You never succeed playing catch-up ball.

In the late nineties AOL looked unstoppable, adding millions of subscribers at twenty bucks per month.  Never mind that techies railed against the service, its incompatible e-mail system, its closed network.  The public was stupid.  And you could never lose money serving that stupidity.

So demonstrating even a greater lack of knowledge, Jerry Levin decided to merge Time Warner with AOL.  To create a juggernaut.

Jerry Levin rides the bus these days.  Where none of his ex-TW employees can find him and rail about the declines in stock value that will have them working until they’re seventy.

But Jerry Levin knew nothing about tech.  What about MICROSOFT!

Well, anything you can do I can do better.  Well, not exactly better, but I can employ my  marketing muscle, my business relationships, my MONOPOLY, to edge into your business and defeat you.

So Microsoft went into competition with AOL.  With its Microsoft Network, otherwise known as msn.com.

It was UNFAIR!  Microsoft’s link was on the desktop.  They were going to win AGAIN!

Only one problem.  AOL was not where it was at.  The action turned out not to be in monthly subscriptions, but search.  In other words, while Microsoft pursued AOL it completely ignored Google.

Same deal with the Zune.

We can categorize the Zune’s faults.  Its size.  Its non-spinning click wheel.  Its incompatibility with other music services.  Its incompatibility with Microsoft’s soon to ship operating system Vista

Zune incompatible with Windows Vista

But what’s really gonna kill the Zune is the phone.  Apple’s iPhone, or whomever comes up with the perfect solution.

You might not want music with your phone TODAY, but that’s because your handset has indecipherable menus.  Usability is at the bottom of its feature sets.  It’s just too complicated.  Like that Palm Pilot you have stored in your drawer.  But what if you could talk and listen to music EASILY!  Could I convince you to carry only one device instead of two?  Are you INTERESTED IN THAT?

I believe you are.  And that’s why Apple just contracted with Hon Hai Precision to manufacture 12 million handsets

Taiwan’s Hon Hai wins Apple orders for mobile handsets, notebook PCs – report

You can buy your chip anywhere.  Just plug it into your phone, and you go.

Microsoft’s solution?  A wireless networking feature that has the transferred tracks expiring in three days or three plays.

Is this really the feature you’re looking for?  To be able to get crap songs from someone you’ve just met?  Hell, if they’re your friend, you’re gonna get the REAL THING, not a facsimile that expires.

Sure, social networking is important.  But is Microsoft’s solution a viable answer?

Of course not.  Because it leaves out usability.  Usability isn’t only how you get the music in, but how you LISTEN TO IT!  And to have to listen within arbitrary parameters is…  Well, let me see.  These tracks are going to expire on Tuesday.  Those on Wednesday.  Oops, I took a phone call and let that track continue to play, so it’s gone now.

Oh, don’t tell me about the DRM restrictions on the iPod, because THEY DON’T APPLY TO MOST PEOPLE!  Most people just rip and steal, they can’t be bothered with the man’s plan.

Zune’s game is the same as the MSN Network’s.  To use distribution to dominate.  Zune is available in THREE TIMES AS MANY retail outlets as iPod.  Will some people buy them because of availability?  ABSOLUTELY!  And Microsoft can trumpet their inroads.  On a drive towards Cairo when all the action is in Damascus.