Some people have had issues accessing the Lightshed Partners piece on Live Nation I referenced in the prior e-mail. Brandon Ross of Lightshed has given me permission to post the piece.

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“LYV Breakup Could Be Off the Table Following Summary Judgment Ruling”

Southern District of New York Judge Arun Subramanian ruled today on Live Nation’s motion for summary judgment in the DOJ case against the company. He granted LYV’s motion in part, most notably dismissing the claim that Live Nation’s promotion and booking business constitutes a monopoly. He also dismissed the allegation that Ticketmaster is a consumer-facing monopoly. However, portions of the case will proceed to trial, including DOJ claims that Ticketmaster is a venue-facing monopoly and a challenge to Live Nation’s policy of keeping amphitheaters exclusive to Live Nation promotion. We believe the practical reality is that a breakup of Live Nation/Ticketmaster is now off the table, without Live Nation promotion being tried. Dan Wall, LYV’s Executive Vice President, Corporate and Regulatory Affairs, echoed this view on X.

The first major surviving claim involves the alleged tying of Live Nation promotion to Live Nation-owned amphitheaters. This is not surprising given the back-and-forth during hearings. We also believe this claim is financially immaterial even in a downside scenario. Amphitheater per caps now approach $50 and carry very high margins. Incremental shows generate meaningful contribution profit, and the revenue opportunity from increased utilization likely exceeds any strategic benefit of limiting third-party promoters. In our view, opening amphitheaters more broadly could actually be positive to Live Nation’s revenue and AOI.

A more significant surviving claim concerns the DOJ’s allegation that Ticketmaster monopolizes ticketing services for major concert venues, particularly through long-term exclusive agreements, Of note it has been as has been standard practice in U.S. primary ticketing since the 1980s for most venues to enter into exclusive contracts. Nonetheless, the government’s market definition focuses on larger venues (8,000+ capacity, excluding stadiums) hosting national touring artists. Live Nation challenged this definition, but that issue now proceeds to trial. If Live Nation were to lose on this claim, the range of potential remedies would likely be behavioral rather than structural. Possible outcomes could include shorter contract durations, mandatory non-exclusive options, or carve-outs to exclusivity provisions.

Tomorrow, Judge Subramanian will rule on the admissibility of expert testimony in the states’ parallel case, including the damages expert. If the damages expert is excluded on summary judgment, the case would likely proceed as a bench trial rather than a jury trial, with the judge deciding both liability and remedy. Not having a jury trial would be a positive outcome for LYV. In any event, the judge will ultimately determine the remedy. A settlement remains possible.

LYV Breakup Could Be Off the Table Following Summary Judgment Ruling

https://lightshedtmt.com

The headlines are wrong. What you see in most of the headlines is how the judge refused to dismiss the case. But the real story is the judge granted summary judgment on the heart of the case, regarding promotion and booking constituting a monopoly. Summary judgment means the facts in the case are such that outcome can only be seen one way, and therefore there is no need for a trial.

There are only two questions left to be decided:

1. Live Nation’s amphitheaters being a monopoly… Worst case scenario LN has to let other companies promote there, no biggie.

2. Whether Ticketmaster monopolizes ticketing in large venues through long term agreements. The bottom line is that buildings love these agreements because of the advances, which go straight to their bottom line. Do not expect a decision that will eliminate these advances and therefore exclusive contracts.

So so far, contrary to the impression you get from so many news articles, Live Nation is winning, in a big way. No breakup is in the offing and any remedies look to be narrow in focus, behavioral.

The best words I’ve read on this subject come from Lightshed Partners. I suggest you read them:

“LYV Breakup Could Be Off the Table Following Summary Judgment Ruling”

LYV Breakup Could Be Off the Table Following Summary Judgment Ruling

(You need to log in via registration or Facebook or LinkedIn to read this post and you should…in order to talk about this subject from an informed viewpoint.)

Producer/engineer Elliot Scheiner has worked with everybody from Steely Dan to the Eagles. He and six others from behind the board are telling studio stories at the Sheen Center in New York through February 28th.

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/elliot-scheiner/id1316200737?i=1000750470920

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/07427dce-394f-430c-b659-cb2e54d56cf3/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-elliot-scheiner

What kind of crazy f*cked up world do we live in where it takes sixtysomething rockers from Ireland to light the way in a somnambulant music landscape?

One in which the Irish rockers were brought up on a divided island where the IRA fought for…

We haven’t had that spirit here since 1969.

But it may be brewing today.

What you’ve got to know is in the sixties, when Laura Nyro wrote “Save the Country,” a huge segment of the population thought that the U.S. would win the war in Vietnam in a heartbeat. After all, we were big bad America!

But the truth is a ragtag band of Vietcong defeated us by employing guerilla warfare as opposed to the carpet-bombing techniques evolved from World War II. And we see the same thing today, with drone warfare. That’s how battles are fought, along with cyber efforts. But there’s a cadre of the public who still believes they can fight the nation via guns. In the sixties, young people fought guns with flowers, and they ended up winning.

It took a while for America to wake up, for the majority to question not only the war in Vietnam, but the government itself. Will this happen again?

Or as U2 says in “The Tears of Things”:

“If you put a man in a cage and rattle it enough

A man becomes the kind of rage that cannot be locked up

No, it cannot be locked up”

In the sixties, we had manifestos. And that is what U2 has created with its latest issue of “Propaganda”:

Home

There’s a lot of information here. It’ll take you a while to read and digest it. It’s a far cry from the limited print on the back of early Beatle albums. But U2 knows that the cognoscenti talking about a short attention span economy have it all wrong, if you intrigue people, if you have something they want, they will invest untold time in it, ergo streaming series on Netflix, et al.

That’s the desire of a fan, to go deeper.

Also, in today’s world, you don’t depend on external outlets to spread your message, but yourself. If you’re relying on others, you’ve missed the plot. You gain an audience, build momentum and then superserve it.

As far as creating hit records?

Where are those records heard? A hit on terrestrial radio comes after the fact, and reaches only the brain dead out of touch with the real world that happens on the internet. If you think it’s about numbers, data, you’ve missed the point. It’s about MINDSHARE! How can you embed yourself into people’s brains such that they never forget you and your message?

Now in truth, many wince when U2 continues to push the envelope. They remember the “Rattle and Hum” years when Bono paraded as a deity and then tried to save the world.

But as Larry Mullen, Jr. says:

“Who needs to hear a new record from us?”

https://www.u2.com/news/title/u2–days-of-ash-new-ep-out-now/

He has a sense of humor about himself, there is self-knowledge, something that is lacking from today’s hedonistic acts who are all about the sell, all about becoming a brand… Then again, they were brought up in an era of relative prosperity wherein the goal was to be an empty vessel pop star like Mariah Carey, as if vocal ability alone was key.

No, if you want to be a true star, someone people believe in, you must have an identity, you must chart your own course, you must be able to say no. You must exist outside the community, the mainstream, so you can comment on it.

So U2 have dropped an atomic bomb. Bruce Springsteen did so before them, but he was the only one. Because Bruce’s roots are in the sixties, whereas today’s hitmakers’ are not.

And Bruce’s “Streets of Minnesota” is in the tradition of Woody Guthrie. Whereas U2’s “Ash” EP is definitely of the now. It truly makes one think, it’s inspirational.

For some.

As for those on the fence… This is the power of music, it seeps into your subconscious, it changes who you are without you even knowing it.

There’s a segment of the population that still believes in an America that no longer exists, one run by white men where minorities are denigrated and shunted aside. They long for a nation that has long since passed. And they hate those who live in the present, because they don’t want to contemplate their cheese being moved. They’d rather bury their heads in the sand.

And then there are those who decry technological advancements. For all the b.s. about the harm of social media to youngsters, there has never ever been a study that proves this! But oldsters cannot conceive of the fact that young people can connect and be friends with people they’ve never met in person. Furthermore, the oldsters who abhor social media are afraid of what’s on there, look askance at it, just like parents hated the Beatles. They don’t even want to go there. All these naysayers have never ever been on TikTok, for if they had…they’d find it more stimulating than the lives they keep telling youngsters to live off the grid, in a tech free world.

But the world has changed.

Advance hype no longer works. Give it to me right now or I’m not interested, I’ve got too many options. Give U2 credit for dropping this project with no advance notice, not even on New Music Friday.

We need leaders. And they anoint themselves. One of the problems with millennials is they don’t want to stand out, they want to be members of the group first and foremost. But it’s those who question authority and stand out who change the world.