Nate Silver

1. Breakout Star Of The Election Season

You don’t have to be running to win. You don’t have to be number one. Concentrate on being a member of the scene and surviving.

2. Paid His Dues

We’re so used to here today, gone tomorrow. Young people thrust into the spotlight who then disappear. Rebecca Black left high school to be home-schooled. College is seen as anathema to success. But those who last tend to have paid dues far from the spotlight for a long time. It’s what they did when no one was paying attention that counts. The seasoning. Whether it be reading books, listening to music, studying economics… If you’ve got no background, you’ll be exposed as being two-dimensional very soon.

3. Transferable Skills

My inbox is littered with the career questions of those who can no longer work in the music business. They say they’re stuck, there’s nothing else they can do. I always point them to the wisdom of “What Color Is Your Parachute,” the career bible. Richard Bolles speaks of transferable skills. Nate Silver started off in baseball statistics. It was an easy, but unforeseeable to most, switch to polling.

4. Established Players Hate Newcomers

If you think kissing the ass of established players is the road to success, you’re sorely mistaken. You know you’re on the right path when those in power are excoriating you, as so many did to Mr. Silver. It’s almost impossible to get the attention of bigwigs. If they’re coming down off their roost to confront you…you know you’re winning. If you’re just a sailor, taking orders, you’re going to go down with the ship.

5. Opportunity

It doesn’t come from marketing, but getting it right. Nothing markets you better than excellence.

6. Nerdom

There’s been a war on intelligence in the U.S. Education too. But to watch Nate Silver in action is to love him. Because he doesn’t primp for the camera, he was on Bill Maher with a bad shave. He wasn’t media-trained. He was like that guy next door you grew up with, maybe played with when you were in single digits, but were never best friends with. But you’re on board with him as an adult, because you know he paid his dues, that this is really who he is.

7. Methodology

There’s an outcry that “Billboard” has changed its charts. By hewing to the old model, you’re just ripe to be overrun by he who develops the new. People criticized Silver’s methodology incessantly. But it was he who turned out to be most right.

8. Track Record

Republicans forget that it was Silver who said they were going to triumph in 2010. People like those who are beholden only to themselves, who call it as they see it as opposed to playing team ball. Today’s media superstars, the ones we’re enraptured by, are not team players, they’re loners, outliers. To the degree people are angry with them, it’s because these winners did not follow the safe path, did not do what was expedient, like the haters.

9. Publicity

Nate Silver’s reputation was built online, surfer by surfer, year by year. You think it’s all about the big time media performance. Getting on late night TV, on the radio. Mainstream media opportunities mean less than ever before. Furthermore, the audience is sophisticated, people know they’re being manipulated. I heard about Silver from my friend who follows politics religiously for years before I started paying attention. We take our cues from those who are deeply invested in a topic, like my friend. The information may sit there for years, until a trigger comes along and we too get on the bandwagon. I kept hearing about the “FiveThirtyEight” blog. And when I saw the link on the homepage of the “New York Times,” the bell went off. I read Mr. Silver and became a convert. I respect the nerds, they’re going to inherit the earth.

10. Selling Out

Yes, Mr. Silver is now aligned with the “New York Times.” But he paid his dues solo, and the news outlet came to him. Stop pitching and start fielding. If you’re excellent, people will find you. Furthermore, Mr. Silver has become bigger than the “Times” itself. Last week, 71% of visits to political sites at the “Times” included a stop at Silver’s blog. Furthermore, 13% of all visits to the “Times” last week, the number six news site in the U.S., were to Silver’s blog. The day before the election, it was 20%.

Nate Silver Is a One-Man Traffic Machine for the Times

Talent has power. Individuals can rise to the top seemingly instantly. The corporation is not king in this world where everybody can start themselves online. If you’re not making it, you haven’t paid your dues and/or you’re just not good enough.

11. Gay

Mr. Silver is. It’s rarely trumpeted. We now live in a post-gay era. As Chris Rock says, everybody’s got a relative who swings the other way. If you’re a hater, get over it. Just like Ms. replaced Miss, the tide has turned, gays have a seat at the table. Not that there isn’t work to be done educating the naysayers.

12. You Can Win

But you’ve got to want it. You’ve got to be willing to follow the road less traveled. You can’t take what you read at face value. You’ve got to be unique. You’ve got to be so outside they won’t let you on the reality TV show. You’ve got to be everything great about America – self-motivated, with a winning attitude, willing to do the hard work.

Jimmie Walker On Maron

Who knew JJ could be so fascinating?

I’m still waiting to get to the part where he delves into not being black enough. That he was too commercial and went through a very dark period…pardon the pun, but he was not laughing when he referenced it.

Jimmie talks about going to the Apollo. He gives a history of the Chitlin’ Circuit. Not boasting, it’s just that Maron’s pulling it out of him, and even if you’re a baby boomer, some of this stuff will be news to you.

But what’s most fascinating is the credit given to Cheech & Chong. Jimmie says it was the duo that changed comedy forever, not Carlin and Pryor, they followed in their footsteps.

Jimmie credits Lou Adler. Who is now known as the guy who sits next to Jack Nicholson at Laker games, but once was the arbiter of what was cool and hip, who not only worked with Jan & Dean, the Mamas and the Papas, Monterey Pop and ultimately Carole King, but signed Cheech & Chong.

Jimmie couldn’t believe it. He saw the duo in San Francisco. How was this gonna get on TV, with all the swearing and drug references?

IT WASN’T!

And the Cheech & Chong albums ended up at the top of the chart. That’s how I found out about them, an avid “Billboard” reader going to college in the hinterlands…what was this?

Jimmie said comedy used to be Alan King. Something the whole family watched together on “Ed Sullivan.” The whole family was not going to be listening to Cheech & Chong, your parents weren’t gonna get it, the establishment would be horrified, their comedy was made just for you.

Today everybody’s making music for everybody. It’s the MTV hangover. Everybody wants to go global, achieve world domination, and this is what kills them.

Blame the baby boomers. Who believe they’re still hip, even though they aren’t. They get plastic surgery and diet down even thinner than their progeny to become their kids’ best friends. What a load of hogwash. In the sixties, your parents were never your best friends. You kept secrets, you didn’t share intimacies, it was clear who was boss…and it wasn’t you. Parents disciplined. Your goal was to get out of the house. Now kids come home from college and stay there. And you wonder why our culture is in the dumper.

Then again, kids own tech. Baby boomers are amazed. How do you know all this when there’s no manual and no class? Kids know tech instinctively. They’re forming app and Internet companies on the fly, just like their parents used to form bands. The parents don’t get it.

And the parents never got the Beatles.

History has been rewritten. Baby boomers hated Frank Sinatra in the sixties. If you came of age in the sixties, you even hated Elvis Presley. But you never wanted to listen to your parents’ music. Today parents wean their kids on the Beatles and they’re all in it together, makes my stomach turn.

Want to be successful?

Appeal to the niche. Don’t go for every living body. If someone wants in, don’t push them away, but don’t actively court them. Nothing turns fans away more than you appealing to people that they don’t even like. If it’s made for me, why should you be interested?

On one hand Lady Gaga does this so well. Her music isn’t for everyone and she’s all about her alienated tribe. But she plays to the mainstream media, with all the costume changes and pronouncements, and now her career is top-heavy. She’s not known for her music, but her identity. If she doesn’t release great music in the future, she’ll topple. The Beatles had one hit after another, Gaga’s been on an endless victory tour.

And fads are more evident than ever. Whether it be Carly Rae Jepsen or PSY. They’re here today and gone tomorrow, no different from the Human Beinz’s “Nobody But Me” and Napoleon XIV’s “They’re Coming To Take Me Away, Ha-Haaa!”

And the waters are muddied by everybody’s ability to get in the game and tell you about it. Not realizing they’re not good enough and the public is immune to hype.

Music has become lowest common denominator.

And one can argue Cheech & Chong were too. But they were the first. The first to sell the drug culture. Which was burgeoning. Whereas everybody in music today is positively me-too. I mean if Taylor Swift uses Max Martin, do we have any hope of having someone to believe in, who rejects the money culture and is solely concerned with personal exploration and truth?

We’re in a bankrupt moment culturally in music. Hell, the only thing interesting is EDM. Which is not that different from Cheech & Chong. Radically different from everything else in the landscape. With no words. Appealing with its beat. Oldsters don’t get it. And youngsters clamor.

But what’s truly interesting is what comes next. What follows through the door EDM has opened. What greatness that is made for this same audience that doesn’t appeal to baby boomers and network television. Hell, EDM sucks on television…ain’t that the point?

Episode 327 – Jimmy Walker

WEST END WOLF ft. INSANE, MWS & WILLIAM TOPLEY – ON IT

WEST END WOLF ft. INSANE, MWS & WILLIAM TOPLEY – ON IT

What do they say, writing about music is like dancing about architecture?

You see music is all about emotion, all about feel, and the best you can do is convey that. Break it down to its components, its elements, and it loses its soul. You end up with facts and figures, but no heart. And this track has heart.

We’ve got to take music back from the gatekeepers. Whether it be Clear Channel or pricks like Tim Westergren. Clear Channel is beholden to advertisers and both are beholden to Wall Street. Music is secondary to the main mission, which is getting rich. Hell, Westergren is already richer on Pandora stock than most of the musicians whose Pandora payments he trots out. You see music is more valuable than Pandora, than any pipe. In the live performance arena, the musicians get all the money. Close to it. Sure, the promoter gets a few bucks, and the building, but without the star, there’s nothing. No one wants to go see an empty Staples Center. And without music, Pandora is worthless. Why should they pay less?

The power is in our hands. If we just realize this. Instead of looking to someone to sell out to, we should have some self respect. A great record can cut across demographic lines, make a ton of money, and it can break through instantly, just look at “Gangnam Style.”

Then again, that was mostly about the video.

And great songs go in the ears. Close your eyes and you get the same effect, if it isn’t BETTER!

And if I close my eyes and listen to “On It” I no longer care who wins the election tomorrow, the b.s. of life falls away, I’m one and I’m powerful.

I know William Topley. At least I did, twenty years ago. He fronted a band called the Blessing. They failed. He went independent. Most people have no clue who he is. But there’s something about his voice, the way he employs background singers.

This cut takes a while to reveal itself. It’s not made for Top Forty, just you. And the rapping is superfluous. But it’s all about the MOOD!

That intro synth. Like something off “Avalon.” It’s like you’re a balloon tethered to Earth…and then someone cuts the cord. You hover above the world, everybody else’s troubles, you just feel fine.

Then that ethereal background vocal comes in. It’s the equivalent of touch. An aural massage.

And then William Topley comes in with the chorus.

Maybe this is not your thing. That’s fine. Abuse me if you choose. But this is too good to let slide by, it needs to find its audience.

And I don’t expect coverage in the newspaper, I don’t expect an appearance on the “Today Show.” Music triumphed most when it was left of center, made just for me. When we owned it, when it let us go.

“On It” is subtle, but hypnotic. Like a late night drive home in the rain. When you’re isolated, yet feel fully alive, as your mind drifts.

That’s what music does. Set you free.

You can write about music. If you say how it makes you feel.

And this track makes me feel FUCKING GREAT!

My iPhone 5

I don’t trust people.

I could have ordered my iPhone 5 on September 21st. I’m awake at that hour. But knowing I was going out of town I waited… That was a mistake.

Then they said you could order online and pick it up in the store the next day. Turns out too many people got the memo. That turned out to be undoable.

Then I was going to be out of the country. I couldn’t order it because the change in my cell plan was pending, the switch to the overseas iteration, but today with my trip canceled and my regular plan intact, I decided to drill down and get it taken care of.

What an ordeal.

I could order from Apple. Like most people. But in my conversations with Verizon regarding my overseas plan, I found out that I qualified for a thirty dollar discount, so I bit the bullet and ordered from them.

Or at least I tried to.

To say Verizon’s website is confusing is to be charitable. You have to select the phone twice. But when it came to selecting the plan, it choked. Said it couldn’t be done.

So I switched browsers. From Safari to Firefox. But in Firefox, the ability to decline insurance was so far off the screen…it was unclickable.

So I decided to start all over and pay extra on the Apple site. Especially since I could get a better case and purchase AppleCare direct. Yup, if you buy via Verizon, you’ve got to go to the Apple Store with your new iPhone, sans any deterioration/scratches, to pay them ninety nine dollars for this warranty.

But Apple said I’d get the phone in the middle of December. And Verizon said I could get it in under two weeks.

So I went back to Verizon. I fired up speedy Chrome. And just when I was finalizing my order I realized… My billing and shipping addresses were different. I was unable to go backwards, it was literally impossible. So I had to start all over to find out you can’t ship to a different address.

It was then that I took the plunge. I picked up my receiver. I dialed Verizon.

My nephew made hundreds of thousands of dollars per year selling automobiles. Impossible you say! Car salesmen are the worst! That’s exactly the case. Which is why Andrew triumphed. Unlike everybody else selling luxury automobiles, he knew the product. I mean if you’re laying down for a Lexus or BMW, shouldn’t your salesman be more knowledgeable about the car than you are?

One great thing about Verizon. If you’re on hold, it doesn’t last long. I got April on the line. I explained my dilemma. She said she could take care of it.

Only one problem, I knew more about the iPhone 5 and the accompanying plans than she did. I knew I had to switch from an unlimited data plan to a tier. I told her I wanted five gigabytes a month. You can change it thereafter, but I figured I’d start large, and avoid penalties. Hell, maybe it’d turn out I needed ten gigabytes!

And I’m going through all the details again and again with April. Because that’s the kind of guy I am, I need to get it right. And she’s getting hot under the collar. And it’s all taking too long, being put on hold over and over. But then finally it’s done.

And two hours later I get an e-mail with the wrong shipping address and the wrong-sized data plan.

So I call and I get Mike. Who wastes ten minutes telling me the shipping address can’t be changed. That we can cancel the order and start all over. How can this be? I can buy the phone at apple.com in a matter of minutes, I’m blowing all afternoon with Verizon?

I ask to speak to his supervisor. Calmly.

He puts me on hold.

Says it’s impossible. He’ll help me.

I say I want the supervisor.

He says she’s out to lunch.

I hang up.

I call Global Support. Because they’re of a higher caliber. Nick is nice, but he can’t figure out how to do it. So I ask for a supervisor. Mike is even nicer, he says the best way to do it is to cancel the order, although I’ll lose my place in line, but I say fine.

But then the phone can’t be reordered. The system needs to clear. Mike says he’s gonna have to call me back in an hour or two.

And he does. And I ordered the phone. But I haven’t gotten the confirmation e-mail yet. I’m praying it will have no mistakes, because I’m beyond frustrated trying to give Verizon my money.

P.S. When Steve Jobs came back to Apple, he immediately streamlined the product line. This had all kinds of benefits. Both supply side and consumer side. You knew what you were buying. And when you go to the Apple Store, they know what they’re selling. Whereas so many fakokta phones are being sold by Verizon that no one’s got a clue. But I guess that’s o.k. They’ll just sell an Android phone whose software can’t be upgraded to someone too dumb to be a power user anyway. Power users, that’s what we’ve all become. We expect our devices to have features and to be able to use them intuitively, without consulting the manual.

P.P.S. If your website sucks, you’re gonna have a hard time making sales. Verizon could have just copied Apple’s site. Amazon gets it right. How could Verizon get it so wrong? This is where the rubber meets the road, why did they have to hire amateurs?

P.P.P.S. Simplicity. This is what kills ticket sales. People have to jump through hoops on Ticketmaster only to find out there are hidden fees. You wonder why they get pissed off? You could sell them all-in, paperless, utilizing Apple’s Passbook, which made a huge dent in the baseball playoffs, but music is balkanized, with competing fiefdoms heeding progress. The players think they’re winning, but they’re losing, the consumer checks out.

P.P.P.P.S You hate Apple, I get it. But when you’ve got a problem with your Samsung phone, who you gonna call? And you may want to hack your device, but very few do. Change your own oil recently? Install your own muffler? People just want their cars to work. Mercedes-Benz made its cars so complicated that its J.D. Power ratings sank and so did its sales. Cutting edge only works if your customers can catch up with you.

P.P.P.P.P.S. It’s the little things. More than being nice. If this is your job, can you do it? It’d be like showing up at the thruway tollbooth and finding out the attendant can’t make change. Huh? If you work as an usher, you’d better know where the seats are. But too often people don’t. There’s no pride in the job. Then again, the pay sucks. But I’m telling you if you can show up on time and do your job you’re gonna go to the head of the class, because most people can do neither, and your boss will notice you and promote you.

P.P.P.P.P.P.S. You know how many times my computer has crashed? Exactly none. I’ve had a hard drive go down, but my point is with technology, it either works or it doesn’t. Isn’t that Apple’s slogan, “It just works!”? That’s what we’re all looking for. I mean I have to get in my car, drive to the Santa Monica Apple Store, park, go inside, wait in line just so I can pay for an extended warranty, i.e. AppleCare? Everybody’s got a lot more money than time. And if you’re selling a premium product, and that’s what an iPhone 5 is, you’ve got to respect the customer, you’ve got to make it easy, you’ve got to save them time.