I’m afraid to send this. I’m afraid of overloading my 700 new subscribers.

“From: Peter Wheeler
Subject: My God

Mauldin is sending out one of your pieces….”

Huh?

I get e-mail like this on a regular basis. Someone referring to those I do not know doing that which I do not care about which will not impact me. The internet is a vast place where you’re fighting for impact and finding out that your message is getting drowned out in the effluent. You’re trying to engineer your one big break, but the truth is the railroad is broke down and busted and nothing works. You can spam those you do not know, pay a PR person to get your story in every publication known to man, and still, nothing happens. It’s enough to make you give up, but then what path would you follow?

I had no idea who Mauldin was. But based on the above e-mail I figured he was some rock critic making fun of me. Because if you get any traction the haters come out in force, trying to get you down into the hole that they’re in.

So I set about researching. Googling. Checking my Twitter feed.

And there I found it. In Echofon, my Twitter app of choice:

@John FMauldin, John Mauldin, Dallas, Texas, MauldinEconomics.com, Financial NY Times best-selling author, pioneering online commentator. Over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his view on Wall Street, markets, and history

But he only had 25,000 Twitter followers. Which meant it was just a blip on the radar screen.

But this proved to be untrue. This gentleman has reach. Which I could base not only on the resulting signups, but the retweets. I guess the point is it’s only worth playing if people care about what you have to say, and people care about what Mr. Mauldin has to say.

And what did he say?

He wrote about my piece on attention:

Attention – John Mauldin

Now I wrote that eons ago, February 28th to be exact. I thought it was pretty good, but reaction was limited.

Then John Oates referenced it when he sent me a note re my article on his book.

And now this, on April 5th.

Huh.

Used to be I wrote something and the effect was over in two and a half hours. E-mail came in fast and furious and then it stopped. Now reaction is muted but there might be a long tail. Which is confusing and confounding. I got into the instant gratification, now it’s all about the delay. Can you wait for the response?

I’m learning to.

That’s how hard it is to cut through the detritus, to get heard.

Last week Paul O’Neill died, the creator of the Trans-Siberian Orchestra. Whose career was orchestrated by management majordomo David Krebs, whom I just had lunch with. He said when the album came out there were crickets, nothing was happening, and then nearly a year later a deejay in Florida played “Christmas Eve/Sarajevo 12/24,” and the juggernaut began. The product didn’t change, it just took a while for the word to spread, for the public to pick up on it.

Kinda like Rag’n’Bone Man’s “Human.” It’s the same track I wrote about back in December, which went to number one in two dozen countries, but it’s only now starting its climb in the United States. Sometimes the problem is not you.

Kinda like the Beatles. Ralph Simon sent me an obituary on the band’s first manager, Sam Leach. He’d promoted shows in Liverpool that garnered four digits of attendees. But when he booked a gig in London and there was a snafu and the ad didn’t run, only six people showed up. Same band, same songs. Leach got fired shortly thereafter.

So what is the lesson here?

You may not know the status of your career. But if you’re in the marketplace, you can get lucky, it can happen for you.

So now I’ve got all these new subscribers and I’m paralyzed. I feel I’ve got to give them what Mauldin wrote about, but they don’t know that I cover a cornucopia of topics, from business analysis to love and sex and my personal travails, with a healthy dose of rock history and trivia baked in in between.

But if you give people what you think they want not only do you die inside…

You’ve really got no idea what people really want.

Do they want book reviews?

I read Peter Heller’s “Celine,” over the weekend. The scenes in Vermont and Wyoming brought me right back to my youth, made me not only want to go there, but write about them.

And now I’m in the midst of Elif Batuman’s “The Idiot,” which cuts like butter until you get deep into the literature references that you won’t catch unless you’ve got a Ph.D., but the conversations, the classes, remind me of Middlebury. Are we all different tribes or are we all in this together? Will you get “The Idiot” or think I’m an idiot for recommending it?

Then there was that movie “Captain Fantastic,” I saw it on Amazon and watched it, after catching up on “Girls.” I thought Lena Dunham was overrated, thought “Tiny Furniture” was substandard, didn’t cotton to the initial seasons of the HBO series but after the buzz died down, I got hooked. I’m sad it’s ending. These are people I can understand, narcissists who are looking for friends. But “Captain Fantastic”…Viggo Mortensen’s character, imploring his children to not just recite the facts, but analyze them, was a beacon into my soul, but he was a man out of time, but if Matt Ross could write and direct this movie with these attitudes, does that mean there are a lot more people out there like me as opposed to the social media nitwits paraded in the media?

It’s a maelstrom out there, a veritable tsunami of b.s., you don’t know who you are and where you’re going, there’s no direction home, the only choice is to keep on keepin’ on, waiting to get lucky.

That’s the modern paradigm. Marketing and advertising are out the window, all the precepts are history, everything you know is wrong. But the people, who rule this nation, are eager and ready for your offerings if they resonate. The same people who decimated the music industry with Napster, the same people who built and discarded MySpace and now embrace Snapchat and Instagram, they’re hungry. And if you deliver something they love, they’ll tell everybody they know.

And those people will check out your wares and then…

Many will abandon you, a number will stick, some will become evangelists too.

What a long strange trip it’s been.

But one thing’s for sure, we’ve all got the means of production at our fingertips, there’s been no better age to be a creator, the old bottleneck of distribution is history, it’s just that you’re competing with everybody on the planet for attention, and everybody’s interested in something different.

But the world will surprise you. If you dig down deep into yourself and worry not at all about the consumer.

But you’re dependent upon the consumer for emotional and financial sustenance.

So there’s the conundrum.

And when no one’s listening you feel free.

And when everybody’s listening you’re inhibited.

And the longer you live you realize how insignificant you and your musings are.

But we’re here now, we rule now, we’re trying to figure it out now.

I’m lost and found at the same time.

Thanks.

It won’t be long before another day
We gonna have a good time
And no one’s gonna take that time away
You can stay as long as you like

“You Can Close Your Eyes”
James Taylor

You should have been there. Not because I want your money, not because I want to build FOMO, but because it was so educational and so much fun!

Those playing the home game will remember my buddy Jim Lewi implored me to do the conference, after I was interviewed at Aspen Live, detailing the ups and downs of my life, being brought up the son of a liquor store owner, enduring Middlebury College and coming to Los Angeles to seek fame and fortune in the music business.

What surprised me was those who attended who were not members of the club, who I did not know previously, who read the newsletter and decided to attend. Illustrating that people will lay down four figures if they’re interested, if they care. People do what they want.

But what blew me away was the speakers.

First up was Neil Jacobson, newly appointed head of Geffen Records, who not only told the tale of A&R’ing the three most Shazamed tracks in history, but how he made it from Berklee college dropout to majordomo, with a step selling carpet in between. You see the leaders, the envelope pushers, are not only students of the game, they theorize and execute. Neil is all about multiple exposures, in an attention economy it’s nearly impossible to make anyone aware of your track, even if it’s good. Neil cuts through the detritus. His goal is to work hard for his artists, they wouldn’t think of leaving him.

Next up was Roger McNamee, who you might know as the founder of Elevation Partners, with Bono. Roger’s only regret was that when Bono first called he didn’t say BONO WHO?

That’s Roger, a capricious soul with a sense of humor who might rub some the wrong way with his zealotry but overflows in his loyalty and dedication, if you’re on Roger’s team he’ll go the last mile. In the bar he told us after being sued by the Doobie Brothers he helped them with their digital presence, he keeps helping them with their digital presence, like I said, when you’re on Roger’s team, you’re on it for life.

Roger said the computer business was run by those born from ’55-57, like him, born in ’56. After business school at Tuck, he took a gig at T. Rowe Price. Covered Silicon Valley. Met all the players in Vegas before they were players. Jumped to Kleiner Perkins and then started Silver Lake Partners, where he got squeezed out after overperforming.

He and Bono wanted to take over the music business and revolutionize it, but they ended up investing in Facebook and blowing up Palm, making a handset that was a year late to market, and then laying the whole thing off on HP. Blowing up as in pouring gasoline on the fire, but Roger admitted mistakes, like a keyboard that was unnecessary and a curved shape that proved irrelevant, but it’s all about dusting yourself off from your failures and marching forward again. Roger said it’s a cycle of product and then adaptation. Right now the product is the mobile handset, and the adaptation is all the apps. But he believes a new product is in the offing.

And then came Jonathan Prince of Spotify, the day of the announcement of the UMG deal. He punted his flight and we did it via Facetime, which was a mistake, because personal contact is everything, you can see people’s faces, you can read the nuances.

The next morning we started off with Eddie Rosenblatt, who helmed Geffen Records through its entire initial incarnation. Hearing his history…we forget the progenitors oftentimes fell into the business, Eddie followed an army buddy to a distributorship in Ohio. And he eventually made it to A&M where he ultimately got canned, every success has a bump in the road, and then on to WB and Geffen. And what stunned me was how I knew all the players, all the history. It might be worthless, but it’s in my DNA. Eddie wondered what label Peter Gabriel was on before Geffen… MERCURY! Stuff like that, I, we, know all the labels and the credits. And the stories of John Lennon, Kurt Cobain and Axl Rose… Whew! December 8th, finding out in a hotel room, going to the Dakota to spend the night with Yoko. Meeting Kurt Cobain, who wouldn’t look him in the eye. It’s Eddie’s history, it’s our history.

Then came movie producer Chris Moore. I didn’t know that the idea for “Manchester By The Sea” was generated by the production team, for Matt Damon, Kenneth Lonergan was hired to write the script, and it took him half a decade. And one woman from St. Louis funded the whole damn thing. And how does a boy from Maryland make it in Hollywood? Well, if you met Chris you’d know how and why, in minutes he’s everybody’s best friend, he radiates charisma, you’re drawn to him, even though he’s not afraid to express opinions, rough edges. We discussed film distribution, how the music business was leading in this area, and I could have talked to him for hours more. It was, like Jim said, two days of TED talks.

And our final speaker was Marcie Allen. Who dropped out of college right before her senior year to work in concert marketing and ultimately started a promotion business in her living room. She too is a force of nature, she’d be successful no matter what her chosen path. She’s unafraid to cold call, to do what everybody else says is impossible. And she detailed how she now hooks up performers with brands, to pay for special events, like the launch of the Imagine Dragons album, if you’ve got something special you want to do, she can find the money. As long as it’s a win-win. Kinda like flying to the UK to meet with Joyce to interview to be the Stones’ sponsorship point person. She came with a firm offer from Citi, which was going to expire quickly, so it couldn’t be cross-bid. The Stones said yes, and Citi said yes later, when Mick wanted more cash for an app.

So it was like going to the college I did not attend, where I was interested in the classes and I was on the edge of my seat wanting more.

But just like college, some of the best action occurred outside of the classroom. The hang, getting to know people.

And the highlight was two nights in the hotel bar, singing songs.

Who knew everybody could sing “Black Water,” every lick?

And what were the Beatles thinking when they wrote “Back In The U.S.S.R.”?

And Roger led us in “Like A Rolling Stone” and “City Of New Orleans” and I was reminded…

That the music unites us, it got us here.

We use our mobile devices, we fire up our Netflix, but what we’ve got in common is those tunes. They got inside us and motivated us to follow our path.

We all went to the same school, learned our lessons on the radio, studied at home with our discs, and even though the world is changing we can’t let go, we’re still listening.

And when we’re all together there’s a commonality, we’re brothers and sisters in arms.

And unlike in the James Taylor song, we had to go home, we couldn’t stay.

But I’ve been reeling ever since.

Which is what happens when you’re stimulated, when you have a peak experience.

Like I said, you should have been there.

Music Media Summit

It’s not gonna work.

The music business is a race to the bottom. A scummy cesspool wherein rules are made to be broken and fealty is paid to money but the true currency is fans and attention. He or she who restricts access pays the price. And those who don’t scoop up the proceeds.

We’ve seen this movie before. With independent promotion. Documented quite well in the all time tome “Hit Men.” As soon as one major stopped paying, the others doubled down. Who’s gonna give up all that revenue?

Come on, the stories the past few months have been about records being broken. Ed Sheeran and Drake releasing new music and getting stratospheric streams. Suddenly, they’re gonna take themselves out of the game? Forget Taylor Swift, that’s a sideshow. From a previous era, a transition from files and physical to on demand streams. Everything moves, everything changes, but the truth remains you’ve got to strike when the iron is hot. When the buzz is in the air. When people care.

Come on, the movie studios are trying to decrease the window between theatre and on demand and the record companies are trying to increase it?

This is a giveback to Universal for a signed agreement, for lower stream rates, that’s all. There’s no news here. Hell, we haven’t completely eradicated piracy, the RIAA keeps going on about the YouTube value gap and suddenly labels want to make streaming more restrictive? Good goal, increasing revenue, bad timing.

Especially with the increase in revenue. Come on, does Apple RAISE prices when the going is good? No one in Silicon Valley does that. As for Netflix, they always grandfather in the old subscribers, as does Amazon, you can keep your original rate.

But the incentive here is to subscribe to hear the hits.

The same incentive to sign up for Tidal?

That was a complete bust.

Turns out people don’t care that much, and they don’t like to be threatened, they like to believe they’re in control and make their own choices. The history of the internet is one of products breaking through virality, and looky-loos coming last at cheap prices.

All that hogwash we had to endure, about Spotify being the devil. Then why in the hell did revenue go up double digits?

As for the Apple streaming numbers… I don’t believe them. They keep bandying about Drake streams but there’s no way to verify them. The numbers are easily accessible by all on Spotify’s desktop version but we’re just supposed to trust Jimmy Iovine? The man who was brought up in the house of music business smoke and mirrors?

Sure, it’s another tool in the shed for Universal. But the problem today isn’t making money, but being forgotten. You can put out music and it can be over in a day. Truly. That’s what skip rates tell streaming providers, you can’t force anything down anybody’s throat.

But now in the name of the almighty dollar the labels are gonna re-educate the public just like that?

Not gonna happen.

P.S. Will the free tier eventually expire? Of course. Just like music on YouTube, which is already dying, because it’s a bad experience, oftentimes streams on Spotify exceed those on the visual service. But you don’t close the door too soon. And most of the money is in ancillaries anyway. The road and sponsorship. Sure, it’s great if recorded music revenues rise, but they’re just the starting point. And if your track stiffs, good luck trying to put asses in the seats, get that Fortune 500 company to lay down bucks.

P.P.S. For all the blowhard bloviating the music business is based on fear, that you’ll be forgotten, ignored, that you won’t have hits. Subterfuge, outright lying and falsehood are employed to goose records. Do you think this is gonna stop, do you think someone’s gonna cough up their competitive advantage?

P.P.P.S. Who goes first? This is no different from Tom Petty and the acts of yore being the guinea pigs for higher album prices. Who wants their career to suffer so all boats can rise? Good luck finding that mark.

P.P.P.P.S. It’s for albums only, singles are excluded! The album is an archaic format whose time has passed. You hop from single to single, released on a regular basis, the young acts understand this, the old farts are in denial.

“Spotify Premium users will get some albums two weeks before free users, As part of its new licensing agreement with Universal Music Group”

CREDIBILITY

Say what you mean and do not lie. Stand for something. Be trustworthy. It is the antidote to the duplicity pervading our society. Have only one face, not two. Do what’s right in your heart, not what right’s for your pocketbook. Be a paragon of honesty that others can point to and believe in. Dollars are powerful but the world is run by people and if you get your own house in order, stop complaining and start taking action, you’ll be stunned at the results that can be achieved.

TRUTH TO POWER

Leaders look for acknowledgement after the fact. They take a risk, they jump off the cliff based on what’s in their heart. They do not do focus groups, do not believe in research, but abide by their inner tuning fork. Everybody knows the truth, they’re just afraid to speak it out loud. But when someone does, others rally around them.

IGNORE THE NAYSAYERS

If everybody’s your friend you’ve got a problem, that just means you’ve tempered your approach to appeal to all, to not ruffle feathers. It’s the hooks in Velcro that make it work. You need rough edges, it’s your sharp points that will bond others to you. People have agendas, they want to drag you down into the hole they’re in, they want you to be a pawn in their game, and if you’re not wary, paying attention, skeptical, you’ll be dragged down with them.

TAKE A STAND

Fallon is out of time. Colbert stood up and his ratings soared. Today the L.A. “Times” excoriated Trump in a way heretofore unseen:

Our Dishonest President

Playing it safe evaporated with the last century, when the internet came along and disrupted the world. Everything’s up for grabs, we all have the means of communication at our fingertips, we’re all seeking guidance and solidarity and we don’t know where to look in a world where artists have abdicated and the monied are furthering their own agenda. You think you’re losing audience when you pick a side but the truth is you’re bonding people to you, and not everyone can be your fan, no way.

EDUCATE YOURSELF

Statistics can be twisted. Fake news abounds. But the truth is out there. You’re a citizen on the planet, it’s your duty to search out the truth, with open eyes, realizing you may find facts that are contrary to your beliefs. Fake news is for the uneducated unwilling to go deeper, you’re better than that. And I hate that expression, it’s utilized to make you feel inferior, appeal to a theoretical moral high ground, so whenever anybody says that to you, call them on their b.s. Too many self-righteous pricks lording their superiority over the rest of us for no good reason.

MAKE MONEY BUT DON’T BE A SLAVE PRAYING TO IT

There’s no harm in making a living, if you’re decrying someone’s lifestyle and assets on principle, the joke is upon you. The underclass is hurting and needs to be helped. But to feel better than others because you are broke is a sad state of affairs in which you ultimately lose. We want to lift all boats. Some abuse the system. Income inequality is the scourge of our system. But when you say you’re better because you’ve got less you just take yourself out of the game and force others into hiding. The best disinfectant for subterfuge is sunlight.

COMPLETE TASKS

Follow-through is everything in life. Finishing is its own reward. Life is about building blocks, one upon another, to create opportunity. You finish not so you can do the next foreseeable thing so much as being able to see the landscape from higher ground and encountering new possibilities.

RESPECT EXPERIENCE AND WISDOM

And feel free to disregard it after you’ve digested it, but those who’ve been there and done that are the best flashlights into the future, they know what questions to ask, they know where trouble lurks. If you always have to reinvent the wheel you’re never going to get to the destination.

BE AN INDIVIDUAL

It’s harder than it looks. Much more difficult that uploading a video to YouTube or a file to Spotify. Groupthink is ruining our country. Everybody wants to be a member of the club but no one questions whether the club has any worth. Beautiful people are a dime a dozen. As are college graduates. But someone who can parse the truth and articulate a path, rally those in support, is rare.