Fear Of The Future

Gnarls Barkley sold nearly 60,000 CDs last week.

It’s not because people love the act, think it’s here to stay, believe that Gnarls Barkley is the next Beatles, but because they love the SINGLE!

"Crazy" is one of the best tracks of the year.  But there’s nothing else on "St. Elsewhere" close in quality or hookiness.  So if we lived in a total digital tracks world, how much money do you think Atlantic would be taking in?  BUPKES!

For the first time ever, the record industry is not forcing a new format down customers’ throats.  They’re not making the CD obsolete, people are WALLOWING IN IT!  Maybe because they don’t know much better.

To make it clearer…  How many people who bought "Crazy" at the iTunes Music Store still buy CDs?  I’d say almost none of them.  Sure, sometimes a file is an impulse buy.  Sometimes people will buy the CD if they want EVERY track.  But the point is, at some point in the not too distant future, people will only want files, and THEN what happens to album sales?

Oh, don’t throw the fact that "St. Elsewhere" is number two on the ALBUM chart at the iTMS at me.  Because ultimately the iTunes Music Store only represents a SMALL FRACTION of the files acquired.  People buying there are early in their digital music acquisition phase, caught up in the euphoria of their new iPod.  Read the reports, as time goes on, people buy FEWER tracks from the iTunes Music Store. 

US Digital Track Trends Weakening

In other words, people are buying albums because it’s a hangover, they still BELIEVE in them.  But will they continue to do so?

And what made "Crazy" such a hit anyway?

Endless airplay (it’s number 3 on the Billboard Hot 100) and TV promotion created awareness.  It’s positively OLD SCHOOL!  Top down marketing.  And it works, if you want to sell tonnage.

And THAT’S why the major labels are up in arms.  They don’t want to see the old system go.  One wherein they control the means of promotion and distribution and only a few acts are featured.  Where the buy-in price is in excess of ten dollars.

But that paradigm is crumbling.  Now terrestrial radio is not the only way to be exposed to music.  And many people are not even paying attention to the old forms of exhibition.

In other words, the major labels are on their way to becoming marginalized.  They’re all about collecting the mainstream and distributing it at a high price.  Where now the mainstream means less than ever and prices are going down, since people only want a single track.

Oh, people will want more tracks if they BELIEVE in an artist.  But most people don’t believe in today’s artists.  Those old credibility and artist development saws have conspired to create this environment.  Today’s mainstream acts are phony, made for the lowest common denominator/casual buyer.

In other words, if you’re going to the record store to buy complete CDs you’re positively old school.  The landscape is one of evanescent hits and Grateful Dead trading.  Either people want ONE THING or EVERYTHING!

The everything business will be the gold mine in the future.

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    […] #8217;s over-educated, underpaid young professionals live in “dorm for adults” Gnarls Barkley and digital music analysis Brian En […]

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