Why is it always people without leverage are agitating for change? Those without hits who can see a better way but have no power to make it happen.

Makes me yearn for the old days, when these people did not have a voice. When not only could they not get a label deal, they could not get their music heard.

Want change? Have a hit! Before you do, your statements are meaningless. You’ve got to force people to change, and that does not happen via a better idea. And the music business is intransigent, the techies learned the only way to make progress was to STEAL the music. That’s what they had in common with the promoters and label owners of yore, they had an element of crookdom, they believed the rules didn’t apply to them. But all these agitators for change, they believe Congress should help them out, or that if they just say something long enough about inequity, their opponents will change. Lucian Grainge needs to eat too, baby. And if he doesn’t get returns, he’s gonna lose his job.

All you songwriters bitching about a reduction in royalties. Not only do I want you to give back your synch fees, I want you to stop complaining and change the paradigm. Yes, Pandora should pay more, but when confronted with a loss in royalties the labels did 360 deals, they wanted a larger piece of the pie. If you’re such a damn good songwriter why don’t you hold out for more? If you just bitch that you’re being ripped-off whilst begging artists to record your tunes you’re screwed. Then again, if you write a big hit, you’ve got power. Max Martin can write his own ticket, then again, Max Martin is making a fortune, because he’s not interested in singles or doubles, but home runs, no…GRAND SLAMS!

Unionize your fellow writers, go on strike. Your enemy is the acts covering your tunes, not Spotify or Apple Music. They take your tunes and make millions on the road and give none of that to you. Unfair? Youbetcha.

Furthermore, you’ve got some people on your side. Like Marty Bandier and Irving Azoff. Bandier has been agitating for higher publishing payouts for years. And he uses his catalog as a big stick. Pull Sony Music and you’ve got little left. Irving culled a who’s who of writers and formed his own performing rights organization, without his tunes the outlets are toast.

But they both know the power of leverage and you don’t.

Want to have power in this industry?

Write a hit song. Record it. Then promoters will pay you more than they want to, screaming all the while. Do this before you sign your major label deal and watch the terms change, you’ll get more money, because that’s what labels thrive on, hits.

And if you want to change the industry you’ve got to get the heads of the powers-that-be in a vice. Pandora and Universal are not going to kowtow to a good idea, but if you make it impossible for them to transact business without you…

Then again, the labels learned their lesson, that the digital future was here. So what did they do? Leverage the power of their catalogs to get a percentage of Spotify ownership.

They pay athletes on results. Get big enough and not only can you write your own terms, but force a trade.

But in music everybody thinks they’re LeBron and should be entitled to start and get rich.

Good luck with defying the laws of economics. Which have nothing to do with the internet, they’re immutable!

There’s something happening here
What it is ain’t exactly clear

Those were the words of one Stephen Stills, written back in ’66, when the man tried to cramp the style of the youth, back before Pandora’s Box was paved over and everybody dashed for cash.

How did that work out for the man?

It didn’t. There was a revolution. The war in Vietnam stopped, Woodstock drew hundreds of thousands and not only did rock rule, so did the baby boomers, the establishment was wiped from the landscape in one fell swoop.

You see you can’t argue with the dedicated youth when they’re speaking the truth.

But the youth have lost their way. Growing up in a challenged economy they’ve paid fealty to the almighty dollar. There’s no mystery why rap videos feature Benzes and country lyrics contain alcohol brand names. Because these empty suits were brought up in an era where speaking truth to power was anathema, in other words, we haven’t had that hip-hop spirit here since 1999.

As for the other musical genres, don’t make me laugh.

But HBO is the Warner Music of old. With a faceless king known as Richard Plepler who’s akin to nobody so much as Mo Ostin, who believed in letting the artists rule, that if you follow them, you win in the end, both artistically and financially.

That’s right, most of the other outlets are triangulating, living in fear. Which is why we get empty-headed sitcoms no one can relate to, why there’s no one like you on TV. But on HBO…

This John Oliver thing is fascinating. He’s the thinking man’s Donald Trump. The person who’s speaking the truth not to win in the end, but to point out the folly of our leaders and our country. John Oliver is sticking up for us.

Or, as Michael Moore once asked, “Dude, where’s my country?”

We were led to believe someone was looking after us. Before the right wing declared government uncool and pulled financing from the IRS. Such that we get zillionaire televangelists flying around in private jets. Multiple private jets. Living a tax free lifestyle equivalent to a tech CEO. Start a band? START A RELIGION!

Which is what John Oliver did, mockingly.

But before that he pointed out the fallacy of religion, a third rail topic in America if there ever was one. You’ve got to believe in God, the family and…if you’re a Republican, no abortion, no unions… Corporations are unfettered, but human beings must heel to the mindless and monied who want them to live by their rules.

But not on HBO.

We’re experiencing a revolution. And music is not involved. It started on television. Which makes sense, since we are in the golden age of television.

It turns out you can say that on TV today. And we want to hear it from seasoned players whose minds we respect more than their bodies. Teenagers have no place on HBO. And neither John Oliver nor Bill Maher are models. But what they’re doing is speaking their mind, and they’ve got an army of millions. That’s right, HBO cumulatively speaks to more people than almost every other media outlet. That’s power. And power is much more interesting than money. Because with power you can change the world. It’s easy, like taking candy, from a baby. All you do is point out the follies of the monied, in-power class.

It’s like shooting fish in a barrel.

And John Oliver does this every week.

This is not David Letterman, attitude and nothing more, a loner on the fringe. It’s certainly not Jimmy Fallon, who’s as phony as the teacher’s pet and is most interested in ratings. If I hear another word about how Jimmy harnesses the power of the web…how about harnessing the power of the TRUTH!

But John Oliver, functioning in a ratings free zone, is changing the world.

Everywhere I go this week people are talking about this episode.

And that’s how it starts, via conversation.

After inroads have been made.

In music, you have one hit and you play arenas. But real stars grow slowly, doing great work week after week, with their flock spreading the word.

It’s a new era baby. How long can we listen to corporations tell us they have our best interests at heart? How long can we vote for politicians who are beholden to said corporations? How long can we sit here on the couch until we say…I’M MAD AS HELL AND I’M NOT GONNA TAKE IT ANYMORE!

All the scuttlebutt and the maneuvering about income inequality, it’s irrelevant. The seeds have already been sown. The ball is moving. Change is afoot. Because comedians, from the “South Park” guys to Jon Stewart to John Oliver to the “Simpsons” team, are poking the establishment in the ribs. And while the corporations and their lackeys are busy maneuvering behind closed doors, it’s morning in America, their doorbell is getting ready for the wake-up ding-dong.

Don’t doubt me. This is not the disorganized Occupy movement. This has got nothing to do with the financially-challenged newspapers. This is television, run by the financially solvent HBO, giving power to people who gleefully point out the inanities and inadequacies of life.

To watch John Oliver is to think he’s immune to blowback, that nothing and no one can get to him. That he can keep on speaking the truth. He’s Mr. Smith speaking to Washington, not Bernie Sanders. Oliver’s got the bigger audience.

And “For What It’s Worth” was a hit in ’67 but Woodstock didn’t happen until ’69.

Strap in baby, it’s gonna be a wild ride.

But we’re gonna win in the end.

Because they’ve taken it too far and we’re no longer gonna sit idly by.

They may have all the money, but the truth is on our side.

And truth triumphs.

“The Creative Apocalypse That Wasn’t”

The reason concert tickets are so expensive is because people want to buy them. Furthermore, attendees agitate against paperless ticketing because they want the ability to resell. So promoters have given up trying to control access to the supposed hard core fan. The truth is tickets, although expensive, are in most cases underpriced. Why does everybody want to go?

Because in a world of digitized culture where you spend so much of your time in front of a screen you want something real, and there’s nothing as real as a concert.

Read the above article. Which posits that the ceiling did not fall Chicken Little. Those who said there would be no art in the digital era turned out to be wrong. Not only that, this writer says that musicians are actually doing pretty well, there are more indies receiving more money.

But I doubt you’ll read the article. Because it’s tough to read something that’s antithetical to your world view. The internet killed music, you can’t make money any more, and that’s that. Kind of like those Republicans who cannot admit they’re wrong when confronted with facts. You see it just doesn’t FEEL right!

While you were sleeping, data entered the music business. It may not decide what song’s a hit, but indicators tell labels when to push the button, when they have something hot. Managers, agents and labels track social media and streaming services and when they see something reacting, they push the button. Spotify itself does this. It sees what people are flocking to and then reaches out to help acts have further success. It’s in Spotify’s best interests, the more it helps make hits, the less blowback there is.

But this blowback is incessant.

“In 1999, the national economy supported 1.5 million jobs in that category (Group 27-0000, the Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports and Media Occupations); by 2014 the number had grown to nearly 1.8 million. This means the creative class modestly outperformed the rest of the economy, making up 1.2. percent of the job market in 2001 compared with 1.3 percent in 2014. Annual income for Group 27-0000 grew by 40 percent, slightly more than the O.E.S. average of 38 percent.”

But Group 27-0000 doesn’t include self-employed musicians.

“From 2002 to 2012, the number of businesses that identify as or employ independent artists, writers and performers (which also includes some athletes) grew by almost 40 percent, while the total revenue generated by this group grew by 60 percent, far exceeding the rate of inflation.”

“…in 1999 there were nearly 53,000 Americans who considered their primary occupation to be that of a musician, a music director or composer; in 2014, more than 60,000 people were employed writing, singing or playing music. That’s a rise of 15 percent, compared with overall job-market growth during the period of about 6 percent. The number of self-employed musicians grew at an even faster rate: There were 45 percent more independent musicians in 2014 than in 2001.”

“According to the O.E.S., songwriters and music directors saw their average income rise by nearly 60 percent since 1999. The census version of the story, which includes self-employed musicians, is less stellar: In 2012, musical groups and artists reported only 25 percent more in revenue than they did in 2002, which is basically treading water when you factor in inflation. And yet collectively, the figures seem to suggest that music, the creative field that has been most threatened by technological change, has become more profitable in the post-Napster era – not for the music industry, of course, but for musicians themselves.”

And there you have it, but a few more salient points to round out the topic:

“Part of the answer is that the decline in recorded-music revenue has been accompanied by an increase in revenues from LIVE music. In 1999, when Britney Spears ruled the airwaves, the music business took in around $10 billion in live-music revenue internationally; in 2014, live music generated almost $30 billion in revenue, according to data assembled from multiple sources by the live-music service Songkick. Starting in the early 1980s, average ticket prices for concerts closely followed the rise in overall consumer prices until the mid-1990s, when ticket prices suddenly took off: From 1997 to 2012, average ticket prices rose 150 percent, while consumer prices grew less than 100 percent. It’s elemental economics: As one good – recorded music – becomes ubiquitous, its price plummets, while another good that is by definition scarce (seeing a musician play a live performance) grows in value.”

“The same technological forces that have driven down the price of recorded music have had a similar effect on the cost of making an album in the first place. We easily forget how expensive it was to produce and distribute albums in the pre-Napster era.”

“The vast machinery of promoters and shippers and manufacturers and A&R executives that sprouted in the middle of the 20th century, fueled by the profits of those high-margin vinyl records and CDs, has largely withered away. What remains is a more direct relationship between the musicians and their fans. That new relationship has its own demands: the constant touring and self-promotion, the Kickstarter campaigns that have raised $153 million dollars to date for music-related projects, the drudgery that inevitably accompanies a life without handlers. But the economic trends suggest that the benefits are outweighing the costs. More people are choosing to make a career as a musician or a songwriter than they did in the glory days of Tower Records.”

Expect a flurry of naysayers to come out of the woodwork shortly. The Trichordist will freak out, all those agitating for a return to yesteryear. But the truth is we’re never going back, even if everything Steven Johnson says in this article is wrong. So why can’t we just accept it and move on, certainly the public has done this.

But the industry can’t. The industry can’t get over the fact that recordings are not where the money is, that it’s only the entry point to the gravy train. To see execs complain is like listening to American textile honchos bitching forty odd years ago when production moved overseas. As for bringing manufacturing back to America, a ridiculous left wing/Democratic saw, that will happen when people agree to pay $2000 for a flat screen and $20 for a pair of underwear. You start with hearts and minds, and the public not only likes cheap prices, it likes having the history of recorded music at its fingertips.

So stop complaining. You can make money in music, many are. Yes, the spoils are going to the 1%, but that’s true in all walks of our economy. Turns out there’s a limited number of top-notch execs and a limited number of top-notch musicians. Do you want to go see Taylor Swift for a hundred bucks or the girl down the street for five dollars? Economically the latter seems like a good deal, but the truth is you want to see a star.

The public is happy. Instead of trying to get people to change their minds and go back to a past that you want, better to give them what they want, even better, give them MORE than what they want, new and different. That’s what turns people on, not when they’re corralled and ripped-off, but when they’re enticed.

This article was in the “New York Times.” A publication that itself is challenged by digital disruption. But the truth is the “Times” is the most powerful publication in the world, and what is said there has impact, it does not matter if you agree or even read, the truth is the “Times” sets the agenda, it’s the starting point of the discussion.

And now that this article’s in print, many people will stop worrying about the downtrodden musician or songwriter. After all, worker bees have had to change jobs numerous times, be fleet on their feet, why should musicians get a pass?

You don’t.

These are the good old days.

This is the new normal.

“People are giving up on Apple Music, survey says – 48 percent of Apple Music trialists have stopped using the service, but Apple has denied that claim”

-The Verge

Is Apple Music the new Twitter?

You know they’re in trouble when they respond. Steve Jobs would never do this. Even if their number is accurate, which it certainly ain’t, not in context, it shows they’re anxious and worried about perception.

Let’s go with Apple’s 79%. What qualifies as usage? I ramped up the product the other day, but I haven’t used it for weeks, whereas Spotify’s my main man, so am I one of the faithful?

Of course not.

The bottom line is Apple broke the number one precept of software…USABILITY!

Early adopters complained and as a result many never even tried the app. That’s what bad word of mouth will do for you. It’s the opposite of the iPod phenomenon, wherein people clamored to be a member of the tribe and ultimately switched their whole ecosystem to Apple.

Remember when Twitter was burgeoning? When we all live tweeted awards shows and sporting events? Back before we found out the service was a desert where you only got wet by pissing on yourself? Twitter’s a good place to find raw news, it’s a terrible place to communicate. Apple Music has got all the tunes right there, but trying to find them amidst your MP3s and the playlists ultimately becomes so frustrating that you tune out.

So where does this leave us?

In a world where Taylor Swift loses. That’s right, yesterday’s hero is getting pummeled in the Nordics, where CDs are dead and Spotify rules. Proving if you’re not everywhere, you’re barely anywhere. Just ask Dr. Dre, the Beatles of hip-hop, whose album was decimated by a pretty boy country star known as Luke Bryan. It’s like John Lennon’s new album being killed by Peter Frampton’s. The one AFTER “Comes Alive.”

So we’ve learned everything we know is wrong. Apple is not infallible and exclusives are anathema. We don’t need anyone, everyone can be forgotten.

Not that Apple Music will gain no subscribers. But when the free trial is up, it will be operating with one hand behind its back. Because once you’re gone, it’s so hard to get you back, after someone has kicked the tires and left, they rarely come back. Just ask a car company. When you turn in your car they’ll bend over backward to write off excess miles and damage if you’ll just re-lease, they want you in the family.

Which is why you have to do such a good job of keeping people in the family to begin with, which is why you can’t misstep.

Recently Apple’s been the homeland of missteps. First with the U2 album. Didn’t anybody there foresee trouble? Of course not, because they’re in the bubble. And no one can mesmerize the recording industry like Jimmy Iovine, he’s one of them, so he convinced everyone Apple Music was gonna win. The only problem is he forgot to tell the people who might make it a success, the customers, the listeners. It’s like Jimmy ignored the history of the internet, where the middleman is excised and the relationship between product and end user is king. Jimmy’s locked up hitsdailydouble.com, and if you think anybody takes that site seriously you believe no one pays them for ink. An endless circle jerk. But now it’s Apple Music.

So, Apple entered the sphere and failed to save us. That’s right, all you bitching about Spotify who were waiting for the white knight, he’s not coming. There is no Trojan Horse, while we’re on the equine tip. Because Apple Music is a me-too product that works poorly and was marketed barely at all. Sure, the business press covered it but there’s crickets on the interwebs, where the word is spread. The Tidal stars got everybody talking about their service in a day, but the world’s richest corporation could not achieve this.

Meanwhile, the clueless keep testifying about Apple’s supposed victories. The power of Beats 1, that it’s reinventing radio. Ain’t that a laugh, one professional deejay and a bunch of wannabes, if this is the future I want no part of it.

Deejaying is a professional occupation. As is tech. Sure, marketing is an element, but that’s not what built Google. Marketing was secondary to all the internet phenoms. Was Facebook built on marketing?

But Facebook was the anti-MySpace. It just worked when the service Fox bought did not. What a concept! Furthermore, you had to use your real name and Zuckerberg kept improving the product, adding new features. You were excited to hook up with your old friends, you enjoyed building a monument to yourself. But even the musicians don’t want to play on Connect. How many times can you fail at a social network before you give up? This is two strikes, isn’t that enough in internet time, can you say “PING!”

The artists don’t like the future and the labels hate it too and the only ones who are happy are the consumers, who suddenly have the history of recorded music at their fingertips. For free, on YouTube. If you want to get them to pay you’ve got to provide a BETTER experience than YouTube. But I can Google any song and find it immediately on the video service but I can’t even find my own MP3s on Apple Music, at least not quickly. As for the vaunted curation/playlists, I’ll admit knowing what to listen to is a problem, but it’s SECONDARY to payment. Somehow people figure out how to find YouTube clips and play them a hundred million times, with no help. Playlists are a sideshow, not the main affair.

And so is most music. We’re in the superstar era. You’re famous or you’re not. And if you’re not, no amount of streaming payment rejiggering is gonna make you rich. Rather, the rich will get richer and you will be ignored.

So what I know is streaming has won. Done. Vinyl, CDs and MP3s…HISTORY! It’s just a matter of where you stream and whether people get paid for it. Hell, almost all services pay 70% to rights holders.

Right now people are not running to Apple Music.

But the good thing is people are listening, they want to consume the product, whereas most have dropped out of Twitter and have no desire to return.

If only Apple could have a continuing freemium element, if only it could issue a mea culpa and admit its flaws and relaunch with a better, simpler, easier to use product…

But that’s impossible, they don’t have the right to go freemium. Oh, they could negotiate to do so, but the major labels don’t want it, they want freemium to go away.

So…

Divorce MP3s from streaming music. Those are two different apps. Just like you took podcasts out of iTunes on the handset.

Focus on breaking acts on Apple Music, not on Beats 1. Where people can go online and listen whenever they want.

Forget Connect.

Break artists on the service. Then the industry will be happy.

But the hundred year war with Spotify has just begun.

And if Spotify could just hire a designer, it’d have a great advantage, Apple’s graphics are so much better.

But the truth is most consumers are sitting on the sideline, because of the bad word of mouth, on Spotify by musicians, on Apple Music by users. And this hurts monetization.

Like I’ve said, we need an “I Want My MTV!” campaign for paid, on demand streaming music services. California gets everyone to reduce water consumption and in music we say if we can’t take a shower all day, we’re fine if everybody goes thirsty and dies of dehydration.

Apple Music was not the solution.

Focus on building the sphere.

And then let the best service succeed.

P.S. And, once again, only one service will win in each territory, one will have 60%+ market share, just like Google in search and the rest of the internet behemoths.

P.P.S. Streaming didn’t kill sound quality and streaming didn’t kill the album and streaming didn’t rob your bank. Stop the blame game and figure out how to win in the new era.

P.P.P.S. This is just the beginning. We’re in the hunt for a new Apple. We may be in the wilderness re UI simplicity and easy usability, that may have died with Steve Jobs, but if you believe Apple’s gonna win in the future, you’re gonna take Tim Cook and Jony Ive to a hackathon. GOOD LUCK WITH THAT!