slide by me, I hear the names, but have no idea what the music sounds like. I assume the music sucks, because experimentation has told me so. But Santogold does not.

"L.E.S. Artistes" is kind of like Duffy’s "Mercy"…not a complete song. A riff, missing another crucial element. But like with the ultimately superior "Mercy", what is there grabs you, like a song from Rick Carroll’s KROQ.

Remember hearing ska music for the first time? Not the original stuff or the O.C. flavor, but the English version, from the turn of the decade, the seventies into the eighties? "L.E.S. Artistes" has got the same feel. It sounds like the artist means it. You pay attention from the very first note. It seems to exist outside the mainstream, the system. It seems to be played in a dark room, that both disorients and enraptures you. It’s hip, unlike what’s on Top Forty radio.

There’s a somewhat anthemic chorus… But what gets you is the vibe, the immediacy.

But, unlike decades ago, I’ve got no illusion Santogold’s other music is as good as "L.E.S. Artistes". I don’t expect a "Mirror In The Bathroom" on the same album as the English Beat’s cover of "Tears Of A Clown". I don’t expect her album to be as playable as the Specials’. Not because of what’s in the track, but because of the scene. All we usually get is the track, with no additional depth. And a listen to the other Santogold emphasis track, "Creator", proves the point, it leaves me cold.

But check out "L.E.S. Artistes". It’s got the urgency of a revolution. Like those involved don’t give a shit about anybody else, like they’re creating their own scene. You’re drawn in.

This is fresher than Duffy. This is not country, with the same instrumentation just different lyrics, this doesn’t sound quite like anything that’s come before. And that’s exactly why it registers. Risk is being taken!

Santogold – L.E.S. Artistes

(Don’t watch the video, except for an instant, to catch what Santogold looks like. Great music is made to be listened to, not seen. The visual cheapens the effect. Crank it up and listen.)

You mean he’s finally going to release his archival material?

We’ve been hearing about this since the seventies, how Neil Young is going to do this huge archival dump, ten albums…

But it never happened. And continues not to happen. Even though stories continue to circulate.

Now it appears to be for real. I don’t think he’s got the cojones to stand the guys at Sun up. To do this press conference and then punt, using his mystique as a cover.

Did you know that Neil Young was going to do these Blu-Ray discs?

I did. News started floating down through my filters yesterday. But I never got past the news. Because I figured the stuff would never come out, and how interesting is a press release anyway.

Then I got e-mail about a ten minute video from one of my readers. That made all the difference.

I waited until I had enough time, I just watched the video.

If you’re not a Neil Young fan, don’t click through. This is not for you. We’re in the era of narrowcasting. It’s fine if you don’t like Neil Young…but many do.

Fascinating if you do. You see history come alive.

And, you’ll hear Neil trash the CD… Even the DVD. And tell you to get a PlayStation.

Blu-Ray beat the competing format because of the PlayStation. Each and every PS3 comes with a Blu-Ray drive installed. Drove the price into the stratosphere and the console’s thunder was stolen by the cheaper and easier to use Wii. But, adoption rates have picked up. This is the Trojan horse. The PS3 is why Blu-Ray won.

And as of today, the PS3 is the Blu-Ray device to buy, because it’s updatable! Neil talks about updating via Java… A DVD never has to be finished. You can download additional content as it becomes available.

But the reason we all care is that Neil Young has a body of work. From the Springfield (and before!) to "After The Gold Rush" to "Rust Never Sleeps" all the way to "Greendale".

Today, as a result of MTV and now the Net, all people care about is the track. Forgo the hit, figure out how to penetrate a fan’s consciousness, to make him a fan of your career. That’s where the satisfaction and the remuneration truly reside.

Neil Young rocks JavaOne
(scroll down to watch the video)