1. You’re a musician, not a recording artist.

It’s 2015 and not only have recording revenues declined, the whole world of music has gone topsy-turvy. Yes, there are a few superstars who base their careers on successful recordings, but everybody else is now a player, destined to a life on stage. This ain’t gonna change, this is the new reality. You can make an album, have fun, but don’t expect people to buy it or listen to it. The audience wants an experience. You’re better off honing your presentation than getting a good drum sound on hard drive. Your patter is more important than the vocal effects achieved in the studio. You’re back to where you once belonged, a performer. Be ready for a life on the road. Look for places to play. People love a good time. If you deliver one, you’ll get more work.

2. Festival gigs are the leg up.

Sure, there are headliners at the festival, but most acts are there for the exposure. The festival pays your bills and exposes you to new fans. You must deliver at the festival gig, you must be so good that people talk about you. It’s where the rubber meets the road, it’s your opportunity to ignite word of mouth, and word of mouth is everything in the new music business.

3. Agitate for better streaming payments but don’t focus on it.

Streaming is just one source of income. And for everybody who performs live, it’s de minimis. Most of the money is made elsewhere. To focus on streaming revenues is to get hung up on your tire brand as opposed to your car. Streaming won, it’s the public’s music consumption mode of choice, your goal is to get people to stream/hear your music so they’re curious enough to see you live, or check you out when you’re on the undercard at the festival.

4. Transparency.

I’m all for clearer accounting, I’m all for recording artists taking more of record company revenues. But this is now dominating the debate when the truth is it’s a sideshow. And isn’t it interesting how live is so completely different. Sure, accounting is not perfect live, promoters inflate costs and hide revenue. But the truth is on the road acts make the lion’s share of the money. The guarantees are insane. Your goal is to get enough fans such that your guarantee goes up. Better to have an agent interested in your act than an A&R man.

5. Hits don’t guarantee live business.

Iggy Azalea can barely sell a ticket and Wilco hasn’t ever had a hit but performs to thousands a night. Who do you want to be? Of course you want to be Wilco, believe me.

6. Live is freedom.

You can do whatever you want on stage. As long as the people respond and come back, you’re in control, you’re winning. Whereas labels are always telling you to employ a cowriter, to do it their way. You want to do it your way, believe me.

7. Talent is more important than looks.

Looks sell newspapers, they generate clicks. But they don’t sell tickets. And you’re in the ticket selling business. MTV died. And that paradigm did with it. Just because the media world has not caught on and trumpeted the result that does not mean it’s not true.

8. Live lasts, hits don’t.

Let’s be clear, a hit song lives on in people’s memories. But I challenge most of America to sing two songs from Taylor Swift’s new album. For all the hype about Ms. Swift, the truth is she’s someone everybody knows, but few know her music. She’s a huge niche artist. And she’s the biggest artist in the world. It’s even worse for One Direction, the other biggest act in the world, most people can’t even sing one song, even if more than a few know who Harry Styles is. This is so different from the way it used to be, when we had ubiquity, when everybody knew Frank Sinatra’s “Strangers In The Night,” both youngsters and oldsters. With everybody in control of the remote, we’ve learned that most don’t want any one thing. That’s why a hugely successful TV show has ten million viewers and late nighters like Fallon only do a couple of million (in a nation of 300+ million!) Disconnect from the hype network, none of these entities are that big. Which gives you a giant opportunity. You can find your fan base and grow it. Just don’t expect it to include everyone and don’t believe you’re entitled to it. If no one wants to see you live, you should probably find another line of work. But almost no one wants to see you when you’re new. Which means you must slog it out, paying your dues, until you find what makes you unique. And music is all about uniqueness, doing something everybody else does not. Me-too is for the radio, not for the stage. If you’re not the type who perseveres, if you’re not willing to forgo not only college, but creature comforts, you’re never going to build a lasting career.

9. Summer/Schmummer

Carly Rae Jepsen might have one of the biggest summer hits of the twenty first century, but Tedeschi Trucks has a larger core audience and does better live business and the band has NEVER had a hit! Song of the Summer is a construct for the media, it’s meaningless in the music business at large.

10. Chops are everything.

Practice. Once you’re competent, then you can improvise, then you can take chances. And great art is always about taking chances.

11. Michael Rapino, not Lucian Grainge.

Watch Rapino on Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money.” Listen to the numbers. Rapino is the anti-label guy, as are all promoters. It’s not about them, but the acts. A label will tell you acts come and go, but Live Nation and AEG are building relationships forever. Promoters pay your bills. Promoters want to serve you. You have leverage over promoters. Promoters are in bed with you. Furthermore, the faces don’t change, they’re lifers, there to build your career with you. Labels get new CEOs, but Paul Tollett has been running Coachella from its inception.

“Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino: The Changing Face Of Music – Mad Money – CNBC”

12. Music is everywhere!

People want it, and that’s a good thing. And they will continue to. It’s just a matter of adjusting to the way they want to consume it. The public wants to graze online, they want tracks, not albums. And they want to be able to research you and know more about you, which is why you must have an online presence.

13. Know who your fans are.

It’s all about the data. That’s why Facebook and Google are flourishing. They know who their users are, and they utilize their habits and preferences to hook them up with advertisers. You’re the product. You can connect directly with your fan base online. It doesn’t matter how many likes you’ve got or Facebook friends or YouTube views. Those are nearly meaningless statistics utilized to quantify something elusive. They can be faked and every few years we switch platforms and start counting all over again. Your career is forever. It’s about knowing who your fans are and how to reach them. Not overloading them and playing primarily to them. Your fans own you, not the radio station or the media. Your fans will support you. And most of your fans are not vocal, they will not click or tweet or send you e-mail but they’ll show up and buy merch. Play to them, otherwise you’re just a celebrity. Celebrities go on game shows, open shopping centers and stand for nothing. You’re a musician, you lead with your music…PLAY IT!

“Next up: Neil Young’s announcement that he is pulling his music from streaming services because of poor sound quality. ‘He’s a cranky old man,’ says Blodget. ‘Not to get all academic, but that is one of the hallmarks of disruptive technology. They’re not as good, they’re just good enough. People hear disruptive technology and they think, “Oh, someone invented something better.” Actually, no. It’s usually worse. But it’s cheaper, faster, and easier, and it gets better over time.'”

“Henry Blodget Is in the Middle of Another Tech Boom, With a New Product to Sell”

Straight outta Clayton Christensen, but I wouldn’t expect Neil Young to have read “The Innovator’s Dilemma.”

Why, in a country so focused on smart, is everybody so stupid? Own your intelligence, educate yourself, marketing does not trump everything.

MP3s did not sound as good as CDs. But they were cheap and easy to acquire and portable and the disc had no chance. Furthermore, even Apple started selling higher resolution, and now you can stream at a higher quality on Deezer and Tidal.

Not everybody can afford an iPhone. Not everybody wants to pay for an iPhone. Look at the worldwide numbers, iOS is dwarfed by Android. Android may be susceptible to malware, may not be as intuitive, but it’s cheap and good enough for most people. Which is why Apple’s worldwide market share caved.

You cannot deny the future. You can try to milk profits from a declining past, but you cannot prop it up. The history of the internet era is those who cling to the past get overridden by those living in the future. You can be a Luddite, but it does not serve you well.

AC/DC is now on iTunes. As is Bob Seger.

And if you don’t believe Neil Young will end up on streaming services you think the man from old Ontario doesn’t like money, but the truth is he does.

Please don’t get caught up in the sideshow. You don’t have to go to business school to be familiar with Clayton Christensen’s theories, you don’t even have to read his book, but you can start by reading the Wikipedia page: http://bit.ly/1JEiXjH And you can do a bit more research, the internet is not only good for link-bait and social networking.

And know that the reason the techies are so successful is they’re willing to go where the artists refuse, boldly into the future. It’s a bizarre twist on the “Twilight Zone” episode “To Serve Man.” To avoid being eaten, educate yourself.

—————————————

“Across the board, from the bottom to the top, the music industry is built on people pretending to be bigger than they are.”

An Interview with Artist and Composer Zoe Keating

Or as Jerry Heller once told me… A reporter asked him how many albums Ruthless Records sold… SEVENTY MILLION! The reporter believed Jerry. Jerry looked at me and said…”My company, my number.”

I could tell you not to believe everything you read, but you already know that. But you don’t know that most of the controversies in the music world are fake, done for publicity, for attention, and you’re gonna have a hard time legislating transparency in a world where no one wants it.

That’s Ms. Keating’s point. That the indie artists don’t want transparency because that will illustrate how tiny their audience truly is.

And believe me, the superstars don’t want it either. So many of their sold-out dates weren’t. Household names you adore have papered their shows.

But in a world where the government is whored out and there’s little chance for advancement the public/fans believe the stories in order to enrich their lives. They want to believe Neil Young is standing up for them, against the bogeyman. Taylor Swift is infallible and you’d better not say anything bad about people’s heroes.

But the truth is they’re human, just like you. Flesh and blood. Flawed.

Artists used to sell this message. Before they realized America was a giant casino where you had to have money to play and if you didn’t you couldn’t get a seat at the table.

So everybody’s lying. To you, and oftentimes themselves.

A lot of what you think is big is not. Artifice rules, just read Larry Butler’s piece on artist bios:

A Tribute to the Artist Bio Writer

I don’t even read them, they’re laden with untruths. But the truth is lame media outlets repeat them word for word and you believe them.

Those who win don’t believe. They’re not wedded to the past.

You can tell us how many Twitter followers you’ve got, even though you bought many, you can trumpet your Facebook likes, but only you know the darkness of your bank account, only you know you’re broke.

Or to quote the same damn man, who used to focus on writing good songs as opposed to business, where his skills do not lie…

EVERYBODY KNOWS THIS IS NOWHERE!

P.S. If you’ve got more time, and if not you should make some, read the 2012 “New Yorker” article on Clayton Christensen –

“When Giants Fail, What business has learned from Clayton Christensen”

Nate Silver wrote the definitive story on Donald Trump and nobody knows it.

That’s right, America’s favorite statistician, the diviner of data, the man who makes sense out of chaos, analyzed the polls and found out that while Trump had the highest rating, his unfavorables were through the roof. In other words, only a small percentage of GOP voters favored him, uneducated on the issues to boot, and when the field consolidated, Trump would be history.

But unlike during the last election cycle, Nate Silver is no longer on the front page of the “New York Times,” and therefore his insights have no traction. In other words, the bloviating press that loves a horse race is going on about the success of Donald Trump when the truth is contrary to the hubbub.

It’s kind of like making a hit record that only plays on your local college radio station.

The old days of the internet are through. The ones wherein greatness surfaced and we were all the better for it. Today, you’ve got to attach your track to the coattails of an entity with a large audience, otherwise you’re just pissing in the wind.

How did we get here, how did it come to this?

The cacophony, the sheer plethora of information.

Furthermore, the Silver situation proves that the stuff with ink, that gets most attention, may not be the best. Which is why, in the music business, we’ve got story after story about the flavor of the moment that does not resonate with you when you check it out.

So what do we know…

He with the greatest audience wins, irrelevant of veracity or quality.

The “New York Times” survives, Nate Silver is marginalized. If you’re going it alone, be prepared to enter the wilderness, and possibly stay there. Because concomitant with the footprint of the powerhouses is the inability to compete with them. Bing proved this, Google was good enough. If you’re not reinventing the wheel, stay out of the fracas.

Meanwhile, our nation is going to look different in the years to come. Truth will out. Because a younger generation has grown up on facts, and they refuse to live in denial. It’s baby boomers who are blowhards, who believe if they just yell loud enough what they say will come true. But when numbers can be marshaled that contradict common wisdom, watch out.

This is the same battle over transparency that the Berklee report stirred up. If you think the labels are gonna get away with voodoo royalty reports in the future, you’re probably still using a flip-phone. As the oldsters retire, the young ‘uns bring in new models.

So what we’ve learned is you’re better off playing with the big boys than going it alone. Forget all the hogwash about independence, being able to make your record and release it yourself. To crickets in most instances. Macklemore may have been on an indie LABEL, but it was promoted by the major’s MACHINE! If you’re playing for all the marbles, don’t play by yourself.

And just because a record is number one, that doesn’t mean much. The latest statistics tell us that streaming services are a hotbed of catalog. The truth is that at least half the audience would rather listen to the certified oldies than forage for new stuff. Which is why the legends do such incredible live business. The industry doesn’t like this emphasis on catalog, it gets excited about the new, labels invest heavily in the new. Did you read the dearly departed Dave Goldberg’s report to the Sony brass? He said to cut costs on new and focus on old. But his story got buried, pardon the pun.

And know that the reason so much of the Top Forty, what is in the news, doesn’t spread, is because it’s just not good enough. It appeals to a very small hard core. And the truth is the most money in music is made when something appeals to everybody. So, our industry would be healthier if we got consensus and put a push behind that which got the most favorable response. And that will happen, when the millennials take over.

So what we’ve learned is it’s not you. You’re right, the media industrial complex is frequently hyping crap, and that which doesn’t fit its paradigm, however great, is lost in the tsunami of information.

Nate Silver turned chaos into comprehension. Read his report and you’ll see that Trump is a marginal player who can’t win. But few know this.

We’re waiting for the music business to turn chaos into comprehension. The problem is it’s run by old farts inured to the old ways. Obfuscating so they can line their own pockets. Imagine if we researched more records and then pushed those with the most favorable ratings. Would the chart look the same?

Of course not.

Nate Silver – “Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates”

Dave Goldberg – “Re: Music strategy-confidential”

All summer long, we spent dancin’ in the sand
And the jukebox kept on playin’
Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band

That’s your image of SoCal, I know. Beach bunnies and surfboards. Endless summer sunsets.

But the truth is that’s not the way it’s been this summer.

What has happened down here is the wind have changed
Clouds roll in from the north and it started to rain

Actually, from the south. A tropical storm. And it’s been debated whether there will be any drought impact. You see it has to rain in the mountains to make a difference, as snow in the Sierras, and they did get some hail there, but next year’s predicted El Nino? They’re wondering if it’s going to be a southern affair.

And the truth is Randy Newman’s “Good Old Boys” was not a raging success. Got a ton of hype, back when there were fewer albums and it made more of a difference, but this was before his hits, before “Short People” and “I Love L.A.,” and the only people who bought “Good Old Boys” were fans, and there weren’t many of them.

And then something strange happened. “Louisiana 1927” became the soundtrack to Katrina. As if Randy Newman predicted it. I’m sure he got a chuckle out of that, despite the tragedy.

But the truth is whenever it rains in L.A., which is rare, I sing Randy’s song. Now it’s everybody’s song. But I was there first!

The next time you see L.A. rain clouds
Don’t complain, it rains for you and me

That’s from “Mamunia,” the opening cut on the second side of “Band On The Run.”

People forget that McCartney was in kind of a lull. His debut was a smash, albeit not as big as a Beatles record and ultimately competing with “Let It Be,” but what came after…

“Ram” wasn’t as good, but compared to what’s issued today…

And then the execrable “Wild Life.” Nobody bought it, nobody listened to it.

And then “Red Rose Speedway.” With its sappy, syrupy “My Love,” which was so overplayed as to make you puke. However, “Red Rose Speedway”‘s opening cut, “Big Barn Bed,” may be forgotten today but it contains Paul’s essence, just listen to the vocal!

Still, the album didn’t sell so well.

And then came “Band On The Run.”

Expectations were low. “Helen Wheels” was stripped in, to ensure some sales.

But then “Rolling Stone” declared it to be one of the albums of the year and I laid my money down and the opening track blew me away.

That’s right, once upon a time “Band On The Run,” the track, was unknown, just like “Hotel California” three years later. These were not the songs the label led with, so you only knew them if you purchased the albums… You’ve got no idea what it was like to drop the needle on “Hotel California” and hear it for the very first time, same deal with “Band On The Run.” You had no frame of reference. You were hanging out there alone. And when it was done you found yourself in a cocoon of excellence desirous of telling everybody you knew.

Anyway, it was back when we still played albums, so I knew “Mamunia” by heart, and I sing the above lyrics when it rains in L.A. too. Sometimes before “Louisiana 1927,” sometimes after.

But this summer I’m singing Johnny Rivers’s “Summer Rain.”

Summer rain taps at my window
West wind soft as a sweet dream
My love warm as the sunshine
Sittin’ here by me, she’s here by me

“Summer Rain” was a hit in the winter. Kind of like “Summer Breeze” was a hit over Thanksgiving. People forget this stuff, but not me, not me.

And “Summer Rain” reminded me of all the good times during July and August, camp and trips and…

Listening to “Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band.” Which I did for a week that summer, when my parents were in Europe and I stayed at Michael Meltzer’s house before we left for Philmont, it was the only record I had.

She stepped out of a rainbow
Golden hair shinin’ like moon glow
Warm lips soft as a soul
Sittin’ here by me, she’s here by me

That’s what’s been lost in the transition to now, the optimism of the sixties. That’s right, the decade of turmoil was inundated with hope. We believed things would only get better. With the music and our significant other by our side.

We sailed into the sunset
Drifted home, caught by a gulf stream
Never gave a thought for tomorrow
Just let tomorrow be, now, let tomorrow be

Ain’t that a joke. People tell you to live in the moment. Not anymore, if you’re not moving forward today you’re going backward. And you don’t want to be left behind. But back then, our public education and our middle class values were all we needed to get along, we were caught up in the now, knowing tomorrow was full of possibilities, when we eventually got there.

She wants to live in the Rockies
She says that’s where we’ll find peace
Settle down, raise up a family
To call our own, yeah, we’ll have a home

This was back before airline deregulation. You might have lived in the Rockies, if not, you hadn’t been there.

And we all wanted peace. Today, everybody’s a warmonger.

And the song portends the seventies, when we all settled down, looked in as opposed to out, forgot about the Great Society and just tried to survive.

The snow drifts by my window
North wind blowin’ like thunder
Our love’s burnin’ like fire
And she’s here by me, yeah, she’s here with me
Let tomorrow be

If it rains in the summer, we’ve already broken the July record, does that mean it will snow in the winter?

Doubtful. All bets are off. Climate change has us wonderin’.

But this great big world keeps turnin’. And there’s something new around each and every corner. But what gets us through is our music and loved ones.

While we watch the summer rain slide down our windows and contemplate…

How did it come to this?

Rhinofy-Summer Rain