Do people trust Amazon more than Apple?

We’re gonna find out.

The rap on Apple Music was it was going to win because of trust and credit card numbers. People believed in Apple and it was one click shopping.

Then again, Steve Jobs licensed that technology from Amazon. And with Steve Jobs gone, I trust Jeff Bezos. I never talk to Siri, but I converse with Alexa all the time.

So, the scoop is you can stream all the music for $7.99 a month or $79 a year, assuming you’re a Prime member, and estimates put that at 54 million in the U.S. Amazon has more Prime customers than not. And, they’re paying. Apple might have credit card numbers, but Amazon has the cash. And Prime is addictive, once you buy in, you buy regularly, for that two day shipping, to earn your money back. Will Amazon win in music?

Not at first.

But the target here is Apple, not Spotify. You go for the low hanging fruit. Apple put Rdio out of business, put a dent in the growth of Deezer, as for Tidal…the tide has yet to come in, those musicians at that press conference are out to sea and no one’s throwing them a life preserver. If you’re too anxious to go with the upstart Spotify, Amazon is a safe choice.

But you still have to pay. That’s a big barrier to climb over. But if you are gonna pay…

But music is in Apple’s DNA!

Does anybody use an iPod anymore? Music is fluid, ever-changing, and saying Apple is about music is denying it’s the iPhone company.

But now the price war has begun. Ten bucks a month is too much. Most people never spent $120 a year on music. And the dirty little secret is many people are not paying ten bucks a month anyway, they’re on discount subscriptions.

We’re in search of a relevant price point that will bring everybody on board. Just like with mobile phones, there’s a tipping point, when people say yes.

But baking services into cell phone contracts didn’t juice adoption significantly.

So maybe this is a great big dud. After all, Spotify has a free tier. You can try before you buy. It’s like crack, you get addicted. And the history of the internet is he who gains traction first and sustains it…

Wins.

Amazon may just be too late. Like with downloads. They sold ’em, but Apple had too much traction, never mind the convenience factor.

Will the software work?

No matter what anybody says, Samsung’s reputation just took a hit. Recall a device once and I cut you a break, twice and I think you’re inept. We expect everything to work right, right out of the box. Will Amazon Music Unlimited’s app do so?

We’ll see!

Amazon failed with the Fire phone.

And my Kindle is a bug-ridden device. Underpowered and frustrating. Apple may have lost a step, but it’s still much better than its competitors.

But one thing we do know is streaming is here to stay. That’s the most significant element of this announcement, the endorsement of streaming. Everybody’s gonna get the memo. That’s right, there are still people on the sidelines who think downloads are best, never mind CDs, they don’t know how streaming apps work, the synching of playlists.

But now that Amazon’s in the game…

Spotify’s got too big a head start. They operate around the world. And they keep innovating. And it’s all they do. Look at what they did with the Echo Nest, there are only a limited number of players in the space.

Apple thought it could win through marketing.

Amazon thinks it can win through name recognition and price.

Spotify is winning on tech, usability…

Then again, Sony lost the VCR wars, Beta was better than VHS but the latter was cheaper.

And now Amazon is cheaper. Never underestimate the price sensitivity of a consumer, especially when the competitor is so well trusted.

Then again, can Spotify match the price?

This is all good for the music industry. Happy days are here again. You can get all the music for one low price a month, there’s a mania about music that’s been absent for far too long, it’s about time we stole the thunder from Netflix.

But you can’t get everything at Netflix.

You can get everything at Amazon, Apple, Deezer, Napster…

One service will be triumphant, because of social, you go where your friends are. Amazon has made its move.

A better move would have been to buy Spotify, then it would be game over.

Who’s got the courage to buy Spotify and win?

Google? Red has got no traction. It bought YouTube, can’t it buy Spotify?

Or how about Apple buying the service, eliminating its bug-ridden crap app. There might be antitrust issues, but we’d have a clear winner.

Price comes first.

Assuming there’s usability.

Then comes social.

These are huge thresholds. With huge implications if you succeed or fail. Apple has been hurt by failing out of the box, it’s like someone who showed up late in crummy clothes asking for a second date.

People are already dating Amazon, that’s what makes it so fascinating.

The future is here.

And it’s so bright, you gotta wear shades.