It’s a game of statistics.

Last night on Radiolab I heard Annie Duke say you couldn’t rely on tells. Because some people were too inexperienced to know whether they had a good hand or a bad one. Your only hope was to do the math.

I don’t play cards. But it’s been the rage for in excess of a decade. I thought it was a game of personalities, of bluffs, of mano a mano combat.

No, it’s a game of the smart against the dumb. The informed against the ignorant. All the best players reveal no physical reaction. You’ve got to know the math.

I get it, I get it. You can put up a YouTube clip and become famous!

But very few succeed and do you end up rich?

Not usually. Or not for long.

We’re undergoing a revolution in America. And it’s all based on intelligence. And if you’re uneducated, if you don’t understand the game, you’re going to be left behind. It’s like America’s a giant train, and the cars in front have uncoupled from those in the rear and are zooming down the track at light speed while those left behind aren’t even moving or are going down blind alleys. Everything your parents told you was true. You’ve got to apply yourself, you’ve got to do well in school, or you’re going to get left behind. Hell, it’s much worse than it was in the sixties and seventies, you can’t survive on minimum wage. You might be able to get a job at McDonald’s, but you can’t pay your bills.

Turns out there are charts. Of odds. Of probabilities. Turns out 20% is usually enough to go all-in. So what on the surface appears to be a bad bet is actually a safe one.

Annie makes a good point. It’s not about winning every time, it’s about winning enough of the time, breaking even.

Record labels and artists are clueless when it comes to this. So busy trying to ensure success, labels load up writers and producers on a track in order to make sure they’ve got a hit. Whereas they’d be better off letting the artists go free, have them take multiple chances. They don’t have to hit every time, but enough of the time!

You’re not gonna take a risk if you’ve only got one chance.

And you know if your left field track is any good, radio is gonna play it. That’s their business, playing hits. And in a world where it can take the better part of a year for a cut to bubble up, the winners float and the losers sink.

In other words, data is gonna revolutionize the music business.

Only there’s not enough money in it now.

And nobody in entertainment likes the truth. They’d rather operate on smoke and mirrors.

So listen to this Radiolab podcast. Maybe you’re a poker player and know everything. But I bet most are not and will be fascinated.

Meanwhile, Ms. Duke went to Columbia undergrad and then Penn for grad school. And you don’t have to attend these blue chips in order to make it. But you too have to do the work, you too have to have the insight and smarts. Or else you end up in the underclass, fighting over the scraps.

“Dealing With Doubt”

kickstarter – wish-i-was-here

Remember when all the bands were selling albums at Wal-Mart?

That was five years ago. And nobody does it anymore. The paradigm’s toast. Just like name your own price, the Radiohead “In Rainbows” promotion.

The reason the Wal-Mart scheme worked is because it was the EAGLES! Who hadn’t released an album in decades. Furthermore, unlike the traditional record business, the double album was a value, priced at single-album rates. If it had been Joe Blow…

Zach Braff may not be the Eagles, but he’s not getting as much money. But if you think crowdfunding is the future of entertainment financing, I’ve got to ask you how that Groupon stock is doing…are you still talking about it on MySpace?

Kickstarter, et al, have proven one thing:

1. If you’ve got fans, they’ll give you money.

It’s as simple as that. And that’s very important.

But…

1. Do you know who those fans are?

Unless you’re uber-famous, you’ve got to have an e-mail list and a Twitter following…you’ve got to be able to reach all those potential crowdfunding donors. If you’re a middling act who’s been playing to gatekeepers your whole career, you’re gonna be in trouble.

So, right now, everybody in the creative sphere, develop and maintain an ongoing relationship with your fan base, it’s going to keep you alive when the big boys run out of money or are no longer interested in funding you.

But the gooey secret of crowdfunding is how few people donate. The focus is on the money raised.

Right now, 16,789 people have donated to Zach Braff’s movie campaign. If that many went to see his flick the first week out he’d be laughed out of “Variety.” Now I’m not saying he won’t get more people, but he’s one of the biggest film stars ever to go to the public via Kickstarter. In other words, if you’re a wannabe, GOOD LUCK!

And once you’ve got your money, you’ve got to…

Deliver.

Which brings us to the #1 problem in the crowdfunding sphere:

1. Too many people do not. And those who do not tarnish those who do. So if you lay out your cash and no film or album is forthcoming, there’s trouble. Furthermore, Braff’s a pro. The Pebble creators? It was laughable how little they knew about producing their product after they got their money. Read their posts explaining their delay. These high-fliers were more interested in the money than the logistics, and they’re the big winner!

You only survive in tech if you continue to grow and innovate. Which is why Amazon is such a high-flier. Today’s rumor is they’re going to deliver a set-top TV box. What is Kickstarter’s next move?

Not that these guys are bad or rip-off artists, but what we’ve seen in the history of the Net is one fad after another. From AOL to MySpace to…Facebook?

Come on, remember when AOL bought Time Warner?

How come everybody’s so stupid?

So Zach Braff raises his money. He shoots the film. Then where does he distribute it? Who pays for all the marketing? I’m not saying he can’t do without, but what he’s gonna end up with is a very small footprint, unless his film is incredibly good. But if you don’t know that nothing is guaranteed in movies, that you can have the best intentions yet end up with a mediocre flick, you’ve never made a movie.

So let’s not get caught up in the hysteria.

But we can get caught up in the cynicism…

Many high-fliers are looking for bucks on Kickstarter despite already having the money, they see it as a marketing tool. You think the public isn’t gonna suss this out?

And when the big boys come to play, it squeezes out the wannabes. Kickstarter’s no longer a left field club, but the playground of the people who won’t hang with you, who are always behind locked gates and velvet ropes.

So where does this leave us?

Great art triumphs. It’s easier to make it from left field than ever before.

But with all the competition, you’ve got to be better than ever.

And what we’re waiting for in film is what’s just now happening in music…acts that have developed completely outside the mainstream and stay that way. That’s the revolution, not the already famous slumming.

THE VINYL REVOLUTION

It’s a hobby. Like stamp collecting. Albeit with a lot more press. Just because you spinners are yelling at the top of your lungs that does not mean the rest of us care. While you’re at it, why don’t you bring back dial telephones, typewriters, cathode-ray TVs, pagers…

AMBULATORY PEOPLE WITH HANDICAP PLACARDS

Have you no shame?

SPOTIFY SEARCH

Never underestimate the power of search. If we can’t find it, we can’t buy it or hear it or… Amazon has a whole division dedicated to search, hell, it even let the public utilize its engine once upon a time. Ever search for something and find yourself unable to find it on Amazon or iTunes? Rarely. The fundamentals are key. And while I’m at it, why does Spotify always freeze/pause? Is it because I’m not allocating enough space to P2P or bad code or..?

DISTRIBUTION

If I can’t find it in your store, after driving halfway across town, do you really expect me not to shop online, even if I have to pay the tax?

PLASTIC

Isn’t there any other way to distribute food items?

WOMEN IN GIANT SUVs WITH CHROME WHEELS

You know, their husbands made them buy them, so when they drive around town on the weekend they look like big swinging dicks, but their schlongs are probably tiny.

ACTS THAT DON’T REALIZE VIRALITY IS BASED ON MUSIC

Marketing comes after. Start with a great tune.

JUST BECAUSE YOU MADE IT, THAT DOESN’T MEAN I WANT TO LISTEN TO IT, READ IT OR OWN IT

I’ve got no time, especially for unwanted work. Why don’t I take you to the grocery store and make you buy SPAM. Then again, SPAM actually has a market!

TECHNOLOGICALLY INEPT BABY BOOMERS

They’ve got all the gadgets, but they don’t know how to use them. Ever hear of Google? It’ll tell you everything you need to know! Baby boomers are all sheen and no substance, they didn’t grow up with gadgets and they don’t want to put the time in to learn how to use them. Baby boomers are all about resting on their laurels and whining that it just ain’t the way it used to be.

THE LATE NIGHT WARS

Almost no one’s watching and no one’s doing anything new. It’d be like reading about the war between Styx and 38 Special every damn day.

TWITTER’S DECIMATION OF TWEETDECK

It was good before they bought it. Then they revamped it into unusability. Sometimes outsiders have more insight than you do.

TECH NEOPHYTES WHO THINK THEIR ADD-ON WILL TRIUMPH

Once upon a time spell checkers were standalone programs. Now they’re a FEATURE! If you’re building a tweak for a service, either do it for free or pray they buy you out. Because chances are if what you’re doing is worth anything, they’re going to replicate what you do and squash it.

RADIO BLOWHARDS

Who keep writing and e-mailing how terrestrial radio is a triumphant juggernaut. Yes, radio is where the most people go to listen today. Just like network TV was triumphant before NBC was trounced by Univision in the last book.

DOWNLOAD FREAKS

Streaming wins. Just like digital photography killed film. Just because you hear about something for a decade and it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it still won’t. Digital killed film seemingly overnight. Same deal with streaming. As for the public’s ignorance, unknowledgeable that playlists live on your handset and no bandwidth is required…he who complains loudest is always the most ignorant.

PSY’S NEW VIDEO

Everybody’s watching out of curiosity. It’s over, forget it.

ENTERTAINMENT PEOPLE WHO ARE TECH ENTREPRENEURS

It’s hard in life to do one thing. Bo Jackson played baseball poorly before he got injured in the NFL. Michael Jordan, the best basketball player of all time, couldn’t hit. So when the agency or the manager tells me he’s got a tech idea, I laugh. This is akin to getting a VC to settle a live show.

PROFESSIONAL ADVICE GIVERS

You know, the people online who tell you how to make it and charge you for the advice, not telling you first that you’ve got no chance. They’re just trying to find a new business after their old one in the industry evaporated.

COLLEGE

They don’t teach you how to think, they just graduate you in some irrelevant topic that you could learn on the job, like PR or the music industry. Just because you’ve got a sheepskin, that does not mean you’re entitled to a job.

You want a #19.

I have birthday traditions. You know how institutions of higher learning have all those rules you’ve got to follow for no good reason other than everybody before you did the same damn thing? Well, I’m my own stuff-shirted traditionalist, it all hearkens back to…

1977.

Yup, that’s when I went to Langer’s and on to C.C. Brown’s and “Annie Hall” on my birthday.

That’s the tradition, hot pastrami, hot fudge sundae and a movie…or two or three.

Langer’s?

What kind of country do we live in where the best pastrami sandwich is not in New York but Los Angeles?

Yes, all the critics agree. It’s the hand-cut meat. The rye bread.

And the cole slaw, Swiss cheese and Russian dressing.

Huh? How can you taste all those flavors, that’s a mishmash akin to an everything bagel!

Only it’s not.

I worked my way up to the #19, Langer’s legendary sandwich.

At first I only got the pastrami, then the swiss cheese, then I remembered the sandwiches in the mountains, i.e. the Catskills, with cole slaw, and I went for the whole shebang and that’s what I have every April 22nd, the #19. And it couldn’t have been better yesterday.

And just because I was overdoing it, I had the crinkly fries too. Or should I say KRINKLY fries? And of course a Dr. Brown’s Black Cherry. Come on, you can’t eat at the deli without it.

And the Russian dressing is oozing out of the sandwich, but the crunch of the bread is so satisfying, it’s a modern mouth orgasm and a return to my youth all at once.

As for the movies…

The best movie ever made is “Godfather II.” Argue with me, I don’t care.

But my favorite is “Annie Hall.” Because that’s how life is. The nebbishes make it on their personality. And every desirable woman is insecure inside, it goes with the territory, i.e. humanity! If you don’t quote “Annie Hall” on a regular basis, you haven’t seen it! Come on, WE NEED THE EGGS!

But it’s not 1977 anymore. It’s hard to find a decent movie in the theatre.

So we went to see “In The House.”

I’m not afraid of subtitles. Although we were so close that looking from them to the images was kinda difficult. And I can’t recommend “In The House,” but I will tell you that French movies are so different from American ones. They’re concerned with issues of existence. The unexamined life is not worth living in France.

And when it was over we promptly bought tickets to see “42.” Because it was there. And it started at the right time. And it was hokey, but meaningful.

Trailblazers have haters.

And haters gain their strength from numbers. Hell, everybody else is doing it, I’m afraid not to!

And nowhere is everyday hating as prominent as on the web. If you can’t take it, you’re not gonna make it. Everybody’s trying to drag you down into the hole they’re in. Resist it. Stay out of the gutter. You can make it if you really want, but you must try, try and try, try and try, to succeed at last.

And from there to Carvel.

Normally we go to Ben & Jerry’s.

But I was already stuffed from all the popcorn I ate. And I was thinking of passing, but traditions are traditions.

First and foremost the server had laryngitis, it was like being in a bad Buster Keaton movie, but if you haven’t experienced the creaminess of Carvel you’re in for a treat. And the hot fudge was divine!

Oh, and did I tell you that upon hearing it was my birthday at Langer’s they gave me a free piece of cheesecake, and the waiter sang to me?

Yup.

That’s the TLC of an establishment in existence for almost a century.

And then I was worn out.

But I don’t work on my birthday.

So I fired up the television and watched “Deadliest Catch.” It was fascinating to hear the Hillstrand backstory. But what I love is how they’re married to their boat. You’ve got to be married to your work to be successful today. It’s got nothing to do with cell phones and accessibility, it’s got to do with effort. On a planet with billions, only he or she who dedicates and practices triumphs. And it’s sweet reward. But never enough. Isn’t that funny, work wins never last, whereas personal ones do.

And then I watched the Louis C.K. special. The ending was phenomenal, but the forty-odd minutes before that?

That’s what I hate about the hype, no one can say anything negative. I loved Louis on Stern. But I didn’t love his TV show or his special. And that’s what people hate about me, that I just can’t get with the program and give mediocre a pass. But I’m searching for excellence, like a #19 or “Annie Hall” or C.C. Brown’s!

They say they invented the hot fudge sundae there, but I don’t believe it. And it’s gone now. But it used to be on Hollywood Blvd. And it was overpriced. But every sundae came with its own pitcher of hot fudge, par excellence. It was a delicious taste treat that would be featured on Triple-D if it was still around.

That’s what we’re looking for, the out of the way experience that makes us feel individual and alive. Sure, Disneyland is fine, but when you can stare into the distance from the promontory, taking in the sunset alone or with your loved one, that’s when you feel most alive.

And when you eat a #19.

Langers deli (scroll down to see the picture of endless #19s!)