Talk about paying your dues…

John Oliver was a second, maybe a third banana on the “Daily Show” until he replaced Jon Stewart when the host was on a hiatus and ended up with his own half hour program on HBO on Sunday night.

This is contrary to the music business, where youth rules and the experienced are thrown over the transom. In music it’s the behind the curtain people who are the stars, the producers, the executives…

But on HBO they let the talent run free.

Remind you of anything?

Nothing so much as the Warner Brothers Records of the seventies, history’s most legendary label, wherein the biggest stars of the era were allowed to do what they wanted and sales soared, oftentimes not on their first LPs, but their third, fourth or fifth.

All the press is about Fallon.

But it’s Oliver who’s winning.

But we know the press is a step behind.

But we also know the world is changing, truth is key, honesty and credibility are calling cards. The cardboard stars flog their popcorn projects on Fallon because he’s nice all the time. Know anybody like that in real life? I certainly don’t. Whereas there are no guests on Oliver’s show, no promotional elements, only skewering of the truth via research and presentation.

Research, what a concept.

Oliver’s team puts in a better effort than the 24 hour news channel known as Fox, never mind its competitors, who believe what’s on screen is the only thing that counts. Roger Ailes is a genius! Hail Caesar!

Hail the man who Trump has tied in knots, the Donald refusing to even debate, and ultimately defeating the handpicked candidates of the Fox, er, Republican, establishment.

Oliver’s 22 minute take-down of Trump drew 22 million views on YouTube.

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Donald Trump (HBO)

While we make it ever shorter, more bite-sized, with more hooks, Oliver is taking the viewers on a journey, thrilling them along the way. “Whipping Post,” indeed.

Oliver has 82.2 million online views of his political clips online. Yup, that includes not only YouTube, but Facebook, Instagram, Twitter…

Fallon only has 62.7 million. Colbert 30.7. Kimmel 23.6.

So if you achieve excellence, and have distribution, you can make it.

How many excellent records are being released? Even the superstar product is blah.

But watching Oliver every week stimulates me, I’m riveted as he speaks truth, which I can get nowhere else.

How come every damn act is whoring itself out to corporations but Oliver does not. HBO is the no endorsement platform. People expect truth from HBO, not from records.

Who would know that Greta Van Susteren lauded American men on International Women’s Day.

Start at 2:30 – John Oliver Calls Out The International Women’s Day Shout-Out That Fox News Really

Where else can you find a reasoned analysis of the Apple encryption case, which is not so much about the Cupertino company and the government, but hackers.

Where else can you get a techie criticizing failed legislator logic by saying they think “If we can put a man on the moon, well surely we can put a man on the sun.”

Our society is changing, BECAUSE of the tools.

That’s the story of the year, that tech has taken a back seat, and what it has been utilized for is key.

Trump employed Nationbuilder to organize, get the word out.

The Antiwar Activist Who Helped Make Donald Trump Possible

And Oliver is employing online video to disseminate the truth.

And if you read the papers, look at the media, you’d believe Oliver is a distant also-ran.

But the truth is he’s winning, despite lacking the endless puff pieces and hosannas.

Everything you know is wrong. The Firesign Theatre was right. And if the nitwits in Washington, D.C. believe the rank and file care about getting an anti-abortion, pro-Citizens United Supreme Court justice… Then they still think that people want fewer taxes on the rich so gays can’t get married and immigrants can’t steal their jobs.

There’s the classic Republican position right there.

But homey don’t play that no more. Trump doesn’t want to cut entitlements, people know the truth…

That they’re broke without opportunity.

And you can contradict this all you want, from up on high, but the numbers don’t lie, people are gravitating to truth, honesty and the American Way!

Numbers from Tubular Labs via the WSJ:

How Late-Night Comics Tackle the Election

Don’t take no for an answer. But when their product is in the marketplace to no acclaim, to little adoption, they pivot.

He who is invested in the present will get lost in the future.

Founders remember when they were broke, what it took to gain traction, managers can do only thus. Which is why Apple is failing under Tim Cook yet burgeoned under Steve Jobs. Jobs remembered working in the garage, hustling… When Steve came back to Apple he was willing to make the big decisions, the big leaps forward, he slimmed the product line, narrowed the focus and went all in on an advertising campaign that satisfied himself, not focus groups. If you’re not willing to leave some people out, you will never succeed. Play to somebody, not everybody. Remember when Jobs famously said he was ceding the enterprise to focus on education? Today education is owned by the Chromebook. You must own something or you own nothing. Right now Apple has a huge footprint in mobile phones, but worldwide iOS is dwarfed by Android. Will the next great leap forward come from Apple? Probably not, probably from another outsider with nothing to lose who has pivoted from failure to success. There is no founder left at Apple, it’s to their detriment. There are no founders left at the major record labels, to their detriment. With the roll-up of live entertainment scrappy founders have been eviscerated, centralized buying might do well for the bottom line today, but hampers you in the future, there’s no one with their ear to the ground taking chances locally, and concert promotion will always be a local business.

Founders are not hampered by their education. The reason so many successful entrepreneurs never finished college is because college too often puts you in a box, tells you how to think, emphasizes no instead of yes.

Founders have vision, and although they should never stop listening to the input of others, they must make decisions based on their own inner tuning fork. The difference between failure and success is often 1%. Something resonates with the public or not. The founder is the barometer of that 1%, he knows what works and what doesn’t. For every story of a label forcing an act to make a hit single, there are tons more of acts defying labels and refusing to cave and ultimately having success. The record company didn’t want to put out John Cougar Mellencamp’s “American Fool,” but he stood his ground and “Hurts So Good” became a huge hit and he can still do good business today. Whereas he who is molded by the man is forgotten tomorrow.

Society tries to make the renegades conform, yet ultimately flocks to the renegades. It’s a conundrum, I know. Rubio said what the Republican brass wanted to hear, Trump said what the Republican rank and file wanted to hear. You either work for the man or are the man, make your decision.

Timing is everything. He who goes out on a limb may find his ass on the ground if it’s too early, his rewards may be reaped by someone following in his path.

Rule-breakers are excoriated until they are embraced. If you can’t handle the hatred, work for the man.

Backward compatibility is a recipe for death. If you’re not willing to toss over the past, you will not win in the future. Best example, Microsoft. And if you think owners are bitching because the MacBook only has a USB-C connector, you don’t own one.

You’re broke, then money comes in hand over fist, then you triumph by working the edges. When someone is working the edges, employing subterfuge and leverage, you know it’s time for them to be disrupted, they’re too inured to the past, the way things have been done, their profit, to take a risk.

Failure is not a badge of honor because of the loss, but because of the experience. The reason VCs invest in those who have failed is because they’ve been in the trenches, they’ve learned lessons. No one likes failure, no one wants to invest in failure, it’s not a badge of honor, but it does build character.

Founders are willing to bet the farm, they’re all in. They’re the crazy people who will bankrupt you, but they’re also the people who will make you rich. The most successful artists are the most impossible people.

Founders have incredible insight, incredible powers of analysis. That’s what separates the winners from the losers, the ability to see that which no one else can. You’re born with some of it, but most you learn through experience and education. It’s about putting the pieces of the puzzle together, not knowing just one specific piece, otherwise you’re just a cog in their game.

Founders don’t fight unwinnable battles. If there’s no point of entry, if the odds of success are low, they don’t start.

Founders often twist their past experience into a new venture. Simon Cowell didn’t burgeon until he took his A&R act to TV. And he triumphed because he didn’t change who he was, he didn’t sand off his rough edges once he was in the public eye. America hates a phony.

Founders don’t tell people what they want to hear, they give them what they need.

A founder knows when to jump to the big time, when to compromise, when to do that deal. He understands that success breeds new opportunities and you must make deals to grow. He who is unwilling to change, unwilling to be expedient, should be avoided at all costs. This sounds like a contradiction, but really it’s all just nuance. You’ve got to stick to your guns on the song, but if it’s twenty minutes long you’ve got to let the label do a radio edit. If you’re making money by manufacturing in your basement, you must be willing to source overseas to produce 100 or 1000x cheaper, even if it means ceding some management and ownership functions. We live in a society, and he who needs to function alone forever never wins.

Founders can be assholes, but if they’re successful we’ll tolerate nearly every personality. But it’s very hard to be that successful right out of the gate. People skills are key, but never sacrifice your backbone.

Experienced professionals will tell you you’re on the wrong path. But founders can see something they can’t. If you’re moving forward on sheer passion and desire and everybody else is saying no you’re probably not on a path to victory. But if you’re playing three-dimensional chess when they can only see two, you’ve got a chance.

Enterprise topples when it does its job too well.

And right now the major labels are doing an exceptional job, especially for themselves.

Forget the old turn of the century construct, that the labels were doomed because of the internet. Turned out when chaos reigns he with the most infrastructure and relationships wins. If you’re not on a major, it’s nearly impossible to get noticed. And despite recorded revenue being down, most labels now share in ancillary income, from live to merchandise. The labels have adjusted.

By only releasing pop music, that which can instantly sell.

The labels are not stupid, they’re helmed by brilliant, experienced gentlemen, who realize the investment in money and manpower it takes to make a hit. So, they’ve gravitated to only that which will hit. If you make music outside today’s hit paradigm, which is primarily pop and urban, you can’t get signed.

This blind spot will be the death of them.

The same way it was the death of Geffen Records.

That name is still in use, but the company itself has been eviscerated, because Geffen refused to sign rap. And then rap dominated and the company folded.

Can today’s majors fold?

Look at publishing. The inroads made by Kobalt are remarkable. Because Kobalt provides the one thing traditional publishers do not, transparency.

Since inception not only have record labels given artists bad deals, they haven’t even paid on those deals. You can’t get an accurate accounting, and the deals are written to ensure that you don’t. But with Kobalt, you can access all your info on a regular basis.

Transparency is coming to the recorded music side. As well as fairer deals.

But it will require a few outliers to sacrifice their careers for it.

Curt Flood was an exceptional baseball player. But today he’s known primarily for opening the floodgates of free agency. Used to be owners made all the money, franchise holders were not bitching about losing cash, the players were indentured servants.

But not after Curt Flood.

Who will sacrifice themselves for the good of today’s music industry?

Well, unlike sports, there’s no league, the barrier to entry in music is exceptionally low. However the ability to get noticed is nearly impossible.

But there’s a huge swath of listeners who reject the pop and urban tropes. They’re looking for something deeper, new and different, who is going to satisfy them?

Probably not the acts already in existence. The truth is the outlier triumphs when it becomes exceptional, and we don’t have a plethora of acts ignored by the mainstream despite being world class. We’ve got a lot of fans saying they’re world class, but the music itself? Most people can take or leave it, mostly the latter. But what if there’s a sound everybody wants?

The majors are not in the incubation business. They want you to prove success before they’re interested. But what if you proved success and refused to sign? What if someone opened the floodgates and a bunch of acts poured through.

It will happen.

Because it happened before, many times.

There was the British Invasion, the San Francisco sound, the Philly sound, the Seattle sound, the hip-hop revolution. But each time the winners signed with the majors, what if they don’t?

Like I said, the forebears will probably get screwed. But when the leader of a new sound breaks down the walls, a lot of players could come through.

Kind of like in EDM. A scene dominated by indies, Live Nation paid quite handsomely for its foothold in the business. Today that’s where outsiders start, live. You generate sales and the big boys come ‘a knockin’.

But EDM’s penetration into mainstream recorded music has been minimal. Influential, but minimal.

Furthermore, we haven’t had a musical revolution this century, just endless refinements of the same damn sounds, pop and hip-hop. Do you think this will go on forever?

Of course not, but the major labels will not institute the change, outsiders will.

The majors have no incentive, they’ve refined their business practices, they’re engines of profit and success.

Whereas startups are engines of starvation, with many blind alleys.

You don’t start outside as a supernova, you evolve there, via trial and error. But today’s acts don’t want to do this, they’re inured to the instant rich and famous paradigm, whether it be Bieber or Kardashian, they want some of that. The music is secondary to the celebrity, the Fortune 500 foot the bill.

But chances are the corporations will want nothing to do with the breakthrough artists, who are in it for the music and are not only talented and experienced, but have something to say.

The corporations wanted nothing to do with the Beatles, they were too scruffy…and then everybody wanted a piece.

Major corporations ran from hip-hop, now they embrace it.

If you’re looking for instant acceptance, you’re not a rule-breaker who will break the hegemony.

An individual has incredible power. A scene can be monolithic.

In the new era the musicians will not listen to the labels, will not collaborate, will not rewrite. That’s what the majors now use for insurance. But it sands off the rough edges of art, and it’s always the rough edges that hook us. We’re looking for originals with a viewpoint, not automatons fronting for old men.

So the founders of the new enterprises will be incorruptible, you will not be able to tell them what to do, both the acts and the companies. And the companies will be more partner than enemy, trust will reign, and transparency will rule.

It’s only a matter of getting started.

Tech has been the story in music for fifteen years.

But that story is over. Streaming won, piracy is a non-issue. Sure, data is important, but art cannot be quantified.

Now the focus is on art.

And this is the major labels’ blind spot. You expect them to sign you because you’re good, not realizing they only want moldable talent in the framework of that which has already hit which will be instantly successful.

The new and exciting is not instantly successful. Personal computers were offered for two decades before most of the public embraced them to participate online, mostly on AOL.

And then…

The software became more valuable than the hardware, internet companies were built, the unforeseeable became real.

The public has no loyalty to the corporation, only the sound. And people are always intrigued by that which is new.

But now, it takes ever longer for the new and different to get traction.

But it will.

And the majors had better watch out.

P.S. The majors could prepare themselves for this by signing that which is innovative and great but not obviously commercial and investing in it over a period of years, accounting fairly all the while, but they won’t. They’re giant corporations reporting to shareholders, they’re beholden to quarterly reports, it’s anathema to their business model…but it will be the death of them.

“Someone Else” Emitt Rhodes – YouTube
“Someone Else” Emitt Rhodes – Spotify

This should not be good.

In an era where our greatest living artists can’t even see the target, never mind hit the mark, what are the odds a has-been, a barely was, would be able to strike a bullseye?

Well, maybe not quite. But he’s close.

And it’s positively revelatory.

We boomers live in the past, because our favorites seem to have lost the plot, Sir Paul keeps putting out music, but we stopped listening long ago. Ditto on Stevie Wonder, even Paul Simon. They had too much success, eyes are upon them, they’re paralyzed, they seem to have lost the ability to channel God.

And that’s what great songwriting is. Evidence of humanity. The artist is channeling pure emotion. He or she locks into something that makes the hair on our arms stand up straight. Forget the actors, it’s the musicians we are truly in love with, because they illustrate our lives for us.

When you tell someone you care a lot
Prepare yourself for a broken heart

You think it’s different when you age, that you’re no longer a teenager, that you know what you’re doing, you’re not insecure, but then you get a crush on someone and cannot sleep, they’re all you can think about. Can you tell them? Can you even approach them?

You think you’re so strong, think you’re so brave
You’ll feel so small, be so afraid

The sound is akin to Stephen Stills’s “4 + 20,” quiet and intimate, as if no one is listening but you. Your brain opens up, you’re suddenly in touch with your thoughts and your emotions.

Because it’s life and life only.

And even though you’re wiser through experience, you still know so little. You drive a sedan, not a compact. You might even own a house. You invest in appearing together, but you’re still at loose ends, and the more you’ve got, the less you’re willing to risk.

You like her so much it makes you sick
And you just can’t make no sense of it

Go around the block enough and you can see the flaws, see the reasons for not getting involved, you can control your emotions, only you cannot. You’re infatuated.

She can’t say yes, but she can’t say no
It’s for you to guess, for her to know

Ambivalence. Can’t she please send a signal? Did you read the story saying that the most successful online daters are women who reach out for what they want?

“Women Who Make First Move in Online Dating Are Rewarded, Study Finds”

Why can’t she reach out for me?

Whoa-oh
Whoa-oh

You’re sighing.

Is there someone else she’s thinkin’ of
Will she hold him close, give him her love

You start to wonder, if she’s not interested in being with you, is she interested in being with someone else? Got to be. Because you’re madly in love, can’t she see it in your eyes?

Is there somewhere else she wants to be
With someone else, not with me

I was just discussing this with my shrink today, I don’t like to compete. If everybody else wants it, I don’t even go after it. If anybody else is interested in her I won’t make a move. I’m inured to losing. The brass ring has eluded me. I don’t feel capable, I don’t feel desirous…but none of this undercuts the twisting, turning feeling eating up my insides.

I’ve heard it all before, a thousand lies
When you’re feeling lost, you compromise

Experience. It keeps you down. We accumulate wounds and shoot for the middle at best, we no longer expect things to work out. That’s for the youngsters and the winners, the rich and famous paraded in front of us in the media.

Music is supposed to be youthful, aging is anathema in America.

Then how come this guy who never won is getting it so right, singing about the human condition of the sixtysomething, whilst his compatriots with success can only cover hits from the past, looking to stay in the spotlight.

Defeat will get you down. Emitt Rhodes had some airplay, got some accolades, but he made no money, got no ubiquity, bitter he retreated to his home in Hawthorne. And with the burgeoning of the web we all found out he was down there, accessible, but he was not the same guy, he was old, he was fat, he was no longer cute, it was all too creepy.

Kind of like Brian Wilson. An automaton paraded in front of the public so they can remember what once was. He can neither write nor play, never mind sing. So what are the odds Emitt Rhodes can?

I like her so much, it makes me ill
And it makes no sense, and it never will

I had a crush on a girl for two years. Back at the turn of the century. She’d send me e-mail, I’d respond and receive nothing in return. Was she just not interested? She was so present, so intimate when we saw each other face to face.

I realized she was an inveterate social climber, flawed in more way than one, but when I see her name in my inbox my heart still skips a beat.

I wish I may, I wish I might
I must be wrong, I can’t be right

A bridge? It’s like today’s artists lost the playbook, the bible, even though all the hits of yesteryear are online to sample. Songwriting… It didn’t used to start with the beat, but the changes. And those changes hooked us to the point we could not stop listening.

It’s all my fault, it always is
I must be crazy, shouldn’t I know better than this

You’re no longer wet behind the ears, you’ve had so much experience, you’ve been in this exact same place before…

But you can’t control your emotions.

But too much music evidences machines as opposed to humanity, imitating tech, trying to be perfect.

And in the middle the song rocks hard, but at the end it twinkles again.

WHAT WAS THAT?

I knew Emitt Rhodes had a new album, I saw a story in the “Wall Street Journal,” I made a mental note to check it out.

But I didn’t.

But then today I was stimulated, surfing a site that reminded me of him.

So I went on Spotify and saw his mug, reinforcing that this was gonna be a disaster, a failed attempt, a coda to sully my memories of being elated by “With My Face On The Floor,” spreading the word on the insight of “Love Will Stone You.”

But you’ll come down.

That’s the following line. That’s how love is, after the high comes the lows.

But the opening cut, “Dog On A Chain,” was good. It had the exact same sound from way back when, but with a modern vision. Rhodes had not had plastic surgery on either his face or his soul, he was singing from where he was today. Hell, “Dog On A Chain” was about divorce, how you feel after the kids are gone as well as the wife, when the house is no longer yours.

You ain’t no good I hear her say
Under her breath as she turns away

It’s the women who are over you first. They ate your act up in the beginning, were supportive so long, and then…

They’re no longer interested, you haven’t changed, but they have. Your act no longer works, there’s nothing you can do to get them back.

What kind of person sings this stuff?

Someone who grew up when music was all about personal expression, who remembers when you didn’t conform but went on your own journey.

And I’m sampling the tracks. And they’re all good. They hearken back to what once was, but they’re not set in amber.

And then I hear “Someone Else.”

It’s quiet and intimate, so personal, I’m positively stunned.

It’s like the labels are irrelevant, all the commercialism, all the endless tech talk.

This guy in the South Bay who paid his dues once has not eradicated his mind, is not a has-been lamenting what could have been, all these years his brain has still been working, he’s been ready for his comeback.

But unlike those putting out endless albums that require one listen at best, he truly HAS!

I’m not telling you “Rainbow Ends” is perfect. But if you remember what once was you’ll be positively stunned at this update.

Some stories stick, some don’t.

The fake Rodriguez story got traction, he toured after the movie to utter boredom.

But who cares about a failed alcoholic who hasn’t recorded for forty years?

Turns out I do.

And you will too.