The new rap or the new hula-hoop?

The flurry of "Rock Band"/"Guitar Hero" announcements has my head spinning. What with Aerosmith releasing their own game for the latter platform and Guns N’ Roses releasing their new single on the former, one would think the videogames are the new radio/MTV/retail store combined! Actually, that’s what Activision, maker of "Guitar Hero", wants, to become the new sales platform, to put a dent in iTunes.

But, I want to let you in on a dirty little secret. They’re GAMES! Not playing music, barely a facsimile, RB/GH are about hitting controllers to rack up points. Genius conception, but what’s the lifespan?

Iterations of Mario have lasted forever. But Pac Man/Ms. Pac Man finally bit the dust. Four years from now, will kids be standing in front of their flat screens flicking the levers on plastic guitars or…will they be playing something different?

One thing you know about the music industry… It can’t get enough of a good thing. If it finds something successful, it runs it into the ground.

GH Aerosmith is the first in. After that, is it just too late?

Instinct would say we’re zeroing in on the final hurrah, Christmas ’08. After that, there should be a decline, that falls off steeply in the second half of next year, if not just a few months after Christmas. Sure, those who just got the memo will play, but there are always individuals behind the curve, you don’t want to predicate your business model on them.

Or are RB/GH the new rap? Seen as a fad. Seen as over once "Yo! MTV Raps" was cancelled, hip-hop not only didn’t die when it should have according to the rockers, back in 1990, but has only decined in sales in the last two years. That’s a pretty good run, two decades.

So, are RB and GH a whole new paradigm, a window to a whole new business?

Hogwash.

People don’t really want to learn how to play instruments, it’s too damn hard. So GH’s focus on this in the future is ridiculous.

Some games last forever, like Hearts and Bridge. Even Monopoly. But they’re cheap compared to RB and GH. If a new edition featuring a different band was ten or twenty bucks, that’d be one thing. But, the music industry, along with the gaming industry, wants to rape the customer!

Don’t look for answers in the business press. They only focus on money. Look at the gamers. For many, "Rock Band" was last Christmas, they’re now playing something different. Will they give it another go this holiday? Maybe. But, I don’t see extreme longevity.

But the music business is just waking up. The word "fad" has entered no reports. But I’m thinking there’s got to be a lifespan.

But Reverend Run has a TV show and Jay-Z is still on tour, so who knows!