Who’s gonna win the Grammy?

I don’t give a shit.

To think that the Grammys mean anything is to misunderstand the impact of the show. Your appearance could impact your career, a victory is barely more than meaningless. Come on, who won last year? The year before?

So I don’t get caught up in the Grammy run-up. It’s manufactured hype for an organization that needs to sell a TV show and a media that fawns over everything involving personalities/stars, and moves on the very next day.

And while I’m at it, why is LL Cool J the host? The faded rapper has the stage presence of a gnat and the charisma of a doorknob. Couldn’t they get someone with a personality, like Kevin Hart? Who could at least crack a few jokes between making fun of the lines he must read from the teleprompter?

But that’s what the Grammys are all about, playing it safe. If risk was involved, they’d be hosted by Katt Williams and there’d be GoPros backstage documenting the acts shooting up.

Furthermore, only with hindsight can we see what matters. Tom Waits matters more than almost everybody who won in his heyday of the mid to late seventies, and he’s still making notable music today. Then again, unlike everybody else from his generation, never mind those wet behind the ears, he’s not on the endorsement/sponsorship gravy train, begging corporations to sell out. Yes, they should have a trade show astride the awards show, wherein the acts flog themselves to the highest bidder.

But if Mark Cuban asks me to appear on his network…I’m gonna. Because this is a relationship business and Mark returns e-mails in a minute and is always lifting rocks to see what’s next. Imagine if he ran the Grammys, the man who gave the middle finger to the NBA…

So I drive downtown, get in the makeup chair and when the camera starts to roll, I’m a bloviating fool. I’m second-guessing the situation, trying to figure out who will win while stating who should.

But on the end of the dais is a guy from Pittsburgh who couldn’t be less rock and roll if he got a neck tattoo, and by the end of the program he’d convinced me he was right.

This was John Dick. Of CivicScience. A polling firm.

And he wasn’t borderline autistic, like Nate Silver. He radiated no nerd cred. And he kept talking about the numbers to the point where I had to get into it with him, WHO CARES WHAT THE PUBLIC HAS TO SAY!

And then Mr. Dick explained his methodology.

He trolls for people on PerezHilton. He gets them to answer the question of the day, and then places a cookie on their computer, tracking them as they move about the web. Sounds scary, doesn’t it? Welcome to the twenty first century!

But what Mr. Dick and his team of Carnegie Mellon technicians is looking for is…the ability of those he tracks to get it right. That’s the science. And last year he predicted five out of the six big Grammy winners. He was eighty percent at the Oscars. And before Nate Silver and the 2012 election, I’d pooh-pooh Mr. Dick and his numbers, but the geeks have inherited the earth and gut reactions might feel good, but can be totally wrong.

Don’t get me wrong, the gut is key to art. And research will tell you where you’ve been as opposed to where you’re going. But if you want to play the game as opposed to just pontificating, today you have to look at the numbers.

It got to the point where I was less interested in what I had to say than Mr. Dick’s conclusions.

And here they are:

Best New Artist: Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance: “Blurred Lines”

Best Rap Album: Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

Best Rock Album: Kings Of Leon

Best Country Album: Taylor Swift

Song of the Year: “Royals”

Record of the Year: “Royals”

Album of the Year: Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

Now if “Royals” wins, I’ll be thrilled. Kind of like when “Annie Hall” won Best Picture, Lorde DESERVES IT!

But now I’m speaking from personal opinion, and emotion. Science?

There are rules as to who can vote for what.

But while I’m busy handicapping, Mr. Dick is being cold and calculating. And if you’re interested in who’s gonna win, and as I stated above, I’m not, then…what he says counts.

We’ll see on Sunday night.

I disagreed with so many of his predictions. But the more he delineated his methodology, the more I became convinced. Because unlike so many Americans, never mind people in the music business, I believe in science. And data.

And so does Mark Cuban.

That’s right, while the rest of the Grammy penumbra is just regurgitating the inane hype, Mr. Cuban decided to go left field, to produce a whole show demonstrating that data delivers.

And if it does…

Expect this to become a big part of the story next year.

Neil Portnow will wake up and embrace it. If he’s smart. Because we’re more interested in the line than who’s really gonna win.

So we see the wheel turn once again. We see those who are educated and willing to take risks employing a new perspective and triumphing.

And you’ve got people like me speaking from the gut, wondering…am I wrong?

P.S. Here are a couple of clips. My makeup makes me look like I’m from Mars, having been too heavily irradiated by the sun. And I don’t think I give a revelatory performance, but if you want to see me in action, here I am:

“Who Should Win the GRAMMY for Best Rap Album of the Year?”

“Who Should Win the GRAMMY for Best Country Album?”