They have no idea how AI works.

Once you get past the poker, “On the Edge” is a very deep exploration of concepts known and unknown. You’ll feel like there’s an alternative universe out there, and not only are you not a member, do you really care?

I took a philosophy course in college that was deadly, if for no other reason than it was taught at eight in the morning by an aged guy who seemed ready to pass. Philosophy is not something I think about, never mind the fact that it does not pay.

But it turns out there are all these philosophers and philosophies in the tech/bleeding edge world.

Like “Effective Altruism.” I heard that bandied about when SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried), got in trouble. I thought it was just a guy using his money to achieve good ends. But NO! It’s a whole philosophy. And it’s in battle with the Rationalists. Really.

And then there are the philosophers debating doom. Whether the world is going to end and when. And how many people have to die in order to rub out humanity.

Really.

As for Sam Bankman-Fried…

What you’ve got to know is it was the emperor’s new clothes. Everybody bought the act, the VCs, the investors. Here you’ve got a guy from MIT who shows up in shorts and spews all this opportunity, all this money to be made, he must be right, let’s give him boatloads of cash.

But when Silver sits down with him even before the FTX crash, SBF says such insane things it’s amazing, anybody listening wouldn’t have thought he was off his rocker. SBF was all in, with concepts that made no sense, that relied on trust that people don’t have. Like we’ll put all your money in a black box and you’ll get a token in exchange, and then everybody will get rich when the tokens go up! Who is going to put millions into that? Hard-earned cash for air? That didn’t come to be.

But crypto…

Crypto started as a new banking system, with traceable assets, that would reduce friction in exchanges.

That’s not what it ended up to be. But Andreessen Horowitz is so deep into it, it wants its return, even though crypto is now a giant casino. And casinos are built on marks. Are you sitting at home really thinking you know more than, or even as much as, the people in control, who do this every day?

This is what has happened in politics. Which leads to crypto. All the authorities have been taken off the table. People are led into the wilderness by a pariah, telling them riches are in the offing.

Well, in truth many crypto investors lose money. There’s little talk about this because the losses are spread over such a large number of people.

Furthermore, just like Vegas itself, you hear about the winners, but the losers?

And then it comes down to AI, which the average person thinks they understand but they don’t.

As for being ready for prime time… I was reading Emily Nussbaum’s highly reviewed but unread by many book on reality TV, “Cue the Sun!” If you haven’t been a consistent viewer of reality television, don’t bother. But if you watched, you’ll learn some interesting stuff, like the only person who actually lived in the “Real World” house during the first season was Julie.

Anyway, Nussbaum writes in depth about “The Bachelor,” a show I’ve never watched. And talks about Trista Rehn, how everybody on the inside believed she’d win the first season, and how she ultimately married that firefighter, had kids and has lived happily ever after.

I decided to Google her. And Google’s AI told me that TRISTA WAS A FIREFIGHTER!

Yes, it made a mistake. A HUGE mistake. And if I hadn’t known a little about Trista and her life, I would have bought it.

So if you’re depending on AI… You never know when it will hallucinate, get it wrong.

But the story is AI combs data, on the web. And it can come up with remarkably relevant and correct answers, but also can be totally wrong. So the AI companies hire humans to correct it. And it keeps getting smarter and smarter but does it ever truly get smart enough?

But the bottom line is you type a question… Silver analogizes it to a symphony orchestra. The conductor assigns everybody their part, they go off to practice…

Every word is assigned a token. Those in charge of each token go in search of answers. But the violins work together, before they report back to the conductor.

And all the instruments are working on different tokens simultaneously. And at the end, they show up with their info, pop it into a translator and voila, you’ve got an answer.

But how exactly did AI do it?

What is happening on those token searches. How are the different instruments/token owners collaborating? THEY DON’T KNOW, ONLY THAT IT WORKS!

Really.

You’ll learn all this and more if you read “On the Edge.”

But you’re going to really have to want to read it. Because it’s five hundred pages long. And it’s a mess, it doesn’t hold together. There’s this overall theme of risk, as evidenced in poker, devolving into game theory and other mathematical concepts, but then there’s detailed investigations of Vegas, Silicon Valley, crypto, AI, that really don’t need to be in the same book. Yes, they’re tied together by risk…but Silver is so deep into his endeavor that he can’t see the forest for the trees. Like a college student delivering a paper in order to get a grade, to evidence completion, comprehensibility and quality are not reached, never mind even being the goals.

However, there is a lot of stimulating info contained within the book’s pages. But very few will read it. Because they’ve never had to read a book like this. People don’t want to put in hours to read something that is not straightforward, that they have to mentally wrestle with.

Unfortunately, that’s where the rewards are.

Will there be better books on these subjects?

Well, you’ve got Michael Lewis, a great writer whose belief in himself and his ideas is so strong that he was totally snookered by SBF, never mind the parents in “Blind Side.”

And the people interviewing Silver… They’ve got neither the time nor the inclination to read the book. who’s going to dedicate in excess of ten hours to do so, they’re busy building their brand, becoming famous!

But if you want to know more about America, the divide between Silicon Valley and the east coast intelligentsia, you will gain a ton of insight from reading “On the Edge.”

But be forewarned, it’s not easy.

The legendary writer of “Wichita Lineman,” “By the Time I Get to Phoenix,” “MacArthur Park” and many more discusses his hits, his history and his tenure on the ASCAP board!

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jimmy-webb/id1316200737?i=1000667071654

 

 

 

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/8a152c29-0c62-4931-80aa-9d5a2de36512/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-jimmy-webb

Re: Midnight Rider

This clip sums up why talent cannot remain hidden forever. It’s simple, profound, touching, and deeply human…

Olivier Chastan

1

You could never know this guy. He was too laid back, too cool, and back then there was no access.

Even more you wanted to BE this guy. Cool with charisma. You were a mirror star, but in truth you were nothing special, nobody noticed you, you lived in your own world where the music completed you, it was the only thing that understood you.

They don’t make ’em like this anymore. Musicians.

That’s what they say they are, but most are not.

Today not only do you believe in brand extensions, oftentimes you can neither play nor write. You’re a construct for cash, a monetary effort.

But once upon a time, it was different.

We tingled. Because there was no personal access, just to be in the room with these cats was a peak experience.

Used to be there came a point where you decided whether you were going to go pro or stay in school, get a day job. And if you took the road less traveled, it was not easy. Sure, you’d eventually cut and shop a demo, but that was after years of paying dues.

So if you were a musician… You’d already spent years learning your instrument, not that you did not continue to practice. If you were lucky you had enough of a rep that you could go on the road. In a van, or like the Allmans, a Winnebago. You got high and played your heart out on stage. Trying to win over mostly people who did not know you, never mind the material.

And if you did it enough, maybe you broke through.

You’ve got to know the musicians of yore were different from those of today. Because they were making it up as they went along. That picture in “Rolling Stone” of Duane Allman’s guitars belted into the seat next to him on the plane… It wasn’t like you could buy a manual, even go to Guitar Center, you worked things out through trial and error. And when you broke through the devotion of the fans…

Was not like being a Swiftie. Or a K-Pop fan.

It was the way the music made you feel. And when you went to see the band live it was just the band, no tapes, the sound they made on stage was all you got. And the Allmans were legendary because of the sound they made, but unlike today’s acts they neither demanded to make it immediately nor did they achieve this status. It took a while for the audience to catch up with them, for word of mouth to spread.

2

The come and go blues… I’ve experienced them.

You’ve gotten beyond crush status. You actually know them. You’ve gone places together, but they’re still going places with other people. They’re fully present when they’re here, but they’re not always here, what do you do?

LISTEN TO A RECORD!

“People say that you’re no good

But I wouldn’t cut you loose, baby, if I could”

There might have been a few women at my high school who were no good, but in the suburbs everything was truly average, safe. But these musicians…they were involved with a whole ‘nother level of person, one unavailable to us, one we could only dream of.

And the musicians were in a completely different category from the actors. Because the musicians WERE their songs. They wrote ’em and played ’em from their heart.

“Well I seem to stay down on the ground

Baby I’m too far gone to turn around”

But when you’re infatuated, they’re all you can think about. Everybody tells you to move on, you might even acknowledge their truth, but you just can’t.

“Oh, if only you would make up your mind

Take me where you go, you’re leaving me behind”

You want to have an honest discussion. But you’re afraid of falling flat, professing your love and finding out they don’t see you that way, that you’re just a “friend”… And then you run away and avoid them in the future.

“Lord, you got those come and go blues”

I’ve had ’em in high school, I’ve had ’em as an adult, and I wish I could give you some advice, but I can’t, it’s a private hell.

3

Now “Eat a Peach” was a huge seller, but it didn’t have the feel of a breakthrough, it was more of a holding pattern. One studio disc, one live disc. Another double album. It seemed like a continuation of “Fillmore East,” then again the band had been through a tragedy. Duane couldn’t be replaced, and they didn’t. “Eat a Peach” was everywhere, the studio cuts had impact, but mostly it was people who were already fans.

And then came “Brothers and Sisters.”

It was all new studio work. The fans ate it up immediately.

But “Ramblin’ Man” crossed over to AM, when that was still a thing, and the Allmans had never done this before. Which mean that a whole lot of people bought an Allman Brothers album who never had before. The Allman Brothers, as big as they had been, were no longer just owned by those who’d been with them through thick and thin, but EVERYBODY!

And when you dropped the needle on “Brothers and Sisters” you heard a statement, “Wasted Words” was in your face, the band was a freight train, firing on all cylinders. This was not “Ain’t Wastin’ Time No More,” the opener on “Eat a Peach.”

“Ain’t Wastin’ Time No More” started with a piano, it was slow, in a groove, there was gravitas, there was meaning. This was the “Idlewild South” sound, the trademark Gregg Allman number. 

But on “Wasted Words” Gregg was no longer reflective. He was up front, he was all in, he was back.

But he only had two originals on “Brothers and Sisters.”

And what happened to that magical, introspective sound that hooked us just as much as the twin guitar tears?

Well, once you finished with “Ramblin’ Man,” the second cut on the LP, you got a Gregg Allman classic, “Come and Go Blues.”

The piano was akin to a slide, taking you immediately into the water.

The guy singing this cut… He was experienced, unlike us, he was full of wisdom, and we couldn’t stop listening to him.

And the way he became more intense in the chorus, and the piano in that section, it was so infectious.

But “Come and Go Blues” was just an album track, I never heard anybody talk about it. And did I mention the dynamite piano playing in the breaks? Straight out of a roadhouse, where most of us had never been. We were waiting to live, and that’s all they’d been doing down south from the date of birth. They weren’t thinking long term, just about today. It wasn’t forever, just for now. And therefore the music had a completely different feel, we were outsiders, these were not New York bands, we just wanted to get closer, we wanted to live in this sound, this environment that was foreign but as American as apple pie.

4

People send me YouTube videos all the time. Spotify tracks too. If I just pay attention, I’ll get it, immediately. They love it, I should too.

But that’s not how it works. Most people have lousy taste, which they’re entitled to, but then there are those you can trust.

And you learn who they are.

Olivier Chastan has a history of sending me winners, and when he wrote the above e-mail, I checked out the clip.

It was so quiet. Gregg stopped to pull something from his teeth. He was completely comfortable with his instrument, it was a part of him, and then he sang as if he had no problem, as if this was really him, in an era where many stars can’t, sing. And those who can rarely write great songs.

But it’s when the camera focuses on Gregg’s face that it strikes you… Who is exactly is this guy? He definitely doesn’t seem safe. He’s the kind of guy you’d avoid in a bar, but the girls would flock to.

But he’s effortlessly playing this classic number. Not worried about matching the record, because the song is in him, he’s just letting it loose.

This is not the bedraggled Gregg Allman. This guy has some miles on him, but he’s fully alive, then again is he stoned?

And this organ player can pick those notes, play that guitar.

And the way he stops for just a second to tune his guitar…

This is the magic that infected us, that kept us going for decades, which is gone now.

First and foremost, there’s no mystery. Not only are you omnipresent, we know everything about you. Charisma is nearly impossible to maintain.

And musicians are not the peak of society. They may be stars, they may be rich, but they’re not as rich as the techies and the bankers, they don’t influence the culture as much, they’re chasing as much as leading.

And Gregg Allman is leading in this clip almost effortlessly.

Where’d he go after this?

How long was he even there?

You don’t see hair and makeup, all the handlers. It’s just him.

And he’s playing a song better than almost everything in today’s hit parade. Acoustically, he don’t need no stinkin’ help.

It’s all in this clip.

And it’s all gone, that rock and Gregg himself.

But he’s so alive here.

It’s just like Gregg and his band feeding on the music of the Delta bluesmen.

These are our classics.

“This can be one cause of every poker player’s worst fear: ’tilt,’ the phenomenon where your perception of what’s happening at the table has gone completely askew and you’re making blunder after blunder. Poker players tend to think of tilt as an emotional state—anger after a bad beat, boredom after a slow run of cards, or overconfidence after a winning streak. But it can also have biological causes. In big moments when you’re confronted with a high-stakes decision, you’re essentially working with a different operating system than the one you’re used to. If a player reacts by going into an anxiety spiral, ‘it’s like a blue screen on your computer where your mind is just either frozen or so emotionally hijacked that you’re no longer thinking straight,’ said Tendler.”

“On the Edge”

Nate Silver

Trump is on tilt.

But let’s be clear, Biden was on tilt after the June debate, or close to it. Joe was desperate, on the run, he gave public performances that just reinforced the step he’d lost. He refused to leave the race, and was oblivious to the truth, that he had lost the faith of his party and would probably not win the election.

But we learned two things here. One about politics and the Democratic party, that they’re not transparent and no one is trustworthy. Second, that despite looking like an everyman, Joe from Scranton, Biden was a power-hungry official just like the rest of them. He thought only he could fix it. He was delusional.

But now Biden is gone.

And that puts the focus on Trump.

And now we can see Trump through the lens of Biden. We knew Trump was a megalomaniac, needing to be at the top, in power, but not to the degree we do now.

No one can rein in Trump. That’s the story in every news outlet. That his handlers, the party, tell him to stick to the script. But now that Kamala has stolen his thunder, now that he’s losing in the polls, Trump has lost his mind.

You’ve got to read some of his posts.

Never mind that he’s posting 24/7 online anyway.

This is one of the reasons Musk has lost stature in the eye of the public. We thought you had a job, we thought you had TWO jobs, each one at the cutting edge of technology, requiring constant oversight. Where in the hell do you find the time to be posting constantly on X/Twitter, never mind the content?

I mean it was a breakthrough for Trump to employ social media back in 2016. He looked more with it than Hillary. But now everybody’s online. Today there was scuttlebutt that if you refuse to make expensive purchases on your phone, if you need to go to your desktop, you’re derided by Gen-Z as out of touch.

The football moved.

Furthermore, people do make their living by being online 24/7. We have a whole category for them, they’re known as “influencers.” At best they’re money machines, train-wrecks, credibility is not their calling, nor their reputation, they’ll do whatever it takes to make a buck.

Which is the hole Trump has now fallen into. Trading cards? Hyping a book? I don’t care if his audience buys these products or not, but Trump is undercutting his image, or pulling back the curtain to reveal his true identity, that he’s just a huckster, only looking to make money, the country be damned.

So he just said he won the championship at his Palm Beach club. Does ANYBODY believe that? Come on, you can see him play golf online. He’s got terrible technique, and he’s old. There’s not a single other club member who can beat him?

Trump is amping up not only the lies, but the vitriol.

He’s excoriated every facet of ABC re the coming debate, the outlet, the moderators… I mean why even show up? If you really believed it was this bad, this against you, you wouldn’t participate. But Trump can’t forgo the spotlight. He’s trying to set the stage in case of failure, just like he did with the 2020 election, but his scorched earth statements make everybody but the dyed in the wool MAGA camp wince.

Bill Clinton listened to feedback. He moved to the center running for his second term and many Democrats will never forgive him, but he got elected. And Hillary was so famous for triangulating, looking at the research, that she ended up being totally unbelievable. Hell, when she said her favorite book was the Bible, even I winced, and I voted for her.

But Biden wouldn’t listen. And Trump won’t listen at all.

They both think they have their finger on the pulse on the American public. And there’s no evidence that can prove them wrong. It’s akin to the musicians who send me their mediocre music and say they’re never gong to give up, they’re lifers, putting in their 10,000 hours. They’re DELUSIONAL!

The public was not down with Biden. As proven by the great surge for Kamala once she became the candidate. Both Joe and Donald whip out outlier polls when confronted with the fact and stats that they’re losing. Donald can’t stop quoting his Rasmussen numbers, which are legendarily skewed towards Republicans. Furthermore, irrelevant of whether you like Nate Silver or not, his concept of creating a model that averages the polls has permeated the public, these models represent the zeitgeist. To the point when this outlet or that says Trump is winning or losing in their poll I don’t really pay attention, they’re living in a bubble, they’re not taking into account the work of every other researcher.

Even rock stars are not this bad. They don’t rant and rave in public when their new record stiffs, they just go on the road and count their dollars and try to figure out a way to have another hit. Or maybe they never record again, not wanting to tarnish their reputations. But they are certainly aware of  the public’s perception of them.  Biden and Trump? NO WAY!

You’re supposed to be running the country, but you’re not fully aware of the people in it?

I just read that Kamala Harris went to a Bad Religion show in the early aughts. I know at least we can have a discussion, sharing some of the same reference points. But Trump? I’m sure he’d find a way to call me a loser. Unless I suck up to him. But then he’d cut me out at some point in the future. This is what RFK, Jr. doesn’t understand. Trump now has what he wants, RFK, Jr.’s endorsement, he no longer cares about RFK, Jr. WHATSOEVER!

So Trump’s got the MAGA people. There’s nothing he can say or do to alienate them. But they’re not enough to win. In order to be victorious Trump has to find a way to convince non-fans to vote for him.

But who wants to vote for a sore loser detached from reality, someone who’s perennially angry, just looking for an enemy to lambaste?

Yes, ever since the convention Trump has been completely out of control.

What did Kenny Rogers sing, you have to know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em?

You stay silent during the other party’s convention. Otherwise you look like a loser, no one likes a party crasher.

And ever since then there’s been one insane statement after another.

To the point where it’s actually FUNNY!

What will this guy come up with next? Can we trust anybody in the world other than him? He’s got a problem with not only the networks, but the cable outlets, not only MSNBC and CNN, but Fox too.

We can’t live on quicksand. There must be some basic truths, that Trump can point to as opposed to just making them up.

Trump is now the underdog. You can fight and win from that position. Furthermore, people tend to like the underdog. Instead Trump keeps talking about Biden, both Joe and Hunter!

That’s one thing we’ve learned with Biden’s ouster. Once you’re gone we no longer think of you. The news moves just that fast.

Trump’s the kind of guy who would get dropped by his label. No one wants to work with someone who’s insane. Trump is verging on Kanye territory, he’s just one step away from becoming a pariah. He’s bad, just one racist or antisemitic comment away from totaling his candidacy.

And let’s be clear, his acolytes won’t care. They’ll go down with him, just like fans bought all those discontinued Kanye shoes Adidas blew out.

Hell, one of the tropes after the end of World War II was there were Japanese soldiers living in the hinterlands who still didn’t know the war was over.

Not only is Trump fighting the last battle, he doesn’t seem grounded in reality. And sure, he won the nomination, but he and his Republican party have been on an election losing streak.

I no longer have emotion, I’m no longer intellectually involved. I’m not worried about Trump’s statements hurting Kamala and Walz, I’m just watching the conflagration. I’ve never seen anything like this. The guy is completely out of control, way over the line, and not only can no one stop him, there are people who will vote for him!

But not enough. Certainly if he doesn’t mellow out and change his ways.

But when you’re on tilt you’re desperate, you can’t sleep at night, you believe you must fight back instead of pulling back and taking stock, figuring out a new strategy.

Trump is all in. All the time. And this is not a winning strategy in poker.

Nor in elections.

You’ve got to appear human.

Or you’ve got to rig the election, like Maduro, or Putin.

That could happen. And people hate elites, they hate Democrats. They’ll vote for Trump no matter what. But the rest of us? WHO IS THIS GUY? Someone who will do anything for attention, who has no friends, who only trusts himself. Those people don’t win in regular society, and they certainly don’t win in elections. Hell, Trump lost in 2020 and he looked reasonable back then compared to how he is now.

This is the best entertainment on the planet.

The self-immolation.

Like those people who set themselves on fire to protest. We don’t embrace the cause, we just ask what got into these people that they could be so delusional and take such an action? Couldn’t anybody talk to them and get them to stop?

Apparently not.

And it’s the same deal with Trump.

We can all see it, but somehow he’s blind. Such an egomaniac, so deep in his own sh*t, that he’s lost touch with reality. Lying with impunity about stuff that doesn’t even matter.

Forget the issues. It’s about personalities.

And unless you’re a fan of Kim Jong Un… How in the hell are you going to get behind a delusional autocrat?

You’re not.