Hits Are Lucky Accidents

Like any good manager, Dave Frey confronted Jerry Moss, shouldn’t the label work one more single off the Blues Traveler album?

Jerry said no.  He said it was time to go back into the studio and make another record.  And that hits were lucky accidents.

So the band did as Jerry said.  They recorded a new LP.  And nothing caught fire from this record either.  And after the same conversation with Jerry, with Dave protesting that they should continue to work the record and Mr. Moss saying it was done and they should cut another, a deejay in Pennsylvania flipped over a stiff single and started playing "Run-Around".

And the rest is history.

The single spread across the country.  To the south and then west.  A video became ubiquitous on MTV.  And now, in a brand new century, Blues Traveler can still tour off this one track.  Then again, it’s not only one track.  The band made music before and after, they’ve got a whole catalog, that’s paying dividends long after their time in the media spotlight is done.

I’m getting e-mail protesting that Muse made it because they’re Stephenie Meyer’s favorite band, they were on the "Twilight" soundtrack. I could tell you this was already deep into the act’s career, and that Muse was doing terrific live business before this soundtrack inclusion, but the point is, the inclusion in the soundtrack was a lucky accident.

Sure, the band and its handlers hoped the inclusion would pay dividends.  But they didn’t KNOW!

What’s that famous William Goldman quote about Hollywood, "Nobody knows anything?"  Whether you agree with this or not, the point is nothing is guaranteed, that in between marketers and the public a lot can go haywire, there are frequently short circuits.  So the key is to be in the game long enough that a lucky accident can HAPPEN!

Believe me, if Muse was a brand new band, their odds of being in the "Twilight" soundtrack would be greatly reduced.  Stephenie Meyer wouldn’t know them yet and the releasing label would probably prefer a different neophyte band to promote.  Furthermore, it’s not like the "Twilight" soundtrack was "The Bodyguard".  It sold a fraction of what previous soundtracks moved.  Let’s just say the soundtrack inclusion was icing on the cake.  Let’s just say if you’re in the game, opportunities arise.

While you’re concentrating on making THE single, while you’re looking for THE product endorsement, real bands are just slugging it out, and fielding opportunities more than manipulating.  Because usually, the manipulation doesn’t work!  No one comes to see you at the bottom of the bill, opening for that big hit act playing a different kind of music.  Or you get in an iPod commercial, they bang your song and you’re forgotten thereafter.  Isn’t that the point?  If you’re brand new, broken by Apple, you’re seen as flavor of the moment, you evaporate with the campaign.  Where do we start?  Jet.  The Ting Tings.  Feist?  The road is littered with acts who got Apple play who’ve bitten the dust or become footnotes.

Scroll down and see how few of the unknown bands who did iPod ads have significant traction today: iPod advertising

The Apple campaign isn’t the end all and the be all, it’s just part of the slog.  Like with Coldplay.  It helped promote them when they needed an injection, but most people have probably forgotten the band’s song "Viva la Vida" was involved in an iPod campaign.

You want it to be easy.  You want it to be about anything but the music.  You want it to be controllable.  It’s not.  It takes a ton of hard work.  And if you’re good, and you’re lucky, you might break.  And usually it won’t be the opportunity you think will put you over, you might even say no at first.  Then, you’re sitting at home and suddenly the whole world knows who you are.

Well, maybe not the whole world, not anymore, but more people than before.  You want the hit to be the incremental icing, not the foundation.  You’ve got to be in the game long enough to establish this foundation and field enough opportunities for one to pay off.

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  1. […] Lefsetz Letter » Blog Archive » Hits Are Lucky Accidents lefsetz.com/wordpress/index.php/archives/2010/05/02/hits-are-lucky-accidents – view page – cached Like any good manager, Dave Frey confronted Jerry Moss, shouldn’t the label work one more single off the Blues Traveler album? Tweets about this link Topsy.Data.Twitter.User[‘mikecane’] = {“location”:”Satan Island, NY”,”photo”:”http://a1.twimg.com/profile_images/592294826/R2_normal.JPG”,”url”:”http://twitter.com/mikecane”,”name”:”Mike Cane”,”nick”:”mikecane”,”description”:”Writer, digital book militant”,”influence”:”Highly Influential”}; mikecaneHighly Influential: “Thanks god! @lefsetz has blogged to clear my mind of comics! http://tinyurl.com/294p8yf ” 23 minutes ago view tweet retweet Topsy.Data.Twitter.User[‘mrlofthus’] = {“location”:”Oslo, Norway”,”photo”:”http://a1.twimg.com/profile_images/766016942/2762_web__normal.jpg”,”url”:”http://twitter.com/mrlofthus”,”name”:”Kai Lofthus”,”nick”:”mrlofthus”,”description”:”Dig Music is an HR company, focused on motivation and creativity to grow human capital and productivity. You’ve got the music in you!”,”influence”:””}; mrlofthus: “Lefsetz about artist development: Hits Are Lucky Accidents http://ow.ly/1FXNe ” 1 hour ago view tweet retweet Filter tweets […]

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  3. Pingback by Musings on Muse « Music That Matters | 2010/05/05 at 06:21:15

    […] Lefsetz mentioned them recently, click here to hear his take on the Muse […]


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  1. […] Lefsetz Letter » Blog Archive » Hits Are Lucky Accidents lefsetz.com/wordpress/index.php/archives/2010/05/02/hits-are-lucky-accidents – view page – cached Like any good manager, Dave Frey confronted Jerry Moss, shouldn’t the label work one more single off the Blues Traveler album? Tweets about this link Topsy.Data.Twitter.User[‘mikecane’] = {“location”:”Satan Island, NY”,”photo”:”http://a1.twimg.com/profile_images/592294826/R2_normal.JPG”,”url”:”http://twitter.com/mikecane”,”name”:”Mike Cane”,”nick”:”mikecane”,”description”:”Writer, digital book militant”,”influence”:”Highly Influential”}; mikecaneHighly Influential: “Thanks god! @lefsetz has blogged to clear my mind of comics! http://tinyurl.com/294p8yf ” 23 minutes ago view tweet retweet Topsy.Data.Twitter.User[‘mrlofthus’] = {“location”:”Oslo, Norway”,”photo”:”http://a1.twimg.com/profile_images/766016942/2762_web__normal.jpg”,”url”:”http://twitter.com/mrlofthus”,”name”:”Kai Lofthus”,”nick”:”mrlofthus”,”description”:”Dig Music is an HR company, focused on motivation and creativity to grow human capital and productivity. You’ve got the music in you!”,”influence”:””}; mrlofthus: “Lefsetz about artist development: Hits Are Lucky Accidents http://ow.ly/1FXNe ” 1 hour ago view tweet retweet Filter tweets […]

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    1. Pingback by Musings on Muse « Music That Matters | 2010/05/05 at 06:21:15

      […] Lefsetz mentioned them recently, click here to hear his take on the Muse […]

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