Music is turning into baseball. There’s no sense of history.

For all the fealty paid to classic rock, the truth is the past gets very little ink, even though it can dominate listening. And if you’re not the Beatles or Pink Floyd you may get neither, no attention and no streams.

And that’s just plain sad.

Last week Cynthia Robinson died and the only place it got notice was in the newspaper. You’d think the music press would be singing hosannas, paying tribute to a female rock star who paved the way, not a singer but an instrumentalist, even though she can be heard yelling ALL THE SQUARES GO HOME in the midst of “Dance To The Music,” a call to action in three minutes featuring this exclamation by Ms. Robinson that contained the essence of the us versus them sixties. You were either hip or you weren’t. You were either clued in or you weren’t. You either grew your hair long or you didn’t.

And for all the deserved attention paid to Jimmy Page and Jeff Beck, Paul McCartney and John Lennon, they’d be the first to point to their roots, the bluesmen of the Mississippi Delta. And African-Americans did not disappear from the music scene, and one of their greatest exponents was one Sylvester Stewart, better known as Sly Stone, who married rock and blues and soul into a delectable concoction under the moniker Sly & the Family Stone that was undeniable.

It started with “Dance To The Music.”

And then Sly had a run of hit singles far outpacing that of Bieber and the wannabes, everybody knew the group’s tracks, black and white, we were all in it together, led by this guy who started off as a deejay and then produced the whitest of groups, the haunting Beau Brummels.

It might have started with “Dance To The Music,” but the apotheosis was “Stand!,” the spring ’69 LP that is never mentioned as one of the best albums ever but contains four classics that make up for the thirteen minute “Sex Machine,” assuming you need justification of Sly working it out at length. Hell, I’ll wager more sex was had to that funky number than the music of all the British Invasion bands combined. Well, maybe not. But unlike so much of the sixties stuff from the Limeys, “Sex Machine” still sounds fresh today.

And I’d be lying if I said I got it, even though it was hiding in plain sight.

Oh, I got the singles. Come on, how many times do you have to hear “Dance To The Music,” once? Tell that to all the wankers with bad voices and no changes who tell you to play their hour plus LPs over and over to get it. Sly grabbed you by the throat and didn’t let go, “Dance To The Music” exploded out of the car speaker.

And then came “Everyday People,” which was all about bringing us together as opposed to pushing us apart. It was the opposite of the blowhard lyrics about partying, rims and ho’s in today’s tracks.

I am no better and neither are you
We are the same, whatever we do

Ain’t that the truth. And “My own beliefs are in my song.” Maybe because Sly wrote it, and it was an era where what you said/sang was much more important than who you dated or how much money you made.

And on the flip side of “Everyday People” was the positively explosive “Sing A Simple Song,” with exhortations by Cynthia.

And then, in the middle of the summer of ’69, came the delectable treat known as “Hot Fun In The Summertime,” a song that put a smile on your face every time you heard it. Song of the summer? Make me puke, today’s construct is a joke, it’s purely about popularity. But Sly and his troupe encapsulated June to September in two and a half minutes, to the point where it still rings true today. Will we say the same about “Call Me Maybe” forty years from now? Two?

And speaking of funky, the next big hit was “Thank You (Falettinme Be Mice Elf Agin).” Which went all the way to number one, even though it sounded nothing like the poppy stuff dominating the airwaves at that time. From back when musicians were revolutionaries, making an individual statement as opposed to just following trends.

And when it looked like Sly was done, when he was becoming known for drugs more than music, he dropped a track so soulful it cut you to the bone. “Family Affair” is chilling, despite in some ways being so warm.

And then there was the last hurrah, 1973’s “If You Want Me To Stay.” And the drums might have been played by Andy Newmark and the bass by Rustee Allen but Cynthia Robinson persevered on trumpet, along with Jerry Martini and newbie Pat Rizzo on saxophones. Cynthia was a lifer, she counted, she was an integral part of the group.

But right smack dab in the middle of the band’s career was the aforementioned “Stand!”

I knew the title track, it got airplay, it was the kind of thing you leaned in closer to hear, back when every track of all time was not at your fingertips, when you waited for your favorites to emanate from the radio. We all need support and inspiration, and that’s what “Stand!” provides.

But I did not know the rest of the album.

But I did know this girl, who was alive with a twinkle in her eye, we talked in the library, occasionally on the phone, and in one of our conversations she revealed her favorite group was Sly & the Family Stone. Take that Jimmy Iovine, who thinks women need to be led to music, hell, they can lead us boys to it just fine.

And being the religious reader of the Sunday “New York Times” Arts & Leisure section that I was I noticed the band was coming to Madison Square Garden, I called her, did she want to go?

I think she wanted to see the band more than she wanted to see me, but in any event she said yes, and we ended up with tickets on the floor, back before all the ducats disappeared in pre-sales, when Regular Joes still had a fighting chance.

And this was back before Sly fell off the deep end, before he appeared late, if he deigned to appear at all. This was February 1970, before he got married on stage at the same venue. This was before the “Woodstock” movie…

The festival is still mentioned, but the impact of the flick is rarely talked about. Despite being the biggest rock festival of all time, few were actually there. But the movie played everywhere. And one of the highlights was when Sly and his band of merry-makers played I WANT TO TAKE YOU HIGHER!

You’ve got no idea what it was like. Back when production was absent, with no backdrop nor lasers, when the music was enough and it wasn’t on hard drive, but played by the assembled multitude.

Boom laka-laka-laka, boom laka-laka-laka

We were standing on the seats, back when they still had those, and we were thrusting our arms in the air, being taken higher, it was one of the most memorable nights of my life.

But despite all the hits, few knew, I was suddenly a member of a secret society, I was instantly converted, inducted into the church, the religion had been waiting for my conversion, but I was unaware.

But soon everybody knew. That’s the power of the moving image, when it captures lightning in a bottle. Coolness and talent and…

Black women always worked. They had to put food on the table. They were not like white women staying at home playing mom while their hubbies went out to bring home the bacon. But when you’ve got nothing you’ve got nothing to lose. Which is why the biggest breakthroughs always come from the underclass, the underappreciated, who take chances and show us. Where are all the sisters testifying to the trailblazing of Cynthia Robinson? I don’t hear any. They’re myopically focused on white women from New York City, they’re really more about themselves than others, they just want to be stars, they want all the spoils, they don’t know how to be a cog in the machine, a brick in the edifice, an integral element of the production without which the whole thing collapses.

Sly Stone may be dazed and confused, burned out, but his legacy lives on. You only have to hear any of the foregoing tracks once and you get them.

That’s the power of music.

That’s the power of talent.

And Cynthia Robinson was THERE!

Cynthia Robinson – Spotify link

Nate Silver told me Donald Trump can’t win.

You remember Brother Nate, who called the last election which Mitt Romney thought he was gonna win and Karl Rove couldn’t believe he lost. Silver got it exactly right in the “New York Times,” which unlike a winning sports team didn’t give him what he wanted, so Silver decamped to ESPN, where he’s been marginalized.

But he’s still right.

It’s weird to see the old guard bumping up against the new, the baby boomers and aged Gen-X’ers being flummoxed by the digitally-savvy youngsters. MP3s were not embraced by oldsters until the iTunes Store. Hell, Adele just sold a boatload of CDs to the aged, and you’ve got an oldster-controlled media which believes what they say matters, when the truth is the data doesn’t lie,

Oh yes it does, you say! Numbers can be manipulated to say whatever you want them too, you can’t trust polls!

Which is why Silver aggregates them, and we can argue with interpretation, but raw data counts. And what the data says is Donald Trump has high unfavorables. He might have 20+% of the Republican electorate today, but when the losers drop out are their followers going to decamp to Trump? Not according to the data. Which also tells us this far out the polls are nearly meaningless.

So you can ignore the Trump show. It’s gonna get canceled.

But you’ve got the aged media reporting on what he says like it counts, which it doesn’t. Why does the sideshow always become the main show in America?

Not that Mr. Silver always comes down on the side of the Democrats, data is neutral, Silver said the Republicans were gonna clean up in 2014 and they did.

If anything, Silver’s predictive abilities are scary. The deflate us. They illustrate what we thought was exciting is not, that what we thought was up for grabs is not. And people like Silver can actually eviscerate hope and make it so people don’t vote.

But you shouldn’t argue with the data.

That’s the war in the music business right now. The youngsters cannot understand why they cannot get an honest accounting. Since everything’s sold and streamed online, shouldn’t the numbers be easily discernible, quickly, shouldn’t royalty splits be locked in stone? Of course not, because the record company model is based on theft, from the artist. There you have it.

But this won’t be forever. Because systems are getting too good. And young people won’t stand for it!

Remember when records were number one for eons?

That was back before SoundScan, when the charts were manipulated, when Tommy Noonan was the most powerful person in the record business. You’ve never heard of him, but no one seems to know the people who truly count.

Like Nate Silver.

His predictions should be on the front page of every newspaper.

But then what would the bloviators on 24 hour news channels have to say?

But the truth is that’s a dying paradigm. TV news ratings are already anemic. News is an on demand item. The only question is where are you going to get it?

Right now we’ve got chaos, with too many sources, but what we’re gonna see is consolidation. Just like there were six major labels and now there are three. Lucian Grainge is way more powerful than Walter Yetnikoff or Mo Ostin ever were, never mind Clive Davis. Clive Davis did a good job of creating his myth, but the data said he wasn’t making much money, which is why he was blown out at Arista.

It always comes down to the numbers.

But now there are more of them. And we’ve got better interpreters.

You see these are teachable skills. Statistics is known as one of the hardest subjects in college, to be avoided at all costs, but those who take it and build upon it end up ruling the universe. That’s what Facebook is based upon, data. Do you think Mark Zuckerberg cares where you went on vacation, what you ate for dinner? No, he just wants to be able to slice and dice this data ever so finely so he can sell it to advertisers. Zuckerberg is selling efficiency. Targeting consumers directly. And the more outlets he owns, the more Facebook and Instagram, et al, can’t be ignored.

Meanwhile, the hoi polloi are fixated on nitwit entertainers, whether they be Justin Bieber or Donald Trump. Bieber’s got power but he’s not exercising it for good, because he’s a know-nothing, and Trump is smarter but is pretty powerless himself. It’s artists who touch hearts and change minds. He or she who wrote that song that saved you from committing suicide…they’re the ones you’re gonna listen to. But today they’re not saying anything.

Which is why the techies are the new heroes. Because when emotion is fake, you fall back upon facts. And if you don’t believe in facts, if you can’t recognize the power of data, you’re doomed to be whipsawed by a culture wherein self-evident truths are more important than spin.

Nate Silver made a bad career move. He gave up his pulpit and sold his entire enterprise to ESPN. He thought he was gaining freedom, but really he was building his own prison. In a world where it’s nearly impossible to reach everybody, where most people can’t sing two Taylor Swift songs, why would you abdicate your perch overseeing the land? Why would you marginalize yourself?

And why would the “New York Times” let him go? It was the established players who wouldn’t let him write about sports, his passion, they pushed him out the door, to the detriment of both Silver and the paper. Nobody won.

And personalities count. The “Times” has new data reporters but they’re faceless and untrustworthy. It takes years to win people over.

And Silver has faceless writers on 538 who’ve earned no trust either.

But he’s free to do what he wants in obscurity.

But you’re free to inform yourself, you’re free to look at the world dispassionately and navigate it to your advantage.

Pay attention to the numbers. Interpreted by people who know the game and can make sense of them.

I used to be very afraid of Donald Trump.

Then I read Nate Silver.

Who hasn’t been wrong yet.

Are you gonna bet against Pixar?

Then don’t discount Nate Silver.

The world is run by a small coterie of people who truly know and understand the game.

Be one of them.

“Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates”

“Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls”

Now everything is entertainment, everything is just grist for the mill.

That gig the paper says was sold out?

Probably wasn’t.

Those sales figures that indie act is touting?

You’d be best to cut them by 90%.

The entertainment business has always been built upon smoke and mirrors. The truth hurts and the populace did not want to know movie stars were gay and rock stars were loners who’d rather rest in hotel rooms, never mind throw TVs out the window.

Every day people e-mail me inaccurate information. About vinyl making more money than streaming, about Spotify taking all the money. And you wonder why you can’t get ahead.

Used to be we believed in the press. That reporters would get ’em. Before those in play attacked the correspondents and Dan Rather lost his job and Bill O’Reilly kept his. Because CBS thought they reported to a higher power but Roger Ailes knows he is the higher power, and it makes no difference what the rabble-rousers say.

My favorite story on this involves one Jerry Heller, you know, the guy who’s suing the “Straight Outta Compton” movie. He told me when a writer asked him how many albums Ruthless sold, he uttered SEVENTY MILLION! And then he turned to me and said…”My company, my number.”

Apple won’t even tell you how many Watches it’s sold. And Twitter profiles are fake and Facebook likes are bought.

But they’re all touted as fact, and most people believe them. Because they’re either too dumb or they need to believe.

Because believing in yourself is just too much.

Do you really believe a blowhard businessman who was born on third base can run the country?

Do you really believe the populace wants said blowhard to run the country?

Well, Jesse Ventura did get elected governor. Look how that turned out. And he hasn’t stopped spouting conspiracy theories since.

Jesse’s an entertainer. Which people want because they just can’t handle the cold hard truth. That your job is not safe and there’s little upward mobility and it’s got to be somebody’s fault other than your own.

But it’s not the immigrants’ or the rest of the bogeymen, it’s the system. One wherein the rich run things and they want to keep it that way. And anybody who could blow the whistle is enthralled by the players and wants to become one too. Can you say “Judith Miller”?

Want to pull someone to your side?

Give ’em a ride in a private jet. Buy ’em a four hundred dollar bottle of wine. Woo-hoo, look at me live! Not realizing that those are business expenses that pay dividends, that you’re just a pawn in their game.

Politics is a profession. And sure, we want fresh faces, but we don’t want inexperienced people. It’d be like anointing the losers on “Idol” as stars. What would that look like, people who couldn’t carry a tune who believed they were entitled, would you listen to their music?

Of course not. Then why are you accepting what Donald Trump says as truth?

Sure, some of you are not, you’re Democrats. But you believe manufacturing can come back to America. Why don’t you pay $2500 for a flat screen while you’re at it.

And Black Friday is fading…

Wait, the press got that one right. Maybe because there weren’t personalities involved. Reporters have a hard time standing up to people. In journalism school they teach you to be fair and balanced, to give credence to both sides. But what if one side is pure idiocy, not truth, but a way to move the ball forward in the game?

And although everything is entertainment now, the true metaphor is football. Everybody’s just trying to carry their product downfield. And if Bill Belichick and his Patriots cheat, why shouldn’t I? But you say they didn’t, because you live in Boston and you need something to believe in.

We all need something to believe in. But it’s best to start with yourself. You’re the arbiter of truth. If it feels bad, it must be. But who the enemy is…

If the political reporters can’t ferret out the truth, what are the odds the entertainment reporters can? When most of what the media prints is not news, and frequently is just a press release. With media budgets slashed so owners can make their margins there’s no time for questioning, and you can’t piss off the advertisers. Maybe the “Times” has a Chinese wall, but Buzzfeed and the rest of the advertorial giants?

Give me a break.

Blame it on the internet, blame it on the lack of a fairness rule, but really know it’s a reflection of society at large. You can’t get a job without a college degree, and college doesn’t teach you how to think, but just gives you business skills, so you’re no match for the truly educated. The elite institutions teach you how to hold two opposing thoughts in your brain at one time. Like we can have low temperatures and severe storms even if there’s global warming. But you think climate change is a hoax, not knowing the energy companies spread that story and how come you’re so worried about the national debt impacting your children but not rising temperatures?

Used to be we were told what to believe by a few outlets, whose feet were held to the fire. Sure, fallacies got through, like people thought FDR could walk, but news was a higher calling and with few places to get it truth was the goal.

Not everywhere, but in many places.

But now that everybody has a voice, it’s a free-for-all.

But not for long. We’re going to see consolidation. The rich will get richer. Just like in music. Which is what will happen in podcasting. Everybody doesn’t have a blog and everybody won’t have a podcast, and you’ll have to retreat to your lonely little life where you’ll realize…

The people don’t have the power, the corporations do. And those with the most power are the news outlets. You think it’s about money, but power is much more satisfying. You control public opinion. You mold people’s minds. That’s Fox News’s brilliance. That’s Rupert Murdoch’s brilliance. His fortunes may fade, but he’s a titan, he controls what you think.

Because you’ve refused to think for yourself. You believe a licensor, someone who’s full of vitriol and bombast, can run a country.

Well, if that’s true, why don’t you elect Gene Simmons.

Hey, wait a minute… Gene, why don’t you run?

1. MUSIC, NOT TRENDS

There’s been a huge focus on what’s hot as opposed to what’s good. John Seabrook delineated the “track and hook” singles that dominate today’s Top Forty, but could it be that old-fashioned melody, with memorable changes and a good vocal, is what most people really want to hear? Could it be that trendiness is what is putting the music business in the dumper?

2. SOCIAL MEDIA IS OVERRATED

You’ve got to get the message out. And Adele had a complicit press, which was intrigued by her pursuit of a sales record. But with it being so hard to break through and dominate, many have focused on the penumbra, when it’s always been about the music. Yes, you can connect with your fans who will support you, Amanda Palmer is the greatest exponent of this, but most people have never heard her music and when they do they don’t want to listen further. You can build it for the hard core, but if you want everybody else to care, you’ve got to go back to the songs and the performance, the melody and the talent.

3. TALENT COUNTS

Yes, auto-tune can make it so anybody can sing, but it can’t make it so anybody will care. Turns out people are looking for the genuine article. What music used to be. Someone who needs no support system to shine.

4. TODAY IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS TOMORROW

We don’t know if anybody will be listening to “25” tomorrow, and we have no way to measure said listens. We’ve always known the money in music is in the long game. That’s why publishing counts, that’s why some oldsters can clean up on the road, selling out arenas, and others play clubs, if at all. Longevity is an amalgam of credibility, talent and underlying catalog. The more hits you have, the longer you last. Sell out and your career is shortened. That’s right, despite percentage-takers saying the public does not care, the truth is people believe in musical artists in a way they don’t believe in actors. Adele’s image is burnished by not doing endorsements, by not taking the money, she lives on a higher plane. But in our short term economy everybody says to take it now, for it might not be there tomorrow. But your career might not be there tomorrow… And “25” might not be there tomorrow. History is littered with albums that ran up the chart and fell off nearly as quickly. Now that the music is out, we’ll see if it’s embraced by the public. I’m not saying it won’t be, but no amount of hype, especially about sales figures, is going to make people listen to a record. There’s been too much focus on short term money, the big money is in the long term, never forget it.

5. RULES DON’T APPLY TO SUPERSTARS

Adele can keep her music from streaming services, but can you?

Probably not.

Superstars are in short supply. Therefore their value has skyrocketed. We all want a piece of the big kahuna, we all want to belong. There’s only one Adele. Focus on your uniqueness, me-too disappears easily. And know that the spoils go to the rich, and the rich define the game. Adele can tour stadiums or clubs, paperless or at stratospheric prices. We tend to extrude from stars paths the unwashed can follow. But the truth is stars are different, and if you want that power you have to become a star too. And the greatest stars are sui generis.

6. THE PRESS LOVES A HORSE RACE

That’s what got everybody excited, the race to break ‘N Sync’s record, it dominated the discussion, the music took a back seat, if it was mentioned at all. Proving that media is dumb, they want it bite-sized and related to math. And then they’ll write all about it and the public will get caught up in it and… This is not good for music, because we want people talking about the tunes, not the sales.

7. DON’T IGNORE OLDSTERS

Be sure to read the “Wall Street Journal”‘s expose on who bought “25.” Turns out it’s soccer moms, aged 25-44:

Adele’s Most Fervent Fans? Soccer Moms

Our business is youth-oriented to its detriment. Sure, kids are impulsive and easy to reach, but oldsters have money and care too.

8. RADIO COMES LAST

Slow-moving and over-researched, radio cannot react quickly. And sure, radio went on “Hello,” but the truth is the track lived online, on streaming services, on YouTube. Play to the people, not the middlemen. Furthermore, people don’t want to be spoon-fed, they want it all and they want it now. Which is why Justin Bieber’s new album dominates Spotify, as did the Weeknd’s before it. Radio is an old game that doesn’t square with today, the more you stretch hits out over time the more you lose touch with your audience. If radio was smart, if it wanted to survive, it would play all the new hits right away and throw over what’s successful for new stuff quickly, like Top Forty did in the sixties. That way radio will become relevant and help build careers. But by putting money first and refusing to take chances, radio is sounding its own death knell.

9. QUALITY COUNTS

There was an inane story in yesterday’s “New York Times” stating that Bieber and Selena Gomez resuscitated their careers via social media:

Justin Bieber and Ariana Grande Use an Award Show to Speed a Comeback

No they didn’t, they did it via YouTube and Spotify. If it’s good, we want it, we can’t find enough good stuff. And sure, Adele kept her album off streaming services, but it’s only a matter of time before she caves, after the sales fade and she wants continued listening. If she’s smart, she’ll make the leap soon, while she can still set records, because that’s what her team seems to be into.

10. IMAGE IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS MUSIC

This is a huge sea change in the post video world. Thin and beautiful never hurt, but they’re no longer a requirement. Just ask Meghan Trainor and PSY. A catchy tune breaks through all barriers.

11. THIS SONG IS OVER

Taylor Swift did a good job of keeping herself atop the news cycle, but she too is a party of one. The media will now move on to another story, and “25” will succeed or fail based on its quality and whether it is embraced by the public. Music is not movies, it can’t make all its money in a weekend, and when done right it lasts forever. Adele employed the media to get the story out, to carpet bomb the world into awareness, but now she’s on her own. So start with the music, the story comes second. And a story might gain you attention, but it does not ensure longevity. We’re looking for a few good songs, that everybody knows and can sing along to. It ain’t hard to do, assuming you have the chops and inspiration. And the chops require a huge input of time, never forget Adele spent years in music school, and inspiration…that comes from living your life. Which is why the youngsters rarely have anything to say. We want you to channel the human condition, we want you to make us feel like we belong, that you understand us and will never betray us. That’s what Adele did with “21,” and that history gave her a good start with “25.” The success of “25” still hangs in the balance, despite the sales records, despite the media coverage. Will the public hold the songs near and dear to their heart, will they need to see her in prodigious numbers years from now? We’re going to find out!