Verizon’s Blackberry Bold 9930 unveiled early thanks to website blunder

This is what happens when you try to keep one foot in the past. You’re navigating the future with one arm tied behind your back.

Someone at Verizon posted this video by accident. The phone’s not out yet. But if you own RIM stock, let this be a heads-up, sell it immediately.

Let’s see. You can keep the keyboard, now BIGGER! That’ll appeal to road warrior businessmen at the mercy of IT departments that won’t allow them to use their iPhones. Oh, don’t you know that iPhones and iPads are infiltrating corporations? You can’t keep a good thing down.

So, if you’re forced to use a BlackBerry, this one’s not bad.

But as anybody using the touted software on these devices will tell you, it positively stinks. Slide your finger across the trackpad and you’re on a completely different screen. You become so frustrated you want to throw the device against the wall.

And the tiny font… Does anybody with good eyes even use a BlackBerry? That menu that allows you to forward, respond, etc…that comes up over your e-mail. I’ve found no way to enlarge it, it’s a step backward.

As for the touch screen… That’s like making a scratchable CD. Yup, let’s not give up the look and feel of vinyl, let’s make CDs huge and vulnerable so people won’t be scared of new technology. Huh?

One can argue strongly that one prefers a physical keyboard to a virtual one. But if you think you’re going to win this war, you believe vent windows are coming back in automobiles. Vents disappeared when A/C became ubiquitous, and manufacturers loved the savings. Physical keyboards impinge on screen real estate. Yes, Palm tried a slide-out version with its Pre, but it was criticized as tiny and flexible, a toy.

You can’t do both.

If RIM were smart, and it’s not, it would focus on the one thing it does best, e-mail. Sell its e-mail service for other phones. Yes, you can get this experience if you’ve got an exchange server. Ever speak to someone with an iPhone and an exchange server? Service is awesome.

We’re going to touch screen phones sans keyboards. But e-mail on the iPhone and Android can be iffy. Instead of fighting an unwinnable battle, RIM should enhance e-mail on these devices. Otherwise they’re TiVo fighting the DVR. TiVo is better, if only they’d licensed their IP at a low cost and made money, instead of resorting to lawsuits and ending up with a shrinking customer base.

Meanwhile, the dirty little secret of what’s selling phones today is apps. And BlackBerry’s got few and they don’t work so hot. And try navigating them on the tiny touch screen of the Bold 9930. You’d almost think this video was posted to Funny Or Die. When the guy touch navigates the camera I about burst out laughing. You expect me to DO THAT!

Let this be a lesson to you. If you want to survive, look in only one direction. The future. Trying to placate past customers is what got the record business in trouble. Believing their clients were Wal-Mart and other physical retailers as opposed to end users who can now be marketed to directly. It’s like Fisher Body placating buggy whip companies. It’s like HP refusing to develop inkjet printing, keeping us all in the dot matrix world because we’re inured to typewriter ribbons. Huh?

And what is flabbergasting is the mainstream press falls for all this. Doesn’t call a spade a spade. If you don’t think the BlackBerry is toast, you still expect Vanilla Ice to make a comeback. Or Shaggy. Or Rebecca Black.

One hit and they’re done.

RIM’s one hit was mobile e-mail. Maybe they can drill down and survive on this, but it’s doubtful. To believe a device that’s good at mobile e-mail and nothing else will survive and triumph is to believe that the RAZR is today’s perfect phone. And look what happened to Motorola.

You can’t surf future trends by being beholden to the past. Apple killed the floppy and has almost killed the hard disk and is doing a good job of killing the CD/DVD. And Apple is the second most valuable company in America and the record companies, supposedly purveyors of the cutting edge, are being sold at fire sale prices, run by septuagenarians like Doug Morris who believe more Top Forty hits can solve everything.

Hogwash.

Dear Bob,

I gave a thematically similar address at NARM in May, which I have attached.

To me, the opportunity for musicians is to view HTML 5 and the hypernet as canvases for making new music products to replace CD/mp3. To have any value, these products need to go miles beyond what Google did for Arcade Fire and the Beastie Boys. HTML 5 begs for people to get really creative, so mash-ups and collaborations may be part of the mix.

Take care,

Roger

Roger McNamee
Moonalice & Elevation

(more…)

Roger McNamee at The Paley Center For Media

Now I know how he closed Bono.

McNamee is incredibly convincing in this video. And you should watch it. It’s got all the excitement we used to have in music that’s gone now, and according to McNamee, a musician himself, with the journeyman band Moonalice, it might not be coming back.

But what got me to watch was the quote about Microsoft…

Microsoft’s share of Internet-connected devices has gone from 95% to under 50% in three years.

But it’s not only Microsoft that’s in trouble, but Google too. Because people just don’t search in the same way on mobile devices, and that’s where the action is increasingly going to be. And right now, that world is controlled by Apple. McNamee decimates Android. Because of the spamware. He tells you to run right out and buy an iPad, because Apple might just own that market like the iPod.

So where does that leave musicians…

My number one e-mail is how do I get rich? Maybe there’s just not that much money in music. As McNamee says, the only guarantee is that tomorrow’s going to be different from today. Accept that.

And listen to him go on about the possibilities re HTML5. Opportunity is a knockin’!

But apps are not music. Not that music apps can’t be profitable, McNamee talks about one that allows you to practice silently that he thinks is going to generate cash. But creating hit music? Tech doesn’t help much there.

We’re gonna go through a massive transition. Enablers, formerly called record labels, will be all about nurturing bands. Artist development will return. Because the marketplace demands it. There’s just not enough money in polishing turds and throwing them against the wall. If you want to make any money at all, you’ve got to play to last.

So, you throw out most of the people at the label.

You can throw out the distribution people, that’s for sure.

And probably promotion too. Radio’s power is fading. Not overnight, but radio just allows you to reach a greater mass quickly. Want to reach a great mass quickly? Shoot somebody, you’ll be all over the news. Want to have a lasting band? Radio is last. Radio only wants to play that which sounds like what they’re already playing. If you’re new and different, radio wants nothing to do with you, it can’t risk, there’s too much money involved. You’ve got to go straight into the wilderness, where the fans are.

And right now, you probably suck. It takes 10,000 hours to become world class. Do you think the whole world’ll be interested before you put in that amount of time?

So we’re gonna have trusted talent scouts. That develop talent.

This has been Jimmy Iovine’s route to success.

As for Doug Morris… Doug doesn’t develop anything left of center. He looks for immediate reaction at radio. Which is why the catalog of Mo Ostin’s Warner Brothers is worth much more than that of Atlantic.

But both of these men are about getting rich personally. Music is second. And that’s why they won’t rule the future. The future of music will be ruled by trusted partners who put the music first, who leave some money on the table. Music is not TMZ, it’s not publicity, it’s not train-wreck. It’s about the notes, not hype.

So he who can find and nurture talent will get a greater chance at landing the next talent.

Let’s revisit this.

1. You’ve got to pluck someone from obscurity. For the past twenty years, music has been about major labels closing on talent they all want. It’s rare that a label finds something nobody else wants and develops it, they’re all shopping at the same store. In the future, you’re going to have to be a visionary, finding talent way before anybody else can hear it. That’s your expertise, your big checkbook is secondary to your ears.

2. You’re going to have to invest time. Sure, lock up the act, but don’t expect to be profitable for years, a number of albums down the line. Not only because it takes that long for fans to find a band, but it takes that long for a band to find its signature sound. Led Zeppelin was not Jimmy Page’s first band. Elton John, the Eagles, so many of the classic acts were kicking around finding themselves before they hit it big. Align yourself early, deliver your expertise.

3. Musicians. You’ve got to be in it for the long haul. If you’ve got a Plan B, you’ll never be successful at Plan A. And success will come more from doing it differently than imitating the mainstream. The mainstream is an ever-decreasing sideshow.

Watching this video you can see music business people are no match for techies. If it comes to 1’s and 0’s, you’re better off hiring someone familiar with them. The only expertise music people have is music, that’s it. Everything else has been stripped away, stolen.

There’s so much good stuff here it’s mesmerizing. I watched this the way I used to watch bands. When bands were all about the cutting edge and the truth.

McNamee can’t be a world class musician because he’s got a day job. He thinks it’s about tech, but it’s really about music, Moonalice’s just isn’t good enough.

But now we’re only interested in great music. And until you’re that good, expect to be ignored.

Watch Roger talk about the music business.

And marvel when he gives out his e-mail address.

Isn’t it amazing that you can reach McNamee and Steve Jobs but not a single music business honcho?

That says it all.

You’ve got to function like you’re living in the now. And do that which no one else can do.

Today’s generation grew up on MTV and "Cribs" and a ton of wealth. But that’s all evaporated. All that’s left is the tunes themselves. You’ve got to be incredible. You’ve got to hook up with trusted partners who help you be so.

Watch this video. You’ll get more out of it than any meeting at a major label. Because they’re living in the past. McNamee is owning the present and doing his best to live in the future.

McNamee’s analysis of the music business begins at 44:11, after he owns the disaster of Palm. Can you imagine a music executive owning any failure? (Pull the solid bar slider forward to get to this point.)

We Must Be Superstars

I cannot stop thinking about this article.

The dirty little secret is it’s hard to read on a computer screen. An iPad too. The backlighting makes it so our eyes glaze over, we scan for the essence and then move on. Ever read the same article in the newspaper, the physical edition, after reading it originally online? It’s about the same thing, but it’s completely different. You glean additional facts, sometimes you even glean complete concepts that eluded you online.

And I’m not trying to be a Luddite here. But right now, "The Huffington Post" and other sites win because only the headline looks good online. Will this be forever? Probably not. Technology marches forward. But for now, books read much better in E Ink than on an iPad. Which may be one reason they outsell them in the former format. At this point, Kindles and Nooks are so cheap you can own both, an iPad for those dazzling photos and effects, and an E Ink device for real reading.

All of this is to say people e-mailed me this article and I didn’t get it until I read the version in the physical magazine.

Yes, "New York" is no longer just a lowest common denominator service magazine. It’s the opposite of Arianna Huffington’s site. Instead of moving downscale, it’s moved upscale, they’ve even got Frank Rich now, and if you’re not subscribing, you’re missing out.

Which brings us to this article…

There’s too much in it. It reads like both an attack and a defense and as a result the main point gets buried. Which is the reason all those songs on the Top Forty are self-aggrandizing is because they’re made by oppressed minorities who latch on to braggadocio to boost their self-esteem as they try to navigate a world stacked against them. Yes, women, gays and African-Americans. They own Top Forty and they’re all oppressed:

"Another change that’s swept through the charts since 1980 is the steady disappearance of white men. In 1980, more than half the artists at No. 1 were white men; in 2010, the only white guy in the top spot was Eminem. Today’s pop world is female, African-American, and Latino, dance-pop and hip-hop and R&B. The audiences it’s usually associated with are female, African-American, Latin, gay, and young. And the music running through the charts is filled with qualities that look a lot like the aspirations and survival strategies of people who’ve felt marginalized-people for whom ego and self-worth can be existential issues, not just matters of etiquette."

Now this writer goes on to attack rock music. Which I think is missing the point. The point is Top Forty is a niche, and the mainstream doesn’t realize that what was Top Forty back then, the best of the best, is all about club tracks now.

One can also argue that the club rules. In the gym, in the car, at the actual club, where people dance to records whereas they used to dance to bands. Club music is innovative and vital, risk-taking, outsiders don’t care what the mainstream thinks of them. Whereas white males veer from the center of the highway and they’ve got to apologize. Which is why Bon Jovi smiles and says nothing offensive and can’t sell a record and the denizens of the Top Forty are constantly saying outrageous things and being arrested. They’re just bringing their marginalization to the fore.

So where does this leave us?

To conclude what the Tea Partiers want to ignore. That our country is no longer dominated by white males, at least not culturally. They rule in the boardroom, but out in the street a generation weaned on a rainbow of colors on MTV has interracial friends and is nowhere near as racist as its forebears, that’s how Obama got elected.

It appears if you’re not an oppressed minority, if you’re a white male, you’ve got to run from the mainstream to make it. Play on your emotions, not be a cartoon. Which is why Bon Iver gets all that press.

But will Bon Iver ever be as big as Katy Perry?

Probably not. Katy speaks to all women. Bon Iver speaks to a subspecies of males willing to own their emotions.

I’m still thinking about this article.

Read it.