Tune in Saturday November 2nd to Faction Talk, channel 103, at 4 PM East, 1 PM West.

Phone #: 844-686-5863

X/Twitter: @lefsetz

If you miss the episode, you can hear it on demand on the SiriusXM app. Search: Lefsetz

Over 5%.

When everybody thought they’d go down.

I have an iPhone 16 Pro Max. Has a single person commented about it to me? NOT ONE! Because you can’t tell the difference physically, not unless you’re a super-student with excellent vision and you can zero in on the camera slide/button on the side.

So in a world where the exterior is more important than the interior, where it’s what shows is what counts, shouldn’t iPhone sales be DOWN?

Absolutely. That’s what all the Wall Street analysts said.

Now we can go deep into the details. Mention that the iPhone 16 was only on sale for a few days of the quarter, talk about mix of product, but… Absolutely everybody thought sales would go down. Another me-too product. Wait until 2025 for the great leap forward, with a new form factor.

But…

Actually, I expect the buzz on the iPhone 16 to increase. Because of AI. Which was just introduced to the public this Monday, with iOS 18.1.

Now if you read the reviews, each and every one of them said a day late and a dollar short. The AI introduction lagged the physical product by a month and right now it only does a fraction of what Apple says it will do eventually. Much ado about nothing, in fact.

Only that is untrue.

How much do I care about AI on my phone? Can’t say I really thought about it. I don’t need no summarization. However, I was stunned what I was delivered by the upgrade. Summarization of my most important emails at the top of the thread (which I turned off, because I’ve filtered out the junk and I live on e-mail and the content is just that important to me). All over the phone there are cool effects that remind me of…

Siri.

You remember the iPhone 4s, don’t you? It was a party trick, everybody who had one demonstrated it. YOU COULD TALK TO YOUR PHONE!

Not that it worked that well. But the iPhone 4s set sales records.

But the reason I’m mentioning all this, even referencing the iPhone in a world where the battle between Android and iOS is like red vs. blue, where the so-called elites don’t stop telling us to put our smartphones down is… If they can’t get it right on this, WHAT ELSE ARE THEY GETTING WRONG??

I’m sure you’ve been whipsawed by the election like me.

These Wall Street analysts live in the trenches, they get it right much more than they get it wrong. How could they miss consumer sentiment so completely?

In other words, has the momentum truly switched to Trump?

That’s what every Democrat has been afraid of for the last ten days. It’s what everybody is writing about. Nate Silver said he believed Trump had a better chance of winning than Harris.

My inbox has been freaking out.

And then there are those dyed-in-the-wool, this is where the right and the left are similar. Go against the orthodoxy and you’re excommunicated. If you say one negative thing about Harris you’re a hater who doesn’t understand the facts and must be silenced. It’s like no one went to college and learned how to hold two opposing thoughts in their brains at the same time. Or maybe they don’t teach that in college anymore, where the main goal is just to get a job, forget becoming a three-dimensional citizen.

So, let’s be clear, Harris has lost the mo. She peaked weeks ago, if not before that.

Then again, an incredible number of people have already voted.

Elon Musk is in the news 24/7 re Trump and Harris has no second on the left. It’s just Kamala and…

We just don’t know what people think.

On one hand, some say Harris has to win, because of abortion.

And then there are those who point to the Trump bros.

And one thing is for sure, Trump’s side has been trying to control the narrative with additional polls and endless pronouncements, setting up to challenge the results if he loses.

However…

What if the media has it wrong?

One thing the media has wrong is it thinks we still care. Hell, so many have already voted. There’s really nothing new being said. Enough already.

But every day there’s story after story, are the publications just playing to themselves? Let’s not forget, the media missed 2016, and to a great degree missed 2022 too, the Red Wave never arrived.

So…

We’re going to have to wait until Tuesday to find out, or maybe a while after that.

But if you’ve been pessimistic, thinking it’s over, know that you’re a victim of a disinformation campaign that has nothing to do with people voting.

And if people knew what they were doing would Jeff Bezos have refused to let the “Washington Post” endorse Kamala Harris?

Bezos was and still is out of touch. He had no idea who his customer was, I mean who’s paying for the “Post” to begin with? And now there is endless backlash, in excess of 200,000 have canceled their subscriptions.

All I am saying is it’s not over yet.

Furthermore, Trump has been losing momentum every day.

Then again, Taylor Lorenz pointed out that Harris is losing the war online because she’s gone short form instead of long:

https://www.usermag.co/p/trump-vs-kamala-whos-winning-online

Then again, Lorenz lives online and neither campaign team truly does.

No one has a lock on public sentiment, no one will know what people think until the election results are in.

AND THAT’S A GOOD THING!

Steve Porcaro went on the road with Gary Wright, was the synth savant in Toto, composed Michael Jackson’s “Human Nature” and…

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/steve-porcaro/id1316200737?i=1000675189775

 

 

 

https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/9ff4fb19-54d4-41ae-ae7a-8a6f8d3dafa8/episodes/d1c05475-d502-4601-bb4f-f6e9416f3eed/the-bob-lefsetz-podcast-steve-porcaro

 

1

Remember when Don Rose lobbied the business to get rid of the CD longbox?

Probably not, unless you were around thirty five years ago and remember Rykodisc and Tower Records and…

It’s interesting to me that music industry history is being forgotten. Not the early days, with Ahmet and Sun Records and the independents that built this business. No, I’m talking about when it all went corporate in the seventies, when big money started raining down, the machinations. Hell, it won’t be long before no one remembers Mo Ostin, never mind Bob Morgado.

So the record stores had to retool from vinyl to CD. Of course, at this point, cassettes were the major seller, but they could never be displayed properly, as they were inherently small. If you were shopping for cassettes, you needed your glasses.

But finally there was enough production capacity and CDs became a cash cow and all those 12″x12″ vinyl bins… Became the repository for two CD longboxes, side by side. The CD only took up half of the box. And after ripping it open you threw away the cardboard. And wasn’t this a waste, in a world where ecological issues matter?

But look at the cost! Retail would have to retool, it would cost money!

But Don Rose spearheaded a campaign and the longbox was history, relatively quickly once things got rolling.

And then there were the acts backing up Tidal. They all felt they’d been screwed by the industry, they were going to take control… Sure, the enterprise ultimately failed, but they all got together to support it.

So why can’t the acts get together and decide concert tickets should be sold for what they’re worth?

The Eagles, the Stones, they already do this. Either you do this or the uplift, the extra money, ends up in the hands of the scalpers. Might be good for your image if the face value of tickets is cheap, but everybody knows that ultimately the tickets don’t really end up being cheap.

Let’s say I told you you could buy two Mercedes-Benz cars for 50k apiece. Even though book value was 70k. Would you sit at home and just buy one? Hell, even if you were broke you might call all your buddies to invest in this sure shot. We can make 20k overnight! If you’ve got the money, you might buy two, or four, as many as you can afford.

This is the concert business.

The fan does not have clean hands. And it’s a minority of people complaining. Furthermore, despite all this bitching, everybody ultimately goes to the show and raves, says how it’s worth it. People complained about the price of Springsteen ducats, did anybody bitch after the shows played? Not a one. They loved it! If anything, they might say it was underpriced, they’d have paid more for this unique experience. I mean how often does the Boss go on the road? How often does any superstar go on the road? If you think Taylor Swift will be playing her greatest hits in stadiums every year from now on, you’re delusional. Some of those songs may never even be played live again. Go, or miss it. And what is that experience worth?

But somehow the tickets must be cheap. Why? Can you give me a single other example of this in the world of commerce? Where something is deliberately underpriced for fear it will hurt the image of the purveyor?

But it’s worse. Believe me, we can get the tickets in your hands for a low price, but either you’re going to have to go or…get the same amount of money back. You won’t be able to resell, and there’s a vocal minority that does not like this. They don’t want this financial opportunity excised. It’s like Southwest Airlines. They had a great system, then it got abused and now they’re going to have assigned seats. I loved the old system. If I paid to be at the front of the line (which went up in price from $12 to over twenty, but a bargain nonetheless), I always got an aisle seat. ALWAYS! But why was I paying when twenty-odd people were pre-boarding for no good reason? Why was the person in front of me saving bin space for their friends who didn’t want to pay the $12-$20 fee?

It’s a small minority of people complaining about concert ticket prices. As for the fees… All the purveyors say they want to bake them in, for one overall price, but the acts don’t like this, they’d rather blame the fees on the ticketing company, even though without those fees there is no show, since the act takes almost all of the face value of the ticket.

What are the acts so afraid of?

2

How about a campaign to charge what the tickets are worth. The legends will sign on, like the Stones, all the other acts that are pissed about scalpers getting the uplift, they should sign on too! And in each and every ad, of which there need to be many, and in each and every press conference and interview, the acts must say that it’s either them or the secondary market. Either they get the extra money or third parties who do nothing do. I mean the fans love the acts, don’t they? Don’t they want the acts to get all the money? Don’t they deserve it?

It’s time to revolutionize this business. Get out of the seventies and into the present.

All the problems go away if acts charge what the tickets are worth.

As for dynamic pricing… Everything changes price, airline tickets, hotel rooms, you name it. But a concert ticket can’t change price?

Furthermore, wouldn’t you rather know if you can pay the cost you can go?

Talk to a fan. Tell them that for an extra fifty bucks they can sit much closer. Almost every one of them is going to say yes. Which is why the expensive seats always sell first!

And who knows, maybe prices can even go down!

Why are the acts, why is the entire business, held hostage to a vocal minority who believe they’re entitled to see legendary talent in the front row for under fifty bucks?

This doesn’t happen in restaurants. And the best, most expensive restaurants…you can’t even get a table.

And then there are sports. Were you at the World Series? Probably not, but if you paid a grand plus for a seat, which is what they were going for, you’re going to dine out on the story for the rest of your LIFE!

I saw the Ziggy Stardust tour at the Boston Music Hall. I can’t even remember what I paid!

You go on vacation, is that the thing you remember most, what you paid? OF COURSE NOT!

And they ain’t got a Motel 6 in St. Bart’s. You pay for the best in every walk of life but concert tickets? THAT’S INSANE!

3

The acts have to organize, to their benefit. They have to say they’re on their fans’ side. That either they and the fans admit what is really going on or else everybody continues to stick their heads in the sands while the scalpers get rich. Meanwhile, those with money can always get an airplane seat, a concert ticket… That’s how the world works.

As far as legislation to solve the problem?

First and foremost, the scalpers have hoodwinked the consumer and the government(s). They blame ticketing companies, when in truth they are not the issue. So, all the focus is on Ticketmaster when in truth the solution is with the acts. If they charge what the tickets are worth, all the problems go away. As far as legislation goes… Getting rid of scalping is like getting rid of gambling, it can’t be done. There’s not enough enforcement power in the government, assuming any money is allocated at all! And a law without enforcement is toothless, irrelevant.

And, as we’ve seen for a quarter of a century, if you’re depending on the government for a solution…if you get anything, it will be years late and imperfect. No, you must solve the problem yourself.

The acts just have to shift gears. Get on the same page. Have a campaign. The fans will accept it, BECAUSE THEY LOVE THE ACTS! Only the acts can make change. And they have a huge incentive to do so, MONEY!

As for fans bitching…

Enough already. The boomers bitching about tickets to legacy acts spend in excess of a hundred bucks for dinner without thinking, and it doesn’t take as much time and isn’t as memorable!

Restaurants have costs, and so do tours!

And so many musical acts are like athletes. They’ve got a small window of maximum earning potential and then…

4

Yes, change will only happen if the acts insist on it. Break up Live Nation and Ticketmaster, that won’t drop the price of a ticket an iota.

You did the work, you’re not entitled to the money?

Do the acts go to realtors and ask for a discount since they’re musicians? OF COURSE NOT!

Why are the acts taking this hit when no one else in the universe is doing so?

The customer is not always right. Stop being afraid of the few vocal fans.

This problem can be solved.

After all, so many people are paying prices far in excess of face value to get into the building anyway. Where’s the big change?

And yes, if you want low ticket prices, you can tie the ticket to the buyer. This is not 100% effective, but it goes a long way to solving the problem. But the dirty little secret is that when this is tried, shows tend not to sell out. It’s the bots, the mania that is causing all this negative feedback. Why don’t you address the problem at its root?

Fair pay for fair work.

Artists united for equity.

Screw the secondary market.

We’re in it together, act and fan.

Choose your slogan, or many.

You cozy up to the fan, you don’t keep them at arm’s length.

Solve the problem.

We’re all waiting.