Michael Shrieve was the drummer on the first five Santana albums, you know him from the Woodstock movie! Michael goes deep into all of those records, as well as his work with Stomu Yamashta, Automatic Man and more!

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/michael-shrieve/id1316200737?i=1000660419605

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6OiSmiGLE1P8x5CmwMY3Mg?si=Bqp60A7vRUSUSBuFO3MFwg

Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/22466be0-be99-4091-9638-1689294b2b35/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-michael-shrieve

iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1119-the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-30806836/episode/michael-shrieve-189697021/?cmp=web_share&embed=true

Are you a meme or are you a musician?

If you’re willing to do anything for attention is it working for you, or against you?

The bifurcation began with the split of AM and FM in the sixties. Stations could no longer simulcast on FM what they were broadcasting on AM. As a result we got underground FM radio and album rock. Which ruled until there was a consolidation and corporate rock and disco emerged. Why did disco emerge? Rock did not encompass all demos, all interests, all desires, and not only does nature abhor a vacuum, people want that which speaks to them.

Then music was in the doldrums until MTV created a monoculture in 1981, and that has been the paradigm the major labels and the major media have operated under ever since, even though it’s in the rearview mirror, has been for years.

In other words, mainstream music, Top Forty music, the Spotify Top 50, works for fewer listeners than ever before. This is what consolidation has wrought. Fewer major labels, fewer mainstream news outlets…

But the bucket has been leaking for decades. Now there are a zillion news sources, some accurate, some inaccurate, some way ahead of the mainstream, some completely delusional.

If you want to know about it first, you find out about it online. A news story has to work its way up to the major media. And the big outlets can’t cover everything, while many are consolidating. If you’re depending on the L.A. “Times” to know what is going on in the world, you don’t know much.

And the same thing is happening in music.

But all we’ve got is the tsunami of hype over the Spotify Top 50 when most of the listening, STATISTICALLY most of the listening, is going elsewhere.

And what is everybody’s desire?

To go viral. When they’re not complaining about making little money.

As with everything in life, don’t listen to the hubbub. It tends to be a very few with an agenda.

In other words, if you’re a musician, if you’re not playing the game, what are your odds of future success? GIGANTIC!

Let me be clear, only a very few acts will go on to stardom. That’s the way it’s always been. Only a few acts deserve said stardom and the public only has so much bandwidth. But more acts than ever can make a living making music, or at least have a revenue stream while they keep their day jobs (many acts in the so-called pre-internet heyday kept their day jobs even after they got deals and released a record).

But too many are inured to the old monoculture game, to their detriment.

The major labels are doing it all wrong, they need to employ the Netflix model. More and more product that doesn’t appeal to everybody, but to niches. The goal is to satisfy a niche so it doesn’t cancel a subscription. And sure, there’s no music subscription (other than distributors like Spotify, et al), but in truth a subscription in music is fandom. How can you bond with your audience to the point they’ll keep you alive, see your shows, buy your merch and spread the word.

You don’t want to do anything uncharacteristic. Your fans have a perception of you. Go against it at your peril. Wait for people to come to you, don’t sell out for quick success.

And stop trying to go viral. What we’ve found is viral is unpredictable, it can rarely be gamed. If you’re lucky you might do something that goes viral, but odds are you’ll never go viral in a way that makes you well-known overnight, like the Hawk Tuah girl. But how long is the Hawk Tuah girl’s fame going to last? Not through the summer. Not through July. Maybe not even through June!

And maybe you’ve got no idea who the Hawk Tuah girl is. If this is so, you’re a passive consumer. You come last in the music business food chain. But even more this proves how even if you go viral, you don’t reach everybody. It’s a fool’s errand, and it doesn’t last.

Like the work of the social media influencers. They’ve got to create each and every day, otherwise people move on. That is not the job of the musician.

I’m not saying you don’t have to release a steady stream of product, I’m not saying you don’t have to have an online presence…

Tom Rush has a Patreon wherein he does a live show every week, for about fifteen minutes, usually with another act, sometimes famous, sometimes not. And ten days ago he featured this guy Brendan Cleary. I’m jaded, but I know it when I hear it. This guy had a great voice, interesting lyrics and good changes. But almost no online presence, not even a website. I couldn’t easily check out more of his work, someone else was operating under the same name, I gave up. I don’t even know if the rest of his tunes are as good, I can’t spread the word. Don’t operate with one hand behind your back, don’t hate the internet so much that you stay off it.

So now is the time to follow your muse, to do something different. And odds are it will take a very long time to resonate with the public. Are you in it for the money or the music? Are you willing to sacrifice everything to make it? Marriage, kids, home ownership, straight career? If not, you should give up now, it’s just not worth it, it takes all of your effort with no fallback position to break through. And never forget, the audience is the ultimate arbiter, and you can’t make people listen to your music, no way.

In other words, music is evolving. Even though those in control of recordings keep telling you otherwise. Just like the major labels hit a slump before the advent of MTV. The major labels are bleeding market share to the independents, and without their catalogs they’d be ripe for disruption.

You are the story. A lucky press article here or there might help you, but promotion is nearly worthless. Like those articles in the mainstream media about people who just released a record. It’s akin to a billboard on the Sunset Strip in the sixties, might make you feel good, but it doesn’t move the needle.

The only thing that moves the needle these days is your music. Your job is to make it and get it heard. And getting it heard is the toughest job of all. And the way you get it heard is by having fans, not getting it playlisted. Many acts are playlisted, make money, and no one knows their name and they have no career. Playlisting is a sideshow. Don’t focus on that. How do you create a fan base and grow that? Stop thinking about the masses. What you’ve got to know is if you do something great, people will spread the word, because there’s very little great out there and everybody is looking for it.

Stop trying to game the system.

Start doing it your way.

Blow our minds musically. If we can’t hear it and be taken away, impressed, then it’s never going to work. No publicity effort can trump the music today, because there’s so much of it. If you’re not great, we’ve got a history of great at our fingertips.

And there is great out there, and in truth it is growing. But it is obscured by all the stories about hit music which means about as much as it did in the heyday of FM, even less.

The game has changed. Sure, read Don Passman’s book to learn the ropes, but that’s not as important as lessons and rehearsal. And great art is always about ideas. And great ideas without execution are worthless.

It’s damn difficult. There is no barrier to entry, you don’t need a license to make music. But if you NEED to make music, there’s a lot of opportunity today. But walk into the wilderness instead of the mainstream, which tends to rise and fall like a wave on a beach. You want to last.

1

He’s the first Gen-Z rock star.

Now what does that mean…

Traditionally, a rock star is someone on a pedestal, someone who you aspire to meet, someone better than you, an icon, a vaunted, untouchable genius.

That is not Noah Kahan. Noah Kahan is just like you and me. Well, to be more specific, he’s just like the youngsters who grew up digitally native, who live in the world of social media as opposed to deplore it. They know they will never lose touch with anybody they’ve ever met. They know there is no place off the grid. And that nobody is any better than anybody else.

Don’t mistake the hero worship of Olivia Rodrigo as a modern, Gen-Z paradigm. That’s the same as it ever was. Find someone you can anoint, push them ad infinitum in the media, create a tsunami of energy that reaches as many people as possible and then put forth a stage show that is not radically different from the heyday of MTV. It’s got to be slick, produced, because that’s what the audience wants, right?

Well, maybe it doesn’t.

Or maybe there’s an audience for that but it’s such a hard game to play. To the point where the major labels can’t even break a new act.

And along comes Noah Kahan, who is DIFFERENT!

He doesn’t look like his press photos, like his album covers. Noah Kahan is a dork sans charisma. And in truth very few people are cool, very few are magnetic, Gen-Z knows we are all in it together. So how do you stand out?

By being yourself. By looking inward. By owning your identity. By not trying to play the game, but inventing your own game.

Noah Kahan is selling radical honesty. When most acts are inherently dishonest. Their public persona is different from their private persona. There are layers of subterfuge, to make them exotic yet palatable to the masses.

Noah Kahan could come down from the stage and sit amongst the audience and there would be no brouhaha. No, scratch that, people would be excited, but my point is he’s no different from you and me. And that’s a radical change.

Which Gen-Z is wholly familiar with.

Call it influencer culture. Anybody can be a star. But you have to work for it. But that does not make you better than anybody else. It just makes you worthy of attention.

So Noah Kahan tried to play the game as proffered, but it didn’t work. But when Covid hit and he started speaking his inner truth, it resonated.

People haven’t been speaking their inner truth for decades.

Scratch that, the Spotify Top 50 is not based on inner truth. It’s mostly cartoons. Let me tell you about my fabulous life, don’t you wish you could hang with me? Hip-hop used to be the story of the streets, that was its draw, its power… But that was warped by expensive lifestyle videos in the late twentieth century, never mind abuse of women and the inclusion of old, offensive tropes that would not die.

As for pop music… It was even worse. It was always vain and vapid. That was its essence. Music blew up in the late sixties and seventies when there were two lanes, AM and FM. AM was for casual listeners, it was a big tent, the songs played to everyone, whereas FM was for those who cared, who were fans, who lived for the music, who ate up the words of acts that didn’t even seem to care about them, who were focused mainly on themselves.

Do you have problems?

Well, if you’re a man you’re probably going to say no. And if you’re white or wealthy you’re not entitled to them. I mean think of all the starving people in Africa!

Everyone is told to buck up and soldier on. But then why are so many of the best and the brightest committing suicide? Life is not only financially hard, but it’s emotionally hard.

Politics is unfathomable. You can’t believe in Biden, and if you’re attached to Trump you’re delusional.

The corporations rip you off.

You feel alone.

So where do you go? MUSIC!

That was the tunes’ traditional role. Not only an escape, but a soothing of the soul, an understanding. And that’s got nothing to do with brand extensions. A perfume won’t soothe your soul, it’s external, not internal.

People hunger to be understood, to know someone else gets them, and that’s the role Noah Kahan plays.

2

Now the first thing you’ll notice is all the fans singing along. Like an extra voice. It’s palpable, you can’t ignore it. The first time I heard/saw this was with Taylor Swift in the first decade of this century. You see she was speaking to her generation, they needed to own her music, not as in physically own it, but emotionally own it. Someone was speaking to THEM! The anxieties of being fifteen. Of being awkward and uncool. That was her power.

Swift abdicated this role when she stopped writing with Liz Rose and went pop. The focus shifted, it became about world domination, external as opposed to internal.

But Noah Kahan is all internal. He’s singing about his life. And he’s not settling scores, he’s revealing his anxieties, his depression… When he sings about living in Vermont with the same damn few people and nothing to do and being bored… I can identify with that, I’ve lived in Vermont, I’ve been where everybody knows your name, and it positively sucks.

And it’s not entertainment Kahan is looking for. But something that speaks to his soul. The basic building blocks of life. We all want to be seen. I ask you, when you listen to the Spotify Top 50 do you feel seen? Only if you’re someone with a track in the hit parade!

I could go through Noah’s show song by song, but the interesting thing is either you’re in or you’re out, either you’re a member of the tribe or you’re irrelevant. This also is the modern paradigm. It’s not about reaching everybody, but reaching those who care. If you do it right, there are enough who care to keep you alive.

And Kahan got lucky with “Stick Season.” This is a classic story, someone down and out, on the edge, digs down deep and tells their personal truth, which they believe only relates to them, and then they find out it’s universal.

Now there are acts that only guys go to see. Usually focused on playing, sometimes lyrics from science fiction. But everybody knows the real money comes when you get the girls, the women to attend.

And more than half of the audience was women Friday night. Not that there were no men. But women catch the lyrics first. You think that men lead, that they drive the culture, but it’s almost always women. Because they’re more sensitive, they’re not constantly thinking about where they are on the totem pole.

Women want to marry someone like Noah Kahan. With foibles, who is willing to speak about their troubles and listen to theirs. Sure, a movie star hunk is appealing, a traditional rock star is appealing, but deep inside you know you’re never going to fly on a private jet and when you get down to it, how much do you have in common?

Noah Kahan is solidly middle class. He didn’t fight his way up from the bottom, and he didn’t grow up so rich that he never had any worries.

He signed a record deal when he was eighteen, a dream, right?

Well, Kahan found himself alone in Los Angeles. Truly alone. Doing everything alone. Big man on paper, small man in real life. Have you ever been alone like this? I certainly have. Many people can’t tolerate this, which is why they never leave home, never risk, it’s just too daunting. But with no risk there’s no reward. And in truth, Gen-Z is risking every day. Everybody is a unique individual with a presence online. And what do their elders tell them? Put down the phone! Which would be like telling the teens of yore they couldn’t talk on the telephone. There’s an emotional generation gap between oldsters and youngsters.

3

So Noah Kahan has a crack band. And he can play pretty well himself.

As for his voice… It ain’t gonna win “American Idol” or “The Voice.” But his voice is perfect for getting his message across. And that’s what it’s all about. Music is not a competition. If you’re worried about Grammys you’ve got it wrong. You can’t quantify what truly resonates with the public, and if you’re successful, that does not mean someone else can’t be, this is not a zero sum game.

But what we end up with is tracks written by committee and recorded and produced by the usual suspects. Everybody is trying to be just like everybody else. Which is a death spiral. That’s why today’s music rings so hollow. There’s nothing there to see.

But what Noah Kahan is selling is different. You feel that he knows you. Or you know someone like him. He’s not so distant, not in the stratosphere, but here on Earth like the rest of us, one of the teeming masses.

Which leaves one optimistic.

The passion Friday night was akin to the passion of the heyday fifty and sixty years ago. But with a twist. In that Noah Kahan might have been on stage, but there was no gulf between you and him.

And I could cite songs. Do a business analysis of how his duets with famous people enhanced his career. There was some game-playing involved. But it all comes down to that one song, previewed online during Covid, “Stick Season.”

Which Kahan uploaded to TikTok, not because he was looking for virality, but because this is how Gen-Z communicates. And in truth it’s very hard to manipulate TikTok, if it was easy, it would be dominated by major label priorities, and it’s not.

“So I thought that if I piled something good on all my bad

That I could cancel out the darkness I inherited from dad”

All we hear from the oldsters is the young are overmedicated, that they need to get off the drugs and endure the ups and downs, they did.

Yeah, but how well did they do? And the world is a tougher place now. You’ve got the haves and have-nots, not everybody can afford a Rolex and a Mercedes-Benz.

“No, I am no longer funny ’cause I miss the way you laugh

You once called me forever now you still can’t call me back”

They don’t call you back. At least pre-Covid you might run into them at school. But now you’re home, isolated, alone.

“Oh that’ll have to do

My other half was you

I hope this pain’s just passing through

But I doubt it”

He’s resigned. Maybe there’s a flicker of hope. If you haven’t had this angst, when you were younger, when you endured your initial breakups, you married your first love or are alone and celibate. This is human nature. But all we’ve got is dancing queens speaking about fantasy lives.

That is not Noah Kahan.

4

Will we have more Noah Kahans?

We already do, but most are not musicians, they’re excoriated online influencers. Sure, some are shilling products for cash, but the essence is honesty, real life, and you’d know that if you were on TikTok, but you’re not, you’re superior, you know all about it, but you’ve never experienced it. Maybe you should go on and see the forty and fiftysomethings talking about their dating experiences. People are strange, but now it’s not Jim Morrison singing about them, but the hoi polloi testifying on social media.

The game is not hard, but it involves risk. And no one wants risk, everybody wants insurance, which is why so many Ivy League graduates go into finance.

And then in their spare time they listen to Noah Kahan. Because all they’ve got is their cash, their inner lives are empty, they need someone to speak to them.

You don’t have to listen to Noah Kahan, not many more people need to listen to Noah Kahan, he’s doing quite well, thank you.

And you might not even get it. Which is fine, when was it expected that everybody got everything?

And if you don’t get it you’re not a hater, you’re just into something different.

But if you were at the show Friday night you’d know that something is happening here.

And it’s exactly clear.

I don’t really care. I’m burned out on these gigantic catalog sales. But maybe this is important, maybe this isn’t just a banking deal, maybe Sony has insight that is not being acknowledged.

Bear with me here.

The bottom line is we are not minting new superstars. So the value of old superstars goes up! If everybody knows your name, in an era where that’s nearly impossible to accomplish, think of the value!

At Canadian Music Week Don Passman said he advises his clients not to sell. Most people regret it. But if it’s for estate planning…

But the dirty little secret is although Bryan May is 76, Roger Taylor is 74 and John Deacon is only 72! They could live for another three decades.

Or die tomorrow, but…

When it comes to money, the financiers are always smarter than you are, ALWAYS! This is their business. Running the numbers, making bets. Your business is making music. How many times have you gotten screwed in your career? If you haven’t been screwed, you’re not successful.

As for getting the money now… You’ve got a steady stream of income, what are you going to do with the cash? Put it in the bank and you’re LOSING money! Everything else is inherently risky, much more risky than the royalties of a superstar act.

And we’ve seen this movie over and over again. Michael Jackson beat Paul McCartney in a bidding war for Beatles copyrights and they ended up being worth more than ten times the purchase price. How about Colonel Parker selling Elvis’s catalog?

As for your advisors… It’s very hard to turn down a payday, it’s human nature. It takes a special kind of person to give up their commission on a big sale. So beware of people pushing you into selling.

But assuming you’re out, where does that leave the purchaser?

Let’s be clear, this Queen deal is not only the songs, like with Hipgnosis and the rest of the new publishing giants. Sony is buying EVERYTHING! And with total control of all the assets comes power. You can maximize the value.

Irving Azoff’s company buys the Beach Boys. Let me ask you, is the Beach Boys’ music ever going to evaporate? Not only is it steady, we’re just one revival away from a burst of notice and revenue. Could be a TikTok, a film usage, there’s a giant catalog of instantly catchy hits, the band is the sound of the summer, and nobody has ever come close. Song of the summer today? God, even Spotify now has a playlist, but odds are you haven’t heard most of the songs and don’t care, it seems the only people who truly do care are the press and the acts and their handlers who are on said list. The rest of us ignore it, if we’re even aware it exists.

But Bob Dylan? Just like we never got a new Beatles, we never got a new Bob Dylan. So buying the songs was a good idea. However Universal does not own the recordings.

Bruce Springsteen sold absolutely everything to Sony. I’ll posit that the Boss is less universal than Queen. He doesn’t even go clean everywhere. But “Born to Run” is an anthem. And when Bruce dies, he’ll become an even bigger icon, because we’ve never gotten a new Bruce and what Bruce represents is impossible to find in today’s marketplace. Honest musician, who can sing, write and play, who’s never sold out to the man who is singing from his heart about life in these United States. He’s one of a kind, like with Queen, he’s just one placement from ubiquity.

That’s what happened with Queen. “Wayne’s World.” Period.

Just like Journey and “The Sopranos.” Journey headlines stadiums without even the real singer of their hits! The hits have eclipsed the band! Think of the value there. And there wasn’t only one hit, but many.

But Queen is unique. From an era when that mattered, when me-too was anathema (in sound, not behavior). The band melded prog rock with straight rock without synthesizers and had hits as varied as not only
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” but “Crazy Little Thing Called Love” and “We Are the Champions” and “We Will Rock You.” The breadth alone gives the band gravitas.

In other words, Queen is selling too low. Sure, the band is getting the money now, but in a world of niches, everybody knows Queen. And as stated above, Queen has a unique identity.

Not everybody is forever, but there are many more that still own their rights. I mean if Queen is worth a billion, then the Eagles are worth at least two. Then again, over Henley’s dead body. By not maximizing the value of the catalogue, Henley and the Eagles have increased it! Proving once again, if you’re willing to leave money on the table, there are bigger paydays down the road.

Now supposedly Sony is going to maximize the asset, the virtual ABBA show has been bandied about as an example. That was an incredibly heavy investment. But if Queen is selling all those tickets with a fake lead singer and sans Deacon’s bass playing… Think of the demand!

The rich get richer and the poor struggle for recognition, never mind remuneration.

And maybe you’re not rich enough to maximize the value yourself. Which might argue for having a partner. But if you sell out completely and there’s a huge jump in revenue…your image, your legacy is burnished.

Some of these acts already have enough money. They’re very interested in lasting.

And think of the acts further down the totem pole. Get the right team involved and they can be much bigger than they are today. Because no one is minting new superstars! So the old stars become even BIGGER!

It goes really deep. Kids are turned on to the classics by their parents. By Disney. The rights holder doesn’t even have to do any marketing, it can just lay back and collect the cash. But work it just a bit… Hell, what was the value of Kate Bush before and after the use in “Stranger Things”?

The paradigm has shifted. Yes, it used to be that most acts’ value, their revenue, decreased over time. But today, in many cases it goes up! Because there’s no one else in their league.

Sure, advertisers have paid handsomely for catalog in the past, but now movies and streaming shows… They want to use tracks everybody knows, how many of those are there?

Sony could be sitting on a gold mine. That they bought cheaply.

Music is not tech. It doesn’t lose its value with new innovation, rather when done right it is unique, stands alone, and if not fresh, is emblematic of the times.

Furthermore, it all comes down to the song, it always comes down to the song. You can’t sing most of the Spotify Top 50, which means the odds of those songs lasting are low. It’s only when the public can sing along, with or without the record, when the melody and the chorus and the riff stick in their head, that the endless pot of gold is developed.

And they said Napster ruined the recorded music industry, that no one would pay for music again. EVERYONE is paying. Sure, you might get it for free on YouTube, but the rights holder is being paid. And you might listen for free but go to the show and buy merch and…

The future’s so bright I gotta wear shades!