Konica Minolta
The end is coming.
Somehow, with the crash of the dot com era, the major labels thought they were safe. The sky didn’t fall with Napster, and therefore they felt it never would.
How many years have we heard about digital cameras replacing film ones? Must be at least fifteen. Turns out Konica Minolta wasn’t prepared. Sure, they put out the Dimage digital cameras, but their business also encompassed film, and development laboratories, and suddenly those and the cameras used to shoot film had almost no demand. They cut the plug.
Oh, it’s not an anomaly. Last week NIKON said it was ceasing the production of film cameras.
I ask you, WHAT is the music industry doing to prepare for the INEVITABLE death of the CD. And, in addition, WHAT is it doing to prepare for new paradigms of acquisition and usage?
Last night I spoke at a class at Loyola Marymount University. I asked TWO people in the front row how many tracks they had in their iTunes libraries. One girl said 5,000 another said 4,000. Considering there to be ten tracks on a CD, that’s the equivalent of 500 and 400 discs. I ask you. When YOU went to college did ANYBODY have that many CDs/vinyl records? NO FUCKING WAY! Because they COULDN’T AFFORD THEM! In my day, if you had a collection of 20 albums, you had a reasonably-sized collection. Can you imagine someone with TWO HUNDRED TRACKS in their iTunes library saying they’re a big music fan?
But the record labels will point to subscription. Rental.
But Napster only has 500,000 subscribers. And Rhapsody a million. When Apple sold FOURTEEN MILLION incompatible iPods. Now really, if people thought rental/subscription was so attractive, wouldn’t they be signing up for these two services and purchasing compatible players?
Maybe it’s like everything else tech. Timing is key.
But, timing is crippled by licensing issues. Despite the vast plethora of material on Napster and Rhapsody many people won’t sign up because of WHAT’S NOT THERE! In an era where all your personal information is available on the Web, where you can Google potential dates, where you can find out information from the arcane to the worldly instantly, not only can you not get Led Zeppelin and the Beatles, you can’t get many obscure tracks from the past, nor key tracks on albums they DO make available. Because somehow the labels still want you to buy the CD. Shit, how backward can you BE?
But it’s not important to analyze the rental subscription services. It’s important to look at the parallel acquisition market. P2P. Sneakernet ripping. Hard drive swapping. IM. There’s no way in HELL that these can be stopped. They’re becoming EASIER! What is the major labels’ answer? Lawsuits and copy-protected discs. File-trading has INCREASED in the lawsuit era. And talk to Sony BMG about copy-protected discs. THAT was a good idea…
But it’s worse. The major labels’ paradigm is based on MTV and terrestrial radio exposure. And MTV plays no music and terrestrial radio’s listenership is declining while they play fewer and fewer songs. People are now exposed to music on the INTERNET and satellite radio. So what do the major labels do? Try to stop Internet radio and ask for more money from satellite. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.
Let’s say you’re a FAN of a major label band.
You can’t put their music on YOUR Website. You don’t have PERMISSION!
But new era acts say P2P is fine, put the songs ANYWHERE, because they know this is now how you get the word out. That the odds of music being heard the traditional way is low. And you have articles like "The Long Tail" saying that selling of less than platinum material is VERY profitable, that there’s a demand for EVERYTHING!
But the majors sign fewer and fewer acts. And tightly control distribution of said acts. When, if they were smart, they would be signing EVERY ACT! Yes, all those acts putting out records themselves, they should have a major label deal. But the majors won’t do this. Because they’d have to change their contracts. To pay less in advance and give more in return upon sales. And THIS ISN’T HOW THEY DO IT! So they keep signing wannabe superstars for big bucks and spend a fortune marketing them. Talk to a major label A&R guy. He signs almost nothing and he wants it to go gold IMMEDIATELY! And, if something only sells a couple of hundred thousand copies, IT’S DROPPED! That’s the FUTURE! In the future, 200,000 copies will be BEYOND respectable! And they’re ceding the business to NEW OPERATORS!
Don’t tell me about the iTunes Music Store. If that CD replacement paradigm worked, those two students at Loyola Marymount would have paid $5,000 and $4,000 to put music on their computers. Yeah, that’s gonna happen.
We’ve been talking for YEARS about the major labels’ war on P2P. But that’s been the wrong perspective. It SHOULD be the Internet’s war on the major labels’ business model.
The tide has been turned. The major labels have started to slide into irrelevancy and marginalization. They’re irrelevant because in trying to placate what they believe to be the mainstream, they’re creating blander and more irrelevant two-dimensional crap that most people can’t relate to. And they’re becoming marginalized because they’re not selling their wares in a way the public wants to consume them.
I see no indication that the majors are changing course.
It’s utterly astounding. They’re running their business into the ground.
It may already be too late. They’ve allowed upstarts to get a toehold. True fans now believe if it’s on a major label it sucks, only indie stuff is good. The mainstream press respects indie stuff. Indies use the new marketing tools. Majors try to put a drag on new systems. The majors are heading towards becoming licensing houses. Sure, there will be a demand for their catalog, but their new music departments… They may only survive to purvey mainstream tripe. Even Sears became marginalized, downsized and finally had to sell out.
Isn’t ANYBODY in the rarefied air of the major label executive suite aware of this movie? It’s not like they don’t have a projector. It’s called a computer screen. Just forgo lunch and turn it on. You’ll be horrified and excited. THAT’S why you should download P2P and swap hard drives and read pitchforkmedia.com. Because you’ll see how the rest of the world thinks and acts. And hopefully realize YOU’RE COMPLETELY OUT OF TOUCH AND YOUR BUSINESS IS THREATENED!
