Warner Shake-Up
This is not today’s big news.
The big story today is John Mayer leaving Twitter.
I was stuck in a traffic jam of epic proportions this morning. I was gridlocked in the hills in excess of an hour, barely crawling on Mulholland, what was happening?
I tuned in the Sirius XM traffic report.
Nothing.
I tuned in the local AM news stations.
Nothing.
I searched on Twitter and found out there was a fire in Benedict Canyon.
Today we get our information from one another. Our news is personalized. The only way to be successful today is to create a phenomenal product that members of the public embrace and spread to their friends.
Hype a crappy product and you might get some old wave press, but you won’t make any money.
So now, more than ever in the history of recorded music, THE MUSIC is most important.
Used to be the key was distribution. If no one could buy your music, it couldn’t succeed. Major labels controlled physical distribution. You might be able to ship to an indie retail outlet, but try getting paid without a steady stream of product. A hit could put you out of business, and did.
Now anybody can distribute on iTunes via a small fee to Tunecore. So there is no major label distribution advantage.
As for marketing…Â Labels have less to spend and it’s harder to get the message out.
Sure, it takes money to make it. But you can record for peanuts and the money to build you doesn’t have to come from a label, hell, it could come from Coran Capshaw and his Red Light empire. Or a fat cat uncle. Or…
So the major label advantage means less than ever. Which is quite a turnaround from the 1990’s, when inflated CD prices and MTV airplay rained down revenue.
Tom Whalley was an excellent traffic cop. He knew history. But did he know the future?
NOBODY KNOWS THE FUTURE!
But Lyor and the Atlantic team are trying to invent it.
I know, it seems like Lyor’s running a cult. But only Lyor and his team are trying new things.
There’s no innovation at Sony. None.
EMI is dormant.
And Universal is so old school as to still believe in one room education. Hell, at Universal it’s all about the records, but it’s like the Internet doesn’t exist. Other than the money-draining Vevo, Universal’s unprepared for the digital future. They just want to go back to the past. But the past is never going to return.
The history of creative people running record companies is not good. But that was back when you needed someone to oversee all departments. To not only wine and dine the performers, but supervise distribution and radio promotion and marketing.
Now, radio promotion and marketing mean less than ever before. You need someone who can speak music to musicians and can help them make great albums.
Rick Rubin is a great producer who could never make his own label truly work. But if Rick Rubin were smart, he’d stop making those albums for someone else and start his own company. So many of the acts he works with are no longer under contract. If the Eagles could sell millions of albums with a virtual record company staffed by essentially no one other than Irving Azoff and Larry Solters, imagine how well Rick could do with Rubin Records. Does he really need Columbia?
Or, to put it another way, does Weezer really need Interscope?
Weezer made a deal with an indie. Sometimes it’s cheaper to outsource functions. But I’m sure the band is making a lot more per record than it did with Interscope. Meanwhile, to the untrained eye, there’s no difference, "Hurley"’s media presence is quite significant.
Whalley was not Lyor’s guy. He had to go. Whalley tried to stand up to Lyor the way Mo tried to stand up to Morgado. But in the nineties, the empire was not under siege. Now there’s only a shadow of an empire left.
It’s now about 360 deals and marketing partnerships and…
Todd Moscowitz and Livia Tortella learned the ropes under Lyor. They’re full-fledged members of the cult. They’re gonna do the dirty work for Rob Cavallo.
Cavallo’s just got to deliver hits.
And he’s got an incredible track record.
Can he work his magic on acts he doesn’t spend months in the studio with?
We’ll see.
But today’s executive changes are not seismic. They’re a drop in the bucket. The manager is king today. And you don’t need a label. Everything’s up for grabs. And Warner Music wants to ensure its place in the future firmament.
As for Whalley… Only he can determine whether he’s done. Whether he wants to reinvent himself or stay home and play.
But if he wants to continue working in music, reinvention is key. The old label President doesn’t even exist anymore. Hell, look at Atlantic. Craig nurtures the music, Julie sells it. Maybe these are two inherently different jobs, like playing baseball or managing the team, like writing software or building hardware. Cavallo nurtures the music, Moscowitz and Tortella sell it.
Diarmuid Quinn could have sold it too. Alas, he was Whalley’s guy. He hadn’t drunk Lyor’s kool-aid. His experience could pay dividends. His experience can help someone else. But Diarmuid was never a studio guy.
The power of the studio guys is returning.
Ahmet was a studio guy.
Sam Phillips too.
Meanwhile, the acts are on their own. You’ve got to not only make the music but maintain contact with your fans. No label can tweet for John Mayer, no one can create the message and the bond.
Historically, Mayer’s been ahead of the curve. Maybe he’s still licking his wounds from the "Playboy" interview. We’ll have to wait and see.
But know that you’ve got to create great music and utilize the new tools to maintain your relationship with your fans and hope they spread the word.
Fans create buzz, not labels.
There’s enough money for acts to survive, possibly make good livings.
There’s not enough money for everybody to get rich.
Welcome to the new music business.
