1. Michael Rapino

Is the fact that he’s too young to have experienced the golden age a plus or a minus? Does the fact that he didn’t stay up all night listening to underground FM radio and going to Grateful Dead concerts mean he just doesn’t possess the soul, the DNA, or does it mean he’s not burdened by history and he can innovate in ways the oldsters can’t?

Rapino sits atop the big kahuna, Live Nation. That’s where the money is these days, touring. And he’s got the biggest operation. Rapino is where you get paid.

Can Rapino break acts?

Can Rapino eliminate the heinous convenience/ticketing fees that hurt our business?

He’s the one with the power, let’s see how he executes.

As for the stock price and Artist Nation…

Unfortunately, Rapino and Cohl are looking to cash out. We wish they were long term players, but that doesn’t decrease their power. And Cohl always seems to resurface anyway. But if you’re looking for Live Nation to be the new record company, I wouldn’t count on it. Because big acts don’t need record companies and presently selling music isn’t a growth business.

2. Steve Jobs

I don’t really think he gives a shit about music. He seems to care more about movies. Hell, he helped invent a new medium, computer animated features, with Pixar. We don’t see him starting a new kind of record company.

But the iTunes Music Store is where the rubber meets the road. It’s where the transaction happens. And that’s why he’s got power.

Furthermore, Jobs controls the player. The iPod dominates.

If Jobs suddenly said subscription rental was the future, and available at the iTunes Store, where you sync your iPod, that formula would burgeon, but it still wouldn’t dominate. Yet, he has the power.

3. Irving Azoff

When Irving was building the present Frontline empire he told me his goal was to build a monolith so powerful that when the major labels wouldn’t do something because it was "against their policy", he could counter that a certain procedure/deal point was against HIS/FRONTLINE’S policy.

But who could foresee the slip in label power in this century. Now Irving manipulates the label, when he wants to use one at all. He sold the "Warner" piece of Frontline to Barry Diller and then up and sold Warner ANOTHER piece.

With Irving it’s not a matter of trust, he’s just smarter than just about everybody else. And accessible. And charming. And the other managers hate him for it.

Irving’s got the power in an era where the manager dominates. Hell, Irving’s partner Howard Kaufman has got Rapino tied in a knot. Rapino NEEDS Howard’s acts, to fill his buildings.

You want to know the future of this business? Watch Irving.

And his artists trust him…

4. Randy Phillips

Touring can’t be stressed enough. AEG is perched at the absolute top of the pyramid. They’re about touring guaranteed moneymakers. They’re not full-service like Live Nation, but they’re very profitable, and a power that can outbid LN.

Great work with the O2, turning a white elephant into a first class venue. And now Coachella’s going to operate on the east coast too!

5. Rob Light/Marc Geiger/Chip Hooper

They couldn’t be more different, but they’re all extremely powerful.

You might not see Chip’s name in the paper, but he controls the jam band world, starting with the Dave Matthews Band. And these acts might not be sexy, but they have unending grosses, they can tour forever and people want to see them.

Rob Light has built CAA into a monolith, even though many felt that when the prior generation left, i.e. Tom Ross, CAA would falter.

Marc Geiger’s probably the most innovative thinker in the agency business, one of the most insightful in all the music business. He lost everybody’s money with ArtistDirect, but he didn’t lose his smarts. And somehow he’s been able to rebuild Lollapalooza as a weekend, destination festival.

Don’t curry favor with your A&R guy. Hell, your record label PRESIDENT is less important than your agent. Your agent will get you paid. And your label head might not even be able to break you. Acts are broken on the road. And those acts that aren’t, that are build on Top Forty airplay and television, don’t last and can’t do much business playing live, and therefore make less money and are less important.

6. Guy Hands

If he runs the smallest label and his star acts are pissed at him, how come he’s so powerful?

Because he’s the one angling for change. He’s got no history in this business, no allegiance to anything, he’s starting with a fresh slate. He’s the one who’s going to try shit that makes a difference.

Some of his ideas are stupid. Like branding a corporation with a song/act. It shows he has no idea of the true power of music, of people’s relationship to it. Yet, despite his stumbles, he doesn’t want to fail, he wants to come up with good ideas. He’s less worried about Best Buy and all the old powers the business has been beholden to. He’s looking to the future, not the past. Watch him.

7. Ian Rogers

MySpace and Facebook get all the ink, but Yahoo Music is the number one music site on the Web. And the Web is where you break records.

8. Music Blogs

We’ll even put Pitchfork here too. This business was built by, and is sustained by, rabid fans. Rabid fans scour the Web for information on their favorite acts and new acts. Too many sites are started with the profit motive first, and that’s why they’re untrustworthy. Hell, that’s why MySpace has got such a bad name. And Mark Zuckerberg is doing a good job fucking up Facebook too.

Music bloggers do it for the love of music. They can be trusted. Profit is secondary. Are blogs the new radio? If not quite, they show a pathway to the future, where it’s about being turned on by love, not hype.

9. Pandora/LastFM/Net Radio

I don’t listen to any of them on a regular basis. I’m a firm believer in satellite radio. I like pros picking my music. But it seems that most of the public is not with me, they don’t want to pay. If XM and Sirius merge, and they probably will, since the Whole Foods/Wild Oats deal went through, there’s a chance satellite will become the new cable. Ultimately dominant over time. But right now, it doesn’t look that way.

Traditional, terrestrial radio is toast. When it comes to music. It’s not where the active music consumer goes. Because of the calcified playlists and the endless commercials. Sure, you can break an act on terrestrial radio, but that’s the old model, that’s payoffs and hype. It’s not about the audience, but the powers-that-be. Those radio records have less impact than ever and the acts have briefer careers. Sure, it can be quick money, but it’s not the future.

The future is niche, narrowcasting. And you get this on Net radio. The majors are fighting it because they don’t like its openness, the lack of control. But it’s what the people want.

Ubiquitous Net radio is not in the immediate future. We don’t have either WiMax or Net-capable cars. But both are what the public want. And eventually the technology will catch up with what the people desire.

10. Doug Morris

If only he exercised his power for GOOD! Instead of being a bad traffic cop wanting to write tickets for everybody going five miles an hour over the speed limit.

Doug thinks it’s about breaking records on radio, seeing if they react at retail. He’s old school, he hates the future. He and his compatriot Zach Horowitz are single-handedly holding back the future of compensation for recorded music. They just want a check. They don’t understand Google, that you have to know where in the food chain to charge, that the most important thing is hooking the public on your wares, then figuring out a way to monetize.

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NOT ON THIS LIST

Clive Davis

Old school player massages records which ultimately sell the old way. Clive’s got no business innovation, and all those acts he’s building are selling ever less. If only he broke a plethora of acts, of all stripes. If only he didn’t meddle in the creative process. If only he was about the future as opposed to the Clive business, then he’d truly be powerful.

Rick Rubin

A story on the cover of the "New York Times Magazine" does not make you powerful.

Has done nothing, and probably never will. A bad mistake on the part of Rob Stringer, who has to worry about Clive and the Germans breathing down the neck of his unsuccessful business.

TicketMaster

Live Nation pulls its ticketing and then you buy a reseller?

Whose side are you on?

Your own.

TicketMaster is only about the money, it gives nothing back while continually trumpeting how great its service is.

There’s no innovation at TM, just endless service charges.

Wal-Mart

Soon they’ll only be selling a handful of CDs, and then none at all. And they failed with their online store. Stop being so afraid of them.

Jeff Kwatinetz

A sad, sad story. If only he were less combative and less about announcing deals and more about putting points on the board.

Kevin Lyman

There were only ten places. If there were twenty, Kevin would have made it. The Warped Tour is a juggernaut that never seems to fade. It’s a rite of passage for teenage boys.

Rolling Stone

Is it a celebrity magazine or a music magazine?

All print is dying. And "Rolling Stone"’s Website sucks.

Jann Wenner may swing his dick at the Rock & Roll Hall Of Fame, but now that Madonna’s being inducted, that institution has lost all credibility. Shit, we need a NEW HALL!

Terry McBride

One of the most innovative thinkers in the business, but then why did Nettwerk need a cash infusion from MAMA?

Terry says that Barenaked Ladies made more money than if they were on a major label, but their tour grosses are bad and their profile is horrific.

Keep watching Terry. But I’m not sure he’ll lead you to the future. Or, maybe he’s just going to lead you there too soon.

Rob Glaser/Rhapsody

The MTV tie-in worked for Rock Band, but not Rhapsody.

The public doesn’t understand it, doesn’t think it needs it, and the interface and hand-held players suck.

There’s something here, but the public doesn’t know what it is, do they, Mr. Jones.

Microsoft

Zune… Have you been to the social?

Music, when done right, is cool. Microsoft HAS NEVER been cool.

SXSW

A circle jerk. You don’t break bands there, you just show the usual suspects what your priorities are. Stay home.

Nickelback

I’d almost want to put them on this list. Because they’ve illustrated that what people want most is meat and potatoes rock and roll. But that’s just not sexy enough for major labels. They need what’s hip, executives need to impress their friends. Daughtry is Nickelback one step removed. How come there aren’t a ton more Nickelback and Daughtrys? Maybe with better material, but playing down home rock and roll?

SoundScan

Many no longer trust it. Its accuracy is in question. How well does it track indie stores, how about gig sales…sales from Websites?

A barometer that’s losing power every day. Shit, one can just go to the iTunes Store and see what’s hot.

Billboard

They need to bring Timothy White back from the dead, it’s the only thing that can save them. Certainly their endless conferences won’t do the trick.

Jay-Z

He’s no longer at DefJam, his album didn’t sell well and Steve Jobs won the staredown.

With Jay-Z hobbled and Russell Simmons turning into a joke, as he preaches new age bullshit, who will raise and fly the flag of rap?

Maybe Dr. Dre. He’s still got the cred, and he was never flashy. But we need someone new…

Amazon

It’s just not sexy. It’s purely utilitarian. It’s the big box compared to Apple’s "indie" iTunes Store. Log on to iTunes and you feel a coolness. There’s no coolness at Amazon, it will never dominate the sphere.

As for building a competitor to iTunes… If sale by track was the future, the business wouldn’t be in such shit shape. But digital sales don’t make up for the CD shortfall. There has to be a new way to monetize digital, a bucket of tracks for a certain price, P2P trading licenses… Maybe Guy Hands can show some innovation in this area.

MTV

Sure, music video moved to the Web, but once MTV was the heartbeat of music, the powerhouse that broke acts. Now it’s endless reality TV, with shit ratings, competing against every other outlet on cable/satellite. They lost their soul. And soul is the most important element. You can branch out, go for the easy money, but at some point you’re not going to stand for anything anymore, you’re going to lose your specialness and find that your hard core audience, that you felt was inviolate, that you could depend on, is gone.