What if no one was paying attention.

In today’s "New York Times", Bono opines that ISPs should monitor their traffic, that creators need to be compensated for the distribution of their works.  I’ve got no problem with the underlying concept, that artists should be paid.  Nor do I think that ISPs should necessarily get off scot-free.  But what’s most interesting to me is no one cares what Bono has to say.

Aged news.  That’s what the "Daily Show" called the "New York Times".  Reading today’s newspapers I got the curious feeling that I knew everything already.  As for those articles that extolled returning to the past, I’d debate them, but it would be pointless.  Oldsters are under the illusion that they can steer, that they can determine outcomes.  What we’ve learned so far in the twenty first century is we follow the public.  Rather than rant and rave at injustice, better to go online and try to figure out where it’s all going.

The problem with Bono’s precept is despite their protestations, the major labels no longer have a lock on distribution.  Their power is limited.  Most music is attached to no corporation, no one has power over the rights other than the creator.  And the creator is doing everything in his power to get his message out to potential fans.

It’s no longer the songwriter bitching at the publisher owned by the multinational that his songs are being stolen.  It’s now a college student, even a high school student, creating a song and instantly giving it away online, angling for some traction.

And getting a story about his production in the newspaper probably won’t help him.  Because his audience doesn’t read the newspaper!

There’s almost nothing to read in the L.A. "Times", truly, the paper’s so thin as to be a facsimile of a good Website, twenty four hours behind the times.  And the "New York Times" is so beholden to its style, and the movers and shakers of the New York scene, that it’s a debate amongst people who think they’ve got power but don’t.

Old media is killing itself.  By insisting the way it’s always been done is the way it should be.  That’s the lesson that eludes Bono.  It’s not about protecting the old media monopolies, it’s about them adjusting to the new landscape, in order to survive.  What’s a bigger threat, the ability to make an HD movie at home or theft on the Web?  I’d say the former.  Because we’ve learned in the twenty first century that he who grows up outside the system, a system that has very few opportunities for entry, will end up wanting to play by himself.  MySpace sold out to Fox and is almost dead.  Facebook is independent and thriving.  The behemoth most feared is Google, not Viacom.

And old media and old people don’t understand that we no longer pay attention to that which does not interest us.  What Randy Phillips and the L.A. "Times" don’t understand is we don’t have to listen to "Empire State Of Mind" if we don’t want to. That’s the most interesting angle, not the limited penetration of the single.  Ubiquity is a thing of the past.  And just like those who watch Fox News don’t watch MSNBC, and vice versa, those who like Lady GaGa don’t give a shit about the Brooklyn scene.  We no longer live in an homogenous society, with a common lingua franca, rather we’re all heading to the hills in a different direction, in search of that which appeals exactly to us.

We live in a Tower of Babel society.  Which cannot be fathomed by a music industry that believed in the silo of MTV exposure.  And whereas every cable system has a limited number of channels, the Internet is inherently unlimited.

So the rules have completely changed.  It’s less about marketing than quality.  If Bono wanted to get traction today, rather than rant in the "New York Times", he’d do what he does best, cut a record with his band.  Something so good that the new avenues of distribution would pick it up and drive people to U2.  Where you monetize in the food chain is an interesting question, but not as interesting as the death of the old paradigm, one of scarcity, with the public chomping like lemmings upon that which is fed to them.

Distribution has been flattened.  Anybody can play.  In news, music, movies, political opinion, you name it.  Either try to establish a dominant distribution platform, or focus purely on content.

Good luck dominating in distribution if you’re an oldster.  Ever notice that the Web is ruled by youngsters, developing better plumbing and sites?

And if you focus on content, know that your Armani suit and your friends mean nothing.  It’s the final product, now more than ever.  Doesn’t matter how much you spend, it’s whether the audience is titillated/thrilled/informed/riveted.  And this is only going to get worse.

Sure, there are going to be winners and losers.  But dominance is a thing of the past.  Just like the TV networks have lost market share to cable outlets, stars’ careers are being cut down to size by the plethora of alternatives.  Mariah Carey’s album stiffed because we weren’t forced to hear it.  We weren’t tuned into MTV and we don’t listen to the radio.  This is the exact opposite of the Tommy Mottola paradigm.  Your customer is no longer the intermediary, the radio station, the newspaper, the TV network, but the fan.

Isn’t it curious that radio, newspapers and TV are in trouble, whereas Google is laughing all the way to the bank?  Play in Google world.  With a product that serves the customer first.  Google triumphed not by corralling surfers, by forcing them to use the search engine, but by delivering the results people wanted.

The way to success is to win the hearts and minds of the customer and build from there.  Anything else is just a waste of time.

I’m sick and fucking tired of people telling me to be more positive.  To focus on solutions rather than problems.  Don’t you get it, it all comes down to the MUSIC!

That’s what I love about this business.  You’re either a player or a supporter.  There’s a clear divide.  That’s the difference from the movie business.  Even a five year old can tell you what’s wrong with filmed entertainment.  The acting was bad, or the story wasn’t believable, or the sets were phony.  But ask a fifty year old about a record and he’ll shrug his shoulders and say he liked it or he didn’t.  That’s about as far as it goes.

So, you’re sitting there trying to be a manager, or a booking agent, even starting a label. And you’re frustrated, and dipping your toe in social media, reading marketing books. I’m gonna tell you, that’s all bullshit.  Find one great act and the doors will open to you.

The major labels triumphed because they had the best acts.  But then they got greedy, the execs started thinking they were the talent, they broke the cardinal music business rule, that we all bow down to the creator.  If you’re really that talented, make your own damn music.  This happens in the movie sphere, producers become directors.  But when was the last time a record company president became a best-selling artist? When did he even make a record?

And for you frustrated artists, I’ll say it one more time…  Your lack of success probably comes down to the fact that you’re just not that good.  Sorry, the truth hurts.  And if you’re the king of klezmer or the new Philip Glass and want to complain that you’re not on "American Idol"?  Wow, how do you cope every day, are you really that far from reality? Just because you’re good at something, anything, that doesn’t mean the whole world needs to pay attention.

What does the public like?  Melody.  A good voice.  A beat.  These aren’t immutable rules, and it’s the cutting edge that we tend to become enamored of, but if we can’t sing your song and think you can barely sing it either, GIVE UP!

Or practice a ton more.

Yes, practice.  That’s how you get better.  Sure playing every night in a bar helps.  But you’ve also got to challenge yourself.  You’ve got to test your own limits, learn more than three chords, not so you can use them so much as you become aware of the POSSIBILITIES!

If you’re a musician, listen to a lot of records.

If you want to write lyrics, read a lot of books.

Doctors go to school to become M.D.’s.  Why should you be able to be a world famous music star without putting in the work?

The hardest thing to do in this business is find a hit act.  You can be the best manager, the most tenacious agent, but if you don’t have a hit act, you’re doomed to failure. Speak to a concert promoter.  He’ll tell you there’s no way you can get people to come to see a stiff act.  Even if you pick them up in limos and give them good seats.

A great act can make a ton of business mistakes, have a less than great manager, a rip-off label and STILL make it.  A third-rate act with the best team is still a third-rate act.

I think it’s great that you’re looking for innovative ways to do business, that you want to challenge old models.  But some things never change.  And what never changes in this business is it all comes down to the music.  More than ever.  In a world where anybody can make a record and the audience doesn’t concentrate on one outlet, not even one format.  Some people listen to NO radio.  Others watch NO television.

But that doesn’t mean greatness will go unnoticed.  We’re all looking for quality.  And, if we find it, we tell everybody we know.  So, a great act gets traction.  But takes a long time to make it.  Shit, the Kings Of Leon would have been gargantuan right away fifteen or twenty years ago.  Now it takes that long just to get people to pay attention.

And maybe KOL weren’t that great in the beginning.  To think that talent needs to emerge fully-formed is to think that babies can do calculus.  It’s a long hard road to becoming a musician.  Short cuts might deliver success sooner, having your songs written by the usual suspects and working with an experienced producer might give you a leg up.  But there’s no real foundation, you’re going to fall back to earth if you don’t do the work.

Everything I write, all the innovation, it only applies to GOOD ACTS!  The question is, what choices do you make if the act has talent.  If it doesn’t, GIVE UP!

You’re not entitled to a gig in the music industry.  People don’t need records the same way they need food.  If you can’t associate yourself with a good act, you’re going to starve, no matter what your desire.

Finding great talent and bonding to it is a skill unto itself.  Don’t rail against Irving Azoff or Jimmy Iovine, this is what they do BEST!

And until you do it as well as they do, you’re gonna be broke.

Sorry.

Bob,  it has been a while since I felt compelled to respond to your often amusing blog.  Much of what you write today is an accurate observation of our industry, both live and recorded, however, I have to take issue with opinion when presented as fact.

First of all,  I have seen Whitney recently and she looks healthy and totally connected to her career again.  For the record, AEG Live, the company I run, is not promoting the tour and I am responding to your published innuendo purely as a fan.

Secondly,  if you listen to either satellite, internet or terrestrial radio, especially, the #1 music station in LA, KIIS-FM, and have not heard "Empire State of Mind", you must immediately get a hearing aid.  This song is magnificient and has virtually no burn factor in the heaviest rotation I have ever experienced on a radio station like KIIS.  For the record, AEG Live is proudly promoting Alicia’s tour and my competitor has Jay "locked" up for years, so with respect to this printed inaccuracy, I am both biased and neutral.

Lastly,  those "anybody in the business" experts, or more accurately, schmucks, have either mis-information or no information when calling the Peas tour so early in the first quarter (to borrow a sports analogy).  We put up 33 shows across the U.S. in which half were close to sold-out in the pre-sale and the others ranged from fantastic (8K+ sold) to "good start" (6K+ sold) to worrisome in a few secondary/tertiarary markets where the public on-sale was 4K or slightly less.  There are only 5 of those markets where $$$ are extremely tight and unemployment incredibly high.  I am happy to report that the "wraps" (tickets sold through on a day-to-day, week-to-week basis) have been strong.  We will end up doing between 85% – 100% of sellable capacity across the entire world tour.  Incidentally, our UK dates have been explosive as we head into our 4th to be sold-out O2 Arena.

The truth is that I do not have to defend Whitney, Jay and Alicia, or the Peas.  Facts always trump fiction and results matter more than the negative banter of "haters" or misguided speculation.  I would like to continue to hold your blog in higher regard than, say, Hits Magazine!

Happy New Year,

Randy Phillips
President & CEO
AEG Live

P.S.  So much for my damn vacation!

Is this paradigm dead?

The blogosphere is rife with stories that Whitney Houston is back drinkin’ and druggin’.  One writer connected it with the stress of her new album.  Whitney had a new album?  Oh, that’s right…  I never heard a single song and other than this negative news blip, I haven’t read a word about her in weeks, possibly months, even though the album came out on August 31st.

Talk to someone in New York, and they’ll start bloviating about the success of "Empire State Of Mind".  You don’t hear it in L.A.  Even if it is number two on the chart.  Sure, if you dial up the right radio station I’m sure you’ll enjoy a spin, but it’s so easy to avoid not only that station, but ALL stations.

Which brings us to the sad case of the Black Eyed Peas.  This supposedly dominant act’s tour is a stiff, ask anybody in the business.  Didn’t it used to be you couldn’t get a ticket to a star’s show?

But what’s a star anymore?

Kim Kardashian is a star.  She couldn’t sell out a club, she could barely fill a toilet.

But she and her sisters are newsworthy.  For their plastic surgeries, their sexual shenanigans, for their on again off again romances.  What does this have to do with music?  Nothing.  And that’s the point.  Used to be musicians got the ink, we loved their music and wanted to know their stories.  Then they started playing to the press, by dressing up and living large.  Which also have nothing to do with music.  So, it seems, you’re either a star or a musician, but very rarely both.  Hell, the more ink you get, the less seriously the public takes you.  Suddenly, you’re living in the world of Paris Hilton, where we’re more interested in gotcha journalism, your stupid exploits than your music.

Jon Bon Jovi sells a hell of a lot of concert tickets.  But not a hell of a lot of albums.  Because even on tour, he’s only going to be seen by a fraction of the public.  Most people just don’t care.

That’s the way it used to be.  Music was cottage industry.

This is what the fat cats rail about, the loss of the diamond seller.  It’s not so much theft as the inability for someone to rise like a phoenix.  No one can get that mindshare anymore.  And, if you’re trying to achieve it, by whoring yourself out here and there, you’re sacrificing your credibility in the process.  And it’s your credibility that keeps people bonded to you.

Set your sights low.  Not because you suck, but how many people love ANYTHING?  With so many alternatives, people delve into the niche they desire.  On cable TV, on the Internet…and now it’s no different in the music sphere.

Be thrilled you have any audience at all!  And try to satiate your fans!

Look at it like building a fire.  You need kindling.  You need to add a log at a time, never too soon, because it might put the whole thing out.  And no matter how big you build your blaze, someone in the next state can’t see it, its impact is limited, just like your musical career.

In the late twentieth century it was all about reaching everybody.  Selling every last album to every available customer, touring the world to convert those who don’t even speak the language.  Albums had three year cycles. Now they don’t even have three month cycles.  The public moves on.  We’ll check out the train-wreck for an instant. Yes, I saw Jay-Z and Alicia Keys perform "Empire State Of Mind" at the VMAs, but I’ve had no desire to hear it since, and I DON’T HAVE TO!

Really, think about this.  In a world of unlimited options, that’s just what you are, another option.  You’re a speck in the firmament.  You’re making less money not because people are stealing, but because you just can’t get enough people to pay attention.  That’s what you’re fighting for, ongoing attention.  With the emphasis on "ongoing".  If it’s momentary, it’s meaningless.  Stunting is worthless.  You’ve got to campaign endlessly, slog ad infinitum. Continually release music, continually engage your audience.

There’s a reason Tommy Mottola lost his job.  And why agents and managers are more important than label people.  It’s no longer about razzle-dazzle, but building a career.