“UNEVEN CASH FLOW  – Fans of huge rock band left fuming as tickets for stadium show are slashed by 50% after poor sales”: https://t.ly/hCCx2

But it’s not only Pearl Jam, a thirty year old band, but newbie star Noah Kahan too:

“Noah Kahan pit tickets tonight in San Diego down $120 from yesterday. Lower Pavilion down $60. Why are you still buying tickets early? #PaysToWait”: https://t.ly/-FLNe

The music business has historically been opaque. They say one thing when the truth is another. They’ll tell you they’re adding shows because the previous ones are sold out, so you buy extra tickets to scalp, but you end up finding out they lied, the previous show was not sold out, and you can’t lay off your tickets at anywhere near face value, if at all.

But the landscape is changing. Because of information.

Let’s start with the blue dots. The Ticketmaster site is a plethora of information. You can see what tickets are still available, which ones are for resale, and when J.Lo canceled her tour no one believed it, because there were seas of blue dots all over Ticketmaster.

But that’s not all. Now we have Twitter sites that give you this information and more. I recommend you follow @underfacevalue and Ticket_Help2022 The insiders do, X provides this information.

So all we’ve been hearing about is ticket prices are artificially high because of Ticketmaster, no one in government speaks of supply and demand, but when it comes to restaurants…

You might not be following the kerfuffle. People are scalping restaurant reservations in New York. So they passed a law to try and eliminate this:

“Why NYC’s Hottest Dining Reservations Will Stay Impossible to Score – A proposed law aimed at bots and scalpers who cater to rich and desperate restaurant fans isn’t guaranteed to make getting a hot table easier.”

Free link: https://t.ly/dCZaA

I love this Bloomberg headline, because it’s exactly what insiders know about concert tickets and everyone in the government seems not to. The problem isn’t Ticketmaster, the problem is SUPPLY AND DEMAND!

If you read this article you’ll find that the average spend for dinner at these restaurants is $100 to $150. But when musical artists charge the same thing people go NUTS! The same boomers complaining about Springsteen ticket prices have no problem dropping these amounts for dinner. What gives? Each is an evanescent experience, and a concert might be once in a lifetime, the band might never come back to your town, you might never ever be able to see them again!

But no one is cracking down on concert ticket scalping, because the scalpers have too strong a lobby, they’re organized, whereas the restaurant reservation business is a nascent one.

Rising Brown junior Alex Eisler made 100k selling restaurant reservations putting in only half an hour to two hours a day. Nature abhors a vacuum. Which is why we have restaurant reservation scalpers, and concert ticket scalpers. You’d think acts would charge what the ticket is worth, but no, they’re afraid of being judged, WHY?

As for Pearl Jam… The band broke in the nineties. Their hard core fans are Gen-X’ers, now in their fifties. They have the money, but ironically they’re the ones who think twice about paying it.

But we can argue that Pearl Jam is more of an American act.

But we can say the promoter misjudged the market. That’s what happened with the Black Keys and J.Lo. What happened yesterday does not apply to today.

Yesterday, every show sold out. Demand was through the roof. Why not charge more, otherwise the scalpers will reap the benefit of the spread.

But it turns out the customer is saying no. This is the same customer who despite hearing ad infinitum how the economy is going great, finds food and other costs much more expensive.

They’re holding on to their dollars.

So what we are seeing is a price correction, in front of our very eyes. And the public is aware of this. And no one, NO ONE, likes finding out the person right next to them paid less for what they bought. We’ve learned to accept this with airlines, but the end result is everybody hates the airlines, who’ve rigged the system by consolidation and lack of competition on routes. This is Napster waiting to happen. And in reality, airline prices are coming down too. That post-Covid mania has expired.

So what sells?

Well, Noah Kahan is a breakthrough artist. But how many people has he actually broken through to? This is not an MTV act from the eighties. Most people don’t even know his name. And in reality, despite being in the marketplace for a number of years, he’s seen as a new act, and people are wondering if it’s worth it to lay down all this dough.

And if you’re running on fumes, out playing your greatest hits…

Well, hopefully you’re doing it at the shed, where the promoter has other streams of revenue besides tickets, where there is oftentimes a cheap lawn, because if you put up your show at the arena, GOOD LUCK!

But Taylor Swift shows sold out and parents couldn’t buy their kids tickets so someone must be at fault.

The truth is Swift was a genius. She put up all her U.S. tickets at once to create mania to guarantee she went clean. Yes, the dirty little secret of the previous tour was she didn’t sell every ticket. But when you get caught up in the maelstrom…you don’t want to be left out. And never underestimate the power of parents. They’re vicious when it comes to delivering what their kids want.

So what happens now?

Interesting question.

As for the universal boomer bands… They’re close to the end, so everybody is truly wondering whether it’s the last time. However, people have been speculating on the last time for years now. But, these bands have been going out at astronomical prices for a long time, so the public is used to it, and they are genuine superstars.

How many acts of the last fifteen years have reached this status, where everybody in America knows their tunes? Absolutely no one. Period. However, there are more people in America than ever before, and music is a unique visceral experience in a world where we all own the same devices. So it’s a large cult audience and… No one goes to one of these shows on a whim, they’re just too expensive.

And why do they keep canceling festivals? Are they too expensive or is the lineup not attractive enough or both?

And sometimes you can lower the prices and people still don’t want to come.

So if you’re planning a tour now… The data is just coming in. You could put up shows and do lousy business or put up shows and sell out and wish you played bigger buildings at higher prices.

And where is the government on this? Nowhere to be seen.

We are seeing a correction. The good old days are behind us. Are there new good days to come?

Well, we thought when the classic acts passed that everybody would be playing smaller buildings, but there are more stadium shows than ever before. Audiences are narrower, but they are very deep.

So here you find the essence of concert promotion. Nothing is guaranteed, it’s a bet. AI ain’t gonna tell you, data only means so much, it’s a gut decision, and great music hits you in the same way, the gut.

But the bottom line is people don’t want to pay as much as they’ve been paying for the past two years to see most acts. How much of this is the act, how much of this is the economy, how much of this is music’s place in the landscape?

Let’s ask the government. Ha!