Fortune’s Fool

I didn’t get to sleep until 3 AM Saturday because I was riveted by this book.  Fred Goodman was telling the story of the implosion of the Warner Music Group.

It seems like ancient history.  But fifteen years ago, Bob Morgado and Doug Morris conspired to exclude Bob Krasnow and demote Mo Ostin so they could be all powerful he-men.  Give Doug credit, he learned from his mistakes, he’s much lower profile at Universal and the company runs well.  But we cannot forget the havoc he wreaked on the other side of the street.

Bob Krasnow’s been forgotten.  But even though Clive Calder had the greatest financial victory of all time, Krasnow built the best ever label in the business.  Inheriting Elektra/Asylum from Joe Smith, he moved it to the east coast, dropped almost every act and started over, and built a company the likes of which hasn’t been seen since.  Elektra operated in a multitude of genres, and was successful with acts as disparate as Metallica, Anita Baker and the Gipsy Kings.

Meanwhile, on the opposite coast, Mo Ostin built the business we all still pine for.  At Warner/Reprise, the artist was king.  The music came first.  It was about careers, about releasing no music before its time.  It wasn’t the big bad label telling you to deliver your album for Christmas, Mo held your hand until you ultimately dropped something so significant, it’s still selling today.

But they had to go.  Because Steve Ross, the referee, was dead.  And Doug Morris, who was running a hits-driven business at Atlantic, was power-hungry.

And then there was a game of musical chairs and not only were the above four personages gone, Morgado, Morris, Krasnow and Ostin, but Danny Goldberg and Morgado’s replacement Michael Fuchs too.  All on the public dime, I might add.  Time Warner stock was traded on Wall Street.  And ultimately frustrated, Dick Parsons blew the record company out for chump change to Edgar Bronfman, Jr. and his financial cohorts.

That’s really what this book is about.  Edgar gave Goodman access, and the book reads like it.

You’ll enjoy the history of the family.  Well done.  But thereafter, it’s all about Edgar rehabilitation.  Goodman convinced me Edgar’s not hatable and smarter than people give him credit for, but convince me again why he sold Universal to Vivendi?  I get the concept of a far-reaching media conglomerate, but what I don’t understand is why he gave up CONTROL!  Study corporate politics, you manipulate the stockholdings to the point where you always maintain control. How else can Sumner Redstone still be pulling off his shenanigans?  Never mind the $3 billion in destruction of value, Edgar was chief of Seagram and Universal and he gave both of those up?  Sure, there’s some money left, but money isn’t everything, control is.  Just ask Barry Diller re his dealings with John Malone.

And thereafter "Fortune’s Fool" devolves into a mash note to the new Warner Music.  I almost couldn’t read it.  Lyor’s an interesting character.  But he’s no Bob Krasnow or Mo Ostin, nobody working for Warner is.  And none of them have a clue when it comes to digital.  Which is why the major labels are going to get destroyed by a twentysomething with a computer.  Their old monopoly of distribution is now gone, they think their money will sustain them. But it won’t, it always comes down to control, as stated above.  And there’s always a manager who controls the act before the majors come snooping.  A great manager will roll up a bunch of acts and suddenly be the new king.  Doubt me?  Internet history says otherwise.  Facebook ate MySpace.  AOL is irrelevant, if not dead.  And Jimmy & Doug’s Farmclub could not succeed, because none of these ancient enterprises were a match for a twentysomething with a laptop.

And then Goodman laments free music.  The whole epilogue could be trashed.  I don’t believe in free music either, but the solution is a better mousetrap.  A better way of selling music.  A business solution, not a constant denigration of the audience.

So I’m ambivalent as to whether to recommend this book or not. It’s got too little inside dope, it lacks "Hit Men"’s revelations.  Then again, I expect it to be the definitive statement on Warner’s destruction in the nineties…he who writes history controls it.

Warner is the most advanced label digitally.  But my mother is more computer-savvy than her nearly ninety year old brother, and neither is capable of managing their desktop.  You read this book and you see how things come and go. Companies and people.  Monoliths that looked indomitable become irrelevant.  Ten years ago, Microsoft was a monopolist, today many see it as a joke, it’s certainly lacking in innovation, coasting on its catalog, like a big publishing company.  A bigwig at the last iteration of Elektra is now running a summer camp.  The music lives on, but that’s it.  And frequently, even the artists are dead…Jim Morrison is bigger in death, and so is Jimi Hendrix.  Both of them Warner artists, I might add…

But reading this book you’ll be stunned that how it used to be, it no longer is.  A record company was a towering paragon of quality, an icon that delivered our cultural food.  Now, the company name might be the same, but they’re not selling food, but tchotchkes, and we don’t really need those.  Isn’t that the cliche…are we really going to be listening to today’s music ten years from now?

No.  Certainly not the major label hits.

Which is why this book misses the mark.

Music will save the music business.  Not executives.

Petty Fiasco At The Gorge-RW2

I seriously doubt the management team of Live Nation is capable of running the company.  Concert promotion is about shows, not Wall Street presentations (which the company also does poorly.)

You’ve got to read the comments about Tom Petty’s show at the Gorge.  There’s no excuse for an experience like this. Before Live Nation acquired the venue there were no complaints.  What went wrong?  Was there too little staff?  Were people improperly trained?  Have budgets been cut so slim that the job can no longer be done?

All concert promotion is local.  Sure, you can roll up radio stations and broadcast the same pap amongst twenty plus minutes of commercials, but even that ain’t working so hot, especially now that people have alternatives.  And believe me, people have alternatives to overpaying to see acts that are on the road playing their old hits again and again, year after year.

Trying to make the economics work, trying to keep its stock inflated, Live Nation has taken its eye off the ball.  Who can make this company run properly?  Probably no one.  But certainly not the team involved.

Someone needs to make the trains run on time and the cars can’t be antiques, but refurbished Pullmans.  Promoting concerts isn’t purely about a balance sheet, spending x to make y.  It’s ultimately a service business, and Live Nation is providing no service, certainly not at the Gorge.

Scroll down this page to relive the horrific experience:

A few examples:

aliciae7 – 22 June, 2010

Tom=AMAZING, venue=CRAP

I LOVE LOVE LOVE Tom & The Heartbreakers. They are my all time favorite band ever. Been listening to them since I was little. I have only been to 4 concerts in my life and have all been Tom!! 3 of which have been at the Gorge.. Tom & the Heartbreakers were absolutely AMAZING. This was by far the best show Ive seen them put on. Tom was so humble and even signed autographs for people when they were done playing..how cool is that!?! BUT the amphitheater was beyond CRAZY this time!! We got there an hour and a half early…after waiting in line to park for a good hour or so… only to find out there was a HUGE line to get into the amphitheater. We waited till 8 before we got in!! Missed all but three or so of Joe Cockers songs…which was okay because we came to see Tom anyways, but still, pay 120 bucks per ticket plus motel and gas that was crap. If that wasnt bad enough the lines for the bathrooms were ten min waits, the bathrooms were already full before Tom even started playing so I can only imagine what they were like towards the end of the concert. I delt with all that and thoroughly enjoyed the show but when it was over was the scary part. People were so packed and pushing each other Im surprised people didnt get trampled!!! I am only five feet tall so was looking at the backs of everyones shoulders, surrounded by stumbling drunks pushing me and kicking me and making my sandals come off over and over… and then if that wasnt bad enough the whole crowd started MOOING!!!! because they all knew it was like we were a cattle herd!! I had NEVER seen it that busy there and so out of control!! Was absolutely crazy. I would come back to see Tom only because its Tom & I love them (have his name across my back windshields of both rigs and soon to get the logo on my back!! 🙂 but they need to put a cap on the number of people allowed to purchase tickets for there or something because that was TOTALLY out of control!! Thumbs UP UP UP for Tom & the band Thumbs DOWN DOWN DOWN for the venue/event staff/live nation…whoever was at fault for the madness!!!!

LIMITEDEDITION – 16 June, 2010

The Gorge Experience

I love Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers and have been going to their shows since 1979. I never miss a TP&HB concert. But if they come back to the Gorge next time they tour, I will miss them. Tom and the band were excellent, but the entire experience at the Gorge was so awful that it was hard to get past it and enjoy the show the way we usually do. We also missed Joe Cocker, even though we arrived with plenty of time to spare. The lack of security and organization was unbelieveable. I have never liked the Gorge, and now I will not go back. I really hope they play a different venue in the Northwest next time they tour. I know many people love the Gorge, but many of us do not.

Live Nation failed!

Tom Petty said on Tavis Smiley, "All the trouble (fans) go to attend a concert, you owe them a great performance". Tom delivered. Live Nation didn’t. I was happy to spend $500 to reprise a concert experience my sons and I had in 1994 seeing Petty in Vancouver, and also revisit the Gorge for a concert. We enjoyed the concert, we completely were cheated out of the experience, we missed Joe Cocker, the sun setting over the hills, the ambience, etc. The mass of people crowded together was dangerous, especially when guys in the back started yelling "push" etc. It’s just good luck,not good management that no one was hurt. Live Nation grossed a minimum $1 million on this concert,.. they could have spent another $5000 looking after the fans, their customers. Contact media@livenation.com .. going to their site to get a refund is hopeless! Barb in Cranbrook

bigsky – 15 June, 2010

Gorge Lines

Agree with who ever drove 5 hours…and had to wait forever. I had tickets to Saturday’s show..drove 5 hours from Missoula, Montana to the Gorge. Will call was a nightmare…then the hearding of the people to get in. It’s the first time ever I missed the opening act, at a Petty concert there. What the hell is up with the staff 1 1/2 hours to get ticket and then get in. No wonder I missed Joe Cocker. ———————————- Tom Petty & Heartbreakers were in great form as usual..as if I had to even say that…it just goes without saying…You guys always rock..

jasonbeck10 – 15 June, 2010

Petty @ The Gorge

Petty’s show the second night at the Gorge was excellent as always. Saw him in Vancouver the Tuesday before and he played the same setlist both nights, but no biggie–both nights rocked! We drove down from Vancouver making the pilgrimmage in approximately 5 hours with stops. Small price for what is a great venue and always great show from Petty. That said, my three friends and I had row 9 seats ($150 each) and we arrived at Will Call at 6:15pm, over an hour before Joe Cocker was to hit the stage. We then waded into the massive body of thousands trying to get through the gates and moved approximately 20 feet in an hour. Not once did an employee take the initiative to give the crowd any indication of the wait time or if a problem existed or anything. Only added to a bad situation. Have never been so disappointed as when we heard Cocker’s set begin echoing in the distance and the line was clearly not going to move in time to get in without missing a significant chunk. Never did we think we’d miss the entire set and get to our seats only 15 minutes before Petty and the boys hit the stage. No chance for food, beer, T-shirts, souvenirs, nothing. We felt a bit cheated out of half the concert. As did many of the thousands trapped outside like cattle. Like I said, Petty’s show rocked, but the sour taste of a near 3-hour wait was too much to overcome. Don’t think I’ll come back to the Gorge again (this time was my third seeing Petty here after concerts in 2005 and 2008) after this experience. My friends would likely agree. Too bad, as the past two Petty concerts at the Gorge were great experiences where we could basically walk right in with little hassle. The entire concert and venue staff had the feel of a new team that was badly disorganized and didn’t know what they were in for. Can’t remember if Livenation has managed Petty concerts here before, but this was definitely my worst concert experience at any venue for any artist. I am embarrassed to complain (particularly on the website of my absolute favourite band) but couldn’t find any forum or method on either the Livenation or Gorge websites and felt those in charge should know the conditions for future concerts before more fans are lost.

Gorge Amphitheater – 6/12/10

I’m not one to be a pessimist, so I’ll start by saying that the set Tom and the boys played was amazing as usual. Mojo is going to rock and will be playing in my home and car for months. This was my twelth time seeing the band dating back to 1995 when I was in high school. This was the fourth time I’ve made the 250-mile drive to one of the most beautiful venues in the country. Nothing makes me happier than seeing this band live. With that being said, the organization at the Gorge on this particular night was about as poor as I can imagine. The chaos that ensued at the will call station and the entrance by a presumably understaffed crew at the Gorge was inexcusable. It took over ninety minutes from the time I got in line at will call to the time I set foot in the venue. I, like thousands of others I presume, missed Joe Cocker’s set. I’m not sure if the first nice day in what seemed like months in the NW was the culprit for this, or maybe it was because more premium seatholders had to pick up tickets at the venue in lieu of the mail (to combat the scalpers), but I hope that LiveNation gets their stuff together in the future. I feel guilty for posting this here because Tom and the HBs are my favorite band without question. I just want Tom to know! I consider myself a die hard, and have flown far away and made long road trips to see them, and I will keep doing it. I just hope that the people organizing these events will realize that we the fans sacrifice a lot in some cases to attend and we should never have to worry about standing in a line for an hour-and-a-half just to get into the venue. Joe Cocker, I’ll catch you next time. TPHB, you’re the best in the business and I hope for many more years and many more GREAT experiences.

Amsterdam

I’m crying.

This weekend the buzz was about "Inception".  Movies are great, but they can’t touch you like a song.  Like "Message To My Girl".  By Split Enz.

You haven’t heard it.  I had it on a cassette.  I remember playing it in my old car with my old wife.  It reminds me of a time gone by.  But unlike the greatest music, it loses nothing over time, it’s still alive today.

My favorite Napster downloads are "Liar", by Argent, a cover of "Like A Rolling Stone" performed by Michael Hedges and "Message To My Girl" by Split Enz with the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra.  I wasn’t going to write about "Message To My Girl", but I found it tacked on in a video to the song I did want to write about, "Amsterdam".  The live version of the latter is not as good as the studio take.  The recording is not perfect.  Unlike the impression I got from the title, the two songs don’t run together, there’s a break, they’re separate.  And then Neil Finn sits down at the keyboard and renders the essence of music.

Music is not about perfection.  Because life isn’t either.  That’s the illusion being proffered.  That if you just get enough plastic surgery, your life will work.  But ask Heidi Montag.  And Kim Kardashian may be smiling in public, but she’s got a string of failed relationships behind her.  She’s crying on the inside, but smiling for the camera.

We’re all crying on the inside.  But we can no longer show it.  But what do we do with these emotions?  Music used to speak to our inner life, before it became about hits and videos and money.  Sure, it was always about money, but before you could make enough to buy a professional sports team, the main driver for music creation was feeling.  The goal was to get what was inside down on wax.  Frequently, it wasn’t even about the recording, but the evanescent live recording.

Which is now captured.

At first Neil Finn’s vocal is so perfect, you can’t believe it, you’re stunned, it’s as good as the recording.  Then he stretches and reveals his frailties.  The same way you adore someone from afar and get to know them and discover their imperfections.  Yes, this rendition of "Message To My Girl" is humanity on parade.

And "Message To My Girl" is so good, I’m always interested in what Mr. Finn does.  On the last Crowded House album there’s a song that still shocks me when I hear it on my iPod (twice at random in the last week!)  That track is "Silent House".

"Amsterdam" is not as good as either.  But there’s a killer change that touches your heart and makes you want to see the band live, to get ever closer.

Either you’re a flash in the pan, playing to everybody on Top Forty radio, or you’re playing to your fans.  Don’t worry about anybody beyond the ropes, maybe they’ll hear the sound and come ’round, but odds are they won’t.  Your only hope is your core supports you and testifies to its friends, dragging them to the gig (which must be priced low so they can go!), playing them your music.

We’ve been taught otherwise.  Everything in life is quantified, as if you carved a notch in the headboard every time you had sex.  But that’s not true.  Life is really a bunch of unconnected moments that we try to make sense of.  And we make sense of them by going to the gig, to be touched by life.

Now I wake up happy
Warm in a lover’s embrace

That’s what we all want.  To stop sleeping alone.  To be in bed with someone we trust, who loves us.

No one else can touch us
While we’re in this place

That’s the essence of not only relationships, but family.  We bond together to protect ourselves from outside influences, trying to bring us down.

So I sing it to the world
Simple message to my girl

Can you take a risk?  Can you reach out and try to connect?  You’d be surprised how few can, even though they’re dying to do so inside.  And so many of those who cannot substitute music.  The nerds, that’s what they’re getting from their fandom.  It’s a substitute for sex.  Not quite as good, still pretty great.

No more empty self-possession
Vision swept under the mat
It’s no New Year’s resolution
It’s more than that

This is not what you expected, probably not what you want, not even what I had planned.  But if one is willing to follow the music, if one is willing to be open and free, one can live a life of transcendence.

You can listen to the take of "Amsterdam" if you want, but start around 3:55 to hear "Message To My Girl": CROWDED HOUSE – Amsterdam & Message To My Girl (Split Enz) – House of Blues – Boston – 17 July 2010

$10 Ticket Specials

In the fall of 2008, it was a buyer’s market in automobiles.  Wall Street had crashed and not only were manufacturers in trouble, dealers were scrambling too.  After all, it may say Lexus on the dealership, but it’s owned by a third party, which is financing inventory and has to get rid of it or go bust.  Prices for autos were at rock bottom.  You could buy below wholesale.  Dealers were desperate.

But once those autos were gone, the deep discounts disappeared.  Possibly to never return again.  Unless we’ve got another economic crisis.

Automotive sales are now back up.  The business is much healthier.  There was a lot of pain along the way, but in order to succeed manufacturers have to create products the consumer wants to buy and not produce vehicles in excess of demand.  As a result of the continuing economic malaise, sales are not at pre-2008 levels, but they’re strong, because you can only drive the clunker for so long.

Live Nation has too much expensive inventory.  They’re blowing it out at sale prices.  Having already committed to payment, they want as many people at shows as possible, to pay for parking, food and merch.  But in a matter of months, all these dates will be played off.  Then what?

According to Live Nation, everything will be fine when the media stops complaining and superstars go back on the road.  This is like GM saying its problems were not endemic, that there was a huge demand for Pontiacs.  Or that Chrysler’s business model did not require a reduction in dealerships.  Or that Ford didn’t have to kill Mercury.  No one’s resting on their laurels in the car business, hell, Ed Whitacre keeps firing people at GM.  If only non-producing/non-visionary people were fired at Live Nation!  GM is fighting for its survival.  If only Live Nation admitted it was in a similar bind, it too would make the painful decisions to insure its continuation.

In other words, Live Nation has to present shows people want to see.  Not enough to fill a season at their amphitheatres or to satiate sponsors.  This is like car companies manufacturing for rental companies.  Who wants those pieces of shit in terrible colors when the rental company is through with them?  Furthermore, the rental companies are hurting too.  They’re buying fewer cars and holding on to them longer.  Which is why you now have a hard time getting a car on the road and have to pay if you cancel.  Business realities have forced discipline.  I see no discipline at Live Nation.  Only prayer.

Furthermore, one can ask whether Live Nation’s business model works at all.  Does centralized buying of national tours deliver good results?  Or do you need a local promoter, who knows the marketplace intimately, what competing shows are coming into town, what drains money from the marketplace.  Only the grandest of the grand, and that seems limited to GaGa and Swift, can appear any night at any price.  Everybody else is scrapping for dollars.

Yes, the economy is in the toilet.  Retail sales are off.  But nowhere close to the drop-off in concert attendance.  But the real question is, when the economy recovers, will people once again pay exorbitant amounts to hear live music?

You can’t drive a beater forever.  You want reliability.  And you’re willing to trade unanticipated repair bills on your old model for monthly payments on a new ride.  But do you need to see the classic rock acts again?  At inflated prices?

And what is a fair price?

Now that concerts are ten bucks, now that Live Nation has taught consumers you’re better off waiting to buy tickets, that you’ll not only get cheaper ducats, but oftentimes better seats, will the pre-2010 mania of pre-sales at inflated prices and an inflated secondary market return?

It’s like music is a fad.  And once it’s done, you can’t give away the merchandise.  Manufacturers wholesale it out to a jobber, who blows it out for pennies on the dollar.  Only today the jobber is Live Nation, which is devaluing its own inventory.

Price stability returned in autos by decreasing inventory with the knowledge that replacement is inevitable.  There’s way too much inventory in the concert sphere and we’ve never been able to replace the Beatles and we don’t even seem capable of replacing Bon Jovi!

So we’ve got old product or crap new acts and both are overpriced.  What exactly is going to make people shell out their dough to see live music?  Especially when they know if they just wait, the promoter will beg them to come, almost let them in free.

Furthermore, when they get inside they won’t be at a recently-refurbished multiplex, they won’t be watching in 3-D, they’ll be ensconced in decades-old shitholes that don’t need to be refurbished, but torn down.  Yes, the movie business is now tearing down the eighties and nineties multiplexes.  If you don’t have stadium seating, you can’t sell a ticket.  You want to see "Avatar" in IMAX 3-D.  But you go see the act in an environment that’s positively last century. Give Chrysler credit, it’s coming up with new products, not only a new Grand Cherokee, but Fiats.  And Ford revitalized the Mustang and Chevy came out with a new Camaro.  Niche products that enhance the brand.  We’ve got niche product in the music business, but we don’t let it seep into the mainstream, we’d rather jam the purveyor of the radio hit of the moment down people’s throats.  And it turns out no one wants to see these evanescent stars, certainly not in quantity, and not for long.

In other words, to survive Live Nation has to be developing acts, that flourish based on their music, not their media notoriety.  But that’s too slow!  But at what time do you retool for the future?  A future where fewer people want to go and everybody wants a deal!

You can’t get a deal on an Apple product.  Prices are sky high and people are lining up to buy them, just check yesterday’s earnings report.  There’s heat.  If you’re in the commodity business, like Dell, you’re in trouble, there’s just not enough of a profit margin.  And now I’ve switched metaphors, from cars to computers, but it’s all product.  But in music, we always sold something more, something elusive, we didn’t want to debase the concoction by calling it product, but that’s what it’s become.