The New Music Problem

We want to know what to listen to.

Once upon a time, labels, radio and press performed this function. They drove us to the best of what was available, which wasn’t very much. The tunes were professionally recorded, sometimes boring or repetitive, but the scene was easily digestible, you could know every record available, you could find the gems.

Now we’re confronted by chaos.

The labels say to leave it to them. But unlike decades ago, labels don’t come close to signing the best of the best, they just sign what sells.

And what sells is what’s on the radio. And what’s on the radio is dance music.

So if you’re into dance music, laced with a bit of hip-hop, you’re living in aural nirvana. The system has become incredibly refined, tune into the Top Forty station and you’ll be plugged right in.

But naysayers are plentiful. In an era where more people are making more music in more genres, and it’s literally freely available, many reject the lowest common denominator cynicism of the labels and radio. They want music that touches their souls.

Touching souls. That’s a fascinating concept. A study was done to discover what generated online virality. It turns out facts barely matter, we want to share emotion. Music does this best, but we’re doing a bad job of sharing our tastes.

The problem is we’ve only got time for great. Overloaded with input, we graze for superiority in a sea of mediocrity, and it’s nigh near impossible to find.

There are tireless self-promoters, telling us to listen to their stuff.

There are fans whose taste is so eclectic, nobody could identify.

And now that everyone’s got a voice online, press is irrelevant.

What is the way out?

Matching listeners with superior tunes.

Note, this is different from any time in modern history. There were tons of mediocre tunes on the radio in the sixties and seventies. Video sold crap in the eighties. But there was a limited universe, it worked. You bought the second-rate album, played it ad infinitum and went to see the band live because you didn’t know any better.

Purveyors believe we still don’t know any better.

But we do.

The techie solution is data. This is the flaw of Pandora. Data has about as good a chance of delivering what we want to hear as a computer has of finding us a mate. Or to make it even crazier, dating sites have found out people don’t know what they’re looking for, they say they want tall blondes but they keep clicking on the profiles of short brunettes.

I didn’t make that up. That’s true. The breakthrough in online dating is showing you what you click on, not what you say you want.

But although I do know people who’ve gotten hitched after meeting on dating sites, most people are frustrated, they don’t find Mr. or Ms. Right. Why do you expect a computer to deliver the right song?

So it’s clear that recommendations will have to come from human beings.

But the dirty little secret is that recommendations can’t be tuneouts.

Contemplate this. You can only forward MP3s and links of songs that not only you like, but that you guarantee the recipient will like. That’s the mark of a great connector, he knows what you need.

But since so many people are recommending less than perfect tracks, we end up tuning out all recommendations.

But upping the recommendation game also pisses off the musicians. What we’re saying is that most players don’t get to play. That we’re not interested. There are fewer slots than there are in the NFL or NBA. At any given time there’s not a hundred tracks worthy of attention. Actually, there are barely any mass appeal tracks.

And what we’re looking for is mass appeal.

This is another secret. We want music to bring us together. We want to listen to what other people are listening to. Maybe not everybody, but the other metalheads, country addicts… And if we decide to cross genres, we want to hear guaranteed good stuff.

The more stuff there is, the less we’re interesting in hearing.

We won’t sit through an entire YouTube clip if it doesn’t grab us immediately. And we won’t sit through your song either.

Don’t shoot the messenger. Yes, it may take us a few listens to get your song, but no one is going to put in that time anymore.

The way out of our dilemma is for musicians and tastemakers to collectively recommend only the best of the best. Not the best of the week, or the best of the month, but stuff so good you want to hear it all the way through and play it again.

We live in a land of winners and losers.

Yes, there are endless niches.

But only a few will win.

Most songs on iTunes go unbought.

Most songs on Spotify go unplayed.

And no matter how much you promote them, we still won’t listen. Because we only have time for that which is incredible.

It’s demoralizing, I know.

But when I hear something that great, I want to tell everybody. And so do you.

But it’s so hard to find greatness amidst the cacophony.

That’s the music business challenge of today. Delivering greatness to those who want to hear it.

So far, no one’s taken up the challenge.

Complete Crystal Harris Interview

Via the magic of YouTube:

At 5:42 Howard asks about being "imprisoned" in the Playboy Mansion, unable to escape.

At 1:17 Howard asks how Crystal escaped.

Rules

FRUSTRATED BANDS WILL SIGN WITH MAJOR LABELS

Portugal. The Man just did.

The major doesn’t want you if you’re brand new, not unless you can be molded into a Top Forty superstar. But they do want to cherry-pick anybody with significant success.

Most bands make this deal. They’re sick of being broke.

If you want to undercut the major label, illustrate to these bands how you can get them paid, how you can grow their careers. Until we build an alternative structure the majors will always skim the cream off the top.


ESTABLISHED PLAYERS ARE INTERESTED IN THE MONEY

Everybody over fifty, and the mainstream music business is run by people over fifty, especially in the live arena, is about the money. Don’t come to them with a cool idea unless it can put A LOT of money in their pockets. Same thing with the over-fifty bands. They know they’re never going to have another hit, they’re just working to feed their lifestyles.

CONCERT TICKET PRICES ARE NOT GOING DOWN

It’s just too expensive to tour. And now that recording revenue has tanked, this is the best way to pay your bills.

Add up the cost of gas, rentals, hotel rooms…and you see that it’s almost impossible to support a cheap ticket. If you’re charging next to nothing you’re sleeping in your van or someone’s supporting you.

Sure, stars can lower prices 10%. But the concept of a show being an alternative to a movie are done. Except for developing acts in their own backyards.

CONCERT ATTENDANCE IS NOT GOING TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY

It’s hard to build superstars and going to the show is a hassle.

This is the same problem facing the film business. There are fewer attendees, grosses just go up because of ever-increasing admission charges. The movie business painted itself into a corner with its tent pole extravaganzas. The business has become marginal. All the action is on screens at home.

The music business did the same thing. Building superstars in the last century that can no longer be built with modern apparatus. It’s impossible to reach everybody and the price of entry is almost nil and everybody is sick of the usual players.

People say they’d go to the show if they’d just known about it. This is a fiction, like dreaming of screwing an old acquaintance. The reality is you don’t want to pay, you don’t want the hassle, you don’t want to spend the time. Sure, attendance can be increased marginally, but it depends primarily on the development of new acts that last, and that’s troublesome.


LIVE NATION

There’s no magic bullet, no scale.

But this is not only the dilemma of the concert world, it’s the same problem plaguing the entire music business.

Used to be you could record relatively inexpensively and sell at an inflated price around the world.

Now recording is cheaper than ever but returns are less than ever for recordings.

If you want to get rich, go into a business that scales. Which is why the best and the brightest go into tech.

In other words, if you’re going into music so you can make double digit millions, you’re delusional.

ARTISTS ARE LUDDITES

The audience is so far ahead of the artists it’s not funny. It’s the artists complaining about getting paid and the death of radio and the crumbling of the old system.

Just like label executives used to spend a day in a retail outlet, where the rubber meets the road, artists should be made to surf the Net all day every day for a week. With a limited budget. Until artists see the world through their customers’ eyes, they’re screwed.

THERE’S ONLY ONE VICTOR ONLINE

To think MySpace can be resuscitated is to believe the Zune can make inroads on the iPod, which is dying by the way.

Don’t enter someone else’s online sphere unless you can kill your competitor. Look at Bing, a money drain on Microsoft, it pays for market share and does nothing better than Google. Whereas Xbox triumphed by being ahead of its competitors, having games its competitors did not, and focusing on multiplayer/online gaming. Xbox started out as me-too, but was executed well and then built upon to triumph. Kinect puts its competitors to shame. And Microsoft embraces hackers on Kinect. You should do the same (Sony?)


JUST BECAUSE YOU’RE POPULAR TODAY, THAT DOESN’T MEAN YOU WILL BE TOMORROW

Everybody’s a grazer, everybody’s looking for the next big thing, but most people don’t stay there. This is a problem in both music and online. In music, the majors believe a hit today means a career tomorrow. Online players believe eyeballs today mean money tomorrow. They’re both wrong.

Be in it for the long haul. Think about keeping your audience, how you can get it to evangelize your product.

_____________________

Now there are exceptions to all these rules above.

1. There are twenty and thirtysomethings revolutionizing the business. Too many of them are in tech, looking for the big payout. Those who will triumph will put money last. If you’re not willing to make $40,000 a year five years out, please give up. Everybody believes there are riches in music, from the artists to the developers, there are not. It’s a relatively small pie, not growing by much, divided by a plethora of players. Unlike online sites, different acts can coexist. But it’s incredibly hard to be dominant. Media gives the illusion that musical stars are rich. No, bankers are rich. And techies.

2. Learn how to play. Mark Zuckerberg was a wizard coder long before he built Facebook. What makes you believe you can triumph in the musical world after playing your guitar for a month?

3. Flash fades, substance lasts. If all you’ve got is the two-dimensional hit, you won’t last long. You’ve got to have a story. There’s got to be depth. It’s less about marketing than music. If people can’t keep discovering and being rewarded listening to your music your career is going to be short.

4. Most of the execs running the music business are old, many within ten years of retirement, if it takes that long. Who will run the business in the future? Yup, within ten years, Doug Morris will be gone. Clive Davis is essentially gone already. Ahmet died. Irving Azoff is in his sixties. Don’t think so much about beating these guys today as much as replacing them tomorrow.

5. It took eleven years to get a legal Spotify. Change comes very slowly in the music business. If you’re into changing the business, be in it for the long haul. Whereas musicians can change the landscape overnight. That’s the power of art.

6. Just because you’re a big music fan, that does not mean you’re entitled to a job in the music business. Just because you follow the NBA or NFL do you think you’re entitled to work for the Lakers or the Cowboys?

7. It’s almost impossible to stay in the music business. It’s a long term play for almost no one. To triumph you must have sharp elbows and brilliant insight. If you think the guys running it now are stupid, you’re wrong, you are. They might be acting out of self-interest, they might be all about the money, but what they know could put you back in kindergarten.

Crystal Harris On Howard Stern

Great radio keeps you tuned in after you’ve reached your destination.

Last night I could not turn Howard Stern off, even though it was 1:30 AM and I’d been up since 7 and I was where I wanted to be.

Now I’m a bit pissed at Howard. Because he went soft on Gaga. I know, I know, if we were on the phone he’d tell me he had no choice, this is what you’ve got to do to get A-listers, be nice, not be yourself.

But Howard is himself with the B-listers, the downtrodden, the freaks, his metier, and what is revealed is an often fascinating look at the human condition, but yesterday’s interview with Crystal Harris, the fiancee of Hugh Hefner who abandoned him, was positively stupefying.

Equally stupefying is today’s coverage of the interview. All the press focuses on the length of Hef’s performance, even though the video posted online belies the notion that he truly lasted only two seconds, Crystal was joking.

But she was not joking about being under house arrest. Which made none of today’s tabloid stories. That the Playboy Mansion is a glorified cult, run with an iron fist by Hef himself, his dictates enforced by a team of security guards.

You see Crystal Harris had to escape. During a film. Via a ruse, stating that she needed to go out and run an errand.

There’s a fiction, reinforced by the mainstream media, that the rich and famous live a better life than you and me. That they’re happier, have better sex, have somehow transcended the human fallacies that trip the rest of us up.

But Hef is insecure and controlling and 85. The media doesn’t question the Playboy founder, it just goes along with the story. A whitewashed version of the truth.

Yes, Hef has these girlfriends, but it’s for show. He doesn’t sleep with them, but he tells them how to live their lives, and pays them handsomely for the privilege.

It’s one step away from prostitution. Yet this guy is glorified as opposed to excoriated.

We hear all about these girls sold into slavery in the rest of the world, but when it happens in Holmby Hills, Hef gets a pass because he’s rich and famous. Huh?

I know, I know, bankers and politicians are screwing up this country much more than Hugh Hefner. And that Roger Clemens is not the problem with America. But can we stop with the glorification of the lifestyles of these people, stop selling the fiction that if you’re rich and famous your problems are solved? Can we stop making everybody feel so inadequate?

Crystal Harris may be attractive, but if I had to listen to her every night I’d slit my wrists. A brain surgeon she is not. But if you’re a great conversationalist and not beautiful everybody thinks you’re a lesbian and you’ve got a hard time getting ahead.

I could make a list of the idiots I’ve encountered backstage who can barely hold up their end of a conversation. They may be able to sing, but their handlers come up with the songs and their lives are an endless parade of drinks, drugs and cartoons.

And what does Crystal Harris do now? Without an education. Most people are famous for minutes. What does Snooki do when she’s thirty five? How about Ke$ha?

Our values are completely screwed up. And no one’s speaking the truth. Because they’re complicit in the sham. They employ Hef and Snooki to sell advertising. These "news" outlets are as irresponsible as our government. They’re not looking for truth, not even listening to Howard Stern’s broadcast before they put fingers to keyboard. They’re just selling.

I’m not saying I’m against sex, or beauty, or money.

But I am against that which restricts free will, false imprisonment whether it’s done by the military or Hugh Hefner.

You see Howard Stern is an outsider. Loathed by the mainstream.

And he’s in pursuit of one thing only, the truth.

He’s not Piers Morgan, obfuscating and kissing butt to save his job.

Nor is he Anderson Cooper, playing the role of serious journalist while in pursuit of ratings at all costs.

To live outside the law, you must be honest. And that’s what Howard is.

This Crystal Harris interview needs to be heard. If so, there’d be outrage. The Playboy empire would crumble, the Mansion would be closed.

Instead, the mainstream props it up, it’s a good story, it sells newspapers and TV shows, it generates clicks.

And you wonder what’s wrong with America…