I hate "American Idol", but I’ve got to give credit to Simon Fuller for creating something new, marrying music and reality TV to build a juggernaut.

And I give credit to Simon Cowell also.  Not because of "X Factor", but because he was willing to tell the truth on TV.  Doesn’t matter how mean you look delivering it, everybody knows the truth.  And nods their head in agreement.

In other words, Live Nation doing a deal with Groupon and rock stars tying up with Zynga may be profitable, but it is not innovation.  The real money comes in scanning the landscape and creating something new, oftentimes ahead of those you go into business with, never mind the public.

Read the "Vanity Fair" piece on Mark Pincus, the Zynga honcho.  Sure, he had an Ivy League education, but it wasn’t a straight run to the top.  He didn’t go to Wall Street and triumph, he bounced around, creating a boring company that he sold for double digit millions before he built Zynga, which not only throws off profits, but along with Facebook and Apple’s iOS devices is not only putting a huge dent in gaming consoles, but the publishers who create the games you play upon them.  Electronic Arts?  Sure, Activision has Call Of Duty, THEN WHAT?

If the gaming industry were the music industry it would be scapegoating Apple, Zynga and Facebook.  Sending lobbyists to Washington, D.C. to ensure its own survival.

But it turns out the public wants cheap games, with virtual elements, today anyway, tomorrow?

Outsiders tried to innovate in the music sphere.  But they were shot down.  But without Napster, there’s no iPod, never mind the iTunes Store.  Napster familiarized the public with MP3s.  And if you don’t think being able to tote around your music collection in your pocket is insanely great, I banish you to a lifetime of listening to 78s.

We’ve got no innovation in the music business.

It’s very simple.  We create something that sounds like what’s on the radio, oftentimes utilizing the same producers and writers who built those hits, and we try to get it on the radio and TV so that people will buy not only the hit, but the nine tracks surrounding it for an exorbitant price.

Want to truly blow up? Create something that DOESN’T sound like what’s on the radio.  That bespeaks the writers/players hearts.  That is incredibly good.  Wasn’t that the Nirvana paradigm?  It destroyed the past almost instantly.

And one must be willing to question the paradigm.

Maybe not only is the music free, but the gig is too.  Maybe there are many other ways to make money than selling recordings and tickets.  Maybe you have to play an online game to get your tickets, and in order to get ahead in that game, you’ve got to buy virtual goods.  The person who creates this paradigm is the true winner.  The outsiders always win in the music business. Build a music community based on a virtual game and performers and labels will beat a path to your door.

You build upon existing infrastructure.

What have been the recent tech breakthroughs…

Everybody’s Skyping.  Microsoft paid billions for the service.  If you don’t think there’s a future in virtual concerts, you’ve got no vision.

Location based services.  How about a game where you visit different locations to unlock the history of a band.  Maybe it’s GaGa day in L.A.  Get the whole city energized trying to pick up clues.  And maybe you pay for tips.  And maybe GaGa donates the money from selling these tips to charity.  A newer act might keep the proceeds, but you’ve got to leave some money on the table, do good, otherwise people hate you.  Hell, that’s one of the reasons people hate the Eagles, they’re so damn MERCENARY!

And where’s the new product built upon Apple’s FaceTime?

Square developed its reader AFTER Apple introduced the iPhone and iPad and Google the Android operating system.  Now anybody can take credit cards.  Interesting that no record company or musician came up with this idea.

Paperless ticketing IS innovation.  Ram it down people’s throats.  Because once they see they’ve got a chance for a good ticket at a fair price it makes all consumers happy.

Simulcasting concerts on YouTube is innovation, albeit inspired by the live FM broadcasts of yore.  But how can you make the experience more enticing?  Maybe by turning it into a game the winner of which gets tickets to next year’s festival?

And the Internet proves it’s all about access.  How about one night when every successful band plays an unannounced concert in a club.  Maybe release the names of the clubs where they’ll be performing ahead of time.  Imagine the lines at the clubs!  People will be camping out for days.  Tickets will only be available at the box office.  Or maybe these gigs take place in living rooms!

I’m not saying it doesn’t come down to good music.  But I am saying if you’re not thinking of new ways to exhibit and sell it, not only are you mired in the past, you’re sinking, because the old ways are evaporating.

Or how about an RIAA contest, paying a hundred thousand dollars to the person who comes up with the best idea?  That’s better than suing your users.

Instead of bitching that we can’t jet back to the past, contemplate how you can use the new tools to build something desirable.

That’s what the techies do.

"Ol’ Mark Pincus Had a Farm"

PepsiCo’s got a problem.  Its signature soft drink and the products of its Frito-Lay division make you fat.  And obesity has become a worldwide epidemic.  How to survive in the future?  Convince people that being fat is good, keep selling them what you always have, or reengineer your products for the future?

That’s the subject of an article in last week’s "New Yorker" about innovation.  The new CEO of PepsiCo is all about the future, looking ten years hence.  The company is consumed with making potato chips with less salt (did you know you can only taste a small percentage of it, even though you ingest it all, and PepsiCo has invented a new salt shape to get you to eat less but still be satisfied?), and snacks out of vegetables.  PepsiCo is trying to stay one step ahead of the public and the government, it wants to ensure not only its survival, but its continued triumph.

I woke up today to read that Hewlett Packard sold 20% fewer personal computers.  HP is the number one manufacturer, in case you didn’t know.  The company’s in trouble because the former CEO did not prepare it for the future, he was focused on short term results.  There was not enough development on services and the company’s lunch was eaten by Apple, a company that delivered a product so far ahead of its time Steve Jobs touted its magic more than any specific use.

Yes, the iPad is a triumph.  And will continue to be because its a marriage of great hardware and software, it just works, and Apple has cornered the market on so many components that the iPad is cheaper than competitors.  Could the iPad be the new iPod?  Owning almost all of the market?  Many analysts believe it could be.

Then we’ve got the music business.  Where record companies continue to sell CDs and the concert experience is overpriced and lousy.  Do you really think people will be buying CDs ten years in the future?  Do you really think people will continue to be abused by Ticketmaster and be happy buying overpriced lousy seats in the back when brokers get the good stuff up front?

Check Apple’s numbers.  Then check the music industry’s.

Looks like music is lacking the vision thing.  Not only in business, but music.  Where is the new music that’s cutting edge, that people didn’t even know they wanted, but love so much?

Give Ticketmaster credit for seat maps and dynamic pricing.  Even give Live Nation credit for its Groupon deal.

But what is Michael Rapino doing about bringing down costs?  We need a complete rearchitecting of deals.  Rapino says he’s got to overpay because everybody else does.  But as the biggest buyer, he’s got to institute discipline, he’s got to say no. Otherwise, not only is Live Nation hurt, so is the entire business.

And the acts scalping their own tickets and refusing to bake in Ticketmaster fees…  Is this the last tour you’re ever going to do?

As for the record companies…  Their only innovation is the 360 deal.  Give me more for less.  If you think that’s innovation, you’re probably happy when the airline charges you for bags.

And don’t listen to the public.  That’s screwed up music forever.  Not only callout research at radio, but formats and albums. The public doesn’t know the future, you forecast and deliver it and people come along.  Isn’t this how Netflix became a streaming company almost overnight?

At one point in time, forty years ago, music was so far ahead of the public, people couldn’t catch up.

Now music is behind.  Tell me why I should buy the music of this new act which is an imitation of the old?

Yes, our problems have finally come home to roost.

Apple killed the floppy.  Moved to USB.  The labels would be best to kill the CD and move to tomorrow’s dominant delivery method.  But they won’t even authorize Spotify.  Worried about losing revenue today, they’re hurting their prospects tomorrow. You’ve got to get the public to buy subscriptions, buying by track is an economic disaster.

There was a huge upgrade in movie theatres.  With stadium seating and better food and you go to the gig and you’re treated terribly and overpaying for food a ten year old doesn’t even want to eat.

Reasonably priced, innovative acts which are easily accessible and deliver a steady stream of product.  Albums are already passe.  Have you checked Katy Perry’s album vs. single sales?  As for those acts with albums that do sell, it’s not evidence of the sustainability of the format, it’s evidence that they’ve got fans, from whom revenue can be maximized, with a steady stream of new material as opposed to a spoon-fed album every two or three years.

If anyone could license music at a fair price we’d see amazing innovation.  That’s the power of tech, that’s the power of the younger generation, adept at computers.  But the old guard is holding them back, the old guard doesn’t want the future.

It’s like we’ve got a constant going out of business sale.  It’s like we’re still selling CRTs when the flat screen is now available and the wisdom of building streaming capability into the set, in other words making it Netflix-compatible, cannot be seen.

Doug Morris running Sony? Isn’t that like hiring your grandpa to replace Steve Jobs?

There’s no need to further delineate the failings of the old.

But it’s clear, there’s no focus on the future.

Maybe because with today’s entities it was never the employees’ money.

Steve Jobs started Apple.  He isn’t just an employee.  Would Irving Azoff overpay himself at Live Nation if it was HIS money and he was invested in the company’s long term future?

They pay with stock options in Silicon Valley.

In Hollywood, everybody wants cash up front.  Because they don’t believe in tomorrow.

The future ain’t gonna look like the past.  I guarantee it.

If you’re not prepared for what’s coming, you’re gonna be left behind.

P.S. Talk about being clueless regarding the future, the RIAA is lobbying for legislation to combat physical piracy.  Isn’t this like the CCIA (the computer association) lobbying to combat fake ribbons for dot matrix printers?

State lawmakers weigh anti-piracy bill to allow warrantless searches of CD and DVD makers

P.P.S. Goodyear is shifting from blimps to zeppelins.  Be clear, it’s the music business that’s afraid of change, not innovative companies.

Goodyear to replace fleet of blimps with bigger zeppelins

HP revenue outlook dims as PC sales drop 20%

Snacks for a Fat Planet: PepsiCo takes stock of the obesity epidemic

She should have made a deal with Spanx!

What do we know about Stevie Nicks?  She took Klonopin and got fat.  If Jennifer Hudson can do a deal with Weight Watchers and only enhance her career, why can’t Ms. Nicks do the same?  Show she’s one of the girls.  Dealing with aging as opposed to trying to be younger and younger.  She’s got to evidence she’s a member of her audience, those who buy her music.

But I would have given this album away.

That would have been the deal.  Spanx pays Stevie a couple of million and does this big campaign wherein if you buy some Spanx, you get a CD…maybe even a digital download too!  With live acoustic tracks!

Not that it has to be Spanx.  But when Stevie Nicks makes her best album in decades it’s a crime that no one will hear it.  Not a crime against humanity, but against her career.  The more people who hear your music, the bigger your tribe, the more people want to see you live, the more money you make.   Assuming you live in the twenty first century and realize it’s about total revenue, not what you make on records.

Don’t watch the video.  You’d think it’s still the eighties.  If any project called out for a fan video contest, it’s this.  With people having dressed like Stevie forever, with articles saying her old style is still influencing fashion today, she should have gotten her fan base energized to win a chance to appear on stage with her, maybe one person in every market.  And it’s young people who truly embrace YouTube, this was a way to skew young at no cost.

And the album I’m referring to has eight tracks at most.  There’s so much filler on the thirteen cut "In Your Dreams" you want to take it off before it’s done.  The filler ain’t bad, but it’s boring, and no one wants to be bored today.

But the winners truly win.

You’ve got to listen to "New Orleans".

Check out "For What It’s Worth" (not the Buffalo Springfield song).

But you’ll immediately be enraptured by "Secret Love".  It’s the opener, and like that critic on Amazon, she does sound like a baby, and the lyrics are too impressionistic and unfinished, but the track has got an amazing FEEL!

Hell, I would have released a four song EP.  Isn’t it about leaving people wanting more?  And if they really do need more, release another EP months later.

This album is over an hour long.  "Rumours" wasn’t close, and there were THREE songwriters.  There’s no excuse for "In Your Dreams" to be this long.

But I can’t stop listening to the winners.

Because they make me feel good.

And isn’t that the point of music?

And you can criticize me all day long.  But you’re missing the point.  It’s not about impressing everybody, it’s only about impressing THOSE THAT CARE!

All that scorched earth publicity, it reached too many people who could care less.  The project was owned by the media instead of the fans.  Play to the fans and they’ll spread the word.  Like I am.  I haven’t liked anything Stevie has done this much since "Bella Donna".  What, is she waiting for radio to play a track and MTV to air the video?  Who was in charge of this project?  Does he still use a dial-up connection?

"New Orleans" barely sounds like Fleetwood Mac.  It’s connected to the oeuvre of that group the way your cousin is related to you.  You can see the thread, but they’re different.  "New Orleans" is so intimate without being derivative of what Nicks has done previously that you not only feel good listening, you want to tell your buds all about it.  If you ever spent a Saturday afternoon home alone, with a vinyl record spinning as your mind drifts, you’ll like this.

And a musicologist could explain why "Secret Love" is so infectious.  From the very first note, you’re enraptured.  Taken away. Your feet tap, your head does a figure 8, you’ve got to play it again and again and AGAIN!

I’m not gonna point out the losers.

But I am gonna say if Stevie Nicks stopped playing to the stars and put one foot in front of another here on Earth, made eye contact with those who truly care, she could get one hell of a victory lap, one that might even last.

"New Orleans"

"Secret Love"

Official "Secret Love" video

And for a special treat, the original 1980 demo for "Secret Love", the basics are there, but Dave Stewart truly makes the new version magical

"For What It’s Worth"

P.S. "Rumours" is 39:58 long.  "In Your Dreams" is 1:04:39 long.

1. Adele "21"

Sales this week: 155,209
Percentage change: +26
Weeks on: 11
Cume: 1,554,291

This is the future of the mainstream.  A quality album of songs that sells itself.  Sure, there was set-up, but word of mouth is selling this album.  Otherwise, Katy Perry’s "Teenage Dream" would be number one, and it’s not.

In other words, airplay is no longer king.

When people could only be exposed on radio and MTV, record labels could drive sales of their priorities across broad demographics.  Now, so many have tuned out the mainstream and are waiting for the imprimatur of their friends, which causes them to check music out and buy it, become fans of it.

Adele is not perceived to be fake.  No one feels her music is being jammed down their throats.  People are coming to her. Becoming fans of her.

So, focus on getting the music right, not the marketing.  And your music doesn’t have to sound like everybody else’s, you don’t have to work with the usual suspects, it’s just got to be good.

And Adele can SING!  In order to overcome a lousy voice you need A+ material.  Too many people operating in the rock genre believe their attitude trumps material.  You have to be so good that those who are not fans of your genre take notice and are enraptured.  And those who can only sing but can’t write…  Your time is dying.  Either you’ve got to be a great interpreter or you’re gonna find no one cares, the usual suspects can make you a hit, but not a career.

2. Beastie Boys "Hot Sauce Committee Pt. 2"

Sales this week: 127,833
Debut

For fans only.

4. Fleet Foxes "Helplessness Blues"

Sales this week: 91,132
Debut

The previous record never died, it percolated in the marketplace, gaining more and more fans.  In a perfect world they’d write a hit, it’d be played on Top Forty radio and they’d be the new Crosby, Stills & Nash.  Alas, they haven’t written that song and Top Forty wouldn’t play it if they did.

A great story.  But the audience is limited by the quality of the act.  Pair Fleet Foxes with Richard Russell and maybe you’ve got a worldwide breakthrough.  Richard inspires you, makes sure you get it right, if you’ve got it to begin with.

5. Jennifer Lopez "Love?"

Sales this week: 82,895
Debut

No one really cares.  This is fashion.  And will be gone by next season.

6. Stevie Nicks "In Your Dreams"

Sales this week: 52,370
Debut

I don’t understand this.  This record was promoted like it’s 1980, but it’s 2011.

Hell, check out her Website, it positively SUCKS!

The Nicks Fix

All these old rockers have it wrong.  First and foremost you’ve got to know who your audience is.  Stevie Nicks needs to have her fans’ e-mail addresses, she needs to be in constant communication, creating a relationship, so people feel the bond. Today, with all your dirty laundry exposed online, you can’t speak from above down to the masses, no one cares.

I would have said an EP would have been enough.

And then she should have motivated her fans.  To the point where the mainstream media she’s courting finally pays attention.

And after playing to her core, Stevie should be broadening her audience not by playing to the usual suspects, but to those on the fringe, who don’t care or don’t know.  Stevie needs to play Bonnaroo.  Even show up and sing backups with Katy Perry. Have a sense of humor about herself.  Even show up in a new outfit.

She needs to fire her manager.  It’s a new world, not only about scorched earth media and booking tours.  It’s about being in the pits with your fans.  Stevie’s not.

But the album is better than anything she’s done in eons.  Critics don’t matter. Only fans do.

9. Mumford & Sons "Sigh No More"

Sales this week: 32,222
Percentage change: 0
Weeks on: 64
Cume: 1,409,325

Story of the year.

It’s all about authenticity.

People believe Mumford & Sons is real.  It’s not about hysteria, but music.  They underplay and undercharge, you’d think it’s 1970 all over again.

12. Foo Fighters "Wasting Light"

Sales this week: 27,079
Percentage change: -21%
Weeks on: 4
Cume: 368,709

Too much marketing.  They reached those who already care, but just turned off those who don’t.  If you think people read your name in the newspaper and then check out your music you probably still work for the newspaper!

The challenge is reaching those who’ve tuned out.  Used to be if you made it to the top of the heap, we all anointed you, bought your record and you lived like a king.

Now we just shrug and ignore you.

15. Alison Krauss & Union Station "Paper Airplane"

Sales this week: 22,966
Percentage change: -2
Weeks on: 4
Cume: 171,944

She’s bigger than Robert Plant.

She did it her way, didn’t sell out, isn’t beholden to country music, she’s got fans and no one’s got a bad word to say about her or her music.  She’s winning.

16. Katy Perry "Teenage Dream"

Sales this week: 21,839
Percentage change: -8
Weeks on: 37
Cume: 1,450,577

A singles act.

Her career is gonna live and die on hits.  Like Christina Aguilera, without hits, no one’s gonna want to see her, no one’s gonna want to buy her music.

Meanwhile, enough with the religious upbringing.  Katy wasn’t raised by outsider fundamentalists, but Hollywood hipsters. Before they became religious zealots, her parents were big on the scene.  Her mother dated Jimi Hendrix, her father was Mr. LSD.

And all that’s fine, but her constant trumpeting of her religious background, the restrictions, is b.s.  What next?  Chaz Bono claiming he was the scion of a right wing politician?

17. Paul Simon "So Beautiful So What"

Sales this week: 21,519
Percentage change: -8
Weeks on: 4
Cume: 150,885

I call bullshit.  This is the emperor’s new clothes.  The press is giving him a pass, pouring down accolades, when this is so far from Simon’s best work it’s laughable.

Classic Simon is the first solo album, and "Rhymin’ Simon".  Here there are too many beats, not enough memorable melodies and lyrics don’t make a record.

Come on Paul.  Give us another "Kodachrome".  Another "One Man’s Ceiling Is Another Man’s Floor".  Another "Duncan".

Meanwhile, did you see this?

Paul Simon, Rayna singing Duncan

This is why you go to the show.

If only Paul hadn’t tried to be so hip, if only he’d been challenged to be what he once was.  The press is fawning, but no one cares.

Once again, Paul needed Richard Russell.  Or at least Rick Rubin.

59. Cee Lo Green  "Lady Killer"

Sales this week: 8,686
Percentage change: 5%
Weeks on: 26
Cume: 346,381

Cee Lo may have a hit track, but it’s questionable how many fans he’s got.

____________________________

The Internet era is taking hold.  And what we’re learning is, it’s about the music.  It had better be really good, or you’re gonna be passed by.

It’s easier than ever to play, but harder than ever to be noticed.

You say you must make an album to make a statement, that your fans and reviewers demand it.  But all we really demand is great music.  If you can string ten quality tracks together, more power to you, but almost no one can.

And if you work with the usual suspects, you can have success, but it’s fleeting, there’s train-wreck value, people will come see you live once, but no one believes you’re real.  And now, more than ever since the sixties and seventies, you’ve got to be real to last.  Not only because tickets are expensive, but because there are so many other quality diversions.  Tell me again why I should endure your CD when I can be connecting with people on Facebook?

And connecting via Facebook, text, BBM and IM has a vitality too much music does not.  Just because something must be good, that doesn’t mean you need to labor over it for eons to perfect it.  Read Malcolm Gladwell’s article " Creation Myth" in last week’s "New Yorker", it’s not about getting one thing right, but constantly coming to bat.  Most people with successful ideas had TONS of ideas, you just only know about one or two.

Now, more than ever, it’s about individuality.  Being different from the crowd, assembling your tribe, which will spread the word for you.  Otherwise, you’re just news, here today, gone tomorrow.

Adele shows that the public will buy, the public will react.

As does Mumford.

Even the Fleet Foxes.

But people have no time for that which they see as substandard.

First and foremost, you must have fans.  And you don’t garner them from publicity.  That’s easy.  You just pay someone, they get you ink, but it’s meaningless.  Fans pay attention to friends.  And the way you reach these friends is by being incredibly good.  Because I’m not gonna pass on that which is subpar, because it’s going to hurt MY credibility.

You want it to be easy.  But it’s incredibly hard.  With all your warts now visible.  Can you leave the mistakes in the recording? Can you go on HDTV without getting your teeth fixed, without plastic surgery?

It’s hard to stand up there naked, for all to see and pick over.

But don’t be scared.

We’re drawn to your humanity.  That’s the secret of Adele and Mumford’s success, that’s the key to legendary, lasting music. Whereas Katy Perry is pure train-wreck, a hit single to be devoured and forgotten.

Either you’re a pro or you’re not.

A pro practices.  A pro knows it’s not about the haircut, but what’s in the grooves.

And a pro can be a studio rat, but we’re really interested in artists.  Artists test limits, have something to say.

Artists triumph.

Not the very first day.

But they always win the race.

If you need instant gratification, go on "American Idol", "The Voice" or "X Factor".  Be grist for the mill, part of the machine.

But you can’t get to the top level of a video game in one day.

And you can’t make it into the musical pantheon fast.  It’s incredibly slow.  Even though to those just joining the bandwagon, it seems like you made it overnight.

Artists sign with major labels because they want insurance.

They make albums for the same reason.

Like the antiquated labels, they cling to the old as opposed to experimenting with the new.  It’s easier to mail out your CD, pay a publicity agent and wait for something to happen than record a great track that sells itself, even if it’s not for sale!

Everybody’s lonely.  Everybody wants to feel alive and connected.  The artist’s job is to fill this need.  To bond the listener to him or her.

When you focus on the intermediaries, make deals with corporations, you’re missing the point.

Ignore your handlers, the agents, the managers, they don’t know.  Otherwise, they’d be the artists.  But they’re not.

Only you have the power, only you have the insight, only you have the answers.

Go into your bedroom, fire up your computer and create something so good that all you’ve got to do is post it online and it blows up.  Something great that requires no radio, no marketing.

It’s completely possible.

But very few are that good.

Today you’ve got to be that good.