The only question left is the remedy.

Of course the jury is going to hold for the states against Live Nation. Because of the TRIFECTA!

Yup, the testimony re Barclays and the arena in Minneapolis. The Slack conversation between Live Nation employees gleefully deriding the consumer, talking about how people are so dumb they can be easily ripped-off. And today’s testimony by Michael Rapino that they didn’t allow chairs on the lawn because it affected the view and experience of other patrons and then bragging to investors about the millions made renting chairs at these same amphitheatres.

Doesn’t matter that Rapino said the number was different. It’s a bad look. If you hear all this are you really going to find for Live Nation? OF COURSE NOT!

Then again, juries are legendarily unpredictable. You truly never know what the verdict will be. But one thing is for sure, despite trials being about facts, juries run on emotion, and how can you side with Live Nation in this case? If this were a murder trial, it would be a slam dunk, Live Nation was found to have its hand in the cookie jar, making sure that cookies were expensive and no one else could provide access to the jar.

So…

The federal government and Live Nation mistreated the judge. Coming to a settlement agreement and not only not informing the magistrate but letting the trial CONTINUE! Talk about heinous. But Subramanian is fair, he agreed with Live Nation’s counsel that Rapino’s compensation should not be introduced at trial, that it was not material.

So we don’t have a rogue judge here.

But we do have a rogue government and a corporation playing into its hands.

Trump pardons people willy-nilly. One thing is for sure, you have to kiss the ring, treat him nicely. So Live Nation puts Trump crony Richard Grenell on its board, you know, the guy who ran the Kennedy Center up until just now. Grenell has never crossed Trump. Furthermore, Live Nation hired Ms. Alternative Facts, Kellyanne Conway, to lobby on its behalf. Talk about a Trump loyalist… This is all a bad look, then again, so much of what Trump has done has been a bad look. But Ticketmaster is the most hated company in America. And even MAGA people go to concerts. So will Live Nation be hurt in the long run if for some insane reason the jury sides with the company?

That’s what we want to know, we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop regarding Trump. One judge just kicked RFK, Jr.’s non-scientific vaccine policy to the curb and another brought back the VOA. Not that I’m holding my breath that the legal system will rein Trump in, but no one skates free forever. Unless they’re a dictator, maybe.

So the head person at the government’s antitrust division is excised and then a deal is made. Now let’s be clear, that’s been Live Nation’s goal all along, to make a deal, to settle. But the Biden administration wouldn’t and until very recently, neither would the Trump. Why? Because the government thought its case was just that damn good.

But having been kept out of the loop, f*cked in the ass, many of the states decided to continue the fight. A week went by, two jurors retired, but the states got it together with a new lawyer to continue the trial. Will the jurors forget the earlier testimony? I doubt it, it’s black and white.

And this new lawyer, Kessler, is more savvy than the ones he replaced. First and foremost, he knows it’s about winning the case, in court, not playing to the public. This is what was done wrong in the O.J. case… The government was so busy proving its case, ad infinitum, that everybody got bored and checked out. No, Kessler believes there’s enough evidence to deliver victory, so he’s closing it all down next week. Smart, because the  more witnesses you call, not only do you risk boring the jury, you open yourself up to contradictory opinions. Now that the jury is convinced Live Nation is guilty, don’t grandstand, don’t play to the public, be strategic, close it down while you’re winning.

So after the jury holds against Live Nation, Subramanian has to come up with a remedy. And what will that be…

Well, could be some mumbo-jumbo akin to the federal settlement, but stiffer, then again, does Live Nation have clean hands here? It broke previous consent decrees, the only way to seemingly keep the company in line is to have a trial, which is what we’re now getting. So is Subramanian going to risk this behavior and these shenanigans once again? If that happens, it reflects badly upon him.

Can there be a remedy that has no nuance, shy of a breakup, that is cut and dried, that will satisfy the states? That’s possible. But right now, it’s looking like dismemberment, detaching Ticketmaster from Live Nation.

Now all the “experts,” the inside baseball people, think this won’t happen. Because the way it normally works is… You hire attorneys who charge thousands per hour, who are not only know the government attorneys, but are much better than them. And they argue your case on the facts and you get most of what you want. The government is reluctant to have a trial, it’s expensive and unless it’s a slam dunk, they don’t want to start.

That’s how this merger was approved in the first place. Experts in law threading the needle and saying it was okay and convincing the government of such. And everything was groovy until…

Fees went up, other promoters couldn’t compete… People have bitched about concert ticket prices from time immemorial. But never has it been a topic of mainstream conversation. It was always a sideshow.

Once again, will concert ticket prices, costs of going to the show, go down dramatically as a result of a breakup of Live Nation and Ticketmaster? Absolutely not. But it will allow other players to compete on a more level playing field. And will the benefit ultimately trickle down to the public? That’s the theory.

All problems will not be solved. This trial is the music business’s worst nightmare, it doesn’t want its dirty laundry aired in public, because believe me, it’s dirty. You sign a deal for a national tour, with any promoter, and after you get your fee…don’t ask how they make a profit. Some promoters have been known to scalp their own tickets to make their money.

And I’m not going to delineate every bad action behind the scenes. But the truth is it’s a constant fight between acts and promoters. And especially today, with acts getting so much of the face price of the ticket…the promoter has to make it up somewhere.

So, once again, a separation of Live Nation and Ticketmaster will not solve all problems, nowhere close. But one thing it would be is a perceived victory by the public. In a world where citizens are screwed daily and told everything is fantastic. Does Donald Trump even go to a grocery store? And not only him… The Democrats didn’t realize there was an affordability problem until the results of the last election.

Tell me to leave Trump out of it, but I can’t. This is just one Trumpian endeavor the public can comprehend, that it has a vested interested in, that is palpable, that they believe directly affects them. War in Iran? That’s hard to wrap your head around, especially because it’s transpiring thousands of miles away. Not being able to get tickets not only for yourself, but for your kids’ favorite act, that’s emotional, that might sit with you forever… If you go you might have the experience of a lifetime, and if you don’t, you might feel left out.

So… It will be in Subramanian’s hands. And when the remedy is delivered…

You can’t appeal every decision. You must make the case there were errors. Now big corporations try this. Or they settle. But settlement didn’t seem to work here. So, there will be appeals, that could last years.

Or, Subramanian could not employ the nuclear option, and not only will the states have to pay the price, but the people too. This will leave a sour taste in their mouth. People like options, and they feel like they’ve got none, that Live Nation is lording it over them, laughing whilst making millions. Even if the company survives, it will be forever tarnished. Unlike record companies, if it does survive it won’t be superseded, the lift is too heavy, the risk is too gargantuan. And it’s Live Nation’s ownership of buildings, ownership of Ticketmaster and sponsorship, that allows them to pay acts more.

It always comes down to the acts. But the public considers the acts to be inviolate. Ticketmaster has taken the heat for the acts since its inception. But the public neither understands nor accepts that. So Live Nation has to pay. Not the acts that make your favorite tunes, the little guy against the machine.

The dirty little secret is so many of today’s acts ARE the machine!

And that hurts business.

But honesty, trustworthiness and credibility are out the window in today’s America, just look at our lying chief executive. So who pays the price? The public…and they’re mad as hell and ain’t gonna take it anymore! Even if Live Nation wins, this fight will not be over. The public will never lay down their arms and accept it. Is the judge on their side? I’d bet he is.